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Is it possible to have a fair jury trial anymore?

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/arlie-loughnan-12732">Arlie Loughnan</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841">University of Sydney</a></em></p> <p>The decades-long mystery about what happened to 19-year-old Amber Haigh made it to court in New South Wales earlier this year. Those accused of murdering Haigh were found <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/sep/16/amber-haigh-murder-trial-verdict-not-guilty-robert-anne-geeves-ntwnfb">not guilty</a>.</p> <p>Usually we don’t know precisely why someone was found guilty or not. But in this case, the reasons were given.</p> <p>This is because the trial was “<a href="https://www.judcom.nsw.gov.au/publications/benchbks/criminal/judge_alone_trials.html">judge alone</a>”: a trial without a jury. This means the judge decides on the factual questions as well as the legal ones. And as judges are required to give reasons for their decisions, we learned what was behind the verdict, something usually hidden by the “<a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/SydLRev/2013/32.pdf">black box</a>” of the jury room.</p> <p>Judge alone trials are <a href="https://bocsar.nsw.gov.au/research-evaluations/2024/CJB264-Summary-Effect-of-judge-alone-trials1.html">increasing</a> in New South Wales. Moves are being made in some <a href="https://www5.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/PrecedentAULA/2020/69.html">other Australian jurisdictions</a> to increase access to judge alone trials.</p> <p>While it’s only possible to hold a judge alone trial in certain circumstances, and there are small numbers of such trials relative to other trials, some lawyers and judges think these trials have <a href="https://bocsar.nsw.gov.au/documents/publications/cjb/cjb251-300/CJB264-Report-Effect-of-judge-alone-trials.pdf">advantages</a> over those with a jury.</p> <p>This is because jury trials face a lot of challenges. Some have pondered whether, in this media-saturated environment, there is such a thing as a fair jury trial. So what are these challenges, and where do they leave the time-honoured process?</p> <h2>What happens in a jury trial?</h2> <p>The criminal trial brings together knowledge of the facts that underpin the criminal charge. The task of the jury is to independently assess that knowledge as presented in the trial, and reach a conclusion about guilt to the criminal standard of proof: <a href="https://www.judcom.nsw.gov.au/publications/benchbks/criminal/onus_and_standard_of_proof.html">beyond reasonable doubt</a>.</p> <p>Crucially, lay people provide legitimacy to this process, as individuals drawn from all walks of life are engaged in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/jury-is-out-why-shifting-to-judge-alone-trials-is-a-flawed-approach-to-criminal-justice-137397">decision-making</a> around the guilt of the accused.</p> <p>The jury is therefore a fundamental part of our <a href="https://theconversation.com/all-about-juries-why-do-we-actually-need-them-and-can-they-get-it-wrong-112703">democracy</a>.</p> <h2>The changing trial</h2> <p>For its legitimacy, the criminal trial traditionally relies on open justice, independent prosecutors and the lay jury (the “black box”), all overseen by the impartial umpire, the judge, and backed up by the appeal system.</p> <p>But these aspects of the criminal trial are being challenged by changes occurring inside and outside the courtroom.</p> <p>These challenges include high levels of <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-punitive-media-intrude-on-the-courts-role-can-justice-be-served-63824">media attention</a> given to criminal justice matters.</p> <p>Another is the questioning about the way <a href="https://theconversation.com/lehrmann-inquiry-whats-a-director-of-public-prosecutions-or-dpp-a-legal-expert-explains-206194">public prosecutors are using their discretion</a> in bringing charges against individuals. This is happening in NSW, ACT and Victoria.</p> <p>There are also concerns about “<a href="https://theconversation.com/junk-science-is-being-used-in-australian-courtrooms-and-wrongful-convictions-are-at-stake-231480">junk science</a>” being relied on Australian courtrooms. This is where unreliable or inaccurate expert evidence is introduced in trials.</p> <p>Some legal bodies are also demanding a <a href="https://lawcouncil.au/publicassets/0e6c7bd7-e1d6-e611-80d2-005056be66b1/120421-Policy-Statement-Commonwealth-Criminal-Cases-Review-Comission.pdf">post-appeal criminal cases review commission</a> to prevent wrongful convictions.</p> <h2>Added complexity</h2> <p>It is not just juries that must come to grips with complex evidence in criminal matters. Judges and lawyers are also required to grasp intricate scientific evidence, understand new areas of expertise, and get across changing practices of validating expert knowledge.</p> <p>The difficulty of these tasks for judges and lawyers was on show in the two special inquiries into Kathleen Folbigg’s convictions for the murder of her children, held in 2019 and 2022–23. Rapid developments in genetic science, alongside other developments, came to <a href="https://theconversation.com/folbigg-pardon-science-is-changing-rapidly-and-the-law-needs-to-change-with-it-207604">cast doubt</a> on the accuracy of Folbigg’s convictions. This was just a few years after the first inquiry concluded there was no reasonable doubt about her guilt.</p> <p>The challenges facing criminal trials are one dimension of much wider social and political dynamics. News and information is produced and consumed differently now. People have <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-so-many-people-have-had-enough-of-experts-and-how-to-win-back-trust-206134">differing degrees</a> of respect for scientific knowledge and expertise. Trust in authority and institutions <a href="https://theconversation.com/5-charts-show-how-trust-in-australias-leaders-and-institutions-has-collapsed-183441">is low</a>.</p> <p>These factors come together in a perfect storm and pose existential questions about what criminal justice should look like now.</p> <h2>What does the future look like?</h2> <p>The future of criminal law and its institutions depends on their <a href="https://ses.library.usyd.edu.au/handle/2123/32995">legitimacy</a>. It’s legitimacy that gives courts the social license and power to proscribe conduct, prosecute crimes and authorise punishment. Juries are a vital piece of this picture.</p> <p>Amid the changing environment, there are things we can do to improve jury trials and in turn, safeguard and enhance their legitimacy.</p> <p>One is providing extremely careful instructions to juries to make sure jurors <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-need-better-jury-directions-to-ensure-justice-is-done-104417">understand their tasks</a>, and do not feel <a href="https://lawfoundation.net.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/UNSW_Jury_Study_Hunter_2013.pdf">frustrated</a>.</p> <p>Another is introducing <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/343032083_Regulating_Forensic_Science_and_Medicine_Evidence_at_Trial_It's_Time_for_a_Wall_a_Gate_and_Some_Gatekeeping">higher and better standards</a> for expert evidence. Experts testifying in court need firm guidance, especially on their use of <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-words-that-helped-wrongly-convict-kathleen-folbigg-200635">industry jargon</a>, to decrease chances of wrongful convictions.</p> <p>These sorts of changes might be coupled with changes in criminal laws, like enhancing laws of self-defence so they are <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5aa98420f2e6b1ba0c874e42/t/64a58aac48b25f2af05ac74f/1688570542199/CWJ+Arlie+Loughnan+and+Clare+Davidson+Australia.pdf">more accessible to women</a> in domestic violence situations.</p> <p>Together, this would help to future-proof criminal law, ready to meet the challenges of coming years and decades that we are yet to detect.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/239401/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/arlie-loughnan-12732">Arlie Loughnan</a>, Professor of Criminal Law, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841">University of Sydney</a></em></p> <p><em>Image credits: Shutterstock </em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-it-possible-to-have-a-fair-jury-trial-anymore-239401">original article</a>.</em></p> </div>

