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“We miss her every day": Arrest made in 30-year cold case breakthrough

In a major breakthrough in a decades-old missing persons case, a 64-year-old man has been charged with being an accessory after the fact to murder in connection with the disappearance of Illawarra mother Pauline Sowry, last seen in 1993. Sowry, also known by her married name Pauline Lawrence, was 49 years old when she vanished from the northern suburbs of Wollongong in December 1993. Despite an unconfirmed sighting in 1994, a 2008 coronial inquest concluded she had likely died. Her case was reopened in 2022 under Strike Force Anthea, leading to Thursday’s arrest at a unit on Murphy's Avenue in Gwynneville. Police allege the man charged had a connection to Ms Sowry. He has also been charged with concealing a serious indictable offence. “The reason for his arrest is specifically in relation to the suspected disappearance of Pauline,” Assistant Commissioner Joe Cassar said during a press conference. “This is a significant development, and we wanted to tell the public as soon as possible.” Assistant Commissioner Cassar declined to provide details about what led to the arrest but confirmed that investigations would continue “until we can locate Pauline”. Earlier this year, police and the Sowry family announced a $500,000 reward for information leading to a conviction. While the reward has not yet been paid, Cassar acknowledged it acted as a catalyst for new leads in the case. One such lead included the discovery of clothing in bushland in Wollongong’s south, uncovered during a search nine months ago. The garments are still undergoing forensic examination, and authorities have not confirmed if they belonged to Ms Sowry. “We’ll continue to analyse that clothing and any additional items recovered from today’s search warrant,” Cassar added. Ms Sowry had recently separated from her husband at the time of her disappearance. He has since been ruled out as a person of interest. Her son, Jason Lawrence, welcomed the news of the arrest in a statement released Thursday. “We have waited more than 30 years to hear today’s news,” he said. “We miss her every day, and her disappearance has taken a huge toll on myself and our entire family. We thank the police officers for never giving up hope and we look forward to the outcome of this investigation.” Assistant Commissioner Cassar acknowledged the emotional weight of the developments, calling it a “bittersweet time” for the family. The investigation remains active as police continue to search for answers and work towards justice for Pauline Sowry. Images: NSW Police

Family & Pets

Could cold sores increase the risk of Alzheimer’s disease?

<div class="theconversation-article-body"> A <a href="https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/15/5/e093946">new study</a> has found the herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1), which causes cold sores, may be linked to the development of Alzheimer’s disease. This idea is not entirely new. Previous research has suggested there <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jmv.1890330403">may be an association</a> between HSV-1 and Alzheimer’s disease, the <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/dementia">most common form of dementia</a>. So what can we make of these new findings? And how strong is this link? Let’s take a look at the evidence. <h2>First, what is HSV-1?</h2> HSV-1 is a neurotropic virus, meaning it can infect nerve cells, which send and receive messages to and from the brain. It’s an extremely common virus. The <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/herpes-simplex-virus">World Health Organization estimates</a> nearly two-thirds of the global population aged under 50 carries this virus, often unknowingly. An initial infection can cause mild to severe symptoms including fever, headache and muscle aches, and may manifest as blisters and ulcers around the mouth or lips. After this, HSV-1 typically <a href="https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8923070/">lies dormant</a> in the body’s nervous system, sometimes reactivating due to stress or illness. During reactivation, it can cause symptoms such as cold sores, although in many people it doesn’t cause any symptoms. <h2>What did the new research look at?</h2> In a study published this week <a href="https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/15/5/e093946">in BMJ Open</a>, researchers analysed data from hundreds of thousands of people drawn from a large United States health insurance dataset. They conducted a matched “case-control” analysis involving more than 340,000 adults aged 50 and older diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease between 2006 and 2021. Each Alzheimer’s disease patient (a “case”) was matched to a control without a diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease based on factors such as age, sex and geographic region, a method designed to reduce statistical bias. The team then examined how many of these people had a prior diagnosis of HSV-1 and whether they had been prescribed antiviral treatment for the infection. Among people with Alzheimer’s disease, 0.44% had a previous HSV-1 diagnosis, compared to 0.24% of controls. This translates to an 80% increased relative risk of Alzheimer’s disease in those diagnosed with HSV-1, however the absolute numbers are small. The researchers also found people who received antiviral treatment for HSV-1 had roughly a 17% lower risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease compared to those who were untreated. <h2>Not a new hypothesis</h2> This isn’t the first time researchers have speculated about a viral role in Alzheimer’s disease. <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jmv.1890330403">Earlier studies</a> have detected <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(96)10149-5/abstract">HSV-1 DNA in postmortem brain tissues</a> from people who had Alzheimer’s disease. Laboratory research has also shown <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neuron.2018.06.030">HSV-1 can trigger amyloid-beta plaque accumulation</a> in nerve cells and mouse brains. Amyloid-beta plaques are one of the defining features of Alzheimer’s disease pathology, so this has led to speculation that reactivation of the virus may contribute to brain inflammation or damage. But importantly, previous research and the current study show associations, not proof HSV-1 causes Alzheimer’s disease. These links do not confirm the virus initiates or drives disease progression. <blockquote class="bluesky-embed" data-bluesky-uri="at://did:plc:f3ph3ymzcnhpchwqiu4u37g2/app.bsky.feed.post/3lpn5axtbvj2i" data-bluesky-cid="bafyreifwdab7rnvdpu6t3vnupdymct77ojzrhjkwxcndc2lo5b4ipjkvee" data-bluesky-embed-color-mode="system"> Got Cold Sores? You Might Be at Higher Risk for Alzheimer’s https://gizmodo.com/got-cold-sores-you-might-be-at-higher-risk-for-alzheimers-2000603873 <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:f3ph3ymzcnhpchwqiu4u37g2/post/3lpn5axtbvj2i?ref_src=embed">[image or embed]</a> — Gizmodo (<a href="https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:f3ph3ymzcnhpchwqiu4u37g2?ref_src=embed">@gizmodo.com</a>) <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:f3ph3ymzcnhpchwqiu4u37g2/post/3lpn5axtbvj2i?ref_src=embed">May 21, 2025 at 8:31 AM</a></blockquote> <h2>Some other important caveats</h2> The study relied on insurance claim data, which may not always reflect accurate or timely clinical diagnoses. HSV-1 is also frequently underdiagnosed, especially when symptoms are mild or absent. These points could explain why both the Alzheimer’s group and the control group saw such low rates of HSV-1, when population rates of this virus <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/herpes-simplex-virus">are estimated to be far higher</a>. This means many carriers of HSV-1 in the study may have gone unrecorded and therefore makes the link harder to interpret clearly. The dataset also doesn’t capture how often people had recurring symptoms, or the severity or duration of infections – conditions which might influence risk more directly. Another complicating factor is people with HSV-1 might differ in other ways from those without it. Differences in health-care access, the health of a person’s <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00144-4/fulltext">immune system</a>, <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)01296-0/abstract">lifestyle</a>, <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(13)60630-3/abstract">genetics</a>, or even <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)01296-0/abstract">education</a> – could all influence Alzheimer’s disease risk. <h2>So should you be concerned if you have cold sores?</h2> The short answer is no – at least not based on current evidence. Most people with HSV-1 will never develop Alzheimer’s disease. The vast majority live with the virus without any serious neurological issues. The “herpes hypothesis” of Alzheimer’s disease is an interesting area for further research, but far from settled science. This study adds weight to the conversation but doesn’t offer a definitive answer. Alzheimer’s disease is a complex condition with <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/commissions-do/dementia-prevention-intervention-and-care">multiple risk factors</a>, including age, genetics, heart health, education, lifestyle and environmental exposures. Infections such as HSV-1 may be one part of a larger, interconnected puzzle, but they are highly unlikely to be the sole cause. With this in mind, the best thing to do is to focus on what we already know can help keep your brain healthy as you age. <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(25)00184-9/abstract#:%7E:text=Emerging%20evidence%20suggests%20that%20sedentary,impairment%20and%20reduce%20dementia%20risk.">Regular physical activity</a>, <a href="https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/sleep-well-and-reduce-your-risk-of-dementia-and-death-2021050322508">good quality sleep</a>, <a href="https://www.alzheimers.org.uk/about-dementia/managing-the-risk-of-dementia/reduce-your-risk-of-dementia/social-isolation">social engagement</a>, <a href="https://www.alzheimersresearchuk.org/dementia-information/dementia-risk/diet-and-dementia-risk/">a balanced diet</a> and <a href="https://www.health.harvard.edu/mind-and-mood/protect-your-brain-from-stress">managing stress</a> can all support long-term brain health.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/257140/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> By <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/joyce-siette-1377445">Joyce Siette</a>, Associate Professor | Deputy Director, The MARCS Institute for Brain, Behaviour, and Development, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/western-sydney-university-1092">Western Sydney University</a> This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/could-cold-sores-increase-the-risk-of-alzheimers-disease-a-new-study-is-no-cause-for-panic-257140">original article</a>. Image: Gizmodo </div>

Body

Cold Chisel member's sister dies in tragic accident

Brenda Walker, an award-winning Australian author and the sister of Cold Chisel member Don Walker, has been killed in a horrific accident at Kings Park in Perth. The 67-year-old was crossing Kings Park Road on Tuesday when she was hit by an allegedly speeding driver in a Toyota Yaris hatchback just before 7am on Tuesday. She sustained critical injuries in the incident and was rushed to Royal Perth Hospital but could not be saved. “She was such a kind, intelligent, caring and generous person who had a positive effect on many lives,” her family told 7News. “She will be dearly missed by many.” Walker was born in Grafton, NSW and studied at the University of New England in Armidale before gaining a PhD in English at the Australian National University. She moved to Perth in 1984 and was a Winthrop professor of English and cultural studies at the University of Western Australia. A spokesperson from the university has paid tribute to her saying they were deeply saddened to learn of her death. “Our thoughts and condolences are with Professor Walker’s family and friends at this time." A former student also paid tribute on social media, saying: “She was a teacher who changed my life with her great encouragement and her astute methods.” “She got into a lot of corners of my life because you only meet a proper guru every so often. It tends to affect you," he continued. “Brenda’s passing is a massive loss to Australian literature, because there are dozens like me with much the same story, and many many more who have met her through her brilliant writing. Her memory will be a monument.” She has written several award-winning novels including Reading By Moonlight, The Wing of the Night and Poe’s Cat. A 30-year-old man was allegedly driving the Yaris that struck her and was arrested at the scene. He was charged with dangerous driving causing death and appeared at the Perth Magistrates Court on Wednesday. Image: news.com.au/ 7News

Caring

New $1m reward for cold case murder of three children

A new $1 million reward is being offered for information about each of the murders of three First Nations children around 34 years ago. Four-year-old Evelyn Greenup, Clinton Speedy-Duroux, 16, and Colleen Walker-Craig, 16, disappeared from Bowraville, a town in northern NSW over a five-month period from September 1990. Evelyn and Clinton's remains were found in nearby bushland, but Colleen's have never been found. The murders were initially investigated separately before being linked by the homicide squad. Now, after various appeals over the decades, NSW Police have issued a re-appeal for information into the murders, with a particular focus on locating the remains of Colleen. “A $1 million reward for information that leads to the arrest and conviction of the person or persons responsible for each of the children’s murder remains in place, as well as for information leading to the location and recovery of Colleen’s remains,” NSW Police said on Monday. Detectives are also going to be spending the week in Bowraville to speak to locals who may have information about the children's deaths. A man, who can't be named for legal reasons, was acquitted of Clinton's murder in 1994, and Evelyn's murder in 2006. The case was the subject of two police investigations, multiple trials, a coronial inquest, and a parliamentary inquiry. In 2018, the government tried to convince the NSW court of criminal appeal that there was fresh and compelling evidence – related to the disappearance of Colleen – in attempt to overturn the two acquittals and instead have a new single trial on three murder charges. However, the court refused to grant special leave to the NSW government to appeal against the decision. In 2019, hundreds protested in front of the gates of the Court of Appeal when a retrial was denied. Images: 7pm TV News NSW/ ABC News

Legal

I have a stuffy nose, how can I tell if it’s hay fever, COVID or something else?

