Money & Banking

Aussie bank says good news on the way for homeowners

Bendigo Bank is forecasting four interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), including one later this month, following the release of key inflation figures that show underlying inflation has returned to the central bank’s target range for the first time in over three years. According to Bendigo Bank’s chief economist David Robertson, the RBA is expected to pivot from its primary focus on inflation to broader economic concerns such as employment and growth. “The RBA has been dealing with global inflation shock for three years, but its concerns are quickly moving from price stability and inflation to protecting growth and jobs,” Robertson said. The RBA's preferred measure of underlying inflation, the trimmed mean, fell from 3.3% to 2.9%, marking a return to the target range of 2–3% for the first time since December 2021. Headline inflation held steady at 2.4%. Robertson said the new inflation data sets the stage for a rate cut on May 20, with the only remaining uncertainty being the size of the cut. “The next cut is almost certain for May 20, but of what magnitude?” he said, suggesting a 35 basis point reduction was more likely than a larger move. “A larger 50 basis point cut in May is most unlikely unless markets become dislocated like in the GFC.” Bendigo Bank is forecasting a total of four rate cuts, including the expected May move, bringing the cash rate down to approximately 3.1% by the end of the year. Market analysts are even more aggressive, pricing in five cuts that could take the rate to around 2.8%. Despite the improved inflation outlook, global economic headwinds remain a significant concern. Robertson pointed to ongoing market volatility driven by US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and uncertainty surrounding global trade flows. “Equity markets have been clawing back some of their losses but there are still difficult times ahead,” he said. “Tariffs are generally bad for everyone but especially problematic for the country imposing them.” The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised global growth projections in light of the economic tensions, cutting its forecast for US GDP growth from 2.7% to 1.8% and China’s from 4.6% to 4%. Australia, too, has felt the impact, with the IMF reducing its 2025 growth estimate from 2.1% to 1.6%. Bendigo Bank has adjusted its own forecast accordingly, downgrading Australia’s expected growth to 2%. With inflation easing and global pressures mounting, the RBA appears poised to shift gears from restraint to support. “The environment is changing quickly,” said Robertson. “It’s time for the RBA to support the broader economy again.” Image: Bendigo Bank

Money & Banking

Older Australians are also hurting from the housing crisis. Where are the election policies to help them?

<div class="theconversation-article-body"> It would be impossible at this stage in the election campaign to be unaware that housing is a critical, potentially vote-changing, issue. But the suite of policies being proposed by the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-do-the-coalition-and-labor-plans-on-housing-differ-and-what-have-they-ignored-253337">major parties</a> largely focus on young, first home buyers. What is glaringly noticeable is the lack of measures to improve availability and affordability for older people. Modern older lives are diverse, yet older people have become too easily pigeonholed. No more so than in respect to property, where a perception has flourished that older people own more than their fair share of housing wealth. While the value of housing has no doubt increased, home <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/australias-welfare/home-ownership-and-housing-tenure#:%7E:text=The%20home%20ownership%20rate%20of,compared%20with%2036%25%20in%202021.">ownership rates</a> among people reaching retirement age has actually declined since the mid-1990s. Older people can also face <a href="https://www.anglicare.asn.au/research-advocacy/rental-affordability/">rental stress and homelessness</a> – with almost 20,000 <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/housing/estimating-homelessness-census/latest-release">homeless people</a> in Australia aged over 55. Severe housing stress is a key contributing to those homelessness figures. It’s easy to blame older Australians for causing, or exacerbating, the housing crisis. But doing so ignores the fact that right now, our housing system is badly failing many older people too. <h2>No age limits</h2> Owning a home has traditionally provided financial security for retirees, especially ones relying on the age pension. This is so much so, that home ownership is sometimes described as the “fourth pillar” of Australia’s retirement system. But housing has become more expensive – to rent or buy – for everyone. Falling rates of <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/money-in-retirement/">home ownership</a> combined with carriage of mortgage debt into retirement, restricted access to shrinking stocks of social housing, and lack of housing affordability in the private rental market have a particular impact on older people. <h2>Housing rethink</h2> Housing policy for older Australians has mostly focused on age-specific options, such as retirement villages and aged care. Taking such a limited view excludes other potential solutions from across the broader housing system that should be considered. Furthermore, not all older people want to live in a retirement village, and fewer than <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/disability/disability-ageing-and-carers-australia-summary-findings/latest-release#:%7E:text=5.5%20million%20Australians%20(21.4%25),a%20profound%20or%20severe%20disability.">5% of older people</a> live in residential aged care. During my <a href="https://www.churchilltrust.com.au/fellow/victoria-cornell-sa-2019/">Churchill Fellowship study</a> exploring alternative, affordable models of housing for older people, I discovered three cultural themes that are stopping us from having a productive conversation about housing for older people. <ul> <li> Australia’s tradition of home ownership undervalues renting and treats housing as a commodity, not a basic need. This disadvantages older renters and those on low income. </li> <li> There’s a stigma regarding welfare in Australia, which influences who is seen as “deserving” and shapes the policy responses. </li> <li> While widely encouraged, “ageing-in-place” means different things to different people. It can include formal facilities or the family home that needs modifications to make it habitable as someone ages. </li> </ul> These themes are firmly entrenched, often driven by policy narratives such as the primacy of home ownership over renting. In the past 50 years or so, many have come to view welfare, such as social housing, as a <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-reports/390">last resort</a>, and have aimed to age in their family home or move into a “desirable” retirement village. <h2>Variety is key</h2> A more flexible approach could deliver housing for older Australians that is more varied in design, cost and investment models. The promises made so far by political parties to help younger home buyers are welcome. However, the housing system is a complex beast and there is no single quick fix solution. First and foremost, a national housing and homelessness plan is required, which also involves the states and territories. The plan must include explicit consideration of housing options for older people. Funding for housing developments needs to be more flexible in terms of public-private sector investment and direct government assistance that goes beyond first home buyer incentives. <h2>International models</h2> For inspiration, we could look to Denmark, which has developed numerous <a href="https://www.spatialagency.net/database/co-housing">co-housing communities</a>. Co-housing models generally involve self-managing communities where residents have their own private, self-contained home, supported by communal facilities and spaces. They can be developed and designed by the owner or by a social housing provider. They can be age-specific or multi-generational. Funding flexibility, planning and design are key to their success. Institutional investors include <ul> <li> so-called impact investors, who seek social returns and often accept lower financial returns </li> <li> community housing providers </li> <li> member-based organisations, such as mutuals and co-operatives. </li> </ul> Government also plays a part by expediting the development process and providing new pathways to more affordable ownership and rental options. Europe is also leading the way on social housing, where cultural attitudes are different from here. In Vienna, Austria, more than 60% of residents live in 440,000 <a href="https://www.wienerwohnen.at/wiener-gemeindebau/municipal-housing-in-vienna.html">socially provided homes</a>. These homes are available for a person’s entire life, with appropriate age-related modifications permitted if required. At over 20% of the total housing stock, <a href="https://lbf.dk/om-lbf/english-the-danish-social-housing-model/">social housing</a> is also a large sector in Denmark, where the state and municipalities support the construction of non-profit housing. <h2>Overcoming stereotyes</h2> Our population is ageing rapidly, and more older people are now renting or facing housing insecurity. If policymakers continue to ignore their housing needs, even more older people will be at risk of living on the street, and as a result will suffer poor health and social isolation. Overcoming stereotypes - such as the idea that all older people are wealthy homeowners - is key to building fairer, more inclusive solutions. This isn’t just about older Australians. It’s about creating a housing system that works for everyone, at every stage of life.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/255391/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> By <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/victoria-cornell-2372746">Victoria Cornell</a>, Research Fellow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/flinders-university-972">Flinders University</a> This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/older-australians-are-also-hurting-from-the-housing-crisis-where-are-the-election-policies-to-help-them-255391">original article</a>. Image: Shutterstock </div>

Money & Banking

What every parent should read before becoming the bank of mum and dad

In late 2023, economists Jarden estimated <a style="color: #467886;" href="https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/the-bank-of-mum-and-dad-is-good-for-70-000-new-analysis-concludes-20231129-p5enpp">15 per cent of mortgage borrowers received some form of financial support</a> from their parents. A separate poll by comparison site Finder around the same time <a style="color: #467886;" href="https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/first-home-buyers-reveal-huge-amount-aussie-parents-gifted-them-201221909.html">put the figure at 11 per cent</a>. Fast forward to February this year, with a UBS survey <a style="color: #467886;" href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-06/cost-of-living-sting-lessened-by-bank-of-mum-and-dad/104882754">suggesting almost half of first home buyers receive parental assistance</a>. Clearly, the Bank of Mum and Dad is a rapidly growing source of funds for younger people seeking to purchase property. However, some older Australians are now paying a hefty price for having done so without adequate planning and protections. On the hook Amid the excitement of homebuying, many parents overlook the fact they could be left on the hook to cover any shortfall. The worst-case scenario here is losing your own home, as well as your child losing theirs, if you went guarantor on their loan and they defaulted and you didn’t have a backup plan. If you loaned them money which they subsequently can’t repay, the principal amount goes unrepaid and you also miss out on the interest/compound growth that money could have earned if invested elsewhere. You may even be asked to fork out more in future if your child needs help to keep the property or to subsequently buy a replacement property. Unlike for a real bank, there is no public bailout for the Bank of Mum and Dad. Financial shortfall A common problem that I and other financial advisors are now seeing is parents inadvertently giving their children more than they can actually afford. Take people who acted as Bank of Mum and Dad before the pandemic hit. They budgeted how much they would need for retirement and then gave their adult kids money towards buying a home of their own. Then COVID-19 arrived. Countless jobs were lost and businesses shuttered. Many would-be retirees were forced to stay in the workforce for longer than planned. Next came the inflation crisis, with mortgages and living costs soaring. Retirement budgets blew-out as more money was suddenly needed for everyday expenses, particularly energy, insurance and food. Meanwhile ballooning house prices over the pandemic years saw first homebuyers needing even larger deposits. That all translated to significant financial shortfalls for the Bank of Mum and Dad. Elder abuse <a style="color: #467886;" href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/family-domestic-and-sexual-violence/population-groups/older-people#abuse">Government figures from 2023</a> estimate one in six older Australians suffer elder abuse in some form, with 2.1 per cent experiencing financial abuse – undue control, pressure or restricted access to their own money and financial decisions. Half (53 per cent) of elder abuse perpetrators are family members, with adult children the most common offenders. Given the amount of money involved in property purchases, and the stresses associated with housing affordability, the potential for the Bank of Mum and Dad to suffer elder abuse is alarmingly high. Relationship breakdowns Money is perhaps the greatest source of tension in relationships. Usually that is between partners, yet these can multiply for the Bank of Mum and Dad and its stakeholders. Some examples include: <ul> <li>You and your partner disagree on what or how much assistance to provide.</li> <li>Your other children feel disadvantaged if they don’t receive the same financial assistance.</li> <li>Having provided the finances, you then interfere in how your child manages the property or their general finances, causing resentment to build.</li> <li>A marriage breakdown (yours or your child’s) affects the repayment of a loan or the nature of a mortgage guarantee.</li> </ul> Protect yourself While supporting children is the foremost concern of the Bank of Mum and Dad, it is important to protect yourself too. A written agreement outlining the nature of the support, conditions and contingencies is crucial to keep every aligned. Independent advice from your financial adviser, lawyer, mortgage broker and accountant ensures you fully understand what you are on the hook for, how much you can afford to contribute, and whether there are less-risky options. Finally, be sure that the decision to support your child’s property ambitions is your own and that you aren’t coerced into it. If you’re concerned that you may be experiencing elder abuse, call the free <a style="color: #467886;" href="https://www.health.gov.au/contacts/elder-abuse-phone-line">elder abuse line on 1800 353 374</a>. Helen Baker is a licensed Australian financial adviser and author of the new book, Money For Life: How to build financial security from firm foundations (Major Street Publishing $32.99). Helen is among the 1% of financial planners who hold a master’s degree in the field. Proceeds from book sales are donated to charities supporting disadvantaged women and children. Find out more at <a style="color: #467886;" title="http://www.onyourowntwofeet.com.au/" href="http://www.onyourowntwofeet.com.au/">www.onyourowntwofeet.com.au</a> Disclaimer: The information in this article is of a general nature only and does not constitute personal financial or product advice. Any opinions or views expressed are those of the authors and do not represent those of people, institutions or organisations the owner may be associated with in a professional or personal capacity unless explicitly stated. Helen Baker is an authorised representative of BPW Partners Pty Ltd AFSL 548754. Image: Shutterstock

Money & Banking

Australia has the highest gambling losses in the world. Is it time for mandatory limits?

