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What causes the 'winter blues' and why is it more common in women?

<div class="theconversation-article-body">Winter is here. As the days grow shorter and the skies turn darker, you might start to feel a bit “off”. You may notice a dip in your mood or energy levels. Maybe you’re less motivated to do things you previously enjoyed in the warmer months.</p> <p>The “winter blues” can feel like an inevitable part of life. You might feel sluggish or less social, but you can still get on with your day.</p> <p>However, if your winter blues are making everyday life difficult and interfering with your work and relationships, it could be the sign of something more serious.</p> <p>Seasonal affective disorder is more than a seasonal slump – it’s a <a href="https://www.nhs.uk/mental-health/conditions/seasonal-affective-disorder-sad/symptoms/">recognised psychiatric condition</a>. Here’s what to look for and how to get help.</p> <h2>What is seasonal affective disorder?</h2> <p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022395623001899?via%3Dihub">The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders</a> officially recognises seasonal affective disorder as a recurrent major depressive disorder “with seasonal pattern”.</p> <p>In other words, the condition shares many symptoms with major depressive disorder, but it also follows a seasonal rhythm. While this might be most common in winter, the disorder can also occur in <a href="https://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/publications/seasonal-affective-disorder">summer</a>.</p> <p><a href="https://www.nhs.uk/mental-health/conditions/seasonal-affective-disorder-sad/symptoms/">Symptoms include</a>:</p> <ul> <li> <p>persistent low mood or feelings of sadness</p> </li> <li> <p>loss of interest in activities you once enjoyed</p> </li> <li> <p>low energy and fatigue, even after lots of sleep</p> </li> <li> <p>changes in appetite</p> </li> <li> <p>weight gain or weight loss</p> </li> <li> <p>difficulty concentrating</p> </li> <li> <p>sleeping more or less than usual</p> </li> <li> <p>feelings of hopelessness or worthlessness</p> </li> <li> <p>in some cases, thoughts of self-harm or suicide.</p> </li> </ul> <p>Research suggests seasonal affective disorder affects up to <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.2147/PRBM.S114906">10% of the global population</a>.</p> <p>Although it can affect anyone, it is more common in <a href="https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4673349/">women</a>, people aged between <a href="https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4673349/">18 and 30 years</a>, and those living <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/08039480902799040">far from the equator</a>, where winter daylight hours are especially limited.</p> <p>A <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022395623001899?via%3Dihub">review</a> of the Australian research on seasonal affective disorder showed the highest proportion of Australians with seasonal affective disorder was found in the most southern state, Tasmania (9% of the population).</p> <h2>What causes it?</h2> <p>Unfortunately, the exact cause of seasonal affective disorder is still poorly understood.</p> <p>Some theories propose it is primarily caused by a lack of light in the environment, although we are not exactly sure how this leads to depression.</p> <p>As sunlight is responsible for the production of vitamin D, some have suggested a lack of vitamin D is what causes depression. However, the evidence for such a link is <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2530312022000431">inconclusive</a>.</p> <p><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.31887/DCNS.2007.9.3/alewy">Others</a> suggest a lack of light in winter delays the circadian rhythms which regulate our sleep/wake cycle. Poor sleep is related to many mental health difficulties, <a href="https://theconversation.com/theres-a-strong-link-between-anxiety-and-depression-and-sleep-problems-and-it-goes-both-ways-76145">including depression</a>.</p> <h2>Seasonal affective disorder can be treated</h2> <p>Fortunately, there are several evidence-based treatments for seasonal affective disorder. Relief may be found through a combination of approaches.</p> <p><strong>Bright light therapy</strong> is usually the <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1155/2017/6867957">first treatment recommended</a> for seasonal affective disorder. It involves sitting near a specially designed lightbox (with a strength of 10,000 lux) for about 20 to 30 minutes a day to mimic natural sunlight and help regulate the body’s internal clock.</p> <p><strong>Cognitive behavioural therapy</strong> aims to help people develop some flexibility around <a href="https://www.nhs.uk/mental-health/conditions/seasonal-affective-disorder-sad/treatment/">the negative thoughts</a> that might maintain seasonal affective disorder symptoms (for example, “I am worthless because I never get up to anything meaningful in winter”).</p> <p><strong>Lifestyle changes</strong> such as regular exercise, time spent outdoors (even on gloomy days), a balanced diet, and good sleep hygiene <a href="https://www.nhs.uk/mental-health/conditions/seasonal-affective-disorder-sad/treatment/">can all support recovery</a>.</p> <p><strong>Antidepressants</strong> – especially selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) – <a href="https://www.nhs.uk/mental-health/conditions/seasonal-affective-disorder-sad/treatment/">may be prescribed</a> when symptoms are moderate to severe, or when other treatments have not worked.</p> <h2>What else helps?</h2> <p>Even those without seasonal affective disorder might need to fight the winter blues. So, what works?</p> <p><strong>Prioritise social connection</strong></p> <p>Schedule regular, achievable and pleasant <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00127-024-02722-1">activities with friends</a>, such as trivia at the pub or a brisk walk.</p> <p><strong>Reframe winter</strong></p> <p>Rather than dreading the cold, see if you can embrace what is special about this time of year. The mindset of “<a href="https://denmark.dk/people-and-culture/hygge">hygge</a>” (a Danish and Norwegian term for cosiness and contentment) may help.</p> <p>Let winter be your excuse for snuggling on your couch with a thick blanket and hot chocolate while catching up on books and TV shows. Or see if there are any winter-specific activities (such as night markets) where you live.</p> <p><strong>Maximise daylight</strong></p> <p>Taking a walk during lunchtime <a href="https://www.nhs.uk/mental-health/conditions/seasonal-affective-disorder-sad/treatment/">when the sun is out</a>, even briefly, can make a difference.</p> <h2>The bottom line</h2> <p>If your “winter blues” last more than two weeks, start interfering with your daily life or feel overwhelming, then it might be time to seek professional help.</p> <p>Speaking to your GP or mental health professional can help you get support early and prevent symptoms getting worse.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/259375/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><em>By <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kelvin-shiu-fung-wong-1468053">Kelvin (Shiu Fung) Wong</a>, Senior Lecturer in Clinical Psychology, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/swinburne-university-of-technology-767">Swinburne University of Technology</a></em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/trouble-getting-out-of-bed-signs-the-winter-blues-may-be-something-more-serious-259375">original article</a>.</em></p> <p><em>Image: Pexels / </em></p> </div>

Caring

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Cheapest supermarket for winter shopping revealed

<p>Aldi has once again cemented its reputation as Australia’s most budget-friendly supermarket, topping <a href="https://www.choice.com.au/shopping/everyday-shopping/supermarkets/articles/cheapest-groceries-australia" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CHOICE’s latest quarterly survey</a> on the cost of winter groceries.</p> <p>The consumer advocacy group compared the prices of an average basket of 14 common grocery items – including staples such as milk, chicken, and fresh fruit, as well as popular winter additions like vegetable stock, drinking chocolate, and butternut pumpkin. Aldi offered the most affordable basket at $55.35 without specials, with Woolworths close behind at $58.92, followed by Coles at $59.22 and IGA at $69.74.</p> <p>“Aldi had the best deal for shoppers looking to keep cosy this winter,” said CHOICE CEO Ashley de Silva. “Without specials, Woolworths had the cheapest chicken breasts and pumpkin, while Coles offered the best price on apples. IGA came out on top for carrots and garlic. For all other products in our basket, Aldi is your best bet.”</p> <p>When specials were taken into account, Aldi still led the pack, with its basket dropping to $54.44. Coles followed at $57.67, Woolworths at $58.86, and IGA at $67.54.</p> <p>“All up, if you’re planning a hearty porridge breakfast or wanting a cup of hot chocolate to keep you feeling snug, Aldi should be your first stop,” de Silva added. He also encouraged shoppers to look beyond supermarket choice for savings: “Checking the unit pricing, keeping an eye on specials, shopping around, and trying out house brand products can all add up to significant savings.”</p> <p>CHOICE field workers collected prices in March 2025 at 104 supermarkets across 27 locations nationwide. The group’s base basket includes full cream milk, Weet-Bix, Royal Gala apples, carrots, Cavendish bananas, strawberries and chicken breast fillets. This quarter’s additional winter items were vegetable stock, sour cream, drinking chocolate, butternut pumpkin, quick oats, garlic and onions.</p> <p>The findings come as supermarket prices remain a hot political issue. Cost-of-living pressures and alleged price gouging by major chains dominated debate in the last federal parliament. During the recent election campaign, Labor pledged to introduce laws to crack down on price gouging, while the Coalition promised to introduce divestiture powers that would allow the ACCC to force supermarkets to sell off stores to boost competition.</p> <p><em>Image: Pexels / Gustavo Fring</em></p>

Money & Banking

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It’s almost winter. Why is Australia still so hot?