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/deryn-thompson-1449312">Deryn Thompson</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-south-australia-1180">University of South Australia</a> Hay fever (also called allergic rhinitis) affects <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/health-conditions-and-risks/national-health-survey-state-and-territory-findings/latest-release">24%</a> of Australians. <a href="https://www.allergy.org.au/patients/allergic-rhinitis-hay-fever-and-sinusitis/allergic-rhinitis-or-hay-fever">Symptoms</a> include sneezing, a runny nose (which may feel blocked or stuffy) and itchy eyes. People can also experience an itchy nose, throat or ears. But COVID is still <a href="https://theconversation.com/xec-is-now-in-australia-heres-what-we-know-about-this-hybrid-covid-variant-239292">spreading</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/i-feel-sick-how-do-i-know-if-i-have-the-flu-covid-rsv-or-something-else-234266">other viruses</a> can cause cold-like symptoms. So how do you know which one you’ve got? <h2>Remind me, how does hay fever cause symptoms?</h2> <a href="https://www.allergy.org.au/hp/papers/allergic-rhinitis-clinical-update">Hay fever</a> happens when a person has become “sensitised” to an allergen trigger. This means a person’s body is always primed to react to this trigger. Triggers can include allergens in the air (such as pollen from trees, grasses and flowers), mould spores, animals or house dust mites which mostly live in people’s mattresses and bedding, and feed on shed skin. When the body is exposed to the trigger, it produces IgE (immunoglobulin E) antibodies. These cause the release of many of the body’s own chemicals, including histamine, which result in hay fever symptoms. People who have asthma may find their asthma symptoms (cough, wheeze, tight chest or trouble breathing) worsen when exposed to airborne allergens. Spring and sometimes into summer can be the worst time for people with grass, tree or flower allergies. However, animal and house dust mite symptoms usually happen year-round. <h2>What else might be causing my symptoms?</h2> Hay fever does not cause a fever, sore throat, muscle aches and pains, weakness, loss of taste or smell, nor does it cause you to cough up mucus. These symptoms are likely to be caused by a virus, such as COVID, influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) or a “cold” (often caused by rhinoviruses). These conditions can occur all year round, with some overlap of symptoms: <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/624085/original/file-20241007-16-xf6euv.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/624085/original/file-20241007-16-xf6euv.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/624085/original/file-20241007-16-xf6euv.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/624085/original/file-20241007-16-xf6euv.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/624085/original/file-20241007-16-xf6euv.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/624085/original/file-20241007-16-xf6euv.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=731&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/624085/original/file-20241007-16-xf6euv.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=731&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/624085/original/file-20241007-16-xf6euv.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=731&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="" /></a><figcaption><a class="source" href="https://theconversation.com/i-feel-sick-how-do-i-know-if-i-have-the-flu-covid-rsv-or-something-else-234266">Natasha Yates/The Conversation</a></figcaption></figure> COVID still <a href="https://theconversation.com/xec-is-now-in-australia-heres-what-we-know-about-this-hybrid-covid-variant-239292">surrounds</a> us. <a href="https://www.sahealth.sa.gov.au/wps/wcm/connect/public+content/sa+health+internet/about+us/health+statistics/surveillance+of+notifiable+conditions/respiratory+infections+dashboard">RSV and influenza</a> rates appear higher than before the COVID pandemic, but it may be <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10888990/#:%7E:text=Increases%20in%20RSV%20patient%20volume,with%20an%20RSV%20diagnosis%20occurred">due to more testing</a>. So if you have a fever, sore throat, muscle aches/pains, weakness, fatigue, or are coughing up mucus, stay home and avoid mixing with others to limit transmission. People with COVID symptoms can take a rapid antigen test (<a href="https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-04/coronavirus-covid-19-rapid-antigen-tests.pdf">RAT</a>), ideally when <a href="https://www.cochrane.org/CD013705/INFECTN_how-accurate-are-rapid-antigen-tests-diagnosing-covid-19">symptoms start</a>, then isolate until symptoms disappear. <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2023/219/11/covid-19-rapid-antigen-tests-approved-self-testing-australia-published">One negative RAT alone</a> can’t rule out COVID if symptoms are still present, so test again 24–48 hours after your initial test if symptoms persist. You can now test yourself for COVID, RSV and influenza in a <a href="https://www.tga.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-02/covid-19-rapid-antigen-self-tests-are-approved-australia-ifu-406813.PDF">combined RAT</a>. But again, a negative test doesn’t rule out the virus. If your symptoms continue, <a href="https://www.tga.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-02/covid-19-rapid-antigen-self-tests-are-approved-australia-ifu-406813.PDF">test again</a> 24–48 hours after the previous test. <h2>If it’s hay fever, how do I treat it?</h2> Treatment involves blocking the body’s histamine release, by taking antihistamine medication which helps reduce the symptoms. Doctors, nurse practitioners and pharmacists can develop a <a href="https://www.allergy.org.au/images/pc/ASCIA_Allergic_Rhinitis_Treatment_Plan_2024.pdf">hay fever care plan</a>. This may include using a nasal spray containing a topical corticosteroid to help reduce the swelling inside the nose, which causes stuffiness or blockage. Nasal sprays need to delivered <a href="https://allergyfacts.org.au/are-you-using-your-nasal-spray-correctly/">using correct technique</a> and used over several weeks to work properly. Often these sprays can also help lessen the itchy eyes of hay fever. Drying bed linen and pyjamas inside during spring can <a href="https://www.allergy.org.au/patients/allergy-treatments/allergen-minimisation">lessen symptoms</a>, as can putting a <a href="https://www.nps.org.au/consumers/managing-hay-fever">smear of Vaseline</a> in the nostrils when going outside. Pollen sticks to the Vaseline, and gently blowing your nose later removes it. People with asthma should also have an <a href="https://asthma.org.au/manage-asthma/asthma-action-plan/">asthma plan</a>, created by their doctor or nurse practitioner, explaining how to adjust their asthma reliever and preventer medications in hay fever seasons or on allergen exposure. People with asthma also need to be <a href="https://www.nationalasthma.org.au/living-with-asthma/resources/patients-carers/factsheets/thunderstorm-asthma">alert for thunderstorms</a>, where pollens can burst into tinier particles, be inhaled deeper in the lungs and cause a severe asthma attack, and even death. <h2>What if it’s COVID, RSV or the flu?</h2> Australians aged 70 and over and others with underlying health conditions who test positive for COVID are <a href="https://www.healthdirect.gov.au/covid-19/medications#at-home">eligible for antivirals</a> to reduce their chance of severe illness. Most other people with COVID, RSV and influenza will recover at home with rest, fluids and paracetamol to relieve symptoms. However some groups are at greater risk of serious illness and may require additional treatment or hospitalisation. For <a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/factsheets/Pages/respiratory-syncytial-virus.aspx">RSV</a>, this includes premature infants, babies 12 months and younger, children under two who have other medical conditions, adults over 75, people with heart and lung conditions, or health conditions that lessens the immune system response. For influenza, people at <a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/Influenza/Pages/at-risk.aspx">higher risk</a> of severe illness are pregnant women, Aboriginal people, people under five or over 65 years, or people with long-term medical conditions, such as kidney, heart, lung or liver disease, diabetes and decreased immunity. If you’re concerned about severe symptoms of COVID, RSV or influenza, consult your doctor or call 000 in an emergency. If your symptoms are mild but persist, and you’re not sure what’s causing them, book an appointment with your doctor or nurse practitioner. Although hay fever season is here, we need to avoid spreading other serious infectious. For more information, you can call the healthdirect helpline on 1800 022 222 (known as NURSE-ON-CALL in Victoria); use the <a href="https://www.healthdirect.gov.au/symptom-checker">online Symptom Checker</a>; or visit <a href="http://healthdirect.gov.au/">healthdirect.gov.au</a> or the <a href="https://www.allergy.org.au/patients/allergy-treatments/allergen-minimisation">Australian Society of Clinical Immunology and Allergy</a>.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/240453/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/deryn-thompson-1449312">Deryn Thompson</a>, Eczema and Allergy Nurse; Lecturer, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-south-australia-1180">University of South Australia</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/i-have-a-stuffy-nose-how-can-i-tell-if-its-hay-fever-covid-or-something-else-240453">original article</a>. </div>

Body

Climate change threatens Australian tourism more than is widely believed. Here’s why