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Aussie mum stunned by $1,700 jury duty fine

<p>A Sydney mum is searching for answers after being hit by a $1,715 fine for missing jury duty that she knew nothing about. </p> <p>The mum shared that she had just returned from an overseas  holiday to find the "hefty" fine, which said she needed pay the overdue penalty by October 9 for failing to attend jury duty for a court case in May, but she claims she had never been summoned. </p> <p>“I didn’t get this by the due date of October 9. However, I have also never seen the jury notice for May 28 nor any other notices since. So I’m in total and absolute shock,” she posted on social media. </p> <p>She asked other local mums for advice on getting the fine "ditched", explaining that she hasn't changed her address in decades and checks her mail every day. </p> <p>“The only mail I’ve received on the matter at all is this fine enforcement notice on return from overseas. It’s very strange. How can I prove I never received the original notice?”</p> <p>It turns out that the Aussie mum is not the only one who has encountered this, as several other Sydneysiders have been slapped with fines for missing jury duty. </p> <p>One woman claimed she had no idea she had a $1,000 fine for missing jury duty until she went onto Service NSW to pay a separate bill. </p> <p>“I had never received or seen a notice regarding jury duty or the associated fine,” she said. </p> <p>Others urged her to contact Service NSW and explain the error. </p> <p>“This happened to me a couple of months ago. You just call them and explain what happened. They are very understanding,” one woman said.</p> <p>“This happened to me in the past. I wasn’t travelling and have been in the same address, just simply didn’t receive the notice to serve jury duty. So I just wrote to them to explain my reason of not attending. They waived my fine,” another noted. </p> <p>According to the state’s Department of Communities and Justice you can have the fine reviewed if you: </p> <ul> <li>did attend jury service, or</li> <li>did not receive previous notices from the NSW Sheriff’s Office</li> <li>had a legitimate reason for not attending jury service</li> </ul> <p><em>Images: Facebook/ </em><em>B-E / Shutterstock.com</em></p>

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Distressing twist in sudden death of former MAFS groom

<p>Just days after the shocking death of former <em>Married At First Sight NZ</em> contestant Andrew Jury, shocking new details have emerged about his final weeks before his <a href="https://oversixty.com.au/health/caring/married-at-first-sight-groom-dies-at-just-33" target="_blank" rel="noopener">passing</a>. </p> <p>The 33-year-old Auckland-based builder passed away in recent weeks, as his untimely death was announced by two of his former <em>MAFS</em> contestants on Sunday.</p> <p>Now, Jury's father Roy confirmed to the <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/married-at-first-sight-nz-groom-andrew-jury-dies/47OQFBCORZHARPILFOEA65N7SE/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><em>New Zealand Herald</em></a> that his son was on remand in Mt Eden Corrections Facility prison at the time of his death. </p> <p>Andrew had been just hours from a scheduled court appearance, where he was facing charges that included “assault with intent to injure, wilful damage and possession of an offensive weapon.”</p> <p>His father also told the publication that he’d been worried about his son’s mental state ahead of his court hearing, adding that his family were “bewildered” and “deeply saddened” by the tragic turn of events.</p> <p>Roy said that his son had been arrested on April 2nd and had told his relatives he was “struggling” in prison.</p> <p>“It should have been a red flag when Andy stopped communicating with family and friends,” he told the outlet.</p> <p>Andrew's death was announced by former <em>MAFS NZ</em> stars Brett and Angel Renall, and Benjamin Blackwell who wrote a joint statement to the <em>New Zealand Herald</em> to break the news of his passing. </p> <p>“It’s with the heaviest hearts we’ve come together to acknowledge the passing of Andrew Jury,” they said. “We had the absolute pleasure of filming and participating in a show which leaves us intricately linked for a lifetime."</p> <p>“Despite his struggles, Andrew was always friendly and the life of the party during our shared experience, and he really valued his time on the show."</p> <p>“At this time, our entire cast wishes to send our deepest condolences and love to his family.”</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1rem;"><em>Image credits: Instagram </em></p>

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Married at First Sight groom dies at just 33