<div class="theconversation-article-body">Gambling prevalence studies provide a snapshot of gambling behaviour, problems and harm in our communities. They are typically conducted about every five years. In some Australian states and territories, four or five have been conducted over the past 20 or so years. These have provided a snapshot into how gambling has changed – and how it has not. So, how has gambling in Australia changed in the past two decades or so, and where may we be heading? <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> Australia has the highest gambling losses in the world. Australia should: 🚫 Ban gambling ads 🎰 Introduce loss limits on pokies and online gambling 📉 Progressively cut the number of pokies in each state Our new report shows how governments should prevent gambling harm.… <a href="https://t.co/7U3IgzOLSp">pic.twitter.com/7U3IgzOLSp</a> — Grattan Institute (@GrattanInst) <a href="https://twitter.com/GrattanInst/status/1831297414080176469?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 4, 2024</a></blockquote> <h2>The intensification of gambling</h2> In 1997-98, the Productivity Commission found <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/gambling/report/summary.pdf">about 82% of Australians</a> had gambled in the previous 12 months. Almost all further prevalence studies show the proportion of adults gambling has declined substantially over time. The <a href="https://www.gambleaware.nsw.gov.au/resources-and-education/check-out-our-research/published-research/nsw-gambling-survey-2024">2024 NSW prevalence survey</a>, for example, found 54% reported gambling in the previous 12 months, down from 69% in 2006. While fewer people are gambling, the proportion of people experiencing problems has not changed much, <a href="https://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/statistics/theme/society/gambling/australian-gambling-statistics">nor has gambling turnover</a>. In some states, gambling turnover has increased, even when you take inflation into account. So while a smaller proportion of people are gambling, those who do gamble are doing so more frequently, and spend more money – a phenomenon we have described as the “intensification” of the industry. As figures from the Grattan Institute show, the vast majority of gambling spend comes from a very small proportion of people who gamble. <iframe id="Z6EYJ" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: 0;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Z6EYJ/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe> <h2>What’s the problem?</h2> Typically, the focus in gambling studies has been on “problem gamblers”, a term we now avoid because it can be stigmatising. This refers to those experiencing severe problems due to their gambling, which is typically <a href="https://www.justice.vic.gov.au/justice-system/safer-communities/gambling/victorian-population-gambling-and-health-study-2023">about 1% of the adult population</a>, and around 2% of people who gamble. This doesn’t sound like much, until you remember 1% of adults in Australia is more than 200,000 people. That’s a lot of people struggling with severe problems. Based on recent prevalence surveys in Australia, these gamblers spend <a href="https://www.gambleaware.nsw.gov.au/resources-and-education/check-out-our-research/published-research/nsw-gambling-survey-2024">about 60 times as much</a> as people who do not experience problems. However, that’s just the most severe cases. <h2>How gambling harms people</h2> When most people think of gambling harm, they think about financial harm. But gambling can cause problems with relationships, work and study, emotional and psychological harm, and <a href="https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-016-2747-0">even cause health issues</a>. Some degree of gambling harm is experienced by <a href="https://www.gambleaware.nsw.gov.au/resources-and-education/check-out-our-research/published-research/nsw-gambling-survey-2024">around 10-15%</a> of people who gamble. Some groups are overrepresented: young men typically experience very high levels of harm compared to others. Other overrepresented groups are: <ul> <li>those who have not completed tertiary education</li> <li>people who speak a language other than English</li> <li>people who identify as Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander.</li> </ul> Harm isn’t just experienced by people who gamble, though – it impacts the people around them. While young men are more likely to experience harm from their own gambling, <a href="https://www.gambleaware.nsw.gov.au/resources-and-education/check-out-our-research/published-research/nsw-gambling-survey-2024">women, particularly young women</a>, are most likely to experience harm from someone else’s gambling. When we take all of these sources of harm into account, we get a much better picture of gambling harm in our community: <a href="https://www.gambleaware.nsw.gov.au/resources-and-education/check-out-our-research/published-research/nsw-gambling-survey-2024">around 15-20% of all adults</a> (not all gamblers) experience harm. That’s very different to the figure of 1% we’ve focused on in the past. We’re still missing some accounting, though: we don’t know how much harm is experienced by people under 18, for example, because prevalence studies typically only include adults. <h2>Where does the harm come from?</h2> The most problematic form in Australia is pokies, responsible for <a href="https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10260219/#:%7E:text=EGMs%20are%20responsible%20for%2051,problems%20due%20to%20low%20participation.">about 51-57% of problems</a>. Casinos are responsible for <a href="https://ftp.justice.vic.gov.au/justice-system/safer-communities/gambling/victorian-population-gambling-and-health-study-2023">another 10-14%</a>, although fewer people have been gambling in casino games in recent years. Sports betting and race betting together account for about another 19-20% of harm. Between them, pokies, casino games and sports and race betting account for about 90% of harm to Australian gamblers. <iframe id="w2wEY" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: 0;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/w2wEY/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe> <h2>Availability is an issue</h2> This widespread availability of pokies is the biggest single driver behind gambling harm in Australia. <iframe id="hIgeD" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: 0;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/hIgeD/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe> In other countries, pokies are limited to venues that are specifically used for gambling, like casinos or betting shops. We have pokies in a huge number of our pubs and clubs, except in Western Australia. A couple of years ago, we used national prevalence data to compare gambling problems in WA <a href="https://akjournals.com/view/journals/2006/12/3/article-p721.xml">to the rest of the country</a>. A higher percentage of adults in WA gamble, but mostly on the lotteries which are typically <a href="https://theconversation.com/pokies-lotto-sports-betting-which-forms-of-problem-gambling-affect-australians-the-most-240665">not associated with much harm</a>. Gambling on pokies is far less prevalent in WA because they’re only available in one casino. Gambling problems and harm are about one-third lower in WA, and our analysis shows this can be attributed to the limited access to pokies. This also tells us something important. If pokies are not available, people will typically not substitute them with other harmful forms. It points to the role of the availability of dangerous gambling products in gambling harm, rather than personal characteristics. Online gambling has also become a lot more available. Most of us now have a mobile phone almost surgically implanted onto our hand, making online gambling more accessible than ever. Not surprisingly, <a href="https://www.gamblingresearch.org.au/publications/second-national-study-interactive-gambling-australia-2019-20">online gambling continues to increase</a>. <h2>An obvious solution to try</h2> Governments have taken increasingly proactive measures to help address gambling harm, such as the <a href="https://www.dss.gov.au/gambling/resource/national-consumer-protection-framework-online-wagering-national-policy-statement">National Consumer Protection Framework for Online Gambling</a>, strategies for minimising harm such as NSW’s investment into <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/media-releases/gambleaware-week-0">gambling harm minimisation</a>, Victoria’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/nov/26/victoria-pokies-changes-limits-new-laws">proposed reforms on pokies</a> including mandatory precommitment limits, Queensland’s <a href="https://www.publications.qld.gov.au/dataset/gambling-harm-min/resource/84d444db-97e0-4be0-8e87-0c6f0cb412d6">Gambling Harm Minimisation Plan</a> and the ACT’s <a href="https://www.gamblingandracing.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/1436580/Strategy-for-gambling-harm-prevention.pdf">Strategy for Gambling Harm Prevention</a>. Voluntary limits have been trialled to help people keep their gambling under control, but have had <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-03/nsw-government-cashless-gaming-trial-findings-released/104679384">virtually no uptake</a>. For example, the recent <a href="https://www.liquorandgaming.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0018/1340136/evaluation-of-the-nsw-digital-gaming-wallet-trial-2024.pdf">NSW Digital Gaming Wallet trial</a> was conducted in 14 venues. Only 32 people were active users, and 14 of these were deemed genuine users. <a href="https://www.adelaide.edu.au/saces/ua/media/652/evaluation-of-yourplay-final-report_0.pdf">Another study</a> found only 0.01% of all money put through machines in Victoria used the voluntary YourPlay scheme. The problem with voluntary limits is, no one volunteers. Mandatory limits though are almost certainly necessary, just like we have mandatory limits for how fast you can drive, or how much you can drink before the bartender puts you in a taxi. There will almost certainly be push back against this, just like the introduction of mandatory seatbelts in the 1970s, or <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-04/road-safety-history-australia-toll-increase/102903364">the introduction of random breath testing</a>. Now, we accept them as important public health measures. History tells us the same will happen with mandatory gambling limits, even if we’re a bit uncomfortable about it at first.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/252389/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> By <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/alex-russell-133860">Alex Russell</a>, Principal Research Fellow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/cquniversity-australia-2140">CQUniversity Australia</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/matthew-browne-97705">Matthew Browne</a>, Senior Lecturer in Statistics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/cquniversity-australia-2140">CQUniversity Australia</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/matthew-rockloff-569">Matthew Rockloff</a>, Head, Experimental Gambling Research Lab, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/cquniversity-australia-2140">CQUniversity Australia</a> This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/gambling-in-australia-how-bad-is-the-problem-who-gets-harmed-most-and-where-may-we-be-heading-252389">original article</a>. Image: Shutterstock </div>