<div class="theconversation-article-body"> <p>This year, for many Australians, it feels like summer never left. The sunny days and warm nights have continued well into autumn. Even now, in May, it’s still unusually warm.</p> <p>Much of the southern half of the continent is experiencing both unseasonable warmth and dry conditions. This is linked to persistent high atmospheric pressure (called “blocking”) to the south and southeast of Australia.</p> <p>While temperatures will fall across southern Australia as we approach the winter solstice, early indications are that this winter will be a warm one. Rainfall predictions are less certain.</p> <p>The extra warmth we’ve experienced raises obvious questions about the influence of human-caused climate change. The warming signal is clear and it’s a sign of things to come.</p> <h2>A warm and dry autumn for many</h2> <p><a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp?colour=colour&amp;time=latest&amp;step=1&amp;map=meananom&amp;period=month&amp;area=nat">March</a> and <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp?colour=colour&amp;time=latest&amp;step=0&amp;map=meananom&amp;period=month&amp;area=nat">April</a> brought unseasonal heat to much of Australia.</p> <p>March was widely hot, with temperatures several degrees above normal across much of the country. But April’s heat was largely restricted to the southeast.</p> <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/666591/original/file-20250507-68-vjvcb5.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/666591/original/file-20250507-68-vjvcb5.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/666591/original/file-20250507-68-vjvcb5.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=450&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/666591/original/file-20250507-68-vjvcb5.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=450&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/666591/original/file-20250507-68-vjvcb5.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=450&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/666591/original/file-20250507-68-vjvcb5.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=566&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/666591/original/file-20250507-68-vjvcb5.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=566&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/666591/original/file-20250507-68-vjvcb5.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=566&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" alt="Graph of rising Australian-average temperatures in March from 1900-2025" /></a><figcaption><span class="caption">Australia had its hottest March on record and the heat has continued, especially in Victoria and parts of New South Wales.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=tmean&amp;area=aus&amp;season=03&amp;ave_yr=0&amp;ave_period=6190">Bureau of Meteorology</a></span></figcaption></figure> <p>Victoria had its <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=tmean&amp;area=vic&amp;season=04&amp;ave_yr=0&amp;ave_period=6190">warmest April</a> on record, and parts of the state experienced temperatures more than 3°C above normal across both March and April.</p> <p>Temperatures normally fall quite quickly over the southeast of Australia during April and May as the days shorten and the continent’s interior cools. But this year, southern Australia was unusually warm at the start of May. Some locations experienced days with maximum temperatures more than 10°C above normal for the time of year.</p> <p>Records were broken in <a href="https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/weather/hobart-parts-of-melbourne-sweat-through-hottest-may-night-on-record-as-warm-windy-weather-sweeps-across-australias-southeast/news-story/8b1c76fc40c7a84842a5aaf6a57eb038">Hobart</a> and <a href="https://7news.com.au/news/jane-bunn-weather-tuesdays-balmy-morning-in-melbourne-was-just-shy-of-all-time-record-c-18600201">parts of Melbourne</a>, which had their warmest May nights since observations began.</p> <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/666592/original/file-20250507-62-nf86bk.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/666592/original/file-20250507-62-nf86bk.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/666592/original/file-20250507-62-nf86bk.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=412&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/666592/original/file-20250507-62-nf86bk.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=412&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/666592/original/file-20250507-62-nf86bk.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=412&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/666592/original/file-20250507-62-nf86bk.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=518&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/666592/original/file-20250507-62-nf86bk.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=518&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/666592/original/file-20250507-62-nf86bk.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=518&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" alt="GIF of Australian daily maximum temperature anomalies for 1st to 6th May" /></a><figcaption><span class="caption">The start of May saw daytime maximum temperatures across much of Australia well above average for the time of year.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp?colour=colour&amp;time=history%2Fnat%2F2025050520250505&amp;step=0&amp;map=maxanom&amp;period=daily&amp;area=nat">Bureau of Meteorology</a></span></figcaption></figure> <p>While Queensland and the New South Wales coast have had very wet spells, including downpours from Tropical Cyclone Alfred at the start of March, other parts of Australia have been quite dry.</p> <p>The area between Adelaide and Melbourne has been exceptionally dry. <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps/rainfall/?variable=rainfall&amp;map=drought&amp;period=3month&amp;region=nat&amp;year=2025&amp;month=04&amp;day=30">A drought is unfolding</a> in the region after a <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps/rainfall/?variable=rainfall&amp;map=drought&amp;period=12month&amp;region=nat&amp;year=2025&amp;month=04&amp;day=30">severe lack of rainfall</a>, with deficits stretching back over the past year or so. Western Tasmania is also suffering from a severe lack of rainfall since the start of autumn, although welcome rain fell in the past week.</p> <p>And it’s not just on land that unusual heat has been observed. The seas around Australia have been warmer than normal, causing severe coral bleaching to <a href="https://theconversation.com/synchronised-bleaching-ningaloo-and-the-great-barrier-reef-are-bleaching-in-unison-for-the-first-time-252906">the west and east</a> of the continent, <a href="https://www.epa.sa.gov.au/environmental_info/water_quality/harmful-algal-blooms">harmful algal blooms</a> and other ecosystem disruptions.</p> <h2>Blocking highs largely to blame</h2> <p>A high pressure system has dominated over the south and southeast of Australia over the past few months.</p> <p>High pressure in the Tasman Sea can sometimes get stuck there for a few days. This leads to what’s known as “blocking”, when the usual passage of weather systems moving from west to east is obstructed. This can lock in weather patterns for several days or even a week.</p> <p>Repeated blocking occurred this autumn. As winds move anticlockwise around high pressure systems in the Southern Hemisphere, blocking highs in the Tasman Sea can bring moist, onshore winds to the New South Wales and Queensland coasts, increasing rainfall. But such high pressure systems also bring drier conditions for the interior of the southeast and much of Victoria and South Australia.</p> <p>Often, these high pressure systems also bring northerly winds to Victoria, and this can cause warmer conditions across much of the state.</p> <p>High pressure systems also tend to bring more clear and sunny conditions, which increases daytime temperatures in particular. Air in high pressure systems moves down towards the surface and this process causes warming, too.</p> <p>Australia sits between the Pacific and Indian Oceans and is subject to their variability, so we often look there to help explain what’s happening with Australia’s climate. In autumn though, our climate influences, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, are less active and have weaker relationships with Australian climate than at other times of year. Neither of these climate influences is <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/influences">in a strong phase</a> at the moment.</p> <h2>A warm winter on the cards</h2> <p>One big question is how long the heat will last. In parts of southeast Australia, including <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/cvg/av?p_stn_num=086071&amp;p_prim_element_index=0&amp;p_display_type=statGraph&amp;period_of_avg=ALL&amp;normals_years=allYearOfData&amp;staticPage=">Melbourne</a>, average temperatures drop quickly at this time of year as we approach the winter solstice.</p> <p>However, the seasonal outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology points to a high likelihood of a relatively <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/temperature/maximum/median/seasonal/0">warm winter</a>.</p> <p>Australians rarely escape having a winter without any significant cold spells, but the long-range forecast suggests we should anticipate above-normal temperatures on average. Both daytime maximum temperatures and nighttime minimum temperatures are expected to be above average generally this winter.</p> <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Y5NIa7X2H-s?wmode=transparent&amp;start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe><figcaption><span class="caption">Climate and water long-range forecast, issued 1 May 2025 (Bureau of Meteorology)</span></figcaption></figure> <h2>Global warming is here</h2> <p>The elephant in the room is climate change. Human-caused climate change is increasing autumn temperatures and the frequency of late season heat events. As greenhouse gas emissions continue at a <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-carbon-emissions-inch-upwards-in-2024-despite-progress-on-evs-renewables-and-deforestation-243133">record pace</a>, expect continued warming and a greater chance of autumn heatwaves in future.</p> <p>The effect of climate change on rainfall is less clear though. For the vast majority of Australia, there is <a href="https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/regional-information">high uncertainty</a> as to whether autumn will become wetter or drier as the world warms.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/256071/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><em>By <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-king-103126">Andrew King</a>, Associate Professor in Climate Science, ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a></em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-almost-winter-why-is-australia-still-so-hot-256071">original article</a>.</em></p> <p><em>Image: Supplied</em></p> </div>

Travel Trouble

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“Mum always found the joy”: Beatrice and Eugenie open up on royal divorce

<p>Princess Beatrice and Princess Eugenie have spoken candidly about the impact of their parents’ divorce and the enduring strength of their mother, Sarah Ferguson, Duchess of York.</p> <p>Appearing on the "Lessons from our Mothers" podcast, hosted by Isabella Branson and Cressida Bonas – actress and former girlfriend of Prince Harry – the royal sisters shared heartfelt reflections on their upbringing and the lessons imparted by their mother during challenging times.</p> <p>Beatrice recalled the difficult period during their parents' separation, which began in 1992 when she was just eight years old and Eugenie was six. Despite the emotional turmoil, she remembered it as a time still filled with positivity and a sense of adventure, thanks to their mother’s optimistic spirit.</p> <p>“Mum's ability to sort of jump into any situation,” Beatrice said, was something she admired and now emulates. “There was always an adventure to be had. Even during some of the harder times through divorce and through challenging moments… she had an ability to kind of jump into things with two feet.”</p> <p>She added that those early memories are precious and formative: “It's this sort of way with which she just brought that joy to moments.”</p> <p>Prince Andrew and the Duchess of York, affectionately known as "Fergie", were married in 1986 and formally divorced in 1996. Long naval deployments and conflicting responsibilities are believed to have contributed to the breakdown of their marriage.</p> <p>In a 2007 interview with <em>Harper’s Bazaar</em>, Fergie explained, “I wanted to work; it's not right for a princess of the royal house to be commercial, so Andrew and I decided to make the divorce official so I could go off and get a job.”</p> <p>Despite the separation, the couple have maintained a close relationship, cohabiting in separate wings of the Royal Lodge since 2008. They often refer to themselves as the "happiest divorced couple", setting a rare example of post-divorce harmony.</p> <p><em>Images: Instagram</em></p>

Family & Pets

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"He was just a genius": Shock after former AFL star dies at just 42