<p>Former <em>Married At First Sight NZ</em> contestant Andrew Jury has died at the age of 33. </p> <p>The Auckland-based builder passed away in recent weeks, as his untimely death was announced by two of his former <em>MAFS</em> contestants. </p> <p>“It’s with the heaviest hearts we’ve come together to acknowledge the passing of Andrew Jury,” former <em>MAFS NZ</em> stars Brett and Angel Renall, and Benjamin Blackwell wrote in a joint statement, according to the <em><a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/married-at-first-sight-nz-groom-andrew-jury-dies/47OQFBCORZHARPILFOEA65N7SE/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">New Zealand Herald</a>.</em></p> <p>“We had the absolute pleasure of filming and participating in a show which leaves us intricately linked for a lifetime."</p> <p>“Despite his struggles, Andrew was always friendly and the life of the party during our shared experience, and he really valued his time on the show."</p> <p>“At this time, our entire cast wishes to send our deepest condolences and love to his family.”</p> <p>On Sunday, Warner Bros Discovery, broadcaster of <em>MAFS NZ</em>, released a statement about the death.</p> <p>“WBD takes duty of care extremely seriously and has protocols in place regarding the wellbeing of cast and crew,” a spokesperson of the company said.</p> <p>"All <em>MAFS NZ</em> contributors have access to mental health professionals throughout the process, including pre-screening, during production and after broadcast."</p> <p>Jury appeared on the first season of <em>Married At First Sight NZ</em>, which aired in 2017. </p> <p>During his time on the show, he was matched with Vicky Gleeson-Stokes, but the pair were not a perfect fit and did not make it to final vows.</p> <p>Following his appearance on the show, Jury was heavily critical of the TV programme and urged others not to audition. </p> <p>The final straw for the builder, who was 26 at the time, was when local sex worker Lisa Lewis announced she had been short-listed to appear in the season after Jury’s.</p> <p>“It’s unethical how they’re going about these things,” he told the <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/married-at-first-sight-star-andrew-jury-bags-show-and-warns-other-kiwis-from-applying-after-lisa-lewis-announcement/QULDBF6S4SHDOEOBUSZIPY3FXU/#:~:text=%22It's%20unethical%20how%20they're,%22experts%22%20to%20match%20couples." target="_blank" rel="noopener"><em>New Zealand Herald</em> </a>at the time. “You can’t get an escort on this show. You can’t do that to a guy.”</p> <p>The former contestant said he and his fellow participants were hopeful in finding love when going on the show, but he believed it was all a stitch-up from day one.</p> <p>“They [the contestants] are the most amazing people on the show, they put their hearts on the line and they all got burned,” he continued.</p> <p>“I make great TV, but my wife and me were not matched in the slightest. She’s a princess, I’m a bogan. How can they say it’s a legit process when you get the complete opposite of what you want?”</p> <p><em>Image credits: Instagram </em></p>

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Jury decides fate of accused murderer Justin Stein

<p>The jury has handed down their verdict to Justin Stein after a lengthy trial into the murder of schoolgirl Charlise Mutten. </p> <p>Stein, Mutten's stepfather, was found guilty of murdering the nine-year-old and disposing of her body in barrel in the Blue Mountains. </p> <p>Charlise's body was found near the Colo River, northwest of Sydney on January 18th 2022, with gunshot wounds to her face and lower back.</p> <p>The jury deliberated for almost two weeks before delivering its verdict on Wednesday morning, following a four-week trial.</p> <p>Throughout the trial, Stein admitted to disposing of Charlise's body after her death in January 2022, but maintained that the young girl's mother, Kallista Mutten, had been the one to murder the child. </p> <p>Kallista denied having any involvement in her daughter's death and broke down in tears when faced with the accusation in court.</p> <p>As she dismissed the jurors, Justice Helen Wilson thanked them for their service.</p> <p>She said "quite a lot of people" had told her at the beginning of the proceedings that they did not feel they could listen to evidence about the death of a child.</p> <div data-component="EmphasisedText"> <p>"It's not an easy thing to hear evidence about something as distressing as the violent death of, particularly, a child," she said.</p> </div> <p>"That's upsetting, I think, for most people. It's also difficult to sit in judgement on a fellow member of the community."</p> <p>"In being willing to do both those things, you've played a very important role in our criminal justice system."</p> <p>Stein will now face a sentence hearing on August 23rd, where is he faced with life in prison for the murder charge. </p> <p><em>Image credits: 9News / NSW Police</em></p>

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Line of Duty star's cause of death revealed