Money & Banking

Stunning prediction for Aussie homeowners in wake of Trump's trade war

Australian homeowners could see their mortgage repayments tumble by as much as $9,000 annually if Donald Trump’s escalating trade war triggers a global recession, with experts predicting a double interest rate cut as soon as May. As stock markets worldwide reel from the fallout of Trump’s latest trade moves – with China now deeply involved – fears of a US recession are intensifying. On Monday alone, around $100 billion was wiped from the Australian share market amid growing global trade tensions. Yet, for Australian mortgage holders, there could be a surprising silver lining. According to ANZ, homeowners with a $600,000 loan could save between $76 and $156 a month under four forecasted rate cuts of 0.25 per cent each over the next year. For those with a $500,000 mortgage, repayments could fall by about $76 a month, while families with larger $1 million loans could pocket savings of around $153 monthly – amounting to a staggering $9,000 annually. ANZ’s chief economist, Richard Yetsenga, said the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to cut rates in May, July and August. “We now expect the RBA to ease in May, July, and August – 25 basis points at each meeting,” Yetsenga said, adding that a double rate cut of 50 basis points in May is not off the table if global growth deteriorates further. Earlier this year, the RBA trimmed the cash rate by 25 basis points in February, offering homeowners with variable rate loans some relief – saving them around $100 to $150 a month, or potentially more than $1,200 annually. In a stunning prediction, Treasurer Jim Chalmers echoed these forecasts while hinting at up to four interest rate cuts this year, with the potential for a significant 50 basis point cut as early as next month. “The next Reserve Bank interest rate cut in May might be as big as 50 basis points,” Chalmers said. “Forecasting is difficult enough in stable times, but even more so in uncertain times.” Despite the grim outlook for markets, Chalmers offered reassurance, especially for Australians nearing retirement whose superannuation balances are being rocked by market volatility. “Everyone with a super fund, everyone with shares, probably every Australian, is watching the global markets with trepidation,” Chalmers said. “But we are better placed, better prepared, and Australians should take comfort in that.” The Treasurer also voiced concerns about the impact of the trade war on Asia, noting that tariffs are hitting countries like Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam particularly hard, while China’s economy may prove more resilient. ANZ expects Asian currencies to take the brunt of the adjustment as the tariffs unfold. While uncertainties loom large, for Aussie homeowners at least, the prospect of falling interest rates offers some financial relief in an increasingly unpredictable global economy. Images: Youtube

Money & Banking

Financial markets are tanking. Here’s why it’s best not to panic

<div class="theconversation-article-body"> Financial markets around the world have been slammed by the Trump adminstration’s sweeping tariffs on its trading partners, and China’s swift retaliation. Share markets have posted their biggest declines since the COVID pandemic hit in 2020, as fears of US recession surged. Iron ore, copper, oil, gold and the Australian dollar have all tumbled. On Wall Street, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/sp-500-loses-24-trillion-market-value-biggest-one-day-loss-since-2020-2025-04-03/">leading indices</a> have fallen around 10% since the tariffs were announced, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq is down 20% from its recent peak. European and Asian markets have also slumped. In Australia, the key S&P/ASX 200 slid another 4.2% on Monday to levels last seen in December 2023, taking its three-day losses since the announcement to more than 7%. <hr /> <iframe id="AJ2rZ" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: 0;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/AJ2rZ/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe> <hr /> <h2>Why are markets reacting so badly?</h2> Financial markets reacted so negatively because the tariffs were much larger than expected. They represent the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-05/trump-tariffs-upend-80-year-old-world-economic-order/105139464">biggest upheaval</a> in global trade in 80 years. Many traders were hoping the tariffs would be used mainly as a bargaining tool. <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/trump-tariffs-live-updates-trump-digs-in-says-markets-may-have-to-take-medicine-as-stock-futures-plunge-191201959.html">But comments</a> by US President Donald Trump that markets may need to “take medicine” seem to suggest otherwise. The tariffs are expected to weaken economic growth in the US as consumers pare back spending on more expensive imports, while businesses shelve investment plans. Leading US bank JP Morgan has put the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/jpmorgan-lifts-global-recession-odds-60-us-tariffs-stoke-fears-2025-04-04/">chance of a US recession</a> as high as 60%. This comes at a time when the US economy was already looking fragile. The highly regarded GDPNow model developed by the <a href="https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow">Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank</a> indicates US March quarter GDP will fall 2.8%, and that was before the tariff announcement. <h2>Worries about global growth</h2> Fears of a recession in the United States and the potential for a global downturn has led to a broad sell-off in commodity prices, including iron ore, copper and oil. Further, the Australian dollar, which is seen as a barometer for risk, has <a href="https://wise.com/au/currency-converter/currencies/aud-australian-dollar">fallen below 60 US cents</a> in local trading – its lowest level since 2009. While the direct impact of tariffs on Australia is expected to be modest (with around 6% of our exports going to US), the indirect impact could be substantial. China, Japan and South Korea together take more than 50% of Australia’s exports, and all have been hit with significantly higher tariffs. Treasurer Jim Chalmers said on Monday that the direct impact on the Australian economy would be “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-07/asx-markets-business-news-live-updates/105144276">manageable</a>”. The full effect on Australia will depend on how other countries respond, and whether we can redirect trade to other markets. The rapid decline in the Australian dollar will help offset some of the negative effects associated with a global downturn and the fall in commodity prices. We can also expect some interest-rate relief. Economists are now predicting <a href="https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-markets/traders-expect-up-to-five-rba-rate-cuts-amid-market-turmoil-this-year-20250407-p5lpo0">three further interest rate cuts</a> by the Reserve Bank, starting in May. This brings economists into line with financial market forecasts. <h2>Hang in there, markets will recover</h2> Watching equity markets tumble so dramatically can be unsettling for any investor. However, it is important to note that equity markets have experienced many downturns over the past 125 years due to wars, pandemics, financial crises and recessions. But these market impacts have generally been temporary. <hr /> <iframe id="lsNFF" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: 0;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/lsNFF/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe> <hr /> History suggests that over the long term, equity prices continue to rise, supported by growing economies and rising incomes. The key thing for investors to remember is to not panic. Now is not the time to decide to switch your superannuation or other investments to cash. This risks missing the next upswing while also crystallising any current losses. For example, despite the steep market sell-off in March 2020 as the first COVID lockdowns came into effect, the Australian share market had completely recovered those losses by June 2021. It is good practice for investors to regularly reassess their risk profile to make sure it is right for their current stage of life. This means reducing the allocation to riskier assets as investors get closer to retirement age, while also maintaining a cash buffer to avoid having to sell assets during more turbulent periods such as now. <h2>Super funds are exposed to global risks</h2> The current sell-off has highlighted a potential issue facing the superannuation industry. So much of our superannuation is now invested in global equity markets, mostly in the US, because Australia’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-02/australia-superannuation-retirement-savings/105098840">superannuation savings pool</a> – at more than A$4 trillion – has outgrown the investment opportunities available in Australia. Another issue facing the superannuation industry is the growth of cyber attacks, with several funds <a href="https://theconversation.com/hackers-have-hit-major-super-funds-a-cyber-expert-explains-how-to-stop-it-happening-again-253835">targeted in a recent attack</a>. Given the massive size of the assets held by some funds, it would seem they need to improve their security to be on par with that of the banking system.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/253929/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> By <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/luke-hartigan-1491669">Luke Hartigan</a>, Lecturer in Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841">University of Sydney</a> This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/financial-markets-are-tanking-heres-why-its-best-not-to-panic-253929">original article</a>. Image: Shutterstock </div>

Money & Banking

Refinancing your home later in life – what you need to know

There are many reasons why you may look to refinance your home. The obvious one is to lower mortgage repayments with a better rate. However, other reasons people refinance later in life include: <ul> <li>unlocking equity to invest</li> <li>paying down other debts</li> <li>buying a holiday home</li> <li>funding extended travel</li> <li>launching a new business</li> <li>supporting children with a property deposit</li> </ul> Regardless of why you want to refinance, the points below will help you navigate your options. Changing lenders It may have been a while since you last revisited your mortgage, meaning you may not be aware of current lending options and traps. A common trick lenders use is the so-called “headline rate” to grab your attention. However, this interest rate is typically not what you end up paying. It may only be an introductory rate for the first few months, or hefty fees attached may wipe out any savings. Banks aren’t the only ones offering loans nowadays. Registered non-bank lenders, fintechs and online lenders can refinance your mortgage and provide other credit services the same as any bank; they just don’t take cash deposits. Alternatively, you could explore credit unions and mutual societies. Also consider any shareholder benefits you may have. Most banks have done away with them now but may still honour pre-existing ones. If you change lenders, you could lose this entitlement – permanently. Reverse mortgages Generally, only available to people aged 60-plus, a reverse mortgage effectively allows you to unlock equity in your home without you needing to make immediate repayments. However, they often have strict conditions including: <ul> <li>minimum borrowing amounts</li> <li>maximum borrowing ratios</li> <li>higher interest rates than standard mortgages</li> </ul> Crucially, the interest accrues over time and is repaid when you sell, move or pass away. As such, your debt liability grows over time – potentially impacting your future living arrangements and how much is left for beneficiaries in your will. The Govt has the “loan equity scheme” as another option to lenders. I just want to highlight the need to be careful with reverse mortgages. Changing homes Rather than selling, downsizing could involve making an investment property your primary residence and then renting out your existing home. This approach may require you to refinance both loans simultaneously. There will also be tax considerations to work through – including Capital Gains Tax liabilities when you do sell, negative gearing, depreciation, and changes to your income tax. Then there are the lifestyle factors to weigh up, especially if you are moving to a different area: <ul> <li>living expenses</li> <li>insurance and travel costs</li> <li>access to healthcare</li> <li>rental income</li> <li>property management expenses</li> </ul> Remember that if you have a Self Managed Super Fund (SMSF), it CANNOT own any property that you directly use yourself, including your home. Becoming Bank of Mum and Dad Refinancing can unlock equity to support adult children with their first property deposit. However, it isn’t without its risks. Ask yourself honestly: <ul> <li>Will this be a gift or loan?</li> <li>If a loan, under what terms? Will interest be applied? How and when will repayments be made? What if they default?</li> <li>What happens if their relationship breaks down, will you get your money back?</li> <li>How does going without that money affect your retirement?</li> <li>Do you have alternative assets to support you if your circumstances change?</li> <li>How does this affect inheritances or deposit contributions to your other children?</li> <li>Can you assist them another way without using your home equity?</li> </ul> Draw up a written agreement outlining all conditions and scenarios to avoid disagreements in the future. Pension impacts Don’t overlook how refinancing your home could impact your pension. While your home is exempt from the means test, any income or assets you generate from unlocking equity is not. You could inadvertently see your pension amount reduced or your eligibility voided altogether. This would come as a nasty shock if you haven’t pre-budgeted for such a change! Getting advice To ensure you get the best bang for your buck when refinancing, be sure to enlist the help of a good: <ul> <li>mortgage broker to source the best loans for your circumstances</li> <li>insurance broker to ensure your cover is right sized for your needs, risk and budget</li> <li>accountant to work through any tax implications</li> <li>estate planner to manage any changes</li> <li>financial adviser to keep your investments and financial strategy working for you</li> </ul> Ultimately, decisions – including about refinancing – are only as good the information you have at hand. So, make sure you have all the relevant facts before signing on the dotted line. Helen Baker is a licensed Australian financial adviser and author of the new book, Money For Life: How to build financial security from firm foundations (Major Street Publishing $32.99). Helen is among the 1% of financial planners who hold a master’s degree in the field. Proceeds from book sales are donated to charities supporting disadvantaged women and children. Find out more at <a style="color: #467886;" title="http://www.onyourowntwofeet.com.au/" href="http://www.onyourowntwofeet.com.au/">www.onyourowntwofeet.com.au</a> Disclaimer: The information in this article is of a general nature only and does not constitute personal financial or product advice. Any opinions or views expressed are those of the authors and do not represent those of people, institutions or organisations the owner may be associated with in a professional or personal capacity unless explicitly stated. Helen Baker is an authorised representative of BPW Partners Pty Ltd AFSL 548754.