<p>Former AFL player Andrew Krakouer has passed away at the age of 42, prompting an outpouring of grief from former teammates, coaches and the broader football community.</p> <p>Krakouer, who played for Richmond and Collingwood, reportedly suffered a suspected heart attack at a family home in Perth on Sunday. His sudden passing has left many in shock, especially those who played alongside him during his impressive AFL career.</p> <p>Having played 102 games for the Tigers, Krakouer made a remarkable return to elite football after a personal setback, going on to play 35 matches for the Magpies. He was a key player in Collingwood’s 2011 grand final against Geelong, where he kicked three goals.</p> <p>Before his Collingwood stint, Krakouer dominated in the WAFL, winning the Sandover Medal in 2010 and delivering a best-on-ground performance in Swan Districts' premiership victory. His 42-disposal, four-goal effort in that grand final remains one of the greatest individual displays in WAFL history.</p> <p>Bouncing back from time in prison, Krakouer was recruited by Collingwood ahead of the 2011 season. He made an instant impact, scoring 35 goals across 23 games and winning Mark of the Year for his spectacular high-flying grab. However, his career was hampered by an ACL injury in early 2012. Despite this setback, he made a strong return later that year, featuring in three finals and kicking four goals in the qualifying final against Port Adelaide.</p> <p>Following a limited 2013 season, he was delisted but continued to be involved in football through media roles. He appeared on the <em>Marngrook Footy Show</em> and later co-hosted <em>Yokayi Footy</em>, also contributing as a commentator on both TV and radio.</p> <p>Tributes have poured in from former teammates and coaches across the country, commemorating Krakouer’s talent and character.</p> <p>“Rest in peace Andrew Krakouer. A beautiful man who was loved by all his teammates. Always greeted you with a hug and a smile. Love to Jimmy and Andrew’s daughters and all his family. Very sad day,” said Richmond great Matthew Richardson.</p> <p>Fellow ex-Tiger and former club CEO Brendon Gale also expressed his sorrow. “So saddened by the tragic and unexpected passing of Andrew Krakouer. Krak was a special talent — but more than that, he was a deeply loved husband, father, son, teammate, and friend. My condolences are with the Krakouer family and all who loved him. Rest easy Krak.”</p> <p>Collingwood’s former coach Nathan Buckley was visibly shaken upon hearing the news while live on radio. “That’s really sad news. That’s tragic, so young at 42,” Buckley said on SEN. “A really calm, quiet teammate, who was respectful and went about his business. I really enjoyed the years with him, that’s really sad for his family and his mates.”</p> <p>Buckley also paid tribute to Krakouer’s footballing prowess, particularly his ability to produce spectacular moments on the field. “We’d get him in whenever we could,” Buckley recalled. “He was just a genius. He was just a player who could do the special things. The hanger he took in 2011 (to win Mark of the Year) was elite.</p> <p>“He just loved the game, found a way to impact, and could do things that other players couldn’t do. He was exceptional.”</p> <p>Krakouer came from a legendary footballing family. His father, Jim, and uncle, Phil, were WAFL and North Melbourne stars in the 1980s, while his cousin, Nathan, played for Port Adelaide and Gold Coast.</p> <p>AFL chief executive Andrew Dillon also extended condolences. “We send our sincere condolences to Andrew’s family and many friends across football,” Dillon said. “To lose him at such an early age is a tragedy, and we hope there can be some peace for his family in this heart-breaking and difficult time.</p> <p>“To all his past teammates at Richmond, Collingwood, the team at AFL media, and all Indigenous players and staff across the industry, our thoughts are with you all.”</p> <p>Krakouer’s impact on the game and his ability to inspire others will not soon be forgotten.</p> <p><em>Images: Instagram</em></p>

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Andrew O'Keefe faces more drug charges

<p>Troubled former TV host Andrew O'Keefe has once again faced court over allegations of driving under the influence of drugs. </p> <p>Andrew O’Keefe, 53, was stopped at 11:30am on July 28th for random testing while driving his Mercedes in Rose Bay, in Sydney’s eastern suburbs.</p> <p>Police say he recorded a positive result for the roadside drug test, while he returned a negative result for the roadside breath test.</p> <p>The former <em>Deal or No Deal</em> host was taken to Waverley Police Station where he underwent a second oral fluid test that returned another positive reading.</p> <p>He was charged with driving a vehicle with an illicit drug present in his system.</p> <p>The former host of The Chase was represented by his lawyer Jahan Kalantar in Waverley Local Court on Monday, where Magistrate Stephen Barlow adjourned the matter until early next month.</p> <p>O’Keefe will remain out on bail.</p> <p>The new charge comes after O’Keefe received a 30-month community corrections order and $2,500 in fines after pleading guilty to drug-related offences in October last year.</p> <p><em>Image credits: Channel Seven</em></p> <p style="box-sizing: inherit; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', HelveticaNeue, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-optical-sizing: inherit; font-variation-settings: inherit; font-size: 18px; margin: 0px 0px 24px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </p>

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Beloved Aussie musician dies days after revealing cancer diagnosis

<p>Australian musician Richard Andrew has tragically died at the age of 58, just seven days after announcing he had been diagnosed with lung cancer. </p> <p>Andrew, who has long been a fixture of the Melbourne music scene, passed away on October 30th, with his grieving wife confirming his death on a <a href="https://www.gofundme.com/f/supporting-nikki-through-tragedy-honouring-richards-legacy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GoFundMe</a> page. </p> <p>Andrew's wife, Nicolette Powell, is now faced with mourning the sudden loss of her husband while caring for her mother, who is grappling with a terminal brain tumour.</p> <p>"Nicolette's beloved husband, Richard, a well-known and iconic figure in Melbourne's music scene, recently passed away suddenly from cancer," the GoFundMe page's tribute to Andrew began.</p> <p>"Richard was a talented musician who left his mark in bands like Underground Lovers, Crow and Black Cab as well as his own band Registered Nurse and more recently his solo project RJ Andrew."</p> <p>"He was also the founder of Pharmacy Records. He poured his heart and soul into his music, and his legacy will be felt across Melbourne's music community for years to come."</p> <p>Just one week before his untimely death, Andrew revealed to his fans he had been diagnosed with lung cancer in a social media message shared alongside a photo from his wedding to Powell.</p> <p>"After my last unsuccessful attempt to jump 17 double decker buses – A) this may go someway towards explaining being in a wheelchair and, B) the fact I'm getting married to the beautiful Nicolette Powell, in this photo," he wrote on Facebook.</p> <p>"Alas, although the marriage is definitely true and based on love, the double decker bus is, sadly, not quite the truth. Instead, a few month ago, I was diagnosed with Stage IV metastatic lung cancer, which has been a billy cart ride down s**t street, for the last little while."</p> <p>Andrew then went on to issue a public farewell to his fans and loved ones.</p> <p>"I am completely reconciled to whatever the future is, however, that future is probably quite limited and I'm in the process of preparing to pop this mortal coil and return to the trees, as it were," he wrote.</p> <p> </p> <p>"I cannot overstate enough what an honour and a privilege it has been to know you all over the last 58 years, and to have lived the most incredible, incredible life."</p> <p><em>Image credits: Instagram / GoFundMe</em></p>

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Elmo's chat about grief with famous actor goes viral

<p>A heart-warming conversation between actor Andrew Garfield and Elmo has gone viral for their candid conversation about grief. </p> <p>While on a press tour to promote his new film <em>We Live in Time</em>, the English actor stopped by Sesame Street for a chat about his mourning journey after his mother died from pancreatic cancer in 2019. </p> <p>Sitting on a stoop beside Elmo, Garfield began the vulnerable conversation, that has been praised for being so open about the taboo of grief and death. </p> <p>“Elmo’s going around Sesame Street checking in on everybody,” Elmo told a smiling Garfield. “So, Elmo wants to know how Andrew’s doing?”</p> <p>With some encouragement from the Muppet, Garfield revealed that he’s been thinking about his mother, as he said, “She passed away not too long ago, and you know, I just miss her. Miss her a lot.”</p> <p><iframe title="YouTube video player" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/EVlXbiP4x2E?si=fFYYt5DJDiGAawXJ" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></p> <p>After Elmo responded apologetically, Garfield reassured Elmo that there’s no need to say sorry, and that “it’s actually kind of OK to miss somebody,” even if it invokes feelings of sadness.</p> <p>“That sadness is kind of a gift. It’s kind of a lovely thing to feel, in a way, because it means you really loved somebody when you miss them,” Garfield said, adding: “When I miss my mum, I remember all of the cuddles I used to get from her, all of the hugs I used to get from her.”</p> <p>Garfield finished his thoughts by saying that he can miss and celebrate his mother at the same time, as Elmo thanked Garfield for sharing his emotions, saying, “You know what, Elmo is gonna think about and celebrate your mommy, too.”</p> <p>The video quickly racked up millions of views and comments, with many saying how Andrew's thoughts were so poignant, and that they resonated with their own personal stories of grief.</p> <p>Many people called it a "touching conversation" that was "absolutely beautiful", while another person added, "I didn't expect a talk with Elmo to get this deep."</p> <p><em>Image credits: Sesame Street - YouTube</em></p>

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Andrew 'Twiggy' Forrest's daughter ties the knot at his iconic cattle station