<p>The sister of <em>Line of Duty</em> star Brian McCardie has thanked loved ones and fans for their support since the tragic passing of her brother, while also revealing what caused his sudden death at the age of 59. </p> <p>Sarah McCardie shared a lengthy post on social media thanking people for their "overwhelming support" during the difficult time, adding that the Scottish actor will be laid to rest in a funeral on May 23rd at a church in his home country.</p> <p>She also revealed that Brian died due to an aortic dissection, a tear in the aorta.</p> <p>"The McCardie family would like to thank everyone for their overwhelming support regarding the sudden passing of Brian James McCardie - beloved son, brother, uncle &amp; friend," she wrote.</p> <p>"Brian died due to an aortic dissection, causing short pain and a sudden death."</p> <blockquote class="instagram-media" style="background: #FFF; border: 0; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: 0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width: 540px; min-width: 326px; padding: 0; width: calc(100% - 2px);" data-instgrm-permalink="https://www.instagram.com/p/C7AAl3vLkfz/?utm_source=ig_embed&amp;utm_campaign=loading" data-instgrm-version="14"> <div style="padding: 16px;"> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; align-items: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 40px; margin-right: 14px; width: 40px;"> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 100px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 60px;"> </div> </div> </div> <div style="padding: 19% 0;"> </div> <div style="display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0 auto 12px; width: 50px;"> </div> <div style="padding-top: 8px;"> <div style="color: #3897f0; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 550; line-height: 18px;">View this post on Instagram</div> </div> <div style="padding: 12.5% 0;"> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; margin-bottom: 14px; align-items: center;"> <div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(0px) translateY(7px);"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; height: 12.5px; transform: rotate(-45deg) translateX(3px) translateY(1px); width: 12.5px; flex-grow: 0; margin-right: 14px; margin-left: 2px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(9px) translateY(-18px);"> </div> </div> <div style="margin-left: 8px;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 20px; width: 20px;"> </div> <div style="width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 2px solid transparent; border-left: 6px solid #f4f4f4; border-bottom: 2px solid transparent; transform: translateX(16px) translateY(-4px) rotate(30deg);"> </div> </div> <div style="margin-left: auto;"> <div style="width: 0px; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-right: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(16px);"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; flex-grow: 0; height: 12px; width: 16px; transform: translateY(-4px);"> </div> <div style="width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-left: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(-4px) translateX(8px);"> </div> </div> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 24px;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 224px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 144px;"> </div> </div> <p style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 8px; overflow: hidden; padding: 8px 0 7px; text-align: center; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;"><a style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.instagram.com/p/C7AAl3vLkfz/?utm_source=ig_embed&amp;utm_campaign=loading" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A post shared by Sarah McCardie (@sarahmccardie)</a></p> </div> </blockquote> <p>"There will be a funeral mass held on Thursday 23rd May... where we will celebrate Brian's life before he takes his final bow."</p> <p>Sarah, who is also an actress, previously confirmed the news of his death in a heartbreaking tribute post to her late sibling, saying he "is gone much too soon".</p> <p>"It is with great sadness that we announce the passing of Brian James McCardie (59), beloved son, brother, uncle and dear friend to so many," her post began.</p> <p>"Brian passed away suddenly at home on Sunday 28th April. A wonderful and passionate actor on stage and screen, Brian loved his work and touched many lives, and is gone much too soon."</p> <p>"We love him and will miss him greatly; please remember Brian in your thoughts."</p> <p>The post was flooded with comments of condolences, as one person wrote, "One of Scotland's greats on both the stage and the screen."</p> <p>McCardie was best known for his role as Tommy Hunter on BBC's <em>Line of Duty</em>, the show <em>Time</em> with Sean Bean, and the film <em>Rob Roy</em> co-starring Liam Neeson.</p> <p><em>Image credits: BBC / Instagram </em></p>

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King Charles returns to public duties for the first time since diagnosis

<p>King Charles has made his first official public appearance since being diagnosed with cancer in February. </p> <p>In a symbolic appearance on Tuesday morning, the royal visited the Macmillan Cancer Centre at the University College Hospital donning a navy pinstripe suit with a light blue shirt and a pink dinosaur tie.</p> <p>The monarch was joined by his wife, Queen Camilla, with the couple sporting huge smiles as they waved to the crowd outside of the London hospital. </p> <p>The royal couple met with clinicians, patients and families of patients during the visit, and when asked by one patient how his treatment was going, Charles replied: "I'm alright, thank you".</p> <p>In one photo Charles can be seen tenderly placing his hand on the arms of a patient as he spoke with them. </p> <p>One patient discussed her chemotherapy with Charles, who who told her: “I’ve got to have my treatment this afternoon as well,” according to the <em>Mirror</em>.</p> <p>He also shared his reaction to finding out about his diagnosis for the first time, telling one patient: “It’s always a bit of a shock, isn’t it, when they tell you?”</p> <p>The King's hospital visit comes just days after the Palace released a statement confirming that he was showing progress with his treatment and would be resuming official duties. </p> <p>“His Majesty The King will shortly return to public-facing duties after a period of treatment and recuperation following his recent cancer diagnosis,”  it read, before announcing the visit to the cancer centre. </p> <p>“This visit will be the first in a number of external engagements His Majesty will undertake in the weeks ahead.”</p> <p>Despite this, his upcoming summer schedule would not be a full one, with events like the King's Birthday parade, known as Trooping the Colour, and the Royal Ascot, being undertaken on a case-by-case basis. </p> <p>He also plans to host the Emperor and Empress of Japan in late June. </p> <p>“As the first anniversary of the Coronation approaches, Their Majesties remain deeply grateful for the many kindnesses and good wishes they have received from around the world throughout the joys and challenges of the past year,” the statement concluded. </p> <p><em>Image: Getty</em></p>

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Stamp duty is holding us back from moving homes – we’ve worked out how much