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/freya-higgins-desbiolles-181651">Freya Higgins-Desbiolles</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-south-australia-1180">University of South Australia</a> Right now, Australia is one of the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/publications/travel-tourism-development-index-2024/">top five</a> tourist destinations in the world, a distinction the World Economic Forum says it shares with only the United States, France, Spain and Japan. So important is tourism to Australia’s economy that the best estimates are it employs <a href="https://www.tra.gov.au/en/economic-analysis/state-of-the-industry">655,000</a> people, 12 times as many as <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia-detailed/jul-2024">Australia’s coal industry</a>. And most of them are employed in <a href="https://www.zurich.com.au/content/dam/au-documents/files/zurich-mandala-climate-risk-index-the-impact-of-climate-change-on-the-australian-tourism-industry.pdf">regional locations</a>, where jobs are scarce. This month a report by the Zurich insurance group and the economic consultancy Mandala found <a href="https://www.zurich.com.au/content/dam/au-documents/files/zurich-mandala-climate-risk-index-the-impact-of-climate-change-on-the-australian-tourism-industry.pdf">half</a> of Australia’s top 178 tourism assets were at risk from foreseeable climate change. There are reasons to believe its findings underplay what we are facing. <h2>All major airports, all national parks at risk</h2> The Zurich-Mandala report examines the impact of a 2⁰C increase in global temperatures on only eight so-called “climate perils”: wind, flood, heat, storm, drought, bushfire, hail and rain. It found that more than half of Australia’s top tourism assets faced a “significant risk from multiple perils” over the next 25 years, including all of Australia’s major airports. Scheduling disruptions and the closure of airports in extreme weather conditions were set to have major impacts on the transport of goods, the transport of tourists and accessibility for emergency services. All of Australia’s vineyards, national parks, scenic roads and railways were at risk. Queensland had the highest number of sites facing significant risk (79%) followed by Western Australia (69%) and the Northern Territory (63%). The report uses the impact of the 2019-20 <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/Quick_Guides/AustralianBushfires">black summer bushfires</a> to estimate that 176,000 jobs might be at risk nationwide from predictable climate change, most of them outside of Australia’s capital cities. <h2>Multiple and interacting threats</h2> Here is why I am fearful that the report underplays the threat Australia’s tourism industry is facing. There are many more threats to tourism from climate change than wind, flood, heat, storm, drought, bushfire, hail and rain. One is the threat to biodiversity. Iconic animals and habitats are an important part of Australia’s brand. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-28/3-billion-animals-killed-displaced-in-fires-wwf-study/12497976">Three billion</a> animals were killed or displaced in the black summer bushfires. The deaths caused <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/01/alexis-wright-black-summer-bushfires-vigil-sydney-speech-3-billion-animals-killed-are-our-relatives-they-deserve-to-be-mourned">loss and grief</a> that risk indexes are incapable of capturing, but that nonetheless might make tourism less attractive. And biodiversity helps in another way by <a href="https://www.australianwildlife.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Hayward-Et-Al.-2016-Could-biodiversity-loss-have-increased-Australias-bushfire-threat.pdf">protecting against bushfires</a>, meaning that as species vanish, other risks to tourism climb in ways that aren’t captured in the assumptions used to evaluate risk. <h2>Threats unexamined</h2> What makes holiday locations unattractive is hard to measure, but is fed by extreme weather events. Although temporary, the smoke and heat from the 2019-20 bushfires made parts of Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra almost unlivable for a while, damaging the reputations of Australian capital cities in a way that is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/not-a-good-look-bushfire-smoke-threatens-to-pollute-sydney-s-tourist-image-20191206-p53hpl.html">probably ongoing</a>. Another curious omission, especially curious given that the report was prepared by an insurance company, is the damage extreme weather events do to the insurability of tourism assets. The report is also silent on the effort to reduce carbon emissions on Australia’s desirability as an international destination. For many tourists, air travel is the only way to get to Australia and it is likely to become more expensive and also less attractive as tourists try to reduce their <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959652614011810">carbon footprints</a>. Australia might increasingly become an Australian rather than an international destination. Our biggest upcoming international promotion, the 2032 Brisbane Olympic Games, might lose a good deal of its shine, with Queensland tourism assets at the greatest risk from climate change, and those risks set to climb over time. <h2>The higher the temperature the bigger the threats</h2> Zurich and the Mandala consultancy are to be commended for identifying 178 top tourism assets and examining eight types of risk they face. Their finding that just over half of them face serious threats from those risks is likely to be an underestimate because it excludes other risks and fails to examine the way in which some risks can intensify others. And they will be an underestimate if global temperatures climb by more than 2⁰C. The report says if global temperatures climb to 3⁰C above pre-industrial levels, 80% of the Australian sites it examined will face serious threats. Australia could attempt to limit the increase in global temperatures by taking up the opportunity to co-host the <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-a-big-deal-if-australia-and-the-pacific-are-chosen-to-host-un-climate-talks-heres-why-238320">2026 UN climate talks</a> with Pacific nations. It would give us a shot at making a difference and drawing attention to our present status as one of the world’s top tourism destinations.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/238768/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/freya-higgins-desbiolles-181651">Freya Higgins-Desbiolles</a>, Adjunct professor and adjunct senior lecturer in tourism management, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-south-australia-1180">University of South Australia</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-threatens-australian-tourism-more-than-is-widely-believed-heres-why-238768">original article</a>. </div>

Domestic Travel

40°C in August? A climate expert explains why Australia is ridiculously hot right now

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-king-103126">Andrew King</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> It’s winter in Australia, but as you’ve probably noticed, the weather is unusually warm. The top temperatures over large parts of the country this weekend were well above average for this time of year. The outback town of Oodnadatta in South Australia recorded 38.5°C on Friday and 39.4°C on Saturday – about 16°C above average. Both days were well above the state’s previous winter temperature record. In large parts of Australia, the heat is expected to persist into the coming week. A high pressure system is bringing this unusual heat – and it’s hanging around. So temperature records have already fallen and may continue to be broken for some towns in the next few days. It’s no secret the world is warming. In fact, 2024 is shaping up to be <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-2024-now-very-likely-to-be-warmest-year-on-record/">the hottest year on record</a>. Climate change is upon us. Historical averages are becoming just that: a thing of the past. That’s why this winter heat is concerning. The warming trend will continue for at least as long as we keep burning fossil fuels and polluting the atmosphere. Remember, this is only August. The heatwaves of spring and summer are only going to be hotter. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GmhMKjxEGQo?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe><figcaption>Widespread heat forecast for Australia in August, 2024 (Bureau of Meteorology)</figcaption></figure> <h2>Records broken across Australia</h2> The Bureau of Meteorology was expecting many records to be broken over the weekend across several states. On Thursday, bureau meteorologist Angus Hines described: <blockquote> A scorching end to winter, with widespread heat around the country in coming days, including the chance of winter records across multiple states for maximum temperature. </blockquote> The amount of heat plunging into central Australia was particularly unusual, Hines said. On Friday, temperatures across northern South Australia and southern parts of the Northern Territory were as much as 15°C above average. Temperatures continued to soar across northern parts of Western Australia over the weekend, with over 40°C recorded at Fitzroy Crossing on Sunday. It has been 2–12°C above average from Townsville all the way down to Melbourne for several days in a row. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Animated maximum temperature anomaly map showing heat building across central Australia" /></a><figcaption>Maximum temperature anomalies from August 19-24, showing heat building across Australia. Bureau of Meteorology, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></figcaption></figure> Bear in mind, it’s only August. As Hines said, the fire weather season hasn’t yet hit most of Australia – but the current conditions – hot, dry and sometimes windy – are bringing moderate to high fire danger across Australia. It may also bring dusty conditions to central Australia. And for latitudes north of Sydney and Perth, most of the coming week will be warm. <h2>What’s causing the winter warmth?</h2> <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_col.shtml">In recent days</a> a stubborn high pressure system has sat over eastern Australia and the Tasman Sea. It has kept skies clear over much of the continent and brought northerly winds over many areas, transporting warm air to the south. High pressure promotes warm weather – both through clearer skies that bring more sunshine, and by promoting the descent of air which <a href="https://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/2544/explainer-what-influences-air-temperature/">causes heating</a>. By late August, both the intensity of the sun and the length of the day has increased. So the centre of Australia can really warm up when under the right conditions. High pressure in June can be associated with cooler conditions, because more heat is lost from the surface during those long winter nights. But that’s already less of an issue by late August. This kind of weather setup has occurred in the past. Late-winter or early-spring heat does sometimes occur in Australia. However, this warm spell is exceptional, as highlighted by the broken temperature records across the country. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Graph of August Australian-average temperatures increasing since 1910" /></a><figcaption>August temperatures have been rising over the past century. Bureau of Meteorology</figcaption></figure> <h2>Feeling the heat</h2> The consequences of humanity’s continued greenhouse gas emissions are clear. Australia’s winters are getting warmer overall. And winter “heatwaves” are becoming warmer. Australia’s three warmest Augusts on record have all occurred since 2000 – and <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-is-australia-having-such-a-warm-winter-a-climate-expert-explains-210693">last August was the second-warmest since 1910</a>. When the right weather conditions occur for winter warmth across Australia, the temperatures are higher than a century ago. The warmth we are experiencing now comes off the back of <a href="https://theconversation.com/earth-has-just-ended-a-13-month-streak-of-record-heat-heres-what-to-expect-next-236655">a recent run of global temperature records</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-heat-is-breaking-global-records-why-this-isnt-just-summer-and-what-climate-change-has-to-do-with-it-234249">extreme heat events across the Northern Hemisphere</a>. This warm spell is set to continue, with temperatures above 30°C forecast from Wednesday through to Sunday in Brisbane. The outlook for spring points to continued <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/temperature/maximum/median/seasonal/0">above-normal temperatures</a> across the continent, but as always we will likely see both warm and cold spells at times. Such winter warmth is exceptional and already breaking records. Climate change is already increasing the frequency and intensity of this kind of winter heat – and future warm spells will be hotter still, if humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions continue.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/237398/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-king-103126">Andrew King</a>, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/40-c-in-august-a-climate-expert-explains-why-australia-is-ridiculously-hot-right-now-237398">original article</a>. </div>

Domestic Travel

I’ve recovered from a cold but I still have a hoarse voice. What should I do?