<p>Sophia Forrest is married! </p> <p>The second child of Australian billionaire Andrew "Twiggy" Forrest and estranged wife Nicola Forrest has tied the knot with Zara Zoe more than two years after the couple announced their engagement. </p> <p>Sophia, who is non-binary and goes by they/them pronouns, and Zoe wed in a lavish ceremony on Twiggy's Western Australia property Minderoo Station. </p> <p>In an interview with Vogue Australia, the couple shared the reason why they chose Minderoo Station as their venue. </p> <p>“It’s so remote and tranquil,” the couple said. </p> <p>“It’s always been an oasis for us to escape to.” </p> <p>The pair shared a photo of their first kiss on Instagram, with Sophia looking stunning in a halter neck wedding dress, and their partner Zoe donned a fitting white suit with bell bottom pants. </p> <p>Sophia was nominated for Most Popular New Talent at the Logie Awards for their role in series<em> Love Child</em>.</p> <p>A year later Sophia met Zoe on the set of<em> Rise Like a Girl</em>. </p> <p>The couple announced their engagement on social media in April 2022, with Sophia writing at the time: "She makes heaven a place on earth."</p> <p>Friends were quick to congratulate the couple on their wedding, with Aussie actress Krew Boylan writing: "Congratulations!!! Enjoy all the love and oxytocin tumbling your way . Big kisses from me." </p> <p>"Ugh 😍" added former <em>Home and Away </em>star Lukas Radovich. </p> <p>"GORGEOUS 😍 congratulations to you both!!!! Lots of love ❤️‍🔥" commented Aussie actress Karina Banno. </p> <p><em>Images: Instagram</em></p> <p> </p>

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Dan Andrews' statue mystery unfolds

<p>Melbourne is abuzz with a burning question: where, oh where, will the statue of former premier Daniel Andrews be placed? More importantly, will it capture his iconic North Face jacket-clad form, standing proud in the face of lockdown chaos?</p> <p>Yes, it appears that a bronze likeness of the man who guided (and locked) Victoria through some of its toughest years is in the works. The <a href="https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/former-premier-dan-andrews-to-be-immortalised-in-new-statue/news-story/68d37a765269a629baca12c08cc74e1c" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Herald Sun recently revealed</a> that the Allan government has confirmed that Dan Andrews will soon be immortalised in Melbourne, joining the ranks of past Victorian premiers like John Cain Jr, Rupert Hamer and Henry Bolte – legends who, let's be honest, didn’t have to worry about memorialising themselves in the middle of a pandemic-fuelled political firestorm.</p> <p>But the government isn’t spilling all the tea just yet. They’ve refused to say exactly where Dan's statue will stand or how much it will cost us. Will it be along the esteemed Treasury Place? Or will they go for something a little more subtle – like a sneaky placement next to a suburban train station, so you can admire his bronzed visage while waiting for a delayed train? Or even – as one disgruntled Facebook user suggested – "at the bottom of the Yarra River"?</p> <p>It's been reported that the statue could easily cost north of $100,000, but what’s a little six-figure sum when you’re eternally freezing a man in time who made your curfew 8pm sharp?</p> <p>The statute eligibility stems from Andrews' 3000-day reign as premier, a milestone introduced by former premier Jeff Kennett, who, sadly, never reached the magic number. It’s almost like Kennett set the bar just to have Dan leap right over it. We’re picturing Kennett in his living room, shaking his fist at a calendar – he could’ve been immortalised in bronze, but alas, his term was cut short. He’s now left without the joy of being a bronzed footnote in history.</p> <p>Meanwhile, sculptor Peter Corlett, the mastermind behind the previous premier statues, has been pondering what pose should immortalise Andrews. Should it be the famous “fists in the air” moment from his 2022 election victory – a rare, almost gladiatorial display of emotion for the typically stoic Andrews? Or will the statue take inspiration from his pandemic press conferences, with him wrapped in his signature North Face jacket, standing solid, as if braving the cold front of public opinion? Perhaps he’ll be gesturing towards an unseen map, locking down regions in real-time. For extra authenticity, pigeons could be programmed to circle around, completing the press conference vibe.</p> <p>While the government is busy with this monument of monumental importance, Opposition finance spokeswoman Jess Wilson has questioned whether now is the best time for such a grand expense. After all, it’s hard to be thrilled about bronze when you’re facing surging crime and hospital wait times that feel longer than the five-day snap lockdown that wasn’t so snappy. Her argument? "Maybe taxpayers would prefer a statue of a budget surplus instead."</p> <p>Of course, there are some whispers suggesting that perhaps Victoria could consider honouring a leading female figure instead. You know, just to mix things up a little in the boys’ club of bronze. But for now, Dan Andrews seems set to be cast in metal.</p> <p>So, while we wait to discover where this shiny new addition to the Melbourne cityscape will be unveiled, we can start placing our bets. Will it be along Treasury Place? Will it be out in the suburbs, standing sentinel in the middle of a roundabout? Or – dare we dream – will it be perched right outside the North Face store, ensuring Melbourne’s most iconic premier (and jacket wearer) is always in fashion?</p> <p>Let the statue speculation begin. And remember, as you ponder the deep mysteries of bronze premier placement, at least this time, you’re not in lockdown.</p> <p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>

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The traumatic moment that triggered Andrew O'Keefe's downward spiral

<p>As Andrew O'Keefe continues his public battle with drug addiction and charges of assault, <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13863269/andrew-okeefe.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><em>Daily Mail Australia</em></a> has revealed the traumatic experience that triggered his downward spiral. </p> <p>According to the publication, the TV presenter's self-destructive behaviour began barely 72 hours after his "deeply devout" father died. </p> <p>Channel Seven colleagues of O'Keefe's were shocked when he embarked on a brazen, drug-fuelled bender at the Logie Awards in 2014 just a few days after his dad's passing. </p> <p><em>Daily Mail Australia</em>, who claim the Logies incident is well-known in the industry, marked the start of the concerning behaviour that eventually ended the former Seven star's career, marriage and relationship with his children.</p> <p>Close friends fear O'Keefe - affectionately known as AOK among friends - has now descended so far into "the grip of an addiction he can't beat", he would be better off behind bars for his own safety. </p> <p>One concerned colleague, who worked alongside O'Keefe for more than a decade at Seven, said O'Keefe had confided that he harboured a deep-seated resentment against his father right up to his dying days, revealing to his friend that him he endured a "traumatic childhood" and blamed his strict Supreme Court judge dad for failing to support him.</p> <p>"AOK told me he had a really f***ed-up childhood," the colleague told <em>Daily Mail Australia</em>.</p> <p>"A lot of his trauma relates to the emotional abuse inflicted by his father - there was never anything physical - but he absolutely ignored the pain Andrew was going through."</p> <p>"From what he told me, his dad was this deranged Mel Gibson-type religious zealot and he would hold his own private Catholic masses in their home. He never forgave him for neglecting him in his time of need and never learned how to properly deal with all that pent-up rage."</p> <p>"Now he's in the grip of an addiction he can't beat, and he's pouring through the money he made [while at Seven] and what he got from the sale of his properties.  He's cut many of us out of his life and surrounded himself with a new circle of friends who are happy to get high with him, supply him with drugs and bleed him dry."</p> <p>"It's f***ing tragic - maybe going to jail will be the best thing for him, I don't know - we're all just really worried about him and how this will all end."</p> <p><em>Image credits: Channel Seven </em></p>

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Farmer Wants a Wife star breaks silence after split

<p><em>Farmer Wants a Wife</em> fan favourite Farmer Andrew has confirmed his split from Claire Saunders after the pair cancelled their upcoming wedding. </p> <p>The pair, who met each other on the 2023 season of the show, initially shared that their wedding had been postponed in July for “reasons out of our control”.</p> <p>On Monday, Andrew confirmed that the relationship ended in a lengthy Instagram post. </p> <p>“It feels the right time to share what’s been happening in my life on the farm and beyond,” he began.</p> <p>“For someone who’s more used to being surrounded by sheep and nature than the buzz of social media, this is a bit out of the box. But here goes.”</p> <p>He explained that a few years ago he wanted to share the farm life with "someone special" so he decided to sign up for the show. </p> <p>“I never imagined meeting such an amazing group of women, each with their own spirit and story. It was exciting and humbling, reminding me of how important love and connection are,” he said.</p> <p>“Amidst it all, one extraordinary woman captured my heart, and we decided to give it a shot.</p> <p>“We moved in together, dreaming of a future where our love would grown alongside the farm. It was fast-paced, passionate and fun.</p> <p>He continued saying that life had other plans for them and despite their love and effort,  "sometimes things just don’t work out."</p> <p>“Living together brought its own challenges, and we realised our paths weren’t meant to stay intertwined.”</p> <p>He said that while it was "sad" the relationship had to end, they gave it their all. </p> <p>“Though it didn’t lead us where we hoped, it helped us grow. It’s been a huge outlay of heart and soul. And while it’s painful to walk away, we’ve both emerged stronger, wiser, and more attuned to what really matters.”</p> <p>He then went on to thank his family, friends and followers who helped him through tough times, and shared his plan going forward. </p> <p>“As I move forward, I’m choosing to celebrate the love we shared, the lessons learned, and the strength gained.</p> <p>“No regrets, just gratitude. Now, it’s time to dive back into farm life. here’s never a dull moment with the challenges, adventures and pleasures that come from living and working on the land, and I look forward to sharing this journey, hoping we can all find inspiration," he ended the post. </p> <p>The former couple announced their engagement in March 2021, after Claire moved to Andrew's farm in Narromine, regional NSW. </p> <p><em>Images: Instagram</em></p>

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"Lucky to be alive": Concerning Andrew O'Keefe update