Money & Banking

"No sympathy": 26-year-old roasted over massive tax bill complaint

It’s a classic tale of riches to tax brackets – OnlyFans creator Talia Batiste, 26, has found herself in the fiery depths of an Australian Tax Office reckoning, and the internet has wasted no time serving up a heaping plate of zero sympathy. Batiste, who revealed that she’s been hit with a tax bill totalling $71,008.45 (yes, she included the cents for maximum devastation), took to social media to lament her financial woes. “For everyone that likes to make sure I’m paying my tax. I’m going to go and cry myself to sleep now,” she wrote, presumably while clutching her silk pillow stuffed with $100 bills. The internet’s reaction? Less “thoughts and prayers”, more “play stupid games, win inevitable government-mandated financial responsibilities”. “Absolutely robbery,” one concerned citizen commented, clearly distressed by the idea of anyone having to contribute to society. “To pay that much tax, you earn a sh**load. No sympathy,” another user shot back, presumably while furiously entering their own lacklustre income into a tax return calculator. Some were more pragmatic, offering sage financial wisdom. “I hope you have a good accountant to get you those tax deductions,” someone advised, the unspoken message being: “There’s still hope, young one.” While many scoffed at the idea of crying over a salary that most people only see on TV shows where billionaires buy entire islands for sport, Batiste remained defiant. <a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/cry-myself-to-sleep-26yearold-in-tears-over-giant-tax-bill/news-story/7adfcb10f0ea62a1749f4dc6c1b65934" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Speaking to news.com.au</a>, she admitted that the bill “wasn’t too bad” compared to the tax nightmares of yesteryear. (Yes, it turns out paying taxes gets easier when you know they’re coming. Who knew?) Batiste revealed that an early accounting blunder had initially classified her as a sole trader rather than a business, making her tax situation about as pleasant as a surprise phone call from the ATO. “So when I make $400,000+ a year, it looks like that is my personal income rather than money going back into a business,” she explained, finally unlocking the ancient wisdom of self-employment taxation. Now, with proper financial advice in place, she says she takes a modest salary while the rest of her earnings go into business expenses – like, presumably, funding the tissue budget for her post-tax breakdowns. Despite her newfound tax strategy, Batiste insists that the process “never gets easier”. (Except for last year, when she owed a whopping $136k, making this year’s bill look like pocket change by comparison.) She also had some words about Australia’s taxation system: “Everybody pays too much tax.” Yes, much like death and bad reality TV spin-offs, taxation is inevitable. But Batiste isn’t letting it get her down – at least, not too much. Even though she says she’s “prepared” for these bills now, that doesn’t mean she enjoys sending her hard-earned money into the great abyss of government spending. “Hitting send on that ATO payment hurts every time,” she said. Meanwhile, taxpayers earning a fraction of her income simply sighed, checked their bank balances, and went back to their regularly scheduled programming: budgeting how to afford avocados and rent in the same month. Images: TikTok

Money & Banking

5 mistakes people make setting financial goals

In discussions around money and goal setting, people talk a lot about financial freedom. What does that mean to you, though? We might redefine money as ‘a unit of choice’, because the more money you make, the more choices you have. Everyone’s aspirations are different, which is one reason why there’s no one-size-fits- all approach to wealth. It’s time to begin to understand what financial freedom means to you, because how on earth are you going to get there, if you don’t know where there is? How will you craft a strategic wealth-building plan when you don’t know what your target is? How will you know if you are making the right decisions in the right areas, decisions that are intentionally and systematically advancing you towards your outcomes. Here are some of the big mistakes I see people make when setting financial goals. <h2>Mistake #1: They have none!</h2> Without a goal, how will you know what to steer towards? You are left just ‘hoping’ that one day things will work out. With no clear direction to head towards, any actions you take are more or less random. You’re often left sitting idle and going nowhere fast, just swept along by whatever current comes your way. <h2>Mistake #2: They make them too big</h2> This might seem counterintuitive, especially since the typical conversation about personal development emphasises aiming for big, ambitious goals. And while these can be valuable, helping to elevate your thinking and giving you something inspiring to work towards, the problem arises when they are your only focus. Without smaller, achievable milestones to serve as stepping stones, the gap between where you are now and your ultimate goal can feel overwhelming. This can make it hard for your subconscious mind to fully commit, leading to procrastination or self-sabotage due to fear of not knowing how to get there. <h2>Mistake #3: They make them too small</h2> While small goals may seem manageable, they can lack the power to ignite your motivation or emotional drive or to be the catalyst that pulls you towards something greater than who and where you are in life right now. Small, uninspiring goals can make it easy to remain complacent. Without a purpose or vision that stretches you, there’s no real incentive to pursue them with passion. They don’t create the emotional connection that’s essential for driving sustained effort and overcoming obstacles. As a result, you may never fully commit to these goals, and they end up being more like tasks to check off a list than meaningful milestones on your path to success. <h2>Mistake #4: They are vague and wishy-washy</h2> When your goals are unclear and lack focus, they are difficult to achieve. Goals like ‘I want to be rich’ of ‘I want more money’ are too broad to provide any real direction. Without concrete details – such as specific numbers, deadlines or actionable steps – you don’t have a clear path to follow. Vague goals make it hard to measure progress or stay motivated, because there’s nothing tangible to work towards. As a result, your efforts can become inconsistent, and it’s easy to lose focus. Without clarity, you can’t point your actions in a specific direction, which makes it unlikely you’ll make any meaningful progress. A well-defined goal, on the other hand, creates a roadmap and keeps you accountable along the way. <h2>Mistake #5: They have no plan to make it real</h2> Setting a clear goal is undeniably important but it’s only part of the process. Just because someone says they want a specific outcome does not mean they will achieve it. Yet many people fixate solely on the goal itself, or they try to manifest wealth and happiness through the ‘law of attraction’ alone. Most people spend 95 per cent of their time focusing on setting the goal and only 5 per cent on the actions needed to achieve it. Do you see the flaw in that approach? Instead, reverse the focus. Spend 5 per cent of your time defining the goal, and 95 per cent of your time working towards making it a reality. This is where having the right system becomes crucial. How do we break free from impotent goal setting and instead craft a set of financial goals that are not only big, beautiful and inspiring, but achievable. By setting targets that are tangible and tactical and are going to set you up to win, you become more than who you are right now. In the end, a goal without a plan is just an idea. A plan without a goal is simply directionless effort. It may keep you busy, but it won’t lead you anywhere meaningful. Both the goal and the plan must work together – one providing the destination, the other offering the roadmap. I always tell my clients they will never out-earn themselves. If you want to level up your results in life, you have to first level up as a person and raise the standards in how you choose to play the game. This is an edited extract from Escape the Middle (Wiley $32.95) by Todd Polke. Todd is an investor, entrepreneur and international educator in investing and wealth creation. For over two decades, he has guided thousands of individuals in growing and scaling their wealth to achieve financial independence. Find out more at <a href="https://www.portfoliowealth.com%20" target="_blank" rel="noopener">www.portfoliowealth.com </a> Image: Shutterstock

Money & Banking

Aussie TV star wins $9.2m on game show – the largest in history

In an electrifying moment that will surely go down in television history, Australian reality TV star David Genat has claimed a jaw-dropping AUD$9.2 million prize on US television, securing the largest single cash payout ever seen on American TV. The 44-year-old, widely recognised by Aussie audiences from Survivor Australia, Celebrity Apprentice, Rush and Getaway, delivered a masterclass in risk-taking and intuition in NBC’s Deal or No Deal Island. Genat, dubbed the “Survivor golden god” after his 2020 Survivor Australia: All Stars victory, knew he had the upper hand early in the final showdown. But the real twist came when the show’s notorious banker was revealed as none other than Chrissy Teigen. Faced with 26 cases – one containing the life-changing sum of AUD$12.2 million – Genat navigated a nail-biting elimination round, fuelled by his father’s memory and a razor-sharp strategy. Rejecting a staggering seven offers, including multiple million-dollar deals, he played with nerves of steel until just two cases remained. Then came the final offer: a mind-blowing $US5.8 million ($AUD9.2 million). With tension at an all-time high, Genat made the call – he took the deal. It was a decision that paid off in monumental fashion. When his chosen case was opened, it contained just $75. Had he gambled one step further, he would have walked away with next to nothing. Instead, he etched his name into television history with the record-breaking win. “It was surreal,” Genat later shared with USA Today. “The offer came in at US$5.8 million and I started thinking about it, and that is just so much money. I was having a spiritual experience, man. I just knew where that money was. I knew which cases to open. I was looking for signs from my father, who passed away a couple of years ago. I felt his presence there, and he was just guiding me on what cases to open.” That deep connection gave him the clarity to seize the moment and walk away with a life-altering fortune. “My frequency is on another level,” he added. “I fully feel like I’m floating.” With his newfound millions, Genat already has a few indulgences in mind, including a new motorcycle, a luxury watch and some sleek new cars for his four kids. But the adventure might not stop here. Rumours are swirling that Genat could be gearing up for another reality TV showdown on the upcoming Survivor: Australia vs. the World, set to air later this year. Images: Instagram