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/nick-garvin-1453835">Nick Garvin</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/macquarie-university-1174">Macquarie University</a></em></p> <p>If just one state of Australia, New South Wales, scrapped its stamp duty on real-estate transactions, about 100,000 more Australians would move homes each year, according to our <a href="https://e61.in/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Stamp-duty-effects-on-purchases-and-moves.pdf">best estimates</a>.</p> <p>Stamp duty is an unquestioned part of buying a home in Australia – you put your details in an online mortgage calculator, and stamp duty is automatically deducted from the amount you have to contribute.</p> <p>It’s easy to overlook how much more affordable a home would be without it.</p> <p>That means it’s also easy to overlook how much more Australians would buy and move if stamp duty wasn’t there.</p> <p>The 2010 Henry Tax Review found stamp duty was <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-10/afts_final_report_part_2_vol_1_consolidated.pdf">inequitable</a>. It taxes most the people who most need to or want to move.</p> <p>The review reported: "Ideally, there would be no role for any stamp duties, including conveyancing stamp duties, in a modern Australian tax system. Recognising the revenue needs of the States, the removal of stamp duty should be achieved through a switch to more efficient taxes, such as those levied on broad consumption or land bases."</p> <p>But does stamp duty actually stop anyone moving? It’s a claim more often made than assessed, which is what our team at the <a href="https://e61.in/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Stamp-duty-effects-on-purchases-and-moves.pdf">e61 Institute</a> set out to do.</p> <p>We used real-estate transaction data and a natural experiment.</p> <h2>What happened when Queensland hiked stamp duty</h2> <p>In 2011, Queensland hiked stamp duty for most buyers by removing some concessions for owner-occupiers at short notice.</p> <p>For owner-occupiers it increased stamp duty by about one percentage point, lifting the average rate from 1.26% of the purchase price to 2.27%.</p> <p>What we found gives us the best estimate to date of what stamp duty does to home purchases.</p> <p>A one percentage point increase in stamp duty causes the number of home purchases to decline by 7.2%.</p> <p>The number of moves (changes of address) falls by about as much.</p> <p>The effect appears to be indiscriminate. Purchases of houses fell about as much as purchases of apartments, and purchases in cities fell about as much as purchases in regions.</p> <p>Moves between suburbs and moves interstate dropped by similar rates.</p> <p>With NSW stamp duty currently averaging about <a href="https://conveyancing.com.au/need-to-know/stamp-duty-nsw">3.5%</a> of the purchase price, our estimates suggest there would be about 25% more purchases and moves by home owners if it were scrapped completely. That’s 100,000 moves.</p> <p>Victoria’s higher rate of stamp duty, about <a href="https://www.sro.vic.gov.au/rates-taxes-duties-and-levies/general-land-transfer-duty-property-current-rates">4.2%</a>, means if it was scrapped there would be about 30% more purchases. That’s another 90,000 moves.</p> <h2>Even low headline rates have big effects</h2> <p>The big effect from small-looking headline rates ought not to be surprising.</p> <p>When someone buys a home, they typically front up much less cash than the purchase price. While stamp duty seems low as a percentage of the purchase price, it is high as a percentage of the cash the buyer needs to find.</p> <p>Here’s an example. If stamp duty is 4% of the purchase price, and a purchaser pays $800,000 for a property with a mortgage deposit of $160,000, the $32,000 stamp duty adds 20%, not 4%, to what’s needed.</p> <p>If the deposit takes five years to save, stamp duty makes it six.</p> <p>A similar thing happens when an owner-occupier changes address. If the buyer sells a fully owned home for $700,000 and buys a new home for $800,000, the upgrade ought to cost them $100,000. A 4% stamp duty lifts that to $132,000.</p> <p>Averaged across all Australian cities, stamp duty costs about <a href="https://e61.in/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Stepped-on-by-Stamp-Duty.pdf">five months</a> of after-tax earnings. In Sydney and Melbourne, it’s six.</p> <h2>Stamp duty has bracket creep</h2> <p>This cost has steadily climbed from around <a href="https://e61.in/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Stepped-on-by-Stamp-Duty.pdf">six weeks</a> of total earnings in the 1990s. It has happened because home prices have climbed faster than incomes and because stamp duty has brackets, meaning more buyers have been pushed into higher ones.</p> <p>Replacing the stamp duty revenue that states have come to rely on would not be easy, but a switch would almost certainly help the economy function better.</p> <p>The more that people are able to move, the more they will move to jobs to which they are better suited, boosting productivity.</p> <p>The more that people downsize when they want to, the more housing will be made available for others.</p> <p>Our findings suggest the costs are far from trivial, making a switch away from stamp duty worthwhile, even if it is disruptive and takes time.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225773/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/nick-garvin-1453835">Nick Garvin</a>, Adjunct Fellow, Department of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/macquarie-university-1174">Macquarie University</a></em></p> <p><em>Image credits: Getty Images </em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/stamp-duty-is-holding-us-back-from-moving-homes-weve-worked-out-how-much-225773">original article</a>.</em></p> </div>

Money & Banking

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What happens if King Charles can no longer perform his duties?