<p>Andrew O'Keefe will remain in jail after his bail was revoked, just days after being arrested on drug charges. </p> <p>The former TV host was arrested on Monday and charged with drug possession after police searched a nearby car and allegedly found methamphetamine.</p> <p>His arrest came just hours after the 52-year-old was discharged from the <a href="https://oversixty.com.au/health/caring/andrew-o-keefe-rushed-to-hospital" target="_blank" rel="noopener">hospital</a>, after he was revived by paramedics in the early hours on Sunday morning after an alleged drug overdose. </p> <p>In Waverley Local Court on Tuesday, Magistrate Jacqueline Milledge said O’Keefe was “lucky to be alive” as she read a police statement of facts on an application to detain the former TV host rather than let him out on bail again. </p> <p>O'Keefe was out on bail at the time of the alleged overdose, after allegedly breaching a court order, trespassing and intimidating a man in Sydney’s eastern suburbs in July.</p> <p>O’Keefe’s lawyer did not argue against the application and the magistrate revoked his bail, meaning he will remain custody before his return to court in October.</p> <p>“If he wants to stay alive that’s the best thing to do,” Milledge said.</p> <p>O’Keefe’s lawyer suggested a possible application for release on the next occasion for O’Keefe to receive treatment but Milledge said “a “highly persuasive” argument would be required.</p> <p>O’Keefe’s frequent appearances in court are “absolutely tragic” and “very, very sad,” the magistrate said.</p> <p>“He’s a frequent flyer, he’s just so used to it,” she said.</p> <p>“The mental health applications, the rehab, all been tried, and tested, and failed.</p> <p>“I just don’t see the same thing over and over again is going to be working for him and, god help him, it’s a shame that he doesn’t have an epiphany.”</p> <p><em>Image credits: Seven News </em></p>

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Andrew O'Keefe rushed to hospital

<p>Andrew O'Keefe has been rushed to hospital after being revived by paramedics at a party in Sydney's Eastern Suburbs over the weekend. </p> <p>The disgraced TV host was partying at a home in Vaucluse at 3:30am on Saturday when emergency services were called after allegedly suffering a drug overdose. </p> <p>Paramedics revived O'Keefe at the scene before transporting him to the nearby St Vincent's Hospital for treatment. </p> <p><em>The Daily Telegraph</em> reported that he has since been released from hospital. </p> <p>In a statement, NSW Police said of the incident, "Officers attached to Eastern Suburbs Police Area Command were called to a home unit on Old South Head Road at Vaucluse about 3.40am, responding to concerns for the welfare of a 52-year-old man."</p> <p>"NSW Ambulance paramedics rendered assistance to the man before taking him to St Vincent's Hospital where he was reported to be in a stable condition. Inquiries into the incident are continuing."</p> <p>O'Keefe's health incident comes just days after a court upheld his convictions for domestic violence assault, as District Court Judge John Pickering rejected his lawyers' arguments that a woman had inflicted scratch marks on her own arm and later blamed O'Keefe.</p> <p>The troubled former TV star was convicted in January of three counts of domestic violence-related assault, twice contravening an AVO against him, and two charges for possessing a prohibited drug.</p> <p>He was ordered to serve 18 months on a community corrections order, which involves supervision and reporting requirements, and fined $800 for the drug offences.</p> <p><em>Image credits: JOEL CARRETT/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock Editorial</em></p> <p> </p>

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‘It’s time to give up on normal’: what winter’s weird weather means for the warm months ahead

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/david-bowman-4397">David Bowman</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tasmania-888">University of Tasmania</a></em></p> <p>Heavy winds struck south-east Australia over the weekend as a series of cold fronts moved across the continent. It followed a <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/australia-weather-update-nsw-and-victoria-damaging-winds-high-fire-danger-warnings/0f9b19d8-dc81-44c9-8df4-679cbb67c055">high fire danger</a> in Sydney and other parts of New South Wales last week, and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-28/fire-grass-emergency-warning-firefighter-horningsea-park/104281180">a fire in south-west Sydney</a> that threatened homes.</p> <p>The severe weather rounds out a weird winter across Australia. The nation’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/aug/26/winter-heat-records-broken-as-australia-set-for-more-temperatures-over-10c-above-average">hottest ever winter temperature was recorded</a> when Yampi Sound in Western Australia reached 41.6C on Tuesday. Elsewhere across Australia, winter temperatures have been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/aug/28/nsw-weather-forecast-fire-danger-warnings-sydney-bom">way above average</a>.</p> <p>We can look to the positives: spring <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/aug/26/australias-early-spring-brings-budding-flowers-chirping-birds-and-climate-alarm">flowers are blooming early</a>, and people have donned t-shirts and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/spring-comes-early-after-warm-winter-with-more-heat-on-the-way-20240828-p5k63i.html">hit the beach</a>. But there’s a frightening undercurrent to this weather.</p> <p>Earth’s climate has become dangerously <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/extreme-weather/">unstable</a>, and it’s only a matter of time before we get the bad combination of hot and dry weather, strong winds and a spark. None of this should come as a surprise. The sooner we stop expecting Australia’s weather to be “normal”, the sooner we can prepare for life in a wild climate.</p> <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/003XSg5AZBk?wmode=transparent&amp;start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></figure> <h2>The green is deceiving</h2> <p>The landscape around Sydney – and in fact, across much of south-east Australia – is very green at the moment. That’s because we’ve had a couple of years of good rains which triggered an explosion of vegetation growth.</p> <p>The below NASA satellite image reveals the picture in stark detail. It’s certainly lush out there at the moment.</p> <p>But the problem with climate change is that weather conditions can turn on a dime. This August was a case in point. At month’s end, much of Australia was hit by a record-breaking heatwave and <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_col.shtml">damaging winds</a> – conditions that can dry out a green landscape with devastating efficiency, turning it into fuel for a bushfire.</p> <p>The dangerous fire weather that struck Sydney this week came as a surprise to many. But in reality, these abnormal conditions are the new normal.</p> <p>We must open our minds to this, if we want to be prepared.</p> <h2>A climate off the rails</h2> <p>The year 2023 was Earth’s <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/2023-was-warmest-year-modern-temperature-record#:%7E:text=The%20year%202023%20was%20the,decade%20(2014%E2%80%932023).">hottest on record</a>. And <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-2024-now-very-likely-to-be-warmest-year-on-record/">2024 looks likely</a> to be hotter still.</p> <p>In Australia, the last 12 months have provided all the evidence we need that our climate is wobbling on its rails.</p> <p>In October 2023, Victoria’s Gippsland region suffered unseasonably early bushfires, then soon after battled <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-05/gippsland-fires-and-multiple-floods-breeding-resilience/103179368">heavy rain and flooding</a>.</p> <p>And Tasmania, where I live, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-07/tas-drought-conditions-as-dry-tasmania-looking-very-brown/103546058">has been gripped by drought</a>. This February was Hobart’s third driest in 143 years. But over the weekend we were hammered by a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-01/tas-flood-warnings-severe-weather-sunday/104296092">deluge of rain and wind</a>.</p> <p>This climate instability is setting up bad fire conditions. Not everywhere in south-east Australia will be hit by fire, but it will happen somewhere. It could be the hinterlands or the coast. It will depend on how our erratic climate behaves in the coming months.</p> <p>Let’s stick with the Tasmania example. Sure, the surface soils are now nicely saturated. But that will lead to a burst of grass and other vegetation in spring. If the dry weather returns and the temperatures heat up in summer, the fine fuels will dry out and become dangerously combustible.</p> <p>All we need then is a windy day and a spark, and a nightmare fire will soon be racing across the landscape.</p> <h2>Canada on fire</h2> <p>Of course, Australia is not the only country facing climate instability and a worsening fire risk.</p> <p>Canada suffered a catastrophic wildfire season in 2023 – one of the most severe on record. It burnt almost 15 million hectares and forced the evacuation of 232,000 people.</p> <p>Smoke produced by the fires affected communities up to 1,000 km away, such as in southern Canada and on the east coast of the United States.</p> <p>A <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-02653-6">recent paper</a> in the journal Nature Communications outlined why. It pinpointed early snowmelt, early-season drought conditions and intense heat. In fact, the average temperature in Canada from May to October last year was 2.2°C higher than the 30-year average.</p> <p>The researchers said human-caused climate change exacerbated the fire’s effects. It went on:</p> <blockquote> <p>The disproportionate effect a few days of extreme weather can have on the total area burned is also evident in this fire season, leading to worrisome prospects given projected future conditions.</p> </blockquote> <h2>Normal no longer exists</h2> <p>It’s always been difficult to forecast fire seasons in Australia, due to our natural climate variability.</p> <p>But now we are seeing climate instability <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/research/environmental-impacts/climate-change/state-of-the-climate/previous/state-of-the-climate-2018/australias-changing-climate">layering over itself</a>: background dryness, wet seasons bringing a proliferation of fuels, and above-average temperatures.</p> <p>Eventually we’ll get unlucky and experience extremely strong winds thrown into the mix. That’s when catastrophic fires are most likely to occur.</p> <p>As we saw in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-black-summer-of-fire-was-not-normal-and-we-can-prove-it-172506">Black Summer of 2019–20</a>, and again in Canada last year, some fires are so intense they completely overwhelm fire suppression strategies.</p> <p>Under climate change, the likelihood of getting a bad combination of weather conditions is increasing. So what’s the remedy?</p> <p>Australia really must start making our communities more resilient. Serious and sustained adaptation is needed. As my <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.adi8066">research has outlined</a>, this requires the careful integration of:</p> <ul> <li>community education programs</li> <li>research and development to design fire-safe homes, gardens, communities and bushland</li> <li>incentives and penalties to ensure adaptation measures are implemented.</li> </ul> <p>As this winter has shown, Australia’s climate is entering a different phase. It’s time to give up on “normal” weather. The game is changing and we have to adapt.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/237857/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/david-bowman-4397">David Bowman</a>, Professor of Pyrogeography and Fire Science, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tasmania-888">University of Tasmania</a></em></p> <p><em>Image credits: Shutterstock </em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-time-to-give-up-on-normal-what-winters-weird-weather-means-for-the-warm-months-ahead-237857">original article</a>.</em></p> </div>

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40°C in August? A climate expert explains why Australia is ridiculously hot right now