Money & Banking

Population panic: how demography is used for political gain

<div class="theconversation-article-body"> Population is far from the seemingly innocuous and bland topic of “people”. We’re not just talking people. We’re talking the very foundation of society, culture, and economy … and it’s deeply fraught. It’s also an effective political point scorer. Population scrutiny waxes and wanes in Australian populist and political discourse, much like many nations across the globe. <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-behind-the-dramatic-shift-in-canadian-public-opinion-about-immigration-levels-219193">Canada</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-defends-immigration-policy-during-state-of-the-union-blaming-republicans-in-congress-for-refusing-to-act-225158">the United States</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-far-right-political-group-is-gaining-popularity-in-germany-but-so-too-are-protests-against-it-223151">Germany</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-demand-but-disempowered-why-low-skilled-migrant-workers-face-even-worse-exploitation-under-nzs-new-rules-227993">New Zealand</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk-taking-back-control-of-its-borders-risks-rolling-back-human-rights-protections-230044">the United Kingdom</a> are all grappling with population issues. But when we talk population, it’s pretty safe to read immigration. It’s immigration that has most of the world talking, because growth for many is dominated by international movements, not local growth. Population growth due to immigration has fed growing fears from some quarters about a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/religion/five-years-terror-christchurch-mosque-danger-muslim-women/103593682">replacement of the majority dominance</a> – in other words, that white people will no longer be the majority in Australia. Contemporary population debate has been largely ill-informed, lacking nuance and is often detrimental. Rooted in a long history of the way we talk about population, contemporary debate is best understood in context, and with facts. <h2>Population dynamics and change</h2> Population is most simply a <a href="https://population.gov.au/population-topics/topic-population-measurement">bunch of individuals</a> living in a specific place. Sounds boring, I know, but the reality is something much greater. When we start talking about what underpins population – composition, characteristics and change – it becomes clear why population is so political. Populations are comprised of varying characteristics – think age, sex, and geography. Characteristics like the age structure of a population have a direct impact on the workforce and economic wellbeing of a nation. A younger population means more expenditure invested in the young to ensure a strong workforce in the future. This is known as the <a href="https://www.prb.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/prb-demographic-dividend-evidence-1.pdf">demographic dividend</a>. An older population age structure, on the other hand, sees more spending on the upper end of the life course – senior people – and pressures on the workforce meeting the economic needs of the nation. This is <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/2f762f95845417aeca25706c00834efa/851dece969d9182cca2570ec000a2501!OpenDocument">structural ageing</a>. Australia’s population, like most of the world, is structurally ageing. We’re living longer and <a href="https://blog.id.com.au/2023/population/population-trends/australias-birth-rate-falls-in-2022#:%7E:text=Australia's%20birth%20rate%20has%20been,level">not replacing ourselves</a> through births. Living longer is a mark of technological success and ingenuity, and the same could be said about below-replacement births. But our success has some downsides. <blockquote class="instagram-media" style="background: #FFF; border: 0; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: 0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width: 540px; min-width: 326px; padding: 0; width: calc(100% - 2px);" data-instgrm-captioned="" data-instgrm-permalink="https://www.instagram.com/p/DBP0rqgSCm5/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" data-instgrm-version="14"> <div style="padding: 16px;"> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; align-items: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 40px; margin-right: 14px; width: 40px;"> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 100px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 60px;"> </div> </div> </div> <div style="padding: 19% 0;"> </div> <div style="display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0 auto 12px; width: 50px;"> </div> <div style="padding-top: 8px;"> <div style="color: #3897f0; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 550; line-height: 18px;">View this post on Instagram</div> </div> <div style="padding: 12.5% 0;"> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; margin-bottom: 14px; align-items: center;"> <div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(0px) translateY(7px);"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; height: 12.5px; transform: rotate(-45deg) translateX(3px) translateY(1px); width: 12.5px; flex-grow: 0; margin-right: 14px; margin-left: 2px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(9px) translateY(-18px);"> </div> </div> <div style="margin-left: 8px;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 20px; width: 20px;"> </div> <div style="width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 2px solid transparent; border-left: 6px solid #f4f4f4; border-bottom: 2px solid transparent; transform: translateX(16px) translateY(-4px) rotate(30deg);"> </div> </div> <div style="margin-left: auto;"> <div style="width: 0px; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-right: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(16px);"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; flex-grow: 0; height: 12px; width: 16px; transform: translateY(-4px);"> </div> <div style="width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-left: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(-4px) translateX(8px);"> </div> </div> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 24px;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 224px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 144px;"> </div> </div> <p style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 8px; overflow: hidden; padding: 8px 0 7px; text-align: center; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;"><a style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.instagram.com/p/DBP0rqgSCm5/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A post shared by Australian Bureau of Statistics (@absstats)</a> </div> </blockquote> The trouble with below-level births and an ageing population is that the local age structure is not sufficient to meet the <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/intergenerational-report">needs of the workforce</a>. Simply, the local Australian population cannot meet the economic needs of the nation, and this has the potential to see living standards go backwards. Immigration helps offset the adverse consequences of an ageing population. Population change occurs due to births, deaths and migration. Commonly known as the population balancing equation, population growth is expressed as: births minus deaths plus migration. Immigration makes up the majority of population growth in Australia and has done so consistently since <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/australias-health/profile-of-australias-population">around 2005</a>, with the exception of international border closures during COVID. Natural increase – the balance of births minus deaths – also contributes to population growth in Australia. However, increasing deaths and declining births means the country is expected to see <a href="https://theconversation.com/eight-charts-on-how-australias-population-is-growing-and-changing-227153">natural decline by 2054</a>. <h2>Population problem</h2> In Australia, there has been a preoccupation with the <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/australias-health/profile-of-australias-population">drivers of population change</a> since colonisation. Is the nation’s population <a href="https://digital-classroom.nma.gov.au/defining-moments/postwar-immigration-drive">growing too slowly</a>? <a href="https://www.themandarin.com.au/237985-australia-population-27-million-milestone/">Too fast</a>? Why are women having <a href="https://theconversation.com/women-in-rich-countries-are-having-fewer-kids-or-none-at-all-whats-going-on-229185#:%7E:text=Simply%2C%20women%20are%20often%20not,and%20buying%20a%20first%20home.">too few children</a>? Are the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/abbott-calls-for-middle-class-women-to-have-more-children-20200128-p53vkx.html">wrong kind of women</a> having too many children? Will migrants <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-15/migrant-movement-in-australia-covid/100536114">want to come</a> to the country? Are there <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/21/migration-numbers-australia-2023-rise">too many migrants</a> coming to Australia? Australia is rarely not in a state of <a href="https://theconversation.com/solving-the-population-problem-through-policy-110970">population panic</a>. Population panic once stemmed from being a small population in a big country vulnerable to external military attack. Now population panic is about the pace of growth being too great, due to immigration. And it doesn’t take much to stoke <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/oct/18/global-population-growth-8-billion-unfdp-united-nations-warning-alarmism">population fear</a>. Population is charged and offers an easy trigger point to leverage voters. Politicians on all sides of the ideological landscape know this and use population discourse effectively for political gain. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/h5CubF42DGI?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></figure> Since the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/41110698">early 1900s</a>, Australia’s history has been dotted with inquiries into growth and birth rates. In fact, at the time of colonisation, the male-dominated imbalance in the colony sparked calls for more women from Britain – <a href="https://unsw.press/books/the-future-of-us/">of suitable status</a> – to help arrest high rates of hooliganism, drunkenness, and sexually transmitted infections. Women of standing were believed to help socialise the nation and provide essential children for nation building. Nothing much has changed really, with the Treasurer Jim Chalmers saying in the lead up to the 2024 federal budget: “<a href="https://youtu.be/JLzp53D6thg?si=p8YheMdF0-ndO9DB">It would be better if birth rates were higher</a>”. <h2>So why aren’t women having babies?</h2> Australian federal treasurers have expressed concerns about birth rates over many years, across different governments. Chalmers wasn’t the first and he won’t be the last bemoaning below-replacement births. In 2004, then-treasurer Peter Costello <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/peter-costello-1996/transcripts/doorstop-interview-treasury-place-melbourne-16">famously said</a>: “have one for mum, one for dad and one for the country”. <a href="https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2020/07/25/baby-bonus-frydenberg-costello">Josh Frydenberg, while treasurer, stated</a>: <blockquote> I won’t go as far as to say, like Peter Costello, “one for the mother, one for the father and one for the country”. But [what] I can say is that people should feel encouraged about the future and the more children that we have across the country, together with our migration, we will build our population growth and that will be good for the economy.“ </blockquote> In the 1940s, Australia held an inquiry into falling birth rates, and following the second world war Australians were called on to populate or perish. During the 1940s inquiry, <a href="https://catalogue.nla.gov.au/catalog/1786445">women were invited to make submissions</a> reflecting how difficult motherhood was and how unsupported they were: "You men in easy chairs say ‘populate or perish’. Well, I have populated and I have perished – with no blankets.” Many Australians now won’t achieve their desired family size because contemporary life is simply not conducive to having children. Having no or fewer children is now a forced outcome for a growing number of Australians. The barriers to having a child are now insurmountable for far too many. Housing affordability, gender inequality, financial insecurity and climate change make for an unstable and uncertain future. Young Australians are carrying the burden of the nation’s future and the burden is simply too much. They have seen the generational bargain crumble and are being denied a future because of the failings of politics past. <h2>Permanent versus net overseas migration</h2> Among the many nuances missing from the population debate is the difference in the terminology used to refer to immigration. From a planning point of view, permanent migration is discussed; from a population perspective, net overseas migration applies. The difference between the two is stark and used in a smoke and mirrors way to hide reality or harm an opponent. Government has much control over permanent migration, little control over net overseas migration. Permanent migration refers to the cap of permanent visas granted. The permanent migration program is reviewed annually by the <a href="https://immi.homeaffairs.gov.au/what-we-do/migration-program-planning-levels">Department of Home Affairs</a> with input from select experts, peak bodies, and government. Permanent migration <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_departments/Parliamentary_Library/Budget/reviews/2023-24/Immigration">has fluctuated over the past ten years</a>, reflecting political point scoring. Under Tony Abbott’s government in 2014-15, permanent migration was just under 190,000. The permanent migration remained in the 180,000s until declining to over 160,000 in 2017-18 under Scott Morrison. Morrison also reduced permanent migration further to around 144,000 in 2021-22. In its final year, the Morrison government flagged increasing the planning level for <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021-06/p2021-182464.pdf">permanent migration to 190,000</a>. Planning levels under the Anthony Albanese government were 195,000 and 190,000 in 2022-23 and 2023-24 respectively. The permanent migration program ceiling is set to decline by 5,000 places to 185,000 in 2024-25 under Albanese. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has also announced his party would reduce permanent numbers to 140,000, seemingly linking <a href="https://www.liberal.org.au/latest-news/2024/05/16/leader-oppositions-budget-address-reply">housing affordability to permanent migration</a>. Dutton has also said his party would cut net overseas migration (NOM) but has since <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-08/dutton-walks-back-promise-to-cut-net-migration/10469921">backtracked on his plan</a>, possibly because he realised it couldn’t be done. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> Explaining the 2024 Migration Surge A recent surge in net migration has become a hot topic, with politicians & media linking it to housing pressures. But what is Net Migration? And do we really have unusually high volumes of migration? <a href="https://t.co/TjzwbtGqsF">https://t.co/TjzwbtGqsF</a> <a href="https://t.co/aFHXIeC4ay">pic.twitter.com/aFHXIeC4ay</a> — Alan Gamlen (@alangamlen) <a href="https://twitter.com/alangamlen/status/1795721881699664286?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 29, 2024</a></blockquote> Net overseas migration feeds into population estimates and is the balance of incoming minus outgoing migration. <a href="https://immi.homeaffairs.gov.au/what-we-do/migration-program-planning-levels?fbclid=PAZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAaZPBEWLyQJhkvB8_SaqYBSgRdV_rx4Kjy86bbkugYRsOO2cukAoD2wd5dM_aem_AcfxCup1XXR8DP4ZaRfFTFaXggVYw8b8TyNLWsw-3fIenPm_wsx7xM0zfsZHmQ2OjYi0H-YUQdLxUjQUcT47Feij#:%7E:text=Net%20overseas%20migration%20%E2%80%93%20relationship%20with,New%20Zealanders%20and%20Humanitarian%20migrants">NOM is comprised</a> of temporary and permanent migration and includes refugees, students, working holiday makers, and even Australian and New Zealand citizens. A cut to the permanent migration program is unlikely to affect net overseas migration numbers. NOM is set to return to <a href="https://budget.gov.au/content/bp3/download/bp3_14_appendix_a.pdf">recent historical average</a> even without reduced permanent numbers. Most people granted permanency are <a href="https://immi.homeaffairs.gov.au/what-we-do/migration-program-planning-levels?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR1aJLdjyJotVfICnc2Ge8vcrJ6DMCaPC4XfDOST9owl1qS4YfBYCKYPkBw_aem_AcegFZW0_vafT8J90jDFyG8aVhMd2f0Ab_9EqE1Y38Q5vuVT5NExZi5Um2BrkpHg0odl0odbI0pDfnUE7A34PRhi">already in the country</a>. What will occur with a reduced migration program is increased temporariness. Increased temporariness has the potential to erode social cohesion, harming migrants and Australian society overall. Just like births, populist tactics are used when talking immigration for quick political point scoring. It works, but is it good for people? <h2>Turning on ourselves</h2> Demography is often used against the population in a peculiar ploy to win political points. Take gender. Fewer birth means less expenditure on paid parental leave and superannuation for those receiving parental leave. Announcing <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-14/federal-budget-pledges-superannuation-into-paid-parental-leave/103846312">increased</a> paid parental leave benefits and superannuation while knowing births are set to be fewer is political genius. Chalmers announced exactly this in the 2024 budget. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> BREAKING: Parliament has just passed our bill to expand Paid Parental Leave to 26 weeks. On top of that, we've announced a plan to pay super on PPL from 1 July 2025 - all part of our efforts to ensure women earn more, keep more of what they earn & retire with more as well <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/auspol?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#auspol</a> <a href="https://t.co/p3p4ib6sed">pic.twitter.com/p3p4ib6sed</a> — Jim Chalmers MP (@JEChalmers) <a href="https://twitter.com/JEChalmers/status/1769541268739080507?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 18, 2024</a></blockquote> The government says it’s doing more for women and mothers, but what it’s actually doing is a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-20/paid-parental-leave-payments-saving-millions-fertility-rate/103866506">whole lot of nothing</a>. There is no substantive examination of why women are saying no to motherhood. Demographic insights have enabled an effective political sleight of hand to give the illusion of doing something when actually not doing much at all. Blaming population growth for the housing crisis is another stroke of political mastery. Talking tough on population (immigration) while promoting and relying on immigration is a tale as old as Australia’s ageing population. When in opposition the talk is tough; when in government, actions speak louder than words. Governments and oppositions, no matter the political leaning, make promises and then realise immigration is the economic safety raft keep the economy afloat. <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/jim-chalmers-2022/speeches/budget-speech-2024-25">Chalmers talked tough</a> on immigration in his 2024 budget speech, pointing the finger of blame towards immigration for all manner of things, <blockquote> […] we’re addressing the pressures caused by population growth, with net overseas migration next year now expected to be half what it was last year. </blockquote> But the government can’t take the credit for lowering NOM – nothing they did lowered the artificially high rates of NOM Australia saw post COVID border reopening. Yes, the Albanese government has introduced changes to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australia-tightens-student-visa-rules-migration-hits-record-high-2024-03-21/">build integrity</a> into the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australia-raises-minimum-savings-student-visa-warns-fake-recruitment-2024-05-08/">migration system</a>, but NOM figures were set to decline anyway. It comes down to the way it is calculated. Border closures in Australia saw NOM fall to <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/overseas-migration/2022-23-financial-year">-88,000 in 2020-21</a>. That’s negative nearly 90,000 people. <hr /> <iframe id="datawrapper-chart-9amUU" style="border: none;" title="Overseas migration in Australia from 2014 to 2024" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/9amUU/1/" width="100%" height="426" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" aria-label="Interactive line chart" data-external="1"></iframe> <hr /> This was the first such decline outside wartime in Australia’s recorded history. A big deal. Temporary migrants, including students, left Australia prematurely at the onset and peak of COVID-related measures. Morrison, prime minister at the time, told international students and temporary visa holders to “go home”, while saying those with critical skills <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-03/coronavirus-pm-tells-international-students-time-to-go-to-home/12119568">could stay and contribute</a>: “For those backpackers in Australia who are nurses or doctors, or have other critical skills that can really help us during this crisis, then there will be opportunities for them”. Expendability of migrants echoed in this statement. What happened with the NOM during COVID closed borders was essentially a calculation reset. Higher than expected numbers of people left Australia prematurely. Students, especially, left Australia prior to their studies finishing. This resulted in greater outgoings of NOM than the recent average. NOM restarted the moment borders reopened, but because so many brought forward their exit the number of incomers weren’t balanced by the usual outflow of people. Taking a longer view of NOM prior to and since COVID-related measures shows smoother growth than popular media suggests. But nuance is hard to articulate in small soundbites, especially when the language of otherness is so enticing. <h2>Creating the ‘other’</h2> <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/14705958231216936">The language of otherness</a> is used extensively in the population (immigration) narrative. Dutton played population bingo with his use of the word “foreign” in his 2024 budget reply speech referring to students, ending investment, and interference. Dutton also blamed migrants for road congestion and pressure on local services. His speech was a populist symphony. When in opposition, members of the now government also made disparaging comments about migrants. For example, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/do-we-want-migrants-to-return-in-the-same-numbers-the-answer-is-no-20200501-p54p2q.html">Kristina Keneally</a> wrote an opinion piece suggesting migrants were taking jobs from locals. Fear about population is easily manufactured, and once created enables a fix the playmaker can resolve. Much like a David Copperfield magic special. The trouble with these tactics is in the enormous <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/australias-population-country-birth/latest-release">diversity in Australia</a> – we risk turning on ourselves and eroding already fraying social cohesion. <h2>Shaping Australia</h2> Our preoccupation with population largely reflects the central place people and demography hold in the economy and very function of the nation. But we appear to have lost our heads, instead problematising the very heart of what makes us Australian: the people. Demography is a slow-moving train, and based on past and current trends population science can somewhat predict the future. The populist playbook results in population (namely immigration) used for political point scoring, to the detriment of the people, particularly the young. Australia is by no means perfect. There is much work to be done to fix the multiple crises the nation is confronted with – housing affordability, financial insecurity, gender inequality, and climate change. A sensible approach to population and immigration is needed to ensure living standards don’t go backwards. Migrants help us weather the demographic headwinds. Rather than use population for political gain, we need instead to harness the power of demography to solve our way out of the gigantic mess we’re in. The key is ensuring young people have a future worth living. <hr /> This is an edited extract from <a href="https://thamesandhudson.com.au/product/how-australian-democracy-works-and-why-we-need-it-more-than-ever/">How Australian Democracy Works</a>, a new collection of essays from The Conversation on all aspects of the country’s political landscape.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/230409/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> By <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/liz-allen-10193">Liz Allen</a>, Demographer, POLIS Centre for Social Policy Research, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877">Australian National University</a> This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/population-panic-how-demography-is-used-for-political-gain-230409">original article</a>. Image: Shutterstock </div>