<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/anne-twomey-6072">Anne Twomey</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841">University of Sydney</a></em></p> <p>King Charles III’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-06/king-charles-cancer-diagnosis-revealed-by-buckingham-palace/103430320">cancer diagnosis</a> will turn minds to the question of what happens if he becomes unable to fulfil his constitutional duties. Buckingham Palace has announced he will continue performing his official paperwork and his weekly meetings with the prime minister throughout his treatment.<br />But what happens if he becomes seriously ill?</p> <p>There are three options: counsellors of state, regency and abdication.</p> <h2>Counsellors of state</h2> <p>First, King Charles can delegate some or most of his royal functions to <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/Edw8and1Geo6/1/16/section/6">counsellors of state</a>, as happens most commonly when he is travelling overseas. Two counsellors of state act jointly in exercising royal powers such as assenting to laws, receiving ambassadors and holding <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7460/">Privy Council</a> meetings.</p> <p>The <a href="https://www.royal.uk/counsellors-of-state">counsellors of state</a> are the spouse of the sovereign and the next four adults in line of succession to the throne – being Queen Camilla, Prince William, Prince Harry, Prince Andrew and Princess Beatrice.</p> <p>However, Prince Harry is excluded while he is outside the United Kingdom, and in practice Prince Andrew and Princess Beatrice are not called on to act as they are not “working royals”.</p> <p>As this left only Queen Camilla and Prince William to perform the role, a <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2022/47/2022-12-07/data.html#:%7E:text=An%20Act%20to%20add%20His,delegated%20as%20Counsellors%20of%20State.">law</a> was passed in the UK in 2022 to <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/creating-more-counsellors-of-state/">add Princess Anne and Prince Edward</a> to the list.</p> <p>Counsellors of state may carry out most of the sovereign’s functions while he is ill, but they cannot dissolve parliament, except on his instruction, and they cannot create peers. Whether they can appoint a prime minister remains a matter of debate. Most significantly, they cannot exercise powers with respect to the King’s other realms, such as Australia.</p> <h2>Regency</h2> <p>The second option is a regency. This occurs if the King “is by reason of infirmity of mind or body <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/Edw8and1Geo6/1/16/section/2">incapable</a> for the time being of performing the royal functions”. The sovereign does not control when or for how long a regency occurs. Instead, it is initiated by a declaration of three or more of: the sovereign’s spouse, the lord chancellor, the speaker of the House of Commons, the lord chief justice of England and the <a href="https://www.judiciary.uk/about-the-judiciary/who-are-the-judiciary/judges/profile-mor/">master of the rolls</a>.</p> <p>The UK’s Regency Act <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/Edw8and1Geo6/1/16/section/3">requires</a> Prince William to be regent, as he is the next adult in line of succession to the crown. The regent has the powers of the King with respect to the United Kingdom, but cannot change the order of succession to the crown.</p> <p>The Regency Act does not give the regent powers in relation to realms such as Australia and New Zealand. New Zealand resolved the problem by inserting a <a href="https://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1986/0114/latest/DLM94216.html">section</a> into its Constitution Act which provides that whoever is made regent under the law of the UK may perform the royal functions of the sovereign with respect to New Zealand. Australia, however, has done nothing in this regard, so a British regent would have no powers with respect to Australia.</p> <h2>Abdication</h2> <p>The final option for an incapacitated monarch is abdication. This leads to difficult questions about how an abdication would operate in relation to each of the realms.</p> <p>When King Edward VIII abdicated in 1936, it was achieved by both a signed <a href="https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/education/resources/significant-events/abdication-of-edward-viii-1936/">instrument of abdication</a> and the enactment of <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/Edw8and1Geo6/1/3/enacted#:%7E:text=(1)Immediately%20upon%20the%20Royal,and%20there%20shall%20be%20a">legislation</a> to which the various realms, including Australia, assented. This is not possible today, as the UK can <a href="https://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/num_act/aa1986114/s1.html">no longer legislate</a> with respect to Australia.</p> <p>Abdication would therefore raise difficult questions about whether there needed to be a separate abdication of the King of Australia, to trigger the application of the rules of succession that are now part of Australian law, or whether <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s2.html">covering clause 2</a> of the Constitution, which defines the sovereign by reference to Queen Victoria’s “heirs and successors in the sovereignty of the United Kingdom”, would apply.</p> <p>Because of the potential constitutional messiness of dealing with the King’s role in his 14 realms beyond the United Kingdom, it is likely abdication would be avoided.</p> <h2>Consequences for Australia</h2> <p>If King Charles were incapacitated and counsellors of state or a regent were appointed, would this cause any real problem in Australia?</p> <p>The King’s only remaining substantial powers with respect to Australia are the appointment and removal of the governor-general and the state governors. The governor-general’s term is expected to expire in the middle of the year. If King Charles were then seriously ill and unable to appoint a new governor-general, no one could do so, as neither counsellors of state nor a regent could do so.</p> <p>Instead, the current governor-general, David Hurley, could choose to continue in office, as there is no formal termination of his office until he is replaced.</p> <p>Alternatively, he could resign and his office could be filled on a temporary basis by a state governor as <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/xx4.html">administrator</a>, as is the usual practice when there is a vacancy in the office. If the office of a state governor becomes vacant, the <a href="https://www.governor.nsw.gov.au/governor/lieutenant-governor/role-of-the-lieutenant-governor/">lieutenant-governor</a>, who is often the chief justice of the state, can exercise the governor’s functions.</p> <p>However, if a regency were to continue for a long time – perhaps years – this could become unsustainable.</p> <p>The other consideration is that if there is a regency, there is no power to <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/in-race-to-palace-governor-general-has-inside-running/news-story/d3918f42af1d081f203daa65f5b53e0f">dismiss a governor-general</a>. So if a constitutional crisis arose, such as that in 1975 with the dismissal of the Whitlam government, the governor-general would know that he or she could act without the prospect of dismissal on the advice of the prime minister. This unbalances the constitutional pressures that are deliberately built into the system, giving a stronger hand to the governor-general and weakening the position of the prime minister.</p> <p>The <a href="https://michaelwest.com.au/king-charles-illness-affects-australia/">problem</a> could be addressed in the same way as the rules of succession to the throne were changed <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/C2015A00023/asmade/text">in 2015</a> to remove gender discrimination. It would involve each state enacting a law requesting the Commonwealth to enact a law that recognised the authority of a regent to exercise the sovereign’s powers with respect to Australia.</p> <p>While it is not essential to fix this problem, it would still be wise, as a matter of orderly constitutional housekeeping, to address it before any real difficulties arise.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222870/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/anne-twomey-6072"><em>Anne Twomey</em></a><em>, Professor emerita, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841">University of Sydney</a></em></p> <p><em>Image credits: Getty Images </em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-happens-if-king-charles-can-no-longer-perform-his-duties-222870">original article</a>.</em></p>

Caring

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Can juries still deliver justice in high-profile cases in the age of social media?