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-king-103126">Andrew King</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a></em></p> <p>It’s winter in Australia, but as you’ve probably noticed, the weather is unusually warm. The top temperatures over large parts of the country this weekend were well above average for this time of year.</p> <p>The outback town of Oodnadatta in South Australia recorded 38.5°C on Friday and 39.4°C on Saturday – about 16°C above average. Both days were well above the state’s previous winter temperature record. In large parts of Australia, the heat is expected to persist into the coming week.</p> <p>A high pressure system is bringing this unusual heat – and it’s hanging around. So temperature records have already fallen and may continue to be broken for some towns in the next few days.</p> <p>It’s no secret the world is warming. In fact, 2024 is shaping up to be <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-2024-now-very-likely-to-be-warmest-year-on-record/">the hottest year on record</a>. Climate change is upon us. Historical averages are becoming just that: a thing of the past.</p> <p>That’s why this winter heat is concerning. The warming trend will continue for at least as long as we keep burning fossil fuels and polluting the atmosphere. Remember, this is only August. The heatwaves of spring and summer are only going to be hotter.</p> <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GmhMKjxEGQo?wmode=transparent&amp;start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe><figcaption><span class="caption">Widespread heat forecast for Australia in August, 2024 (Bureau of Meteorology)</span></figcaption></figure> <h2>Records broken across Australia</h2> <p>The Bureau of Meteorology was expecting many records to be broken over the weekend across several states. On Thursday, bureau meteorologist Angus Hines described:</p> <blockquote> <p>A scorching end to winter, with widespread heat around the country in coming days, including the chance of winter records across multiple states for maximum temperature.</p> </blockquote> <p>The amount of heat plunging into central Australia was particularly unusual, Hines said.</p> <p>On Friday, temperatures across northern South Australia and southern parts of the Northern Territory were as much as 15°C above average.</p> <p>Temperatures continued to soar across northern parts of Western Australia over the weekend, with over 40°C recorded at Fitzroy Crossing on Sunday. It has been 2–12°C above average from Townsville all the way down to Melbourne for several days in a row.</p> <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=412&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=412&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=412&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=518&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=518&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=518&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" alt="Animated maximum temperature anomaly map showing heat building across central Australia" /></a><figcaption><span class="caption">Maximum temperature anomalies from August 19-24, showing heat building across Australia.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bureau of Meteorology</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure> <p>Bear in mind, it’s only August. As Hines said, the fire weather season hasn’t yet hit most of Australia – but the current conditions – hot, dry and sometimes windy – are bringing moderate to high fire danger across Australia. It may also bring dusty conditions to central Australia.</p> <p>And for latitudes north of Sydney and Perth, most of the coming week will be warm.</p> <h2>What’s causing the winter warmth?</h2> <p><a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_col.shtml">In recent days</a> a stubborn high pressure system has sat over eastern Australia and the Tasman Sea. It has kept skies clear over much of the continent and brought northerly winds over many areas, transporting warm air to the south.</p> <p>High pressure promotes warm weather – both through clearer skies that bring more sunshine, and by promoting the descent of air which <a href="https://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/2544/explainer-what-influences-air-temperature/">causes heating</a>.</p> <p>By late August, both the intensity of the sun and the length of the day has increased. So the centre of Australia can really warm up when under the right conditions.</p> <p>High pressure in June can be associated with cooler conditions, because more heat is lost from the surface during those long winter nights. But that’s already less of an issue by late August.</p> <p>This kind of weather setup has occurred in the past. Late-winter or early-spring heat does sometimes occur in Australia. However, this warm spell is exceptional, as highlighted by the broken temperature records across the country.</p> <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=450&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=450&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=450&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=566&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=566&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=566&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" alt="Graph of August Australian-average temperatures increasing since 1910" /></a><figcaption><span class="caption">August temperatures have been rising over the past century.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bureau of Meteorology</span></span></figcaption></figure> <h2>Feeling the heat</h2> <p>The consequences of humanity’s continued greenhouse gas emissions are clear. Australia’s winters are getting warmer overall. And winter “heatwaves” are becoming warmer.</p> <p>Australia’s three warmest Augusts on record have all occurred since 2000 – and <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-is-australia-having-such-a-warm-winter-a-climate-expert-explains-210693">last August was the second-warmest since 1910</a>. When the right weather conditions occur for winter warmth across Australia, the temperatures are higher than a century ago.</p> <p>The warmth we are experiencing now comes off the back of <a href="https://theconversation.com/earth-has-just-ended-a-13-month-streak-of-record-heat-heres-what-to-expect-next-236655">a recent run of global temperature records</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-heat-is-breaking-global-records-why-this-isnt-just-summer-and-what-climate-change-has-to-do-with-it-234249">extreme heat events across the Northern Hemisphere</a>.</p> <p>This warm spell is set to continue, with temperatures above 30°C forecast from Wednesday through to Sunday in Brisbane. The outlook for spring points to continued <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/temperature/maximum/median/seasonal/0">above-normal temperatures</a> across the continent, but as always we will likely see both warm and cold spells at times.</p> <p>Such winter warmth is exceptional and already breaking records. Climate change is already increasing the frequency and intensity of this kind of winter heat – and future warm spells will be hotter still, if humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions continue.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/237398/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-king-103126">Andrew King</a>, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a></em></p> <p><em>Image credits: Shutterstock </em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/40-c-in-august-a-climate-expert-explains-why-australia-is-ridiculously-hot-right-now-237398">original article</a>.</em></p> </div>

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No, your aches and pains don’t get worse in the cold. So why do we think they do?

<div class="theconversation-article-body"> <p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/manuela-ferreira-161420">Manuela Ferreira</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/george-institute-for-global-health-874">George Institute for Global Health</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/leticia-deveza-1550633">Leticia Deveza</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841">University of Sydney</a></em></p> <p>It’s cold and wet outside. As you get out of bed, you can feel it in your bones. Your right knee is flaring up again. That’ll make it harder for you to walk the dog or go to the gym. You think it must be because of the weather.</p> <p>It’s a common idea, but a myth.</p> <p>When we looked at the evidence, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0049017224000337">we found</a> no direct link between most common aches and pains and the weather. In the first study of its kind, we found no direct link between the temperature or humidity with most joint or muscle aches and pains.</p> <p>So why are so many of us convinced the weather’s to blame? Here’s what we think is really going on.</p> <h2>Weather can be linked to your health</h2> <p>The weather is often associated with the risk of new and ongoing health conditions. For example, cold temperatures <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27021573/">may worsen</a> asthma symptoms. Hot temperatures <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(22)00117-6/fulltext">increase the risk</a> of heart problems, such as arrhythmia (irregular heartbeat), cardiac arrest and coronary heart disease.</p> <p>Many people are also convinced the weather is linked to their aches and pains. For example, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1479-8077.2004.00099.x?casa_token=jvpSbA4szqoAAAAA%3ATyHyGaqXmfevWyuJe6LW_3Pap3IPHC8HSMTl3RN63mFzNO0X7ozQjBb6Bi3yVFuPjqkrf-WlB-J5A1q1">two in every three</a> people with knee, hip or hand osteoarthritis <a href="https://bmcmusculoskeletdisord.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2474-15-66">say</a> cold temperatures trigger their symptoms.</p> <p>Musculoskeletal conditions affect more than <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/chronic-musculoskeletal-conditions/musculoskeletal-conditions-comorbidity-australia/summary">seven million Australians</a>. So we set out to find out whether weather is really the culprit behind winter flare-ups.</p> <h2>What we did</h2> <p>Very few studies have been specifically and appropriately designed to look for any direct link between weather changes and joint or muscle pain. And ours is the first to evaluate data from these particular studies.</p> <p>We looked at data from more than 15,000 people from around the world. Together, these people reported more than 28,000 episodes of pain, mostly back pain, knee or hip osteoarthritis. People with rheumatoid arthritis and gout were also included.</p> <p>We then compared the frequency of those pain reports between different types of weather: hot or cold, humid or dry, rainy, windy, as well as some combinations (for example, hot and humid versus cold and dry).</p> <h2>What we found</h2> <p>We found changes in air temperature, humidity, air pressure and rainfall do not increase the risk of knee, hip or lower back pain symptoms and are not associated with people seeking care for a new episode of arthritis.</p> <p>The results of this study suggest we do not experience joint or muscle pain flare-ups as a result of changes in the weather, and a cold day will not increase our risk of having knee or back pain.</p> <p>In order words, there is no <em>direct</em> link between the weather and back, knee or hip pain, nor will it give you arthritis.</p> <p>It is important to note, though, that very cold air temperatures (under 10°C) were rarely studied so we cannot make conclusions about worsening symptoms in more extreme changes in the weather.</p> <p>The only exception to our findings was for gout, an inflammatory type of arthritis that can come and go. Here, pain increased in warmer, dry conditions.</p> <p>Gout has a very different underlying biological mechanism to back pain or knee and hip osteoarthritis, which may explain our results. The combination of warm and dry weather may lead to increased dehydration and consequently increased concentration of uric acid in the blood, and deposition of uric acid crystals in the joint in people with gout, resulting in a flare-up.</p> <h2>Why do people blame the weather?</h2> <p>The weather can influence other factors and behaviours that consequently shape how we perceive and manage pain.</p> <p>For example, some people may change their physical activity routine during winter, choosing the couch over the gym. And we know <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28700451/">prolonged sitting</a>, for instance, is directly linked to worse back pain. Others may change their sleep routine or sleep less well when it is either too cold or too warm. Once again, a bad night’s sleep can trigger your <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00586-021-06730-6">back</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1063458421007020">knee</a> pain.</p> <p>Likewise, changes in mood, often experienced in cold weather, trigger increases in both <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00586-021-06730-6">back</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1063458421007020">knee</a> pain.</p> <p>So these changes in behaviour over winter may contribute to more aches and pains, and not the weather itself.</p> <p>Believing our pain will feel worse in winter (even if this is not the case) may also make us feel worse in winter. This is known as the <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12891-018-1943-8">nocebo effect</a>.</p> <h2>What to do about winter aches and pains?</h2> <p>It’s best to focus on risk factors for pain you can control and modify, rather than ones you can’t (such as the weather).</p> <p>You can:</p> <ul> <li> <p>become more physically active. This winter, and throughout the year, aim to walk more, or talk to your health-care provider about gentle exercises you can safely do at home, with a physiotherapist, personal trainer or at the pool</p> </li> <li> <p>lose weight if obese or overweight, as this is linked to <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2799405">lower levels</a> of joint pain and better physical function</p> </li> <li> <p>keep your body warm in winter if you feel some muscle tension in uncomfortably cold conditions. Also ensure your bedroom is nice and warm as we tend to sleep <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0033350623003359">less well</a> in cold rooms</p> </li> <li> <p>maintain a healthy diet and <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanrhe/article/PIIS2665-9913(23)00098-X/fulltext">avoid smoking</a> or drinking high levels of alcohol. These are among <a href="https://ard.bmj.com/content/annrheumdis/82/1/48.full.pdf">key lifestyle recommendations</a> to better manage many types of arthritis and musculoskeletal conditions. For people with back pain, for example, a healthy lifestyle is linked with <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36208321/">higher levels</a> of physical function.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/235117/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> </li> </ul> <p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/manuela-ferreira-161420">Manuela Ferreira</a>, Professor of Musculoskeletal Health, Head of Musculoskeletal Program, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/george-institute-for-global-health-874">George Institute for Global Health</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/leticia-deveza-1550633">Leticia Deveza</a>, Rheumatologist and Research Fellow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841">University of Sydney</a></em></p> <p><em>Image credits: Shutterstock </em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-your-aches-and-pains-dont-get-worse-in-the-cold-so-why-do-we-think-they-do-235117">original article</a>.</em></p> </div>