Money & Banking

Federal Budget 2025: The short, sharp and – sort of – sweet version

The federal budget is always a massive, jargon-filled beast, but don’t worry – we’ve got your back. Here’s a quick and easy rundown of the key numbers, economic forecasts and big-ticket promises (without making your head spin). Whether it’s tax cuts, energy bill relief, or debt figures that sound like someone’s phone number, this summary gives you the essentials in plain English. THE BIG PICTURE: WHERE THE MONEY’S GOING (AND COMING FROM) Economic Growth: The economy is expected to grow by 1.5% in 2024-25, which isn’t exactly fireworks but at least it’s moving in the right direction. Unemployment Rate: The jobless rate is set to rise to 4.25%, meaning more people might be dusting off their résumés. Inflation: The cost of living squeeze is easing slightly, with inflation forecast to drop to 2.5%, finally giving our wallets a breather. Wages Growth: Paychecks are expected to grow by 3%, so while you won’t be rolling in cash, you might afford an extra coffee per week. Living Standards: Household disposable income is expected to rise a bit faster than planned, so that’s a small win for the grocery bill. Migration: Net overseas migration is slowing down, dropping from 435,000 in 2023-24 to 225,000 by 2026-27, as the government tweaks immigration settings. The Big One: Budget Deficit: The country will be $27.6 billion in the red this year, which sounds bad, but hey, it’s better than some past years. Commonwealth Debt: The nation’s credit card balance will hit $940 billion in 2024-25 before cracking $1 trillion the year after, making it one of the biggest IOUs in Aussie history. Net Debt: The government’s net debt will rise to $556 billion, proving once again that we’re all experts at spending more than we have. WHAT’S IN IT FOR YOU (IF LABOR STAYS IN POWER)? If Labor wins the next election, they’ve got a shopping list of goodies lined up. From tax cuts and cheaper meds to more affordable childcare and a crackdown on dodgy workplace contracts, here’s what they’re promising in order to make life a little easier (or at least a little less expensive). Tax Cuts: Everyone gets a tiny tax break worth about $10 a week, starting in July 2026 – not enough for a holiday, but maybe an extra beer, depending on where you buy your drinks. Energy Bill Relief: Households and small businesses will get $150 off their power bills, because, let’s face it, electricity prices are still a killer. Cheaper Medicines: Prescription drugs will be capped at $25 per script, meaning fewer nasty surprises at the pharmacy checkout. Healthcare Boost: More bulk-billing, 50 new urgent care clinics, and extra funding for nurses and GPs, costing a whopping $9 billion over four years – great news if you hate long waits at the doctor. Childcare Help: Families earning up to $500,000 (yes, you read that right) will get at least three days of subsidised childcare, costing $427 million over five years. First Home Buyer Support: The Help to Buy scheme will get a boost, making it a bit easier for first-home buyers to get into the market (assuming they can still afford avocado toast). Workplace Shake-Up: Banning non-compete clauses for low- and middle-income workers could boost wages by $2,500 a year – so no more weird contracts stopping you from getting a better job. HECS Debt Slash: A 20% cut to student loan debt, wiping $16 billion from the books – a rare win for anyone still haunted by their HECS balance. Disaster Recovery: $1.2 billion is going towards helping communities in southeast Queensland and northern NSW recover from ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred – because Mother Nature isn’t playing nice. Big Infrastructure Plans: Expect major upgrades like $7.2 billion for Queensland’s Bruce Highway, $2 billion for a new rail hub in Melbourne, and $1 billion for Sydney’s southwest rail corridor – so maybe, just maybe, your commute will be a little less torturous. Defence Spending: A fast-tracked $1 billion investment in guided weapons, submarines and frigates, because apparently, we’re getting serious about military hardware. And that’s the budget in a nutshell! More spending, some relief for households, and a debt number that’ll make your calculator cry. Images: WikiCommons

