Aussie bank says good news on the way for homeowners

Bendigo Bank is forecasting four interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), including one later this month, following the release of key inflation figures that show underlying inflation has returned to the central bank’s target range for the first time in over three years.

According to Bendigo Bank’s chief economist David Robertson, the RBA is expected to pivot from its primary focus on inflation to broader economic concerns such as employment and growth. “The RBA has been dealing with global inflation shock for three years, but its concerns are quickly moving from price stability and inflation to protecting growth and jobs,” Robertson said.

The RBA's preferred measure of underlying inflation, the trimmed mean, fell from 3.3% to 2.9%, marking a return to the target range of 2–3% for the first time since December 2021. Headline inflation held steady at 2.4%.

Robertson said the new inflation data sets the stage for a rate cut on May 20, with the only remaining uncertainty being the size of the cut. “The next cut is almost certain for May 20, but of what magnitude?” he said, suggesting a 35 basis point reduction was more likely than a larger move. “A larger 50 basis point cut in May is most unlikely unless markets become dislocated like in the GFC.”

Bendigo Bank is forecasting a total of four rate cuts, including the expected May move, bringing the cash rate down to approximately 3.1% by the end of the year. Market analysts are even more aggressive, pricing in five cuts that could take the rate to around 2.8%.

Despite the improved inflation outlook, global economic headwinds remain a significant concern. Robertson pointed to ongoing market volatility driven by US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and uncertainty surrounding global trade flows. “Equity markets have been clawing back some of their losses but there are still difficult times ahead,” he said. “Tariffs are generally bad for everyone but especially problematic for the country imposing them.”

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised global growth projections in light of the economic tensions, cutting its forecast for US GDP growth from 2.7% to 1.8% and China’s from 4.6% to 4%. Australia, too, has felt the impact, with the IMF reducing its 2025 growth estimate from 2.1% to 1.6%. Bendigo Bank has adjusted its own forecast accordingly, downgrading Australia’s expected growth to 2%.

With inflation easing and global pressures mounting, the RBA appears poised to shift gears from restraint to support. “The environment is changing quickly,” said Robertson. “It’s time for the RBA to support the broader economy again.”

Image: Bendigo Bank