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Antarctic heat, wild Australian winter: what’s happening to the weather and what it means for the rest of the year

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/martin-jucker-379172">Martin Jucker</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-sydney-1414">UNSW Sydney</a></em></p> <p>Australia’s south and east have seen <a href="https://theconversation.com/southern-australia-is-freezing-how-can-it-be-so-cold-in-a-warming-climate-233977">freezing temperatures</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jul/29/australia-winter-weather-forecast-east-coast-colder-records">wild weather</a> this winter. At the same time, the continent as a whole – and the globe – have <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-03/australia-suffers-cold-winter-weather-despite-mild-forecast/104176284">continued to warm</a>.</p> <p>What’s going on? As ever, it’s hard to pinpoint a single cause for weather events. But a key player is likely an event unfolding high above Antarctica, which itself may have been triggered by a heatwave at surface level on the frozen continent.</p> <p>Here’s what’s happening – and what it might mean for the rest of this year’s weather.</p> <h2>When the stratosphere heats up</h2> <p>Out story begins in the cold air over Antarctica. July temperatures in the stratosphere, the layer of air stretching between altitudes of around 10 and 50 kilometres, are typically around –80°C.</p> <p>The winds are also very strong, averaging about 300 kilometres per hour in winter. These cold, fast winds loop around above the pole in what is called the <a href="https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/waugh/research/polarvortex">stratospheric polar vortex</a>.</p> <p>Occasionally, persistent high air pressure in the lower atmosphere can influence large-scale waves that extend around the globe and up into the stratosphere. There they cause the strong winds to slow down, and the air high above the pole to become much warmer than normal.</p> <p>In extreme situations the stratospheric winds can completely break down, in what is called a “sudden stratospheric warming” event. These events occur every few years in the northern hemisphere, but only one has ever been observed in the south, in 2002 (though another <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-air-above-antarctica-is-suddenly-getting-warmer-heres-what-it-means-for-australia-123080">almost happened in 2019</a>).</p> <h2>Pushing polar weather our way</h2> <p>Once the polar vortex is disturbed, it can in turn influence the weather at the surface by steering weather systems from the Southern Ocean towards the Equator. However, this is a slow process.</p> <p>The impact at the surface may not be felt until <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0425.1">a few weeks or even months</a> after the initial weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex. Once it begins, the stratospheric influence can prevail for more weeks or months, and helps meteorologists make <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022">long-range weather forecasts</a>.</p> <p>In climate science terms, the weak stratospheric winds put an atmospheric system called the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/sam/">Southern Annular Mode</a> into a negative phase. The main effect of this on surface weather is to bring westerly winds further north.</p> <p>In winter, this means polar air outbreaks can reach places like Sydney more easily. As a result, we see more <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4134.1">rain over much of southern Australia</a>, and snowfall in alpine regions. In spring and summer it means westerly winds blow over the continent before reaching the east coast, bringing warm and dry air to southeastern Australia.</p> <p>The exact impact of a weaker polar vortex depends on how much and for how long the weather systems are being pushed further northward. It will also depend on other weather influencers such as El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole.</p> <h1>This winter’s weirdness</h1> <p>Unpicking exactly why any weather event occurs is tricky at the moment, because global weather has been absolutely crazy over the past 12 months or so. Global temperatures are <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-just-blew-past-1-5-degrees-game-over-on-climate-not-yet-213364">much higher than usual</a>, which is making unusual weather very common.</p> <p>But there are indications that the stratosphere is having some influence on our weather this winter.</p> <p>The stratospheric polar vortex started to warm in mid-July, and is about 20°C warmer than the long-term average. At the time of writing, the winds slowed down to about 230 kilometres per hour, 70 kilometres per hour slower than average.</p> <p>These numbers mean that, technically, the event does not qualify as a sudden stratospheric warming. However, further warming may still occur.</p> <p>If we look at how southern hemisphere winds have evolved in the past few weeks, we see a pattern which looks like what we would expect from a sudden stratospheric warming.</p> <p>First, we see warming in the stratosphere which is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095270">at first accompanied by a poleward shift of weather systems</a>.</p> <p>The stratosphere’s influence then propagates downward and seems to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0425.1">induce many weeks</a> of weather systems shifted towards the equator.</p> <p>This coincides with the period of cold and rainy weather along Australia’s east coast in late July and the beginning of August. Forecasts suggest the Southern Annular Mode will be a long way from normal conditions in the first half of August – four standard deviations below average, which is extremely rare.</p> <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/611211/original/file-20240804-19-sp862a.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/611211/original/file-20240804-19-sp862a.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/611211/original/file-20240804-19-sp862a.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=300&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/611211/original/file-20240804-19-sp862a.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=300&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/611211/original/file-20240804-19-sp862a.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=300&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/611211/original/file-20240804-19-sp862a.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=377&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/611211/original/file-20240804-19-sp862a.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=377&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/611211/original/file-20240804-19-sp862a.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=377&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" alt="Diagram showing atmospheric warming and winds" /></a><figcaption><span class="caption">How initial warming high in the stratosphere ends up changing winds near the surface and pushing polar weather further north.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://stratobserve.com">Z.D. Lawrence / StratObserve / Annotated by Martin Jucker</a></span></figcaption></figure> <h1>A surface disturbance</h1> <p>The main reason for the polar vortex to slow down is disturbances from the surface. Weather over the Amundsen Sea near Antarctica in the South Pacific is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0425.1">an important source</a> of these disturbances.</p> <p>This year, we have seen disturbances of this sort. There have been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/01/antarctic-temperatures-rise-10c-above-average-in-near-record-heatwave">near-record surface temperatures around Antarctica</a>.</p> <p>These disturbances may be due to the globally high ocean temperatures, or even lingering effects of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0437.1">eruption of the Hunga Tonga volcano in 2022</a>. But more research will be required to confirm the causes.</p> <h1>What should we expect for the rest of the year?</h1> <p>There are two pathways until the end of the year. One is that the stratospheric winds and temperatures recover to their usual values and no longer influence surface weather. This is what the forecasts from <a href="https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov">Ozone Watch</a> seem to suggest.</p> <p>Another is that the stratosphere keeps warming and the winds keep being slower all the way into summer. In this scenario, we would expect a persistent negative Southern Annular Mode, which would mean a spring and potentially even summer with warmer and drier than usual weather over southeastern Australia, and a small ozone hole.</p> <p>The seasonal forecasting models from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts <a href="https://x.com/drahbutler/status/1819142206348759170?s=46&amp;t=sayfGwpo3_s310BwYpcdcQ">seem to favour this second scenario</a>.<!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/martin-jucker-379172">Martin Jucker</a>, Senior Lecturer in Atmospheric Science, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-sydney-1414">UNSW Sydney</a></em></p> <p><em>Image credits: Shutterstock </em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/antarctic-heat-wild-australian-winter-whats-happening-to-the-weather-and-what-it-means-for-the-rest-of-the-year-236067">original article</a>.</em></p> </div>

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Snug but unsafe: your heater may be harming your health. What are your safest choices?