Money & Banking

The renting trap snaring retirees – and how to avoid it

It has long been known that renting in retirement is associated with a lower quality of life. Understanding the causal factors can help you avoid a similar fate. There are many reasons why renting in retirement can be problematic. For a start, figures on how much income we need to retire comfortably usually assumes that you own your home – the cost of rent isn’t included. So, anyone using this as a guide falls well short, potentially by 20-40 per cent. Additionally: <ul> <li>Rent usually eats up a larger portion of retirement income than home ownership.</li> <li>Over time, rents typically keep rising while mortgage debts reduce.</li> <li>Home ownership provides equity to use for other investments, further boosting retirement income.</li> <li>Downsizing homeowners can make an additional superannuation contribution from the sale proceeds, which renters cannot.</li> <li>Homeowners can make accessibility modifications to meet their needs as they age, like installing ramps or rails.</li> <li>Homeowners have greater stability and aren’t subject to eviction (and moving costs) at short notice.</li> </ul> How big a problem is it? Numerous studies have highlighted the growing scale of the problem faced by renting retirees. <a style="color: #467886;" href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/renting-in-retirement-why-rent-assistance-needs-to-rise/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Grattan Institute</a> recently found that “two in three retirees who rent in the private market live in poverty,” and that “most older working Australians who rent do not have sufficient savings to keep paying rent in retirement.” The rental trap is also not exclusive to low-income earners. <a style="color: #467886;" href="https://everybodyshome.com.au/resources/priced-out-priced-out-an-index-of-affordable-rentals-for-australian-voters/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Everybody’s Home</a> recently found Australians earning $100,000 per year – above the <a style="color: #467886;" href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/earnings-and-working-conditions/employee-earnings/latest-release" target="_blank" rel="noopener">national median of $1,396 per week</a> ($72,592 per year) – are struggling to pay their rent. The end result is that homelessness is a growing problem for over 55s – particularly women. <a style="color: #467886;" href="https://www.mercyfoundation.com.au/our-focus/ending-homelessness/older-women-and-homelessness/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Mercy Foundation</a> notes that homelessness among these women grew 6.6 per cent in the 2021 Census, following a huge 31 per cent increase in the 2016 Census. What is causing it? Not owning your own home in retirement is obvious answer here. But there are various contributing factors that see people forced to rent later in life, including losing their home and being financially unable to replace it. These include: <ul> <li>Divorce/separation – court and legal fees, counselling costs, division of assets (including the family home).</li> <li>Pre-retirement chronic illness – time out of the workforce for both the patient and their partner to care for them, loss of income, less going into super, and higher healthcare costs.</li> <li>Death of a partner – up-front bills like funeral expenses, surviving partner suddenly on a single income.</li> <li>Elder abuse – an estimated <a style="color: #467886;" href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/family-domestic-and-sexual-violence/population-groups/older-people#abuse" target="_blank" rel="noopener">one in six older Australians experience elder abuse</a>, including 2.1 per cent facing financial abuse.</li> <li>Domestic violence – fleeing abusive relationships with little or no money and assets.</li> <li>Climate change – loss of uninsured home/other assets as storms, floods, cyclones, and fires increase in frequency and severity.</li> <li>Scams – <a style="color: #467886;" href="https://www.nasc.gov.au/news/australians-better-protected-as-reported-scam-losses-fell-by-almost-26-per-cent" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Australians lost $2 billion to scams</a> in 2024.</li> <li>Gambling – <a style="color: #467886;" href="https://aifs.gov.au/research/research-snapshots/gambling-participation-and-experience-harm-australia" target="_blank" rel="noopener">46 per cent of gamblers are at risk of harm</a>, including losing their home.</li> <li>Housing unaffordability – soaring prices (and stamp duty) push home ownership out of reach.</li> </ul> Women often face the brunt of these effects, disadvantaged by the gender pay gap, having less in superannuation, often having primary or sole custody of children, and having less secure employment. How can you protect yourself? Thankfully, there are steps we can all take to protect ourselves and our retirement: <ul> <li>Get your foundations right for a strong financial footing – emergency fund, spending and investment plan, insurances, superannuation, estate planning.</li> <li>Make decisions jointly – letting your partner control finances alone means more risk for you and less spending oversight.</li> <li>Have contingency plans – your own bank account, independent financial and retirement plans, insurances, and back-up plans just in case.</li> <li>Get into the market ASAP – even a cheap investment property far from where you live is a financial asset and a roof over your head if needed.</li> <li>Consider co-ownership – if you can’t afford to buy property alone, split the purchase and ongoing costs with an adult child, sibling, or close friend. Alternatively, sub-let a room to offset the costs.</li> <li>Don’t settle for less – avoid accepting an unreasonable separation settlement just to resolve things quickly.</li> <li>Be alert – know the warning signs of scams, elder abuse, gambling addiction and domestic violence to avoid losing everything.</li> <li>Get independent advice – professional legal, accounting, and financial advice can help you build financial independence, create safeguards, and recover faster if disaster does strike.</li> </ul> Overall, the best thing you can do is simply to act. By being proactive instead of burying your head in the sand, your future self stands a much better chance of enjoying a comfortable retirement! Helen Baker is a licensed Australian financial adviser and author of the new book, Money For Life: How to build financial security from firm foundations (Major Street Publishing $32.99). Helen is among the 1% of financial planners who hold a master’s degree in the field. Proceeds from book sales are donated to charities supporting disadvantaged women and children. Find out more at <a style="color: #467886;" title="http://www.onyourowntwofeet.com.au/" href="http://www.onyourowntwofeet.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">www.onyourowntwofeet.com.au</a> Disclaimer: The information in this article is of a general nature only and does not constitute personal financial or product advice. Any opinions or views expressed are those of the authors and do not represent those of people, institutions or organisations the owner may be associated with in a professional or personal capacity unless explicitly stated. Helen Baker is an authorised representative of BPW Partners Pty Ltd AFSL 548754. Image: Shutterstock

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Jeremy Clarkson declares victory over Elon Musk, orders champagne

In news that will surprise absolutely no one, Jeremy Clarkson has once again fired shots at Tesla chief executive Elon Musk, officially declaring himself the winner of a long-running feud that has been about as dramatic as a slow-speed parking lot collision. <a href="https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/seventeen-years-after-that-nice-mr-musk-sued-me-victory-is-mine-z6m5lq90t" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Writing in The Times</a>, Clarkson exulted, "victory is mine", as Tesla’s sales, share price and overall desirability have taken a nosedive faster than a Cybertruck’s resale value. The feud between the two began years ago when Clarkson, in his infinite wisdom and love for combustion engines, gave the original Tesla Roadster a less-than-stellar review on the wildly popular Top Gear. Musk, never one to shy away from a legal skirmish, promptly filed a lawsuit, claiming Clarkson and his team had fabricated breakdowns during filming. The courts, however, disagreed, dismissing Musk’s claims with the legal equivalent of an eye-roll. As Clarkson smugly recalls, "he lost the case, and the appeal, and he’s never really got over it". Now, with Tesla’s fortunes dimming like the headlights of a Model 3 after one too many software updates, Clarkson is relishing the moment. He sarcastically wonders how Musk is handling the turn of events, especially given that "the eco hippies who used to idolise him have turned on his cars". Apparently, those who once saw Tesla as the shining hope of the future are now treating it like an unwanted pair of Crocs – something they were once excited about but now deeply regret. Recent reports show that Tesla vehicles in the US are being vandalised at an alarming rate, possibly by disillusioned former fans or rogue members of Clarkson’s fan club. Meanwhile, sales in major markets like the US and Germany have plummeted by 70 percent. Reuters even reported that Tesla trade-ins have tripled. Of course, Musk, never one to let a good Twitter (or should we say X?) battle pass him by, may eventually respond with his usual blend of memes and cryptic threats to relocate Tesla to Mars. But Clarkson, in his weekend column, seems entirely unbothered. “I should really have sued him back, but I feared he’d call me a paedo, so instead I just waited on the river bank for his body to float past. And now it has.” There’s something almost Shakespearean about the whole affair, except instead of poetic monologues and tragic endings, we get Clarkson smirking and Musk possibly rage-tweeting into the abyss. Meanwhile, Clarkson spares a moment of sympathy for Tesla owners, calling them "deluded fools" who bought into the hype but still work hard to make their monthly payments. "Even though I think it’s nothing more than a wheeled white good, it’s their pride and joy. So it’s not fair for someone with hairy armpits and no job to set fire to it." With a new Amazon motoring show on the horizon, Clarkson will no doubt continue to share his thoughts on Tesla, electric cars and anything else that catches his ire. As for Musk, he’ll likely carry on plotting world domination, launching rockets and possibly developing an AI to create the perfect Twitter comeback. The world keeps turning, and the feud continues. Pass the popcorn. Images: Reddit / Wikicommons Gage Skidmore

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To tip or not to tip? Kyle weighs in on the great debate

In a country where tipping is about as popular as warm beer, Kyle Sandilands has somehow managed to ignite a national debate with his bold approach after revealing his personal tipping policy: doubling the bill. While everyday Australians are grumbling about feeling "under surveillance" by watchful waitstaff, Sandilands has effectively turned the concept of tipping on its head by making it rain on every meal. “Whatever the bill is, I’ll pay that again,” he declared on air, leaving co-host Jackie O and newsreader Brooklyn Ross stunned. The revelation has sparked a flurry of reactions, ranging from admiration to outright panic. Many hospitality workers have suddenly discovered a newfound appreciation for Sandilands, with one Sydney waiter reportedly seen frantically Googling his favourite restaurants in hopes of securing a booking. Meanwhile, local economists are nervously clutching their calculators. "If this catches on, we could see a rapid rise in inflation, an economic boom in hospitality, or Kyle Sandilands accidentally becoming Australia's next Reserve Bank governor," speculated one financial analyst. Not everyone, however, is on board with the tipping craze. Outraged anti-tipping Australians have taken to social media, decrying the practice as "un-Australian" and a gateway to the country becoming “the 51st state of America”. One particularly passionate commenter warned, "This is how it starts! First, it's tipping, then it's calling football ‘soccer’, and next thing you know, we’re driving on the right side of the road!" Despite the uproar, Sandilands seems unfazed. With his unique approach, he may have found a loophole in Australia’s new EFTPOS tipping culture – if everyone else sticks to the modest 5-25% suggested range, he might actually be saving money. “You’re doubling the cost,” Ross pointed out in disbelief. “I’ll save big time,” Sandilands responded, seemingly unconcerned with mathematical realities. As for whether his fellow Australians will follow suit or hold the line against tipping tyranny, only time will tell. One thing’s for sure: if you see Kyle Sandilands dining out, you might want to consider switching tables – and bringing an extra billfold. Images: KIIS FM

Money & Banking

“They are treating us like chumps": Karl fires up over supermarket practices

In a heated interview on the Today show, Karl Stefanovic confronted Treasurer Jim Chalmers over the conduct of major supermarket chains, accusing them of treating Australian consumers like "chumps". The exchange followed the release of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s (ACCC) final report into supermarket practices, highlighting concerns over price-gouging, misleading discounts and "shrinkflation". The ACCC’s inquiry found that the dominance of Woolworths, which controls 38% of the national grocery market, and Coles, which holds 29%, has resulted in an “oligopolistic” effect. Despite this, the regulator refrained from endorsing Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s call for greater powers to dismantle the supermarket giants, cautioning that there was no “silver bullet” solution. Treasurer Chalmers acknowledged the ongoing cost-of-living pressures, saying that “Australians are still feeling that pressure at the checkout. And that’s why we’re cracking down on the supermarkets.” He added that the government was working to foster greater competition in the industry to prevent further consumer exploitation. However, Stefanovic challenged Chalmers, arguing that no significant changes had been made to curb supermarket dominance. “They are treating us like chumps and they continue to,” he said. “And I’ve not seen anything that’s going to stop them from doing that.” Chalmers then defended the government’s economic policies, citing key improvements including declining inflation, rising real wages and economic growth. “We know that people are still under pressure,” he admitted but insisted that progress was being made. In response to the ACCC report, Coles issued a statement claiming the company also faces financial pressures, including rising rents and electricity costs. “We do not control these inflationary costs in the economy – but they contribute to higher grocery prices for Australian households,” the statement read. Coles also defended its pricing strategy, stating that grocery inflation (excluding tobacco) remained at just 1% for the first half of the financial year. The company assured that it is reviewing the ACCC’s recommendations and has already implemented changes to improve pricing transparency and customer communication. Images: The Today show

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Drivers warned of new fines ahead of major change to speeding cameras

Transport officials in New South Wales are set to expand the use of average speed cameras beyond heavy vehicles to include all motorists. This initiative, which will take effect on May 1, is aimed at curbing the rising number of road fatalities across the state. Currently, average speed cameras, also known as point-to-point cameras, are used to only monitor heavy vehicles. However, cameras along two major highways – a 15km stretch of the Pacific Highway between Kew and Lake Innes, and the Hume Highway between Coolac and Gundagai – will soon track the speeds of all vehicles, according to Transport for NSW. These locations have been identified as high-risk crash zones. The implementation follows a steady rise in road fatalities across Australia in recent years, prompting authorities to take stronger measures against speeding. Unlike traditional speed cameras that capture speed at a single point, average speed cameras measure a vehicle's speed over a set distance. By recording the time a vehicle passes through two fixed points, authorities can determine whether the vehicle exceeded the legal speed limit along that stretch. This method discourages drivers from merely slowing down for fixed cameras before speeding up again. NSW imposes significant penalties for speeding, with fines varying based on the severity of the offence. Light vehicle drivers caught exceeding the speed limit by more than 45 km/h face a maximum fine of $3,300, while heavy vehicle drivers can be fined up to $5,500. Additionally, offenders risk a minimum six-month licence disqualification. To ease the transition, the new enforcement system will undergo a two-month trial period. From May 1 to June 30, motorists caught exceeding speed limits in the designated areas will receive warning letters rather than fines. However, starting July 1, full penalties, including fines and demerit points, will apply. Dr Ingrid Johnston, CEO of the Australasian College of Road Safety (ACRS) spoke recently about the need for more urgent measures to minimise road trauma. She has advocated for broader road safety initiatives, including speed cameras and reduced speed limits in areas with high pedestrian and cyclist activity. NSW Minister for Roads, John Graham, also reinforced the importance of the initiative, citing global studies that show average speed cameras significantly reduce road injuries and fatalities. "We know that speed remains our biggest killer on the road, contributing to 41 per cent of all fatalities over the past decade," he stated. The government aims to ensure motorists are well-informed about the changes. All affected locations will feature warning signs, and a community awareness campaign will support the transition. Image: Shutterstock

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After a century of Monday to Friday, could the 4-day week finally be coming to Australia?

<div class="theconversation-article-body">The reality of shorter working hours could be one step closer for many Australians, pending the outcome of the federal election. The Greens, who could control crucial cross bench votes in a hung parliament, have announced plans for a <a href="https://greens.org.au/news/media-release/greens-launch-4-day-work-week-election-policy">four-day</a> working week, with no loss of pay. They say the policy would alleviate stress and burn out, and increase women’s participation in the workforce. Earning the same money for fewer hours would appeal to most workers. But is it too good to be true? Could it really be rolled out cost free to all workplaces, especially to “client facing” companies and service providers? Or does research suggest the Greens could be onto something? <h2>The Greens’ plan</h2> The Greens’ policy would involve a new National Institute for the Four Day Work Week and a test case through the Fair Work Commission. A series of national trials would be set up in a number of different industries, whereby workers would work 80% of their normal hours, while maintaining 100% of their pay. According to Greens Senator Barbara Pocock, it’s a win-win for everyone: <blockquote> It can increase productivity, reduce absenteeism, improve recruitment and retention and give employees more time to manage their home life. This change will allow workers to create a working week that works for them. </blockquote> <h2>The 100:80:100 model</h2> The four-day work week being proposed in this instance is commonly regarded as the 100:80:100 model. It delivers 100% of the pay, for 80% of the hours, in <a href="https://www.4dayweek.com/news-posts/100-80-100-rule">return</a> for maintaining 100% of productivity. This is unlike other forms of shorter working weeks, which compress five days’ worth of work into four longer days. This obviously disadvantages some employees. Recent <a href="https://figshare.swinburne.edu.au/articles/report/Emerging_Four_Day_Work_Week_Trends_in_Australia_New_insights_based_on_interviews_with_Australian_firms_who_have_already_adopted_4DWW_arrangements_Preview_report_/26282311?file=47647063">research</a> conducted by Swinburne University of Technology involved interviews with ten Australian firms that have already adopted the 100:80:100 model. They were a mixture of small and medium sized private sector businesses, including management consulting firms, a shipping and logistics company, and recruitment and marketing agencies. The research underlined the potential for a range of positive outcomes for both employers and employees. Workers reported having better work-life balance, more time to complete “life administration” tasks, and more time to invest in hobbies, exercise, wellness and self-care. Bosses cited productivity gains, reduced sick days, and significant improvements in recruitment and retention rates. However, the 100:80:100 model is viewed with scepticism in some quarters. There is still doubt that productivity and output would be maintained, or in some cases improved, when workers are working one day fewer per week. Also, there could be costs associated with the implementation of this work model for front-line roles, such as retail, schools, hospitals and nursing homes. Additional workers may need to be hired, at extra expense, to cover the hours dropped by the existing workforce. <h2>100 years of working 5 days a week</h2> The year 2026 will mark the 100th anniversary of the five-day work week. It was car maker Henry Ford who <a href="https://teachingamericanhistory.org/document/henry-fords-five-day-week/">reduced</a> the working week in the United States from six days to five. Other sectors and countries followed suit. This was at a time when the average life expectancy of Australian workers was just 55 and households typically only had one bread-winner. Despite the time saved by the many technological breakthroughs in the past 100 years – from the photocopier, desktop computer and fax machine, to the internet, mobile phones and AI – the average Australian is now <a href="https://futurework.org.au/report/taking-up-the-right-to-disconnect-unsatisfactory-working-hours-and-unpaid-overtime/">working longer hours</a> in paid and unpaid labour than ever before. The Greens point out Australian society is changing. More women and carers are either in the workforce or would be encouraged into the workforce by more flexible arrangements: <blockquote> yet we are constrained by archaic labour laws that see the fruits of our efforts swallowed up in profits for bosses and shareholders. </blockquote> The role of generative AI technologies in the workplace may also deliver benefits to workers. Separate Swinburne <a href="https://figshare.swinburne.edu.au/articles/report/Generative_AI_at_work_Empowering_employee_mental_wellbeing/27252948">research</a> has revealed an increasing expectation among workers that they will receive a share in the time saved by future technologies in the form of improved work-life balance and wellbeing gains. <h2>Time to enter the 21st century</h2> Earlier this year, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/money/2025/jan/27/two-hundred-uk-companies-sign-up-for-permanent-four-day-working-week">200 UK companies</a> signed up to the 100:80:100 model, as part of a campaign to “reinvent Britain’s working week”. Large scale trials are also underway in <a href="https://4dayweek.io/country/canada">Canada</a> and several <a href="https://www.euronews.com/next/2024/02/02/the-four-day-week-which-countries-have-embraced-it-and-how-s-it-going-so-far">European</a> countries. The global interest in a shorter working week is not surprising, and has likely been fuelled by the COVID pandemic, which has caused workers and employers to re-imagine their working lives. If the Greens are in a position to leverage any balance of power after the coming election, it could be Australia’s turn to recognise the conventional five-day working week is no longer fit for purpose.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/252379/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> By <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-l-hopkins-255434">John L. Hopkins</a>, Associate Professor of Management, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/swinburne-university-of-technology-767">Swinburne University of Technology</a> This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-a-century-of-monday-to-friday-could-the-4-day-week-finally-be-coming-to-australia-252379">original article</a>. </div>

Money & Banking

Farewell, Your Majesty: Major change coming to Aussie fiver

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has announced a new theme for the Aussie fiver, designed to honour the “enduring emotional, spiritual and physical connection of First Nations peoples to Country”. “This inspiring theme will guide the creation of an artwork that will feature on the redesigned banknote,” said Michelle McPhee, RBA’s Assistant Governor of Business Services. The selection of this theme followed an extensive national campaign, receiving over 2,100 theme nominations from the public. For the first time since 1992, the $5 note will not feature the late Queen Elizabeth II, who had appeared on the denomination for more than 30 years. Breaking with tradition, the RBA confirmed that the redesigned note would not bear a portrait of any monarch, meaning King Charles will also be absent from the new design. However, the reverse side of the note will continue to depict the Australian Parliament building. Since the 1960s, the $5 banknote has undergone four major redesigns, with the most recent update in 2016. When Queen Elizabeth II’s portrait was first introduced in 1992, it replaced humanitarian Caroline Chisholm, a decision that was met with criticism at the time. The RBA defended its choice, citing Australia’s status as a constitutional monarchy and the tradition of including the reigning monarch on at least one banknote. The new banknote is expected to take several years to be designed, printed and circulated. The process of selecting an artist for the design is currently underway, with more details to be revealed in the coming months. The development of the note will also involve incorporating advanced security features to prevent counterfeiting. While the new design is in progress, the existing $5 note will continue to be issued. Meanwhile, Australian coins, which are produced by the Royal Australian Mint, will maintain the tradition of featuring the monarch. Images: RBA

Money & Banking

Desperate Aussie dad sparks brutal immigration debate on Q+A

An Australian father, fearing that another rent hike could push his family into homelessness, directly challenged the federal government’s immigration policies on national television. Morgan Cox, a father of a one-year-old, raised his concerns on ABC’s Q+A program on Monday night. The episode, broadcast from the federal election battleground of Wyong on the Central Coast of New South Wales, saw an emotionally charged exchange between Cox and Federal Health Minister Mark Butler. Cox detailed his dire financial situation, explaining that he had recently received notice of a $180-per-week rent increase – an additional $10,000 annually. “I tried to find a cheaper place and there just aren’t any," Cox said. "What little is available, there’s dozens of people lined up. Lots of them are immigrants and they have plenty more money than I can possibly get.” The audience applauded as he pressed the government on whether it planned to curb immigration to align with housing availability. In response, Butler expressed sympathy, acknowledging the widespread struggles with housing affordability. “I’m so sorry you’re going through that and it’s a story we all hear right across the country, particularly in the bigger states around the big cities,” Butler said. He then noted that the government was working to bring immigration levels down to sustainable levels, but said that it is difficult to control departures of temporary residents. “What we’ve found after those efforts is that the arrival numbers have returned to about pre-Covid levels, but we’re not managing the exits – the people returning home after studying or short-term skilled work. We’re working very hard on that,” Butler explained. However, Cox appeared visibly frustrated, questioning why the government could not simply halt immigration until housing supply could meet demand. Former NSW Treasurer Matt Kean, also on the panel, argued that the issue was more complex than immigration alone. “The reality is that we need more housing supply," he said. "More supply into the system means more availability for renters, for homeowners – more choice.” He further criticised excessive bureaucracy in housing development. “There’s way too much red tape and green tape stopping housing developments, whether it’s Sydney, Melbourne, or right across Australia,” he added. As housing affordability continues to be a pressing concern for many Australians, the government clearly faces increasing pressure to strike a balance between population growth and adequate housing solutions. Images: ABC

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Farewell, Your Majesty: Major change coming to Aussie fiver

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