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/yeptain-leung-1563747">Yeptain Leung</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> Cold, flu, COVID and <a href="https://theconversation.com/rsv-is-everywhere-right-now-what-parents-need-to-know-about-respiratory-syncytial-virus-208855">RSV</a> have been <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-21/flu-whooping-cough-rsv-cases-up-as-covid-cases-unkown/104002964">circulating across Australia this winter</a>. Many of us have caught and recovered from <a href="https://theconversation.com/i-feel-sick-how-do-i-know-if-i-have-the-flu-covid-rsv-or-something-else-234266">one of these</a> common upper respiratory tract infections. But for some people their impact is ongoing. Even if your throat isn’t <a href="https://theconversation.com/sore-throats-suck-do-throat-lozenges-help-at-all-184454">sore</a> anymore, your voice may still be hoarse or croaky. So what happens to the voice when we get a virus? And what happens after? Here’s what you should know if your voice is still hoarse for days – or even weeks – after your other symptoms have resolved. <h2>Why does my voice get croaky during a cold?</h2> A healthy voice is normally clear and strong. It’s powered by the lungs, which push air past the vocal cords to make them vibrate. These vibrations are amplified in the throat and mouth, creating the voice we hear. The vocal cords are two elastic muscles situated in your throat, around the level of your laryngeal prominence, or Adam’s apple. (Although everyone has one, it tends to be more pronounced in males.) The vocal cords are small and delicate – around the size of your fingernail. Any small change in their structure will affect how the voice sounds. When the vocal cords become inflamed – known as laryngitis – your voice will sound different. Laryngitis is a common part of upper respiratory tract infections, but can also be caused through misuse. <figure class="align-center "><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/614706/original/file-20240821-17-nzg1mc.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/614706/original/file-20240821-17-nzg1mc.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/614706/original/file-20240821-17-nzg1mc.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/614706/original/file-20240821-17-nzg1mc.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/614706/original/file-20240821-17-nzg1mc.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/614706/original/file-20240821-17-nzg1mc.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/614706/original/file-20240821-17-nzg1mc.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Two drawn circles comparing normal vocal cords with inflamed, red vocal cords." /><figcaption>Viruses such as the common cold can inflame the vocal cords. <a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/dry-sore-loss-cough-virus-viral-1821458117">Pepermpron/Shutterstock</a></figcaption></figure> Catching a virus triggers the body’s defence mechanisms. White blood cells are recruited to kill the virus and heal the tissues in the vocal cords. They become inflamed, but also stiffer. It’s harder for them to vibrate, so the voice comes out hoarse and croaky. In some instances, you may find it hard to speak in a loud voice or have a reduced pitch range, meaning you can’t go as high or loud as normal. You may even “lose” your voice altogether. Coughing can also make things worse. It is the body’s way of trying to clear the airways of irritation, including your own mucus dripping onto your throat (<a href="https://www.health.harvard.edu/staying-healthy/treatments-for-post-nasal-drip">post-nasal drip</a>). But coughing slams the vocal cords together with force. Chronic coughing can lead to persistent inflammation and even thicken the vocal cords. This thickening is the body trying to protect itself, similar to developing a callus when a pair of new shoes rubs. Thickening on your vocal cords can lead to physical changes in the vocal cords – such as developing a growth or “nodule” – and further deterioration of your voice quality. <figure class="align-center "><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/614707/original/file-20240821-21-vizs73.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/614707/original/file-20240821-21-vizs73.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/614707/original/file-20240821-21-vizs73.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/614707/original/file-20240821-21-vizs73.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/614707/original/file-20240821-21-vizs73.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/614707/original/file-20240821-21-vizs73.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/614707/original/file-20240821-21-vizs73.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Diagram compares healthy vocal cords with cords that have nodules, two small bumps." /><figcaption>Coughing and exertion can cause inflamed vocal cords to thicken and develop nodules. <a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/dry-sore-loss-cough-virus-viral-1821458126">Pepermpron/Shutterstock</a></figcaption></figure> <h2>How can you care for your voice during infection?</h2> People who use their voices a lot professionally – such as teachers, call centre workers and singers – are often desperate to resume their vocal activities. They are <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7478078/">more at risk</a> of forcing their voice before it’s ready. The good news is most viral infections resolve themselves. Your voice is usually restored within five to ten days of recovering from a cold. Occasionally, your pharmacist or doctor may prescribe cough suppressants to limit additional damage to the vocal cords (among other reasons) or mucolytics, which break down mucus. But the most effective treatments for viral upper respiratory tract infections are hydration and rest. Drink plenty of water, avoid alcohol and exposure to cigarette smoke. <a href="https://www.healthdirect.gov.au/laryngitis#:%7E:text=You%20can%20help%20your%20voice%20recover%20by%3A%201,avoid%20nasal%20decongestants%20%28these%20make%20your%20throat%20drier%29">Inhaling steam</a> by making yourself a cup of hot water will also help clear blocked noses and hydrate your vocal cords. Rest your voice by talking as little as possible. If you do need to talk, don’t whisper – this <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0892199704001730">strains the muscles</a>. Instead, consider using “<a href="https://www.instagram.com/reel/C0d-oNIMM1y/">confidential voice</a>”. This is a soft voice – not a whisper – that gently vibrates your vocal cords but puts less strain on your voice than normal speech. Think of the voice you use when communicating with someone close by. During the first five to ten days of your infection, it is important not to push through. Exerting the voice by talking a lot or loudly will only exacerbate the situation. Once you’ve recovered from your cold, you can speak as you would normally. <h2>What should you do if your voice is still hoarse after recovery?</h2> If your voice hasn’t returned to normal after <a href="https://www.healthdirect.gov.au/laryngitis">two to three weeks</a>, you should seek medical attention from your doctor, who may refer you to an ear nose and throat specialist. If you’ve developed a nodule, the specialist would likely refer you to a speech pathologist who will show you how to take care of your voice. Many nodules can be <a href="https://britishvoiceassociation.org.uk/voicecare_vocal-nodules.htm">treated</a> with voice therapy and don’t require surgery. You may have also developed a habit of straining your vocal cords, if you forced yourself to speak or sing while they were inflamed. This can be a reason why some people continue to have a hoarse voice even when they’ve recovered from the cold. In those cases, a speech pathologist may play a valuable role. They may teach you to exercises that make voicing more efficient. For example, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwNPp-RS4IY">lip trills</a> (blowing raspberries) are a fun and easy way you can learn to relax the voice. This can help break the habit of straining your voice you may have developed during infection.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/236398/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/yeptain-leung-1563747">Yeptain Leung</a>, Postdoctoral Research and Lecturer of Speech Pathology, School of Health Sciences, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/ive-recovered-from-a-cold-but-i-still-have-a-hoarse-voice-what-should-i-do-236398">original article</a>. </div>

Body

No, your aches and pains don’t get worse in the cold. So why do we think they do?

<div class="theconversation-article-body"> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/manuela-ferreira-161420">Manuela Ferreira</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/george-institute-for-global-health-874">George Institute for Global Health</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/leticia-deveza-1550633">Leticia Deveza</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841">University of Sydney</a> It’s cold and wet outside. As you get out of bed, you can feel it in your bones. Your right knee is flaring up again. That’ll make it harder for you to walk the dog or go to the gym. You think it must be because of the weather. It’s a common idea, but a myth. When we looked at the evidence, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0049017224000337">we found</a> no direct link between most common aches and pains and the weather. In the first study of its kind, we found no direct link between the temperature or humidity with most joint or muscle aches and pains. So why are so many of us convinced the weather’s to blame? Here’s what we think is really going on. <h2>Weather can be linked to your health</h2> The weather is often associated with the risk of new and ongoing health conditions. For example, cold temperatures <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27021573/">may worsen</a> asthma symptoms. Hot temperatures <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(22)00117-6/fulltext">increase the risk</a> of heart problems, such as arrhythmia (irregular heartbeat), cardiac arrest and coronary heart disease. Many people are also convinced the weather is linked to their aches and pains. For example, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1479-8077.2004.00099.x?casa_token=jvpSbA4szqoAAAAA%3ATyHyGaqXmfevWyuJe6LW_3Pap3IPHC8HSMTl3RN63mFzNO0X7ozQjBb6Bi3yVFuPjqkrf-WlB-J5A1q1">two in every three</a> people with knee, hip or hand osteoarthritis <a href="https://bmcmusculoskeletdisord.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2474-15-66">say</a> cold temperatures trigger their symptoms. Musculoskeletal conditions affect more than <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/chronic-musculoskeletal-conditions/musculoskeletal-conditions-comorbidity-australia/summary">seven million Australians</a>. So we set out to find out whether weather is really the culprit behind winter flare-ups. <h2>What we did</h2> Very few studies have been specifically and appropriately designed to look for any direct link between weather changes and joint or muscle pain. And ours is the first to evaluate data from these particular studies. We looked at data from more than 15,000 people from around the world. Together, these people reported more than 28,000 episodes of pain, mostly back pain, knee or hip osteoarthritis. People with rheumatoid arthritis and gout were also included. We then compared the frequency of those pain reports between different types of weather: hot or cold, humid or dry, rainy, windy, as well as some combinations (for example, hot and humid versus cold and dry). <h2>What we found</h2> We found changes in air temperature, humidity, air pressure and rainfall do not increase the risk of knee, hip or lower back pain symptoms and are not associated with people seeking care for a new episode of arthritis. The results of this study suggest we do not experience joint or muscle pain flare-ups as a result of changes in the weather, and a cold day will not increase our risk of having knee or back pain. In order words, there is no direct link between the weather and back, knee or hip pain, nor will it give you arthritis. It is important to note, though, that very cold air temperatures (under 10°C) were rarely studied so we cannot make conclusions about worsening symptoms in more extreme changes in the weather. The only exception to our findings was for gout, an inflammatory type of arthritis that can come and go. Here, pain increased in warmer, dry conditions. Gout has a very different underlying biological mechanism to back pain or knee and hip osteoarthritis, which may explain our results. The combination of warm and dry weather may lead to increased dehydration and consequently increased concentration of uric acid in the blood, and deposition of uric acid crystals in the joint in people with gout, resulting in a flare-up. <h2>Why do people blame the weather?</h2> The weather can influence other factors and behaviours that consequently shape how we perceive and manage pain. For example, some people may change their physical activity routine during winter, choosing the couch over the gym. And we know <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28700451/">prolonged sitting</a>, for instance, is directly linked to worse back pain. Others may change their sleep routine or sleep less well when it is either too cold or too warm. Once again, a bad night’s sleep can trigger your <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00586-021-06730-6">back</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1063458421007020">knee</a> pain. Likewise, changes in mood, often experienced in cold weather, trigger increases in both <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00586-021-06730-6">back</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1063458421007020">knee</a> pain. So these changes in behaviour over winter may contribute to more aches and pains, and not the weather itself. Believing our pain will feel worse in winter (even if this is not the case) may also make us feel worse in winter. This is known as the <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12891-018-1943-8">nocebo effect</a>. <h2>What to do about winter aches and pains?</h2> It’s best to focus on risk factors for pain you can control and modify, rather than ones you can’t (such as the weather). You can: <ul> <li> become more physically active. This winter, and throughout the year, aim to walk more, or talk to your health-care provider about gentle exercises you can safely do at home, with a physiotherapist, personal trainer or at the pool </li> <li> lose weight if obese or overweight, as this is linked to <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2799405">lower levels</a> of joint pain and better physical function </li> <li> keep your body warm in winter if you feel some muscle tension in uncomfortably cold conditions. Also ensure your bedroom is nice and warm as we tend to sleep <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0033350623003359">less well</a> in cold rooms </li> <li> maintain a healthy diet and <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanrhe/article/PIIS2665-9913(23)00098-X/fulltext">avoid smoking</a> or drinking high levels of alcohol. These are among <a href="https://ard.bmj.com/content/annrheumdis/82/1/48.full.pdf">key lifestyle recommendations</a> to better manage many types of arthritis and musculoskeletal conditions. For people with back pain, for example, a healthy lifestyle is linked with <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36208321/">higher levels</a> of physical function.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/235117/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> </li> </ul> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/manuela-ferreira-161420">Manuela Ferreira</a>, Professor of Musculoskeletal Health, Head of Musculoskeletal Program, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/george-institute-for-global-health-874">George Institute for Global Health</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/leticia-deveza-1550633">Leticia Deveza</a>, Rheumatologist and Research Fellow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841">University of Sydney</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-your-aches-and-pains-dont-get-worse-in-the-cold-so-why-do-we-think-they-do-235117">original article</a>. </div>

Body

Is Australia’s climate confusing you? Here’s why rainfall and temperatures don’t always behave as expected