<div class="theconversation-article-body"> <p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/christine-cowie-191638">Christine Cowie</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-sydney-1414">UNSW Sydney</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bill-dodd-1280161">Bill Dodd</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tasmania-888"><em>University of Tasmania</em></a></em></p> <p>We now have a dizzying array of heating technologies to consider, besides the fire that warmed our ancestors.</p> <p>Salespeople will highlight any number of features and minor conveniences. You will be made aware of limited-offer discounts, product warranties, trends in certain Nordic countries, or their low cost (at least in the short-term). What you are less likely to read on the box is, well, the stuff that really matters: the long-term effects on your health and the health of your family, your neighbours and the environment.</p> <p>Yes, a heater should keep you warm affordably. After all, a warm home is vital for your health. But would you run a heater that you knew was increasing the likelihood of your child developing asthma, your partner developing lung cancer, and your neighbour or your grandparent suffering a stroke or heart attack?</p> <p>Many <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2019.105429">peer-reviewed studies</a> have found domestic heating to be a major source of air pollution and of ill health in Australia. So which heaters are high-risk and which are low-risk? Let’s consider, firstly, the most dangerous heaters.</p> <h2>Extreme-risk heaters</h2> <p>Two rules reduce the risks:</p> <ol> <li> <p>never burn anything (wood, gas or other fuel) in your home without adequate ventilation such as a chimney, exhaust or flue</p> </li> <li> <p>never use an outdoor appliance (heater, cooker, barbecue) inside.</p> </li> </ol> <p>Concerningly, a 2022 <a href="https://asthma.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/AA2022_Housing-Survey-Report_full_v4.pdf">Asthma Australia survey</a> found 7% of Australians used an unflued gas heater.</p> <p>When gas or other fuel is burnt indoors it releases a range of <a href="https://search.informit.org/doi/abs/10.3316/informit.786585213635569">particles and toxic gases</a>. Most dangerous of all is <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/environment/protection/npi/substances/fact-sheets/carbon-monoxide-0">carbon monoxide</a> (CO). This colourless, odourless gas can build up in unventilated homes, resulting in serious poisoning and death.</p> <p>A recent <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-29/sydney-family-use-bbq-as-indoor-heater-inhale-carbon-monoxide/104039702">case of carbon monoxide intoxication</a> left three people unconscious in a Sydney home after an outdoor barbecue was used inside as a heater. Outdoor heaters, cookers and barbecues are especially potent sources of carbon monoxide and should never be brought inside.</p> <p>If you have a gas appliance in your home, even if it is ventilated, install a <a href="https://www.energysafe.vic.gov.au/industry-guidance/gas/gas-information-sheets/gis-36-carbon-monoxide-alarms-domestic-use">carbon monoxide alarm</a> for as little as $30.</p> <h2>High-risk heaters</h2> <p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969724012087">The evidence</a> is now very clear: wood heater smoke is a potent source of air pollution and significant cause of ill-health in Australia.</p> <p>The more often you burn, the greater the risk. One <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2023.108128">large population study</a> found even infrequent wood heater use (30 days or more each year) increases the risk of lung cancer by 68%.</p> <p>Wood heaters spill smoke into the home when refuelling. They also suck smoke from outside back into the home as air is drawn up the chimney.</p> <p>If you can smell your wood heater, it is harming your health and exposing you to a toxic mix of particles and gases.</p> <p>For the wider community, the cumulative health impacts of wood heaters are significant.</p> <p>Less than <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Previousproducts/4602.0.55.001Main%20Features5Mar%202011?opendocument&amp;tabname=Summary&amp;prodno=4602.0.55.001&amp;issue=Mar%202011&amp;num=&amp;view=">10% of Australian households</a> use a wood heater. Yet they are the largest source of particulate air pollution in most Australian cities and towns, including <a href="https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/-/media/OEH/Corporate-Site/Documents/Air/sydney-air-quality-study-stage-2-program-report-220644.pdf">Sydney</a>, <a href="http://www.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171069">Melbourne</a>, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.5694/mja2.52176">Canberra</a>, <a href="http://www.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171069">Adelaide</a> and <a href="http://www.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17093264">Hobart</a>. Even in temperate Sydney, wood heaters emit <a href="https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/-/media/OEH/Corporate-Site/Documents/Air/sydney-air-quality-study-stage-2-program-report-220644.pdf">more of this pollution</a> than all the cars, trucks, boats and buses combined, and more than coal-fired power stations and industry.</p> <p><a href="https://safeair.org.au/">Centre for Safe Air</a> researchers <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171069">estimate</a> wood heaters cause between 558 and 1,555 excess deaths a year in Australia. That’s roughly equivalent to the <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/road_deaths_australia_monthly_bulletins">annual road toll</a>.</p> <p>Fine particles (2.5 microns or less in diameter – also known as PM2.5) are a major component of wood smoke. PM2.5 increases <a href="https://www.epa.gov/air-research/air-pollution-and-cardiovascular-disease-basics">rates of heart disease and stroke</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3978%2Fj.issn.2072-1439.2016.01.19">lung disease</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.218">dementia and other neurological conditions</a> and <a href="https://asthma.org.au/about-us/advocacy/air-quality">asthma attacks</a>. Risks of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003718">adverse pregnancy outcomes</a> and <a href="https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/air-pollution-and-childrens-health">poorer learning outcomes in children</a> are also increased.</p> <h2>Low-risk heaters</h2> <p>Evidence suggests there is no “safe” level of air pollution, with health effects <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2019.02.044">seen at very low levels</a>.</p> <p>Even ducted gas heating, where most of the toxins are ventilated, <a href="https://search.informit.org/doi/abs/10.3316/informit.786585213635569">can expose residents to low levels</a> of PM2.5, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide and formaldehyde. Over time, this can have a range of <a href="https://safeair.org.au/the-health-impacts-of-gas-use-extraction/#gf_1">health impacts</a>, including worsening asthma and respiratory symptoms.</p> <p>Burning gas for heating also adds to greenhouse gas emissions.</p> <p>As Australia transitions to a zero-carbon society, some states and territories are phasing out installation of new wood heaters, such as <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-24/canberra-to-phase-out-wood-heaters-by-2045/102769162">in the ACT</a>, and gas connections, such as <a href="https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/guides-and-resources/strategies-and-initiatives/victorias-gas-substitution-roadmap">in Victoria</a>. Subsidies to help people replace unhealthy heaters are excellent investments in the environment, public health and health equity.</p> <h2>Healthy heaters</h2> <p>Ultimately, heaters that do not rely on burning fuel inside the home are the safest, and often more affordable, heating option.</p> <p>A <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-17/cleaning-filters-in-reverse-cycle-air-conditioner-to-save/102594652">well-maintained</a> reverse-cycle air conditioner, sometimes called a heat pump, actually cleans the air inside your home.</p> <p>These air conditioners have the additional benefit of cooling your home in summer. As heatwaves become more severe and frequent, efficient cooling is <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378778823004152">increasingly important for health</a>.</p> <p>As for affordability, an efficient reverse-cycle air conditioner can be up to <a href="https://www.climatechoices.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/1862663/Sustainable-Household-Scheme-A-guide-to-reverse-cycle-systems.pdf">seven times as efficient</a> as a gas wall heater in the energy it uses for a given amount of heat.</p> <p>There are many other <a href="https://www.choice.com.au/home-and-living/heating/electric-heaters/articles/which-electric-heater-type-is-best">electric heating technologies</a> – such as fan heaters, oil column heaters, panel heaters, or infrared heaters – that do not release toxins into the home.</p> <p>Heater manufacturers are often reluctant to talk about the health impacts of their products, and regulators are slow to catch up with the science.</p> <p>By thinking about heating in terms of health, you can make your home safer for yourself and the people around you.</p> <p>After all, there’s nothing cosier than a healthy home.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/235102/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/christine-cowie-191638"><em>Christine Cowie</em></a><em>, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Air Quality and Health Research and Evaluation, Woolcock Institute of Medical Research, University of Sydney; Senior Research Fellow, South West Sydney Clinical School, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-sydney-1414">UNSW Sydney</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bill-dodd-1280161">Bill Dodd</a>, Knowledge Broker, Centre for Safe Air (NHMRC CRE), and Adjunct Researcher, Media School, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tasmania-888">University of Tasmania</a></em></p> <p><em>Image </em><em>credits: Shutterstock </em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/snug-but-unsafe-your-heater-may-be-harming-your-health-what-are-your-safest-choices-235102">original article</a>.</em></p> </div>

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Andrew O'Keefe clashes with press after bail hearing

<p>Andrew O'Keefe has clashed with reporters outside a courtroom after he was granted bail following an interaction with police where he claims a crack pipe allegedly found in his pocket belonged to someone else.</p> <p>The disgraced former TV host sat quietly in the dock as his lawyer, Sharon Ramsden, applied for his release on bail at Waverley Local Court on Monday morning.</p> <p>Police allege the former Deal or No Deal host returned a positive drug test while driving after he was stopped shortly before midday on Sunday in Sydney’s affluent Bellevue Hill.</p> <p>Officers also allege that the 52-year-old also threatened a man in Point Piper shortly before he was stopped by police.</p> <p>The court was told Mr O’Keefe allegedly confronted the man at the property “potentially as a matter of jealousy” following a “rekindling” with his former partner.</p> <p>After O'Keefe was released on bail, chaos ensued outside Waverley police station as the TV host tried to make a quick exit. </p> <p>O'Keefe was followed by reporters as he stepped out into traffic and walked briskly away as he tried to avoid the camera crews. </p> <p>Footage captured by Channel 10 shows Mr O’Keefe handing a reporter her phone after it is dropped before telling her, “get out of my face”.</p> <p>Mr O’Keefe was ultimately granted bail despite magistrate Jacqueline Milledge telling the 52-year-old there were “a lot of aspects of the police facts that are of concern”.</p> <p>“There is a real concern you were somewhere you shouldn't have been and that drugs might still be a factor in your life, but I'm prepared to give you an opportunity to continue with your treatment,” she said.</p> <p>Mr O’Keefe will return before court next month as he faces a single charge each of intimidation and breach a court order, with police foreshadowing more charges pending forensic examination.</p> <p><em>Image credits: JOEL CARRETT/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock Editorial </em></p>

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