<p>The recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-was-the-lehrmann-trial-aborted-and-what-happens-next-193382" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sudden end</a> to the Bruce Lehrmann trial last month raises again whether the jury is fit for purpose in a 21st century hyper-connected world.</p> <p>That jury’s service in the Lehrmann case ended peremptorily after it was revealed to the judge that material downloaded from the internet (which was highly relevant to the case and not introduced as evidence) had been found in the jury room. A retrial has been <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/courts-law/bruce-lehrmann-retrial-confirmed-for-2023-says-act-director-of-public-prosecutions-shane-drumgold/news-story/6012323f3d863985ce5a001f10a3a7eb" target="_blank" rel="noopener">set for late February</a>. Lehrmann had been accused of raping former Liberal Party staffer Brittany Higgins, to which he pleaded not guilty.</p> <p>The costs so far (to both parties and the court) could well exceed a million dollars.</p> <p>With easy access to the internet available to any juror who owns a mobile phone, is it conceivable that all jurors will abide by the strict instructions of a judge admonishing them to pay attention only to the evidence adduced in the trial?</p> <p>Are instructions to jurors to avoid media sources meaningless given the accessibility of the internet?</p> <p>These aren’t new questions. In 2005, <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/researchpapers/Documents/trial-by-jury-recent-developments/jury%20and%20index.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a report</a> prepared for the NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service observed:</p> <blockquote> <p>Prominent cases in recent years […] have illustrated the legal problems that can occur when jurors, despite judicial instructions to confine their deliberations to the evidence before them, undertake their own research, discuss the case with non-jurors, or visit a place connected with the offence. The increasing amount of legal information available on the internet is a cause for particular concern. The Jury Amendment Act 2004 […] prohibits jurors from making inquiries about the accused or issues in the trial, except in the proper exercise of juror functions.</p> </blockquote> <p>But for all the warnings and threats of consequences, a juror may still stray down <a href="http://www.lawfoundation.net.au/ljf/site/templates/grants/$file/UNSW_Jury_Study_Hunter_2013.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the path of private sleuth</a>. It’s easy to do and Australians have a voracious appetite for social media. In 2018 <a href="https://www.yellow.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Yellow-Social-Media-Report-2018-Consumer.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a survey reported</a> 62% of Australian adults use social media sites every day, and 34% use them more than five times a day.</p> <p>This becomes particularly problematic when the eyes of the world are fixed on cases such as these.</p> <p>The sudden and unexpected end to the Lehrmann trial prompts a more fundamental question: should we continue to persist with juries at all?</p> <h2>Two sides</h2> <p>There are two sides to the argument regarding retention of the jury.</p> <p>On the one hand, juries have stood the test of time. The idea of being tried by one’s peers was entrenched by the <a href="https://www.bl.uk/magna-carta/articles/magna-carta-and-jury-trial" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Magna Carta of 1215</a>. Even though the jury as we know it didn’t crystallise until about 350 years ago and has been through a number of permutations since then, there would be few people who could argue against its symbolic legitimacy given its staying power.</p> <p>Over that time, juries have been given sustained examination in Australia by the <a href="https://www.lawreform.justice.nsw.gov.au/Documents/Publications/Reports/Report-48.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">New South Wales Law Reform Commission</a>, the Queensland <a href="https://www.ccc.qld.gov.au/sites/default/files/Docs/Publications/CJC/The-jury-system-in-criminal-trials-in-qld-Issues-paper-1991.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Criminal Justice Commission</a>, the <a href="https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/images/stories/committees/lawrefrom/jury_service/report_volume_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Victorian Law Reform Committee</a>, and most recently by academics at <a href="https://cdn.csu.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/3452182/Jury-Reasoning-v2-NEW-BRANDING.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Charles Sturt University</a>, to name a few. Juries have survived largely intact throughout this exercise.</p> <p>On the other hand, there are doubts about their efficiency. Juries took a hit after the High Court decision <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-jury-may-be-out-on-the-jury-system-after-george-pells-successful-appeal-135814" target="_blank" rel="noopener">in the George Pell appeal</a> where the judges, in allowing the appeal, ruled that no jury, properly instructed, could have reached a guilty verdict in his trial.</p> <p>What’s more, it’s overstated to say that trial by jury is a fundamental bulwark of fairness in the criminal justice system. Indeed, 92% of criminal matters in Australia are dealt with in the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/crime-and-justice/criminal-courts-australia/latest-release" target="_blank" rel="noopener">magistrates courts</a>, where there are no juries. Of the remaining 8% referred to the “superior” criminal courts (Supreme, District and County), more and more defendants are choosing “judge alone” trials (in jurisdictions where that option is available). For example, in NSW, <a href="https://theconversation.com/jury-is-out-why-shifting-to-judge-alone-trials-is-a-flawed-approach-to-criminal-justice-137397" target="_blank" rel="noopener">up to a quarter of accused persons</a> are now electing to be tried without a jury.</p> <p>Other studies have highlighted how jurors <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0194659507000470" target="_blank" rel="noopener">overrate DNA evidence</a> despite judicial directions, which may lead to <a href="https://researchdirect.westernsydney.edu.au/islandora/object/uws:10533" target="_blank" rel="noopener">far more jury convictions</a> than are warranted, and how jurors’ perceptions of guilt and innocence can be affected by the <a href="https://researchdirect.westernsydney.edu.au/islandora/object/uws:44141" target="_blank" rel="noopener">positioning of defendants</a> in the courtroom. <a href="https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:331175" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Another study</a> found that although jurors report they understand directions, they often don’t appear to use those directions in arriving at a decision.</p> <p>And finally, as the Lehrmann trial has illustrated, it’s not unusual for jurors to ignore or misunderstand the instructions that have been given to them.</p> <p>But, what about the ability of juries to apply some of their own “commonsense” justice? True, there are examples of juries wielding their own commonsense stick. For example, a verdict that <a href="https://www.coursehero.com/file/p7dtm6g/R-v-R-1981-28-SASR-321-South-Australian-Supreme-Court-King-CJ-Jacobs-Zelling-JJ/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">occurred in 1981</a> when a South Australian jury returned a verdict of not guilty for a woman who had been charged with the murder of her husband. The jury decided that the defence of provocation (only available to reduce murder to manslaughter) exonerated her, figuring that, in the time before the victim’s death, his severe and persistent abuse of his family had pushed his wife to breaking point.</p> <p>There is, however, a contrary argument. Research has revealed that “commonsense” <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/lapo.12181" target="_blank" rel="noopener">comes with coded biases</a>, such that telling jurors to use their commonsense is futile, given it’s difficult (if not impossible) to erode such biases.</p> <h2>Are there other options?</h2> <p>One alternative to the jury is mixed judiciaries used in some European countries, where one may find a panel of judges or <a href="https://academic.oup.com/book/32863/chapter/275978049?login=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a combination of judges and lay people</a>. But the common law world has never looked like following that lead.</p> <p>Another alternative in use in Australia is a judge alone trial, although <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/RP9697/97rp11" target="_blank" rel="noopener">that option</a> isn’t always available, and by virtue of <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/RP9697/97rp11" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Section 80 of the Constitution</a> isn’t available in a trial of a serious federal offence. Indeed, there’s no guarantee that judges themselves are immune from social media influences. While there’s a widespread belief that judges are more capable than juries of putting <a href="https://chelmsfordlegal.com.au/trial-by-judge-alone-is-it-possible-and-if-so-is-it-preferable/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">to one side their own prejudices</a>, the rules regarding sub judice contempt (discussing publicly a matter that is before a court in a manner that may influence the outcome) applies equally to judge alone and jury trials.</p> <p>Adding to the policy confusion, there’s some evidence trials by judge alone do make a difference to the outcome. The NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics <a href="https://stacklaw.com.au/news/criminal-law/trial-by-jury-vs-trial-by-judge-alone-whats-the-difference/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">examined NSW trials between 1993 and 2011</a> and found defendants were acquitted 55.4% of the time in a judge alone trial, compared to 29% in a jury trial.</p> <p>Another reform idea is to allow jurors to <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?view_op=view_citation&amp;hl=en&amp;user=dMsPrLwAAAAJ&amp;citation_for_view=dMsPrLwAAAAJ:7PzlFSSx8tAC" target="_blank" rel="noopener">raise questions with the judge</a> during breaks in the trial, including asking about things they may have “accidentally” come across on social media. A judge could send the jury out while the lawyers present to the judge how they think the questions should be handled and answered. However, this idea has yet to excite policymakers.</p> <p>In the end, we must accept there are flaws in jury process. But finding acceptable alternatives has proved difficult, hence the reluctance of governments to abandon the status quo. Judges will continue to warn against private sleuthing, but one suspects that it will, from time to time, continue regardless.</p> <p>One can only hope the disaster that befell the Lehrmann trial sends a salutary lesson to prospective jurors henceforth: listen to what the judge tells you, and during the course of the trial leave your favourite search engine alone.</p> <p><strong>This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-juries-still-deliver-justice-in-high-profile-cases-in-the-age-of-social-media-193843" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>.</strong></p> <p><em>Image: ABC</em></p>