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/carly-tozer-1404662">Carly Tozer</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/csiro-1035">CSIRO</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/james-risbey-2011">James Risbey</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/csiro-1035">CSIRO</a> In the past few years in Australia, seasonal rainfall and temperatures have left a lot of people confused. Sometimes, the hot, dry conditions usually associated with an El Niño have not eventuated. Similarly, there have been years where a La Niña did not lead to the cool, wet conditions expected. It’s important for scientists to better understand all weather processes at play, so we can manage expectations around what Australia might experience when climate drivers such as El Niño and La Niña are forecast in future. That’s where our <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/aop/MWR-D-23-0112.1/MWR-D-23-0112.1.xml">new research</a> comes in. We examined the state of play in November 2020 and November 2021. La Niña conditions occurred in both years. November 2021 followed the La Niña script and was wet and cool, but November 2020 departed from expectations and was dry and warm. We set out to determine why. We found the differences could be explained by fluctuations in the path of storms over the Australian continent. These fluctuations can be hard to predict well in advance, which makes it difficult to say for certain how a particular La Niña or El Niño event will affect Australia. <h2>A tale of two Novembers</h2> For large parts of Australia, the presence of a La Niña or El Niño <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-an-el-nino-the-answer-might-surprise-you-198510">shifts the odds</a> of experiencing wet or dry conditions. Our analysis of Novembers 2020 and 2021 shows how actual outcomes can differ from, or align with, expectations. The first step in our analysis was to examine <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-does-el-nino-do-to-the-weather-in-your-state-218257">other climate drivers</a>, including the Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Annular Mode. We wanted to know if these drivers were in the same phase – negative, neutral or positive – during those two Novembers a year apart. So what did we find? In addition to La Nina, both Novembers occurred during positive Southern Annular Mode phases and very weak negative Indian Ocean Dipole phases. These phases are typically associated with more rainfall in Australia. So this didn’t explain why November 2020 was hot and dry. Next, we looked to the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/?bookmark=mjo">Madden Julian Oscillation</a>. When this driver is located in the Australian region, it has been linked to more rainfall in Australia. Although the oscillation was in different phases during November 2020 and 2021, we found in general, this driver does not strongly influence rainfall across all of Australia in November. It was time to look for answers elsewhere. <h2>Jet streams: a key piece in the puzzle</h2> Next, we examined weather systems – in other words, the movement of high and low pressure systems across the globe. These systems are partly controlled by jet streams, which are bands of wind in the upper atmosphere. The effect of jet streams on weather systems, including storms, means they influence rainfall in the regions they pass over. We found there was a strong jet stream over Australia in November 2021. This would have assisted the development of any rain-bearing low-pressure systems moving in from the west, allowing these systems to travel across the Australian continent. These systems brought rain and contributed to the very wet conditions. In November 2020, the jet stream was largely absent over Australia. Instead, it was pushed south of the continent, which means rainfall systems received little help and were also largely steered south. That contributed to the dry month. But why did the jet streams develop in the first place? They form in part due to temperature differences, and are found in the zones where the temperature contrast between warm and cool air is strongest. In November 2021, Australia experienced cooler temperatures over land, but above-average sea surface temperatures in the waters off northern Australia. This pattern set up the zone of strongest temperature contrasts over the continent, which led to a persistent jet stream there. In November 2020, Australia was relatively warm both over land and on the sea surface to the north. This meant that the strongest temperature contrasts (and the jet stream) now sat at the junction between the warm continent and cooler Southern Ocean. <h2>But wait, there’s more</h2> So why were temperatures over Australia so different? To help answer this question we shifted our analysis from the monthly timescale to the daily timescale. That’s because atmospheric features such as jet streams vary strongly from day to day. We found for about the first three weeks of November 2021, a large low-pressure system – also known as a trough – was sitting south of Australia. It pumped cold air onto the continent, cooling it down. This maximised the north-south temperature difference between the warm sea surface temperatures to the north of Australia and the cool of the continent. And as we know, this aided the development of the jet stream over Australia. In November 2020, the continent started off relatively warm. And for a large portion of the month, there was a large high-pressure system over Australia, pulling warmer air from the tropics over the continent. This system would have also promoted clear skies over Australia and enhanced heating coming from the sun, contributing to the warm Australian continent in November 2020. <h2>More puzzle pieces to fit</h2> November 2020’s hot, dry conditions were not the only time a climate driver has failed to bring the conditions some had anticipated. Just last year El Niño <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/jan/03/experts-warned-el-nino-was-likely-to-bring-australia-a-hot-dry-summer-what-happened">did not deliver</a> expected dry conditions, leaving many people scratching their heads. Climate drivers play an important role in shaping rainfall. But they’re not the whole story. As our research shows, sometimes they are confounded by changes in weather patterns, which might mean that our expectations of a wet month or season don’t always play out. When it comes to Australia’s climate puzzle, these findings show there’s more to understand about the role of weather.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/233345/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/carly-tozer-1404662">Carly Tozer</a>, Senior Research Scientist, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/csiro-1035">CSIRO</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/james-risbey-2011">James Risbey</a>, Researcher, Oceans and Atmosphere, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/csiro-1035">CSIRO</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-australias-climate-confusing-you-heres-why-rainfall-and-temperatures-dont-always-behave-as-expected-233345">original article</a>. </div>

Domestic Travel

Major breakthrough solves 44-year-old cold case

A decades-old mystery surrounding a human jawbone found on Umina Beach on the NSW Central Coast has been solved, thanks to advances in DNA analysis techniques. The jawbone, discovered by a dog walker in June 2020, was recently identified as belonging to a teenager who tragically drowned nearly half a century ago. Police announced the breakthrough in a statement on Sunday, revealing that the jawbone belonged to Henry Coleman, a 17-year-old who died in an accidental drowning on the Central Coast in August 1980. The remains, though blackened, were remarkably well-preserved and still contained some teeth when found on the beach. Detectives initially determined the remains were human and male, but extensive traditional inquiries failed to establish an identity. It wasn't until March 2023 that a major breakthrough was made using new DNA analysis technology. This technology, which combines advanced DNA analysis with traditional genealogy, allowed investigators to use commercial DNA databases to identify suspects and unknown remains. The key to solving the case was a genetic link to a possible living relative. A voluntary DNA sample from this relative confirmed the jawbone belonged to Coleman. The young man had been laid to rest in the 1980s, but it was not known at the time that part of his jaw was missing. Detective Inspector Ritchie Sim highlighted the importance of public participation in resolving missing persons cases. "This investigation showcases the importance of DNA testing in missing person cases," he said. "Without the combined efforts of our detectives, scientists, and analysts, we would not have been able to return these remains to their resting place and provide closure to Mr Coleman’s family." Sim went on to urge those who have reported a family member missing to police, and who have the Event number, to provide their DNA at a local police station. "Just like in Mr Coleman’s case, your relationship with the missing person can be several generations apart," he added. Images: 7News

Legal

Ted Bundy cold case finally solved after 51 years

In March 1973 the half-naked body of Ann Woodward was found brutally murdered on the floor inside the pub that she owned with her husband. The 46-year-old mother's body was discovered between two pool tables, with her shirt unbuttoned and pants used to strangle her. Her murder has haunted the small US desert town of Moab, Utah for over half a century. While police were never able to find her killer, they believed Ted Bundy was the likely culprit, as he had raped and killed multiple women in the area around the time of her death. While Bundy admitted to thirty murders, his real victim count is unknown. However, they had not been able to prove that he was the culprit due to a lack of evidence, so police assumed she was just another one of his unnamed victims. 25 other men, including Douglas Keith Chudomelka, had also been of interest to police after the crime, as witnesses spotted Chudomelka's sedan parked near the victims car on the night of the murder. However, when Chudomelka was interviewed the next day, he denied being at the bar, and insisted that he was at a nearby tavern. His girlfriend at the time, a woman named Joyce, also backed his statement and said he was home at the time of the murder on March 2, 1973. A few months later, Chudomelka was arrested on a domestic violence charge, with an angry Joyce claiming he had been the one who killed Ann Woodward, but she soon retracted her statement. With no new leads, the case went cold, but forward-thinking Police Chief Melvin Dalton, decided to keep DNA evidence from both the victim and all potential suspects anyways, in hopes that one day the right technology would be used to identify the killer. In 2006, Dalton reopened the case, but had no luck until September 2023, when Detective Jeremy Dexler decided to uncover the two boxes of evidence collected from the initial investigation and send it to the crime lab. The DNA evidence had sat at the Moab police department's storage units for over 50 years and was not easy to locate as it had been moved to another building. The evidence was crucial in solving the cold case. When results from the crime lab came back at the end of May 2024, they confirmed that a substantial amount of Chudomelka’s DNA was on the inside of Ann’s pants and on all of the buttons of her shirt. This was enough to confirm that Chudomelka was the one responsible for Ann Woodward's murder. He was 36 when he committed the crime. Chudomelka was not known to the victim, but Detective Drexler believes that he may have played a game of poker with Ann when he visited the pub, and may have been angry at her for beating him. He added that it could have also been a crime of opportunity rather than rage as he had a violent history. Detective Drexler praised Dalton's forward-thinking for being the reason why they solved the case. “This case hinged on the hair Dalton pulled in 1973,” Drexler said. “I have no idea how he knew that we would be able to do that today. Dalton made this case very easy for us in that aspect.” Chudomelka passed away in 2002 at the age of 67 without ever paying for his crime, but County Lawyer Stephen Stocks believes that if he was still alive, he would've been found guilty of murder. “I hope today brings some closure to the family,” he said. “I truly believe had this been presented to a jury, Chudomelka would have been found guilty beyond reasonable doubt for the murder of Ann Woodward.” Images: Moab Police Department

Legal

Southern Australia is freezing. How can it be so cold in a warming climate?

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-king-103126">Andrew King</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> People living in southern Australia won’t have failed to notice how cold it is. Frosty nights and chilly days have been the weather for many of us since the start of July. As winter continues, we are left wondering how unusual the cold is and whether we can expect several more months of this. Warmer conditions are in the forecast but winter has a long way to go. Further cold snaps could occur. Cold conditions have been in place across southern Australia for the past few days. Temperatures have fallen below zero overnight in many places. It’s not just the nights that have been cold. Maximum temperatures have also been below or well below average across most of the country. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/604809/original/file-20240704-20-l50kpt.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/604809/original/file-20240704-20-l50kpt.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/604809/original/file-20240704-20-l50kpt.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/604809/original/file-20240704-20-l50kpt.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/604809/original/file-20240704-20-l50kpt.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/604809/original/file-20240704-20-l50kpt.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/604809/original/file-20240704-20-l50kpt.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/604809/original/file-20240704-20-l50kpt.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="" /></a><figcaption>Maximum temperatures have been below average across most of the continent since the last day of June. <a class="source" href="http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp">Bureau of Meteorology</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></figcaption></figure> <h2>What’s causing the cold?</h2> A <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_col.shtml">persistent and strong high-pressure system</a> has been hanging around over southeast Australia. The atmospheric pressure was so high it approached the Australian record of 1,044.3 hPa set on June 7 1967. An <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-04/australias-highest-air-pressure-recorded-weather/104055462">initial observation</a> of a new record has since been disregarded, but nonetheless this is an exceptional, near-record high-pressure pattern. This high-pressure system has kept the weather dry but clear nights have allowed strong cooling of the land surface. The long nights and short days of early July mean that temperatures struggle to rise during the day and can fall quickly in the evenings. In winter we expect cold weather across most of Australia and occasional cold snaps that bring widespread frosty and icy conditions. However, this current cold weather is pretty unusual and we are seeing some records fall. Notably, Tasmania has had its <a href="https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/tasmanias-2ndcoldest-night-on-record/1889603">lowest July temperature on record</a> and the second-lowest minimum temperature for any time of year with –13.5°C at Liawenee in central Tasmania early on Thursday morning. While Tasmania has produced the most remarkable records, the cold conditions have been unusual elsewhere too. Adelaide recorded its lowest temperature in 18 years on Wednesday morning. And many suburbs of Melbourne experienced a sub-zero night and consecutive nights of <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/frost-and-ice/frost">ground frost</a>. <h2>Winters are warming but cold spells still occur</h2> As the world is warming, it might seem surprising we can still break cold records. Indeed, across Australia <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=tmean&area=aus&season=0608&ave_yr=0&ave_period=6190">winters have been warming</a>. The <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/extremes/trendmaps.cgi?map=CN05&period=1950">frequency</a> and <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/extremes/trendmaps.cgi?map=TNmn&period=1950">intensity</a> of very low temperatures have been decreasing over the past few decades. We also see many more hot records than cold records being set in Australia and around the globe. This is <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-hot-weather-records-continue-to-tumble-worldwide-86158">due to human-caused climate change</a>. However, when we have the right weather conditions, cold records are still occasionally broken locally. As we continue to warm the planet, it’s getting harder for us to find cold records, particularly over larger regions or longer time periods. While we still see record cold temperatures at individual weather stations, we won’t see another cold record in the global average temperature and probably not even in the Australian average temperature. As this week shows, we still occasionally get daily cold records in the current climate. But it’s much harder to get record cold months, and record cold years at a given location are almost impossible. As we average weather conditions across locations or over time, the climate change signal becomes clearer over background weather variability. It makes new cold records much less likely to occur. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/605048/original/file-20240704-21-7ep1rt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/605048/original/file-20240704-21-7ep1rt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/605048/original/file-20240704-21-7ep1rt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/605048/original/file-20240704-21-7ep1rt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/605048/original/file-20240704-21-7ep1rt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/605048/original/file-20240704-21-7ep1rt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/605048/original/file-20240704-21-7ep1rt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/605048/original/file-20240704-21-7ep1rt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="A graphic showing the increase in annual average temperature for Australia from 1910 to 2023" /></a><figcaption>The climate change signal is becoming clearer as Australia’s annual average temperature continues to increase with each decade, widening the difference from the long-term mean. <a class="source" href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/#tabs=Temperature">Bureau of Meteorology</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></figcaption></figure> <h2>How much longer will this cold snap last?</h2> Southern Australia is experiencing a cold snap at close to the coldest time of year. It’s not long after the winter solstice, when we experience the longest night of the year. We still have a few more cold days and nights ahead in parts of southeastern Australia. By early next week, the forecast suggests <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml">warmer conditions</a> will return as the high-pressure system moves east and winds turn northerly. The outlook for the rest of winter points firmly to <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/summary">above-average daytime and night-time temperatures</a>. This is partly because a historical average (1981–2018) is used and warming since then means above-average temperatures are going to happen most of the time. In any winter, Australia has cold outbreaks. So, even if the next few months are likely to be warmer than normal, we should expect a few cold days and nights at some point. Learning to live with the cold and improving the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/ng-interactive/2024/jul/03/why-so-many-australian-homes-are-either-too-hot-or-too-cold">quality of insulation in Australian homes</a> would help make our winter cold snaps seem a lot less harsh.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/233977/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-king-103126">Andrew King</a>, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/southern-australia-is-freezing-how-can-it-be-so-cold-in-a-warming-climate-233977">original article</a>. </div>

Domestic Travel

Flight attendant reveals the unexpected reason why it's so cold on planes

When it comes to packing essentials in your carry-on for your next flight, many people add a jumper, extra socks, or even their own blanket to their bags. Because one thing’s for sure: you’ll probably be cold on your flight. But have you ever stopped to think of the reason why the cabin of a plane is so cold? According to a Canadian flight attendant, it's to do with keeping you feeling good. Vanessa Settimi told Reader's Digest that a cooler cabin helps passengers who are prone to fainting or have motion sickness during turbulence. She also clarified that despite what travellers may think, cabin crew don’t have control over the cabin temperature. "Temperature in the cabin is controlled by the pilots. Even though travellers often ask to get the temperature turned up during flights, it is kept on the cooler side." She went on to say that the key to staying warm on your next flight is bringing extra layers. "Now this might just be the flight attendant in me," says Settimi, "but you will never catch me flying as a traveller in sandals and a tank top!" Image credits: Shutterstock

Travel Trouble

Is nuclear the answer to Australia’s climate crisis?

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/reuben-finighan-157147">Reuben Finighan</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> In Australia’s race to net zero emissions, nuclear power has surged back into the news. Opposition leader Peter Dutton <a href="https://ipa.org.au/research/climate-change-and-energy/peter-dutton-address-to-ipa-members-sydney-7-july-2023">argues</a> nuclear is “the only feasible and proven technology” for cutting emissions. Energy Minister Chris Bowen insists Mr Dutton is promoting “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-18/energy-minister-says-nuclear-power-too-expensive/102868218">the most expensive form of energy</a>”. Is nuclear a pragmatic and wise choice blocked by ideologues? Or is Mr Bowen right that promoting nuclear power is about as sensible as <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/radionational-breakfast/-unicorn-and-a-fantasy-energy-minister-slams-nuclear-energy/102866944">chasing “unicorns”</a>? For someone who has not kept up with developments in nuclear energy, its prospects may seem to hinge on safety. Yet by any hard-nosed accounting, the risks from modern nuclear plants are orders of magnitude lower than those of fossil fuels. Deep failures in design and operational incompetence caused the Chernobyl disaster. Nobody died at Three Mile Island or from Fukushima. Meanwhile, a Harvard-led study found <a href="https://seas.harvard.edu/news/2021/02/deaths-fossil-fuel-emissions-higher-previously-thought">more than one in six deaths globally</a> – around 9 million a year – are attributable to polluted air from fossil combustion. Two more mundane factors help to explain why nuclear power has halved as a share of global electricity production since the 1990s. They are time and money. <h2>The might of Wright’s law</h2> There are four arguments against investment in nuclear power: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olkiluoto_Nuclear_Power_Plant">Olkiluoto 3</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flamanville_Nuclear_Power_Plant#Unit_3">Flamanville 3</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_station">Hinkley Point C</a>, and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vogtle_Electric_Generating_Plant">Vogtle</a>. These are the four major latest-generation plants completed or near completion in Finland, the United States, the United Kingdom and France respectively. Cost overruns at these recent plants average over 300%, with more increases to come. The cost of Vogtle, for example, soared from US$14 billion to $34 billion (A$22-53 billion), Flamanville from €3.3 billion to €19 billion (A$5-31 billion), and <a href="https://illuminem.com/illuminemvoices/nuclear-economics-lessons-from-lazard-to-hinkley-point-c">Hinkley Point C</a> from £16 billion to as much as £70 billion (A$30-132 billion), including subsidies. Completion of Vogtle <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/vogtles-troubles-bring-us-nuclear-challenge-into-focus-2023-08-24/">has been delayed</a> by seven years, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/after-18-years-europes-largest-nuclear-reactor-start-regular-output-sunday-2023-04-15/">Olkiluoto</a> by 14 years, and <a href="https://www.nucnet.org/news/decree-sets-startup-deadline-of-2024-4-3-2020">Flamanville</a> by at least 12 years. A fifth case is <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgil_C._Summer_Nuclear_Generating_Station">Virgil C</a>, also in the US, for which US$9 billion (A$14 billion) was spent before cost overruns led the project to be abandoned. All three firms building these five plants – Westinghouse, EDF, and AREVA – went bankrupt or were nationalised. Consumers, companies and taxpayers <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/07/18/hinkley-points-cost-consumers-surges-50bn/">will bear the costs</a> for decades. By contrast, average cost overruns for wind and solar are <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/we.2069">around zero</a>, the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2214629614000942">lowest</a> of all energy infrastructure. <a href="https://ark-invest.com/wrights-law/">Wright’s law</a> states the more a technology is produced, the more its costs decline. Wind and especially solar power and <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline">lithium-ion batteries</a> have all experienced <a href="https://www.irena.org/News/pressreleases/2023/Aug/Renewables-Competitiveness-Accelerates-Despite-Cost-Inflation">astonishing cost declines</a> over the last two decades. For nuclear power, though, Wright’s law has been inverted. The more capacity installed, the more costs have increased. Why? This <a href="https://www.cell.com/joule/pdf/S2542-4351(20)30458-X.pdf">2020 MIT study</a> found that safety improvements accounted for around 30% of nuclear cost increases, but the lion’s share was due to persistent flaws in management, design, and supply chains. In Australia, such costs and delays would ensure that we miss our emissions reduction targets. They would also mean spiralling electricity costs, as the grid waited for generation capacity that did not come. For fossil fuel firms and their political friends, this is the real attraction of nuclear – another decade or two of sales at inflated prices. <h2>Comparing the cost of nuclear and renewables</h2> Nevertheless, nuclear advocates tell us we have no choice: wind and solar power are intermittent power sources, and the cost of making them reliable is too high. But let’s compare the cost of reliably delivering a megawatt hour of electricity to the grid from nuclear versus wind and solar. According to both <a href="https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/download?pid=csiro:EP2022-5511&dsid=DS1">the CSIRO</a> and respected energy market analyst <a href="https://www.lazard.com/media/typdgxmm/lazards-lcoeplus-april-2023.pdf">Lazard Ltd</a>, nuclear power has a cost of A$220 to $350 per megawatt hour produced. Without subsidies or state finance, the four plants cited above generally hit or exceed the high end of this range. By contrast, Australia is already building wind and solar plants at under <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/act-starts-to-bank-its-cheapest-wind-power-yet-in-next-stage-to-kick-out-fossil-fuels/">$45</a> and <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/nsw-gets-stunning-low-price-for-wind-and-solar-in-biggest-renewables-auction/">$35 per megawatt hour</a> respectively. That’s a tenth of the cost of nuclear. The CSIRO has <a href="https://www.csiro.au/-/media/EF/Files/GenCost/GenCost2022-23Final_27-06-2023.pdf">modelled the cost</a> of renewable energy that is firmed – meaning made reliable, mainly via batteries and other storage technologies. It found the necessary transmission lines and storage would add only $25 to $34 per megawatt hour. In short, a reliable megawatt hour from renewables costs around a fifth of one from a nuclear plant. We could build a renewables grid large enough to meet demand twice over, and still pay less than half the cost of nuclear. <h2>The future of nuclear: small modular reactors?</h2> Proponents of nuclear power pin their hopes on <a href="https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/what-are-small-modular-reactors-smrs#:%7E:text=Small%20modular%20reactors%20(SMRs)%20are,of%20traditional%20nuclear%20power%20reactors.">small modular reactors</a> (SMRs), which replace huge gigawatt-scale units with small units that offer the possibility of being produced at scale. This might allow nuclear to finally harness Wright’s law. Yet commercial SMRs are years from deployment. The US firm <a href="https://www.nuscalepower.com/en">NuScale</a>, scheduled to build two plants in Idaho by 2030, has not yet broken ground, and on-paper costs have already <a href="https://ieefa.org/resources/eye-popping-new-cost-estimates-released-nuscale-small-modular-reactor">ballooned</a> to around A$189 per megawatt hour. And SMRs are decades away from broad deployment. If early examples work well, in the 2030s there will be a round of early SMRs in the US and European countries that have existing nuclear skills and supply chains. If that goes well, we may see a serious rollout from the 2040s onwards. In these same decades, solar, wind, and storage will still be descending the Wright’s law cost curve. Last year the Morrison government was spruiking the goal of getting solar below <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ultra-low-cost-solar-power-a-priority-for-australia-20220108-p59msj.html">$15 per megawatt hour by 2030</a>. SMRs must achieve improbable cost reductions to compete. Finally, SMRs may be necessary and competitive in countries with poor renewable energy resources. But Australia has the richest combined solar and wind resources in the world. <h2>Should we lift the ban?</h2> Given these realities, should Australia lift its ban on nuclear power? A repeal would have no practical effect on what happens in electricity markets, but it might have political effects. A future leader might seek short-term advantage by offering enormous subsidies for nuclear plants. The true costs would arrive years after such a leader had left office. That would be tragic for Australia. With our unmatched solar and wind resources, we have the chance to deliver among the cheapest electricity in the developed world. Mr Dutton may be right that the ban on nuclear is unnecessary. But in terms of getting to net zero as quickly and cheaply as possible, Mr Bowen has the relevant argument. To echo one assessment from the UK, nuclear for Australia would be “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-10-30/u-k-risks-looking-economically-insane-with-edf-nuclear-deal">economically insane</a>”.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216891/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/reuben-finighan-157147">Reuben Finighan</a>, PhD candidate at the LSE and Research Fellow at the Superpower Institute, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-nuclear-the-answer-to-australias-climate-crisis-216891">original article</a>. </div>

Domestic Travel

Cold Chisel share major announcement

Cold Chisel have announced a national tour to celebrate their 50th anniversary. The iconic Aussie rock band will visit a number of capital cities for <a href="https://www.coldchisel.com/tour/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Big Five-O tour</a>, which will be a celebration of their biggest hits spanning five decades. The anniversary party will kick off in the NSW city of Armidale on October 5th, paying tribute to the town where they based themselves out of in the early days of their career. In the months after undergoing open heart surgery, Cold Chisel frontman Jimmy Barnes said touring Australia was a number one priority. "The Big Five-0 is a landmark moment," Barnes said. "There have been plenty of times where I never thought I'd live to see this day so I'm going to make the most of it." "I can't wait to celebrate with my mates and with all the fans who have been such a big part of our story. We're gonna smash it!" In addition to the tour, the band will be releasing a Best Of album in August, which is set to be jam packed with all their biggest hits. Check out the dates for The Big Five-O tour below. <ul> <li>October 5 - Petersons Winery, Armidale, NSW (Red Hot Summer tour)</li> <li>October 8 - Gold Coast Convention and Exhibition Centre</li> <li>October 11 - The Entertainment Quarter, Moore Park, Sydney</li> <li>October 15 - WIN Entertainment Centre, Wollongong</li> <li>October 19 - Sandalford Wines, Swan Valley, WA (Red Hot Summer Tour)</li> <li>October 25 - Flemington Racecourse, Melbourne</li> <li>November 2 - Victoria Park, Brisbane</li> <li>November 6 - Newcastle Entertainment Centre</li> <li>November 9 - Victoria Park, Ballarat (Red Hot Summer tour)</li> <li>November 13 - MyState Bank Arena, Hobart</li> <li>November 17 - VAILO Adelaide 500, Post Race Concert, Adelaide</li> </ul> Fan Presale will begin from 12pm on Friday May 31st, while General Public tickets will go on sale from 12pm on June 4th. Image credits: SplashNews.com/Shutterstock Editorial

Domestic Travel

Why a cold beer is best – chemically speaking

A quiet moment in a bar has led two researchers to study how alcohol tastes at different temperatures. No, this is real science. <div class="copy"> “Two years ago, Xiaotao Yang and I were drinking beer together. He had just finished his doctorate degree thesis and asked me, ‘what should we do next?’” says Lei Jiang, lead author of a new study <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matt.2024.03.017" target="_blank" rel="noopener">published</a> in the materials science journal Matter. Yang and Jiang are material scientists at the Chinese Academy of Sciences. “At the time, I was a scientific committee member of one of the biggest Chinese alcoholic beverage companies, and I had the idea to ask the question ‘why does Chinese baijiu have a very particular concentration of alcohol, either 38%–42%, 52%–53%, or 68%–75%?’” Baijiu is a clear grain liquor from East Asia. It’s typically distilled from fermented sorghum (a type of grass), though it is also sometimes made from rice, wheat, barley or millet. “Then we decided, let’s try something, so I put a drop of beer on my hand to see the contact angle,” says Jiang. Contact angle is a measure of surface tension. For example, water has a low contact angle which is why it appears bead-like when placed on a surface. Solutions with high <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/health/body-and-mind/debunks-vices-alcohol/">alcohol</a> concentration, however, have a higher contact angle meaning they flatten and spread out. Contact angle also reveals how molecules within the droplet interact with each other and the surface below. After plotting the concentration of ethanol (alcohol) against contact angle, the scientists were surprised with what they found. There is no linear relationship between alcohol concentration and contact angle. Instead, increasing the amount of alcohol leads to a series of plateaus and sharp rises in the plot. Further experiments showed that this arises out of the formation of clusters of ethanol and water in the solutions. At low concentrations, ethanol forms pyramid-like structures around the water molecules. At high concentrations, the ethanol molecules arrange end-to-end in a chain. They also found that these structures change depending on temperature. For example, 38%–42% and 52%–53% ethanol solutions have distinct cluster structures at around room temperature, but this difference disappears at higher temperatures, like 40°C. “Although there is only 1% difference, the taste of baijiu at 51% and 52% is noticeably different; the taste of baijiu at 51% is similar to that of lower alcohol content, such as 38%–42%. So, in order to achieve the same taste at a lower alcohol content, the distribution of baijiu products ranges most within the 38%–42% and 52%–53% categories,” says Jiang. The researchers also found that there is an increase in ethanol chains at 5°C in 5% and 11% ethanol solutions – the concentration range of beer – giving it a more “ethanol-like” taste which is generally preferred. “At low temperature, the tetrahedral (pyramid-shaped) clusters become the low concentration amount, and this is why we drink cold beer,” says Jiang. The researchers say their research could help beverage companies produce the best flavour with the lowest alcohol concentration. Image credits: Shutterstock <div> <noscript data-spai="1"><img decoding="async" fetchpriority="high" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-198773" src="https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossy+ret_img+to_auto/cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Cosmos-Catch-Up-embed_728x150-1.jpg" data-spai-egr="1" alt="Sign up to our weekly newsletter" width="600" height="154" title="why a cold beer is best – chemically speaking 2"></noscript> </div>  <img id="cosmos-post-tracker" style="opacity: 0; height: 1px!important; width: 1px!important; border: 0!important; position: absolute!important; z-index: -1!important;" src="https://syndication.cosmosmagazine.com/?id=303282&title=Why+a+cold+beer+is+best+%E2%80%93+chemically+speaking" width="1" height="1" loading="lazy" aria-label="Syndication Tracker" data-spai-target="src" data-spai-orig="" data-spai-exclude="nocdn" /> </div> <div id="contributors"> <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/science/chemistry/beer-taste-temperature/">This article</a> was originally published on <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com">Cosmos Magazine</a> and was written by <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/contributor/evrim-yazgin/">Evrim Yazgin</a>. </div>

Food & Wine

Are some routes more prone to air turbulence? Will climate change make it worse? Your questions answered

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/doug-drury-1277871">Doug Drury</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/cquniversity-australia-2140">CQUniversity Australia</a> A little bit of turbulence is a common experience for air travellers. Severe incidents are rare – but when they occur they can be deadly. The recent Singapore Airlines flight SQ321 from London to Singapore shows the danger. An <a href="https://apnews.com/article/singapore-airlines-flight-turbulence-5a9a268e1a6a6fb9ece7e58b5ea9231b">encounter with extreme turbulence</a> during normal flight left one person dead from a presumed heart attack and several others badly injured. The flight diverted to land in Bangkok so the severely injured passengers could receive hospital treatment. Air turbulence can happen anywhere, but is far more common on some routes than on others. Climate change is expected to boost the chances of air turbulence, and make it more intense. In fact, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1465-z">some research</a> indicates turbulence <a href="https://theconversation.com/aviation-turbulence-soared-by-up-to-55-as-the-world-warmed-new-research-207574">has already worsened</a> over the past few decades. <h2>Where does turbulence happen?</h2> Nearly every flight experiences turbulence in one form or another. If an aircraft is taking off or landing behind another aircraft, the wind generated by the engine and <a href="https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/atpubs/aim_html/chap7_section_4.html">wingtips</a> of the lead aircraft can cause “wake turbulence” for the one behind. Close to ground level, there may be turbulence due to strong winds associated with weather patterns moving through the area near an airport. At higher altitudes, there may be wake turbulence again (if flying close to another aircraft), or turbulence due to updraughts or downdraughts from a thunderstorm. Another kind of turbulence that occurs at higher altitudes is harder to predict or avoid. So-called “<a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023gl103814">clear-air turbulence</a>” is invisible, as the name suggests. It is often caused by warmer air rising into cooler air, and is generally expected to get worse due to climate change. At the most basic level turbulence is the result of two or more wind events colliding and creating eddies, or swirls of <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/travel/article/what-is-turbulence-explained">disrupted airflow</a>. It often occurs near mountain ranges, as wind flowing over the terrain accelerates upward. Turbulence also often occurs at the edges of the <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/travel/article/what-is-turbulence-explained">jet streams</a>. These are narrow bands of strong, high-altitude winds circling the globe. Aircraft often travel in the jet streams to get a speed boost – but when entering or leaving the jet stream, there may be some turbulence as it crosses the boundary with the slower winds outside. <h2>What are the most turbulent routes?</h2> It is possible to <a href="https://turbli.com/maps/world-turbulence-map/">map turbulence patterns</a> over the whole world. Airlines use these maps to plan in advance for alternate airports or other essential contingencies. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/595676/original/file-20240522-21-ippmyt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/595676/original/file-20240522-21-ippmyt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/595676/original/file-20240522-21-ippmyt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/595676/original/file-20240522-21-ippmyt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/595676/original/file-20240522-21-ippmyt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/595676/original/file-20240522-21-ippmyt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/595676/original/file-20240522-21-ippmyt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/595676/original/file-20240522-21-ippmyt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Map showing air turbulence." /></a><figcaption>A map of estimated clear-air turbulence around the world, current as of 3:00PM AEST (0500 UTC) on May 22 2024. <a class="source" href="https://turbli.com/maps/world-turbulence-map/">Turbli</a></figcaption></figure> While turbulence changes with weather conditions, some regions and routes are more prone to it than others. As you can see from the list below, the majority of the most turbulent routes travel close to mountains. <iframe id="EktuH" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/EktuH/2/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe> In Australia, the <a href="https://turbli.com/historical-data/most-turbulent-flight-routes-of-2023/">highest average turbulence in 2023</a> occurred on the Brisbane to Sydney route, followed by Melbourne to Sydney and Brisbane to Melbourne. <h2>Climate change may increase turbulence</h2> How will climate change affect the future of aviation? A <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL103814">study published last year</a> found evidence of large increases in clear-air turbulence between 1979 and 2020. In some locations severe turbulence increased by as much as 55%. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/595683/original/file-20240522-17-p2zdrt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/595683/original/file-20240522-17-p2zdrt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/595683/original/file-20240522-17-p2zdrt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=253&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/595683/original/file-20240522-17-p2zdrt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=253&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/595683/original/file-20240522-17-p2zdrt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=253&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/595683/original/file-20240522-17-p2zdrt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/595683/original/file-20240522-17-p2zdrt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/595683/original/file-20240522-17-p2zdrt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="A map of the world with different areas shaded in red." /></a><figcaption>A map showing changes in the chance of clear-air turbulence across the globe between 1979 and 2020. Darker red indicates a higher chance of turbulence. <a class="source" href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL103814">Prosser et al. (2023), Geophysical Research Letters</a></figcaption></figure> In 2017, a <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL074618">different study used climate modelling</a> to project that clear-air turbulence may be four times as common as it used to be by 2050, under some climate change scenarios. <h2>What can be done about turbulence?</h2> What can be done to mitigate turbulence? <a href="https://safetyfirst.airbus.com/optimum-use-of-weather-radar/">Technology to detect turbulence</a> is still in the research and development phase, so pilots use the knowledge they have from weather radar to determine the best plan to avoid weather patterns with high levels of moisture directly ahead of their flight path. Weather radar imagery shows the pilots where the most intense turbulence can be expected, and they work with air traffic control to avoid those areas. When turbulence is encountered unexpectedly, the pilots immediately turn on the “fasten seatbelt” sign and reduce engine thrust to slow down the plane. They will also be in touch with air traffic control to find better conditions either by climbing or descending to smoother air. Ground-based meteorological centres can see weather patterns developing with the assistance of satellites. They provide this information to flight crews in real time, so the crew knows the weather to expect throughout their flight. This can also include areas of expected turbulence if storms develop along the intended flight route. It seems we are heading into more turbulent times. Airlines will do all they can to reduce the impact on planes and passengers. But for the average traveller, the message is simple: when they tell you to fasten your seatbelt, you should listen.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/230666/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/doug-drury-1277871">Doug Drury</a>, Professor/Head of Aviation, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/cquniversity-australia-2140">CQUniversity Australia</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-some-routes-more-prone-to-air-turbulence-will-climate-change-make-it-worse-your-questions-answered-230666">original article</a>. </div>