Legal

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Stunning developments in rape trial of Bruce Lehrmann

<p dir="ltr">The jury in the rape trial of Bruce Lehrmann has been dismissed with no verdict after a juror accessed material that was not admitted in court.</p> <p dir="ltr">Mr Lehrmann has pleaded not guilty of raping former Liberal staffer Brittany Higgins in Parliament House after a night out drinking in March 2019.</p> <p dir="ltr">The trial ran for 12 days with 29 witnesses taking the stand before the jury was asked to deliberate on the evidence.</p> <p dir="ltr">A few days after the trial ended, the jurors could not reach a verdict but were urged by the judge to go back and come to a conclusion.</p> <p dir="ltr">Chief Justice Lucy McCallum then notified the court on October 27 that a juror had accessed evidence that was not presented in court.</p> <p dir="ltr">All 12 jurors were called into the ACT Supreme Court and questioned after an academic paper that reported on how often false rape accusations were made was found.</p> <p dir="ltr">"During routine tidying of the jury room by three sheriff's officers after the conclusion of proceedings yesterday, one of the officers accidentally bumped one of the juror's document holders onto the floor," she said, ABC reported.</p> <p dir="ltr">She said she had no other choice but to dismiss the jurors despite warning them “at least 17 times” to only discuss the points said in court.</p> <p dir="ltr">"You must not try to undertake your own research," she said she told them.</p> <p dir="ltr">"You must rely exclusively on the evidence you hear in this courtroom.</p> <p dir="ltr">"If you are learning something about this trial, and I'm not there, then you should not be doing it."</p> <p dir="ltr">Despite dismissing the jurors, Justice McCallum thanked them and told them that their time was not wasted.</p> <p dir="ltr">"This may come as a frustration to you after the hard work you all put in, and I want to convey my extreme gratitude," she said.</p> <p dir="ltr">"I don't want you to leave court thinking this has been a waste of time."</p> <p dir="ltr">Mr Lehrmann was granted bail until the new trial which is scheduled for February 20, 2023.</p> <p dir="ltr">Outside the court, an emotional Ms Higgins then delivered a tearful speech in which she said she “chose to speak up” to help others who were in a similar situation.</p> <p dir="ltr">As a result, Mr Lehrmann’s lawyers are now seeking urgent legal advice from police over whether Brittany Higgins' speech outside the ACT Supreme Court could constitute contempt of court.</p> <p>Mr Lehrmann’s defence barrister Steve Whybrow later confirmed In a statement that he had referred the matter to police.</p> <p>“When we left Court this morning, I indicated to the gathered media that given this matter was ongoing and a date of 20 February 2023 had been fixed for any retrial, it would be both inappropriate and irresponsible to make any further comment at this stage,” the statement read.</p> <p>“I understand the complainant and other members of her support team were all seated in Court this morning when the Chief Justice discharged the jury and made strong comments about people making statements or comments that could prejudice a fair trial.</p> <p>“Notwithstanding Her Honour’s admonition, the complainant proceeded to give what appears to have been a pre-prepared speech to the media outside the Court.”</p> <p>“