Travel Trouble

Dog care below freezing − how to keep your pet warm and safe from cold weather, road salt and more this winter

<div class="theconversation-article-body"> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/erik-christian-olstad-1505284">Erik Christian Olstad</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-california-davis-1312">University of California, Davis</a> Time outside with your dog in the spring, summer and fall can be lovely. Visiting your favorite downtown café on a cool spring morning, going to a favorite dog park on a clear summer evening or going on walks along a river when the leaves are changing color are all wonderful when the weather is favorable. But in much of the country, when winter rolls around, previously hospitable conditions can <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-winter-miserable-for-wildlife-108734">quickly turn chilly and dangerous</a> for people and pups alike. Winter brings some unique challenges for dog owners, since dogs still need activity and socialization during colder seasons. Studies have shown that dog owners are almost 50% less likely to walk their dogs <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/ani11113302">when the weather gets cold</a>. Knowing the basics of winter safety is critical to maintaining a healthy lifestyle for your dog. I am an <a href="https://www.vetmed.ucdavis.edu/faculty/erik-olstad">assistant professor</a> at the University of California Davis School of Veterinary Medicine who weathered polar vortexes with my dog while living in Michigan early in my career. While I’ve since moved to sunny California, I’ve seen how quickly frigid temperatures can turn dangerous for pets. <h2>Breed and age differences</h2> Not all dogs have the same abilities to deal with cold weather. A short-coated dog like a Chihuahua is much more susceptible to the dangers of cold weather than a thick-coated husky. When the weather dips below 40 degrees Fahrenheit (4 degrees Celsius), the well-acclimated husky may be comfortable, whereas the Chihuahua would shiver and be at risk of hypothermia. Additionally, if your dog is used to warm weather, but you decide to move to a colder region, the dog will need time to acclimate to that colder weather, even if they have a thick coat. Age also affects cold-weather resilience. Puppies and elderly dogs can’t withstand the chill as well as other dogs, but every dog is unique – each may have individual health conditions or physical attributes that make them more or less resilient to cold weather. <h2>When is my dog too cold?</h2> Pet owners should be able to recognize the symptoms of a dog that is getting too cold. Dogs will shiver, and some may vocalize or whine. Dogs may resist putting their feet down on the cold ground, or burrow, or try to find warmth in their environment when they are uncomfortable. Just like people, <a href="https://vcahospitals.com/know-your-pet/frostbite-in-dogs">dogs can get frostbite</a>. And just like people, the signs can take days to appear, making it hard to assess them in the moment. The most common sites for frostbite in dogs are their ears and the tips of their tails. Some of the initial signs of frostbite are skin discoloring, turning paler than normal, or purple, gray or even black; red, blistered skin; swelling; pain at the site; <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/ulcer">or ulceration</a>. Other <a href="https://vcahospitals.com/know-your-pet/frostbite-in-dogs">serious signs of hypothermia</a> include sluggishness or lethargy, and if you observe them, please visit your veterinarian immediately. A good rule to live by is if it is too cold for you, it is too cold for your dog. Getting your dog a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/cnn-underscored/pets/best-winter-dog-coats-jackets">sweater or jacket</a> and <a href="https://www.akc.org/expert-advice/vets-corner/protect-dogs-paws-snow-ice-salt/">paw covers</a> can provide them with protection from the elements and keep them comfortable. Veterinarians also recommend closely monitoring your dog and limiting their time outside when the temperature nears the freezing point or drops below it. <h2>Road salt dangers</h2> Road salt that treats ice on streets and sidewalks <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/ice-salt-toxic-for-pets-1.5020088">can also harm dogs</a>. When dogs walk on the salt, the sharp, rough edges of the salt crystals can irritate the sensitive skin on their paws. Dogs will often lick their feet when they’re dirty, wet or irritated, and if they ingest any salt doing that, they may face GI upset, dehydration, kidney failure, seizures or even death. Even small amounts of pure salt can <a href="https://www.petpoisonhelpline.com/pet-tips/my-dog-ate-road-salt-will-they-be-okay/">disrupt critical body functions</a> in dogs. Some companies make pet-safe salt, but in public it can be hard to tell what type of salt is on the ground. After walking your dog, wash off their feet or boots. You can also keep their paw fur trimmed to prevent snow from balling up or salt collecting in the fur. Applying a thin layer of petroleum jelly or <a href="https://www.akc.org/expert-advice/lifestyle/how-to-make-your-own-paw-balm-for-winter/">paw pad balm</a> to the skin of the paw pads can also help protect your pet’s paws from irritation. <h2>Antifreeze risks</h2> <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/antifreeze-chemical-substance">Antifreeze, or ethylene glycol</a>, is in most vehicles to prevent the fluids from freezing when it gets cold out. Some people pour antifreeze into their toilets when away from their home to prevent the water in the toilet from freezing. Antifreeze is an exceptionally dangerous chemical to dogs and cats, as it tastes sweet but can be deadly when ingested. If a pet ingests even a small amount of antifreeze, the substance causes a chemical cascade in their body that results in severe kidney damage. If left untreated, the pet may have <a href="https://www.petpoisonhelpline.com/pet-owner-blog/antifreeze-poisoning/">permanent kidney damage or die</a>. There are safer antifreeze options on the market that use ingredients other than ethylene glycol. If your dog ingests antifreeze, please see your veterinarian immediately for treatment. When temperatures dip below freezing, the best thing pet owners can do is keep the time spent outside as minimal as possible. Try some <a href="https://www.akc.org/expert-advice/lifestyle/great-indoor-games-to-play-with-your-dog/">indoor activities</a>, like hide-and-seek with low-calorie treats, fetch or even an interactive obstacle course. Food puzzles can also keep your dog mentally engaged during indoor time. Although winter presents some unique challenges, it can still be an enjoyable and healthy time for you and your canine companion.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221709/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/erik-christian-olstad-1505284">Erik Christian Olstad</a>, Health Sciences Assistant Professor of Clinical Veterinary Medicine, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-california-davis-1312">University of California, Davis</a> Image credits: Getty Images This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/dog-care-below-freezing-how-to-keep-your-pet-warm-and-safe-from-cold-weather-road-salt-and-more-this-winter-221709">original article</a>. </div>

Family & Pets

Huge reward to help solve cold case of missing mum

Police are offering a $500,000 reward for information to help solve a cold case that suspect was a murder. Tammy Lisa Dyson, also known as Tamela Menzies, was 23 when went missing from the Currumbin area in 1995. The mother of two was picked up from a drug rehab clinic by a woman claiming to be her sister on July 20, 1995 and has not been seen since. Dyson was born and raised in Victoria before moving to Brisbane in 1988, where she worked in the adult entertainment industry under the nickname "Pebbles". Police believe she began mixing with criminals and using drugs while working in strip clubs on the Gold Coast. In early 1995 Dyson arranged for her young sons, Jyles and Rainey, to stay with their grandmother in Victoria temporarily. A few months later she made a distressed call to her sister Olivia, who said she had been assaulted. Olivia and her partner then dropped Dyson off to a drug rehabilitation centre at Currumbin on the Gold Coast, and on July 20, 1995 she was picked up by someone claiming to be her sister. The following day, Tammy completed a statutory declaration signed by a Justice of the Peace in Tweed Heads, giving custody of her children and her possessions to her mother. She also called her sister one last time, with Olivia recalling that Tammy "didn't sound like herself" and she had mentioned underworld figures. Police have received a number of reported sightings of Tammy since 1995 but all proof of life inquiries have been proven negative. In 2012, the Queensland coroner said that they believed Tammy was deceased and indicated that she may have been a victim of violence, although a certain date, time and cause of death have not been determined. Police are now offering the huge reward for new information and immunity from prosecution for any accomplice who comes forward. "Tammy associated with criminals that were known to police and vanished without a trace after giving custody of her children and possessions to her mother; we believe the circumstances of her disappearance is suspicious," Detective Senior Sergeant Tara Kentwell said. On Wednesday, her sons, who were only three and one when their mother disappeared, made an emotional appeal for public help to find her. "Growing up without mum and not knowing what happened to her has been very hard," Jyles Lebler said through tears during a media conference. "Whoever has picked her up, I'm not saying they have done something but they must know something bad has happened." "We hope we find out what to mum to give grandma some closure before it's too late," Rainey added. Images: Queensland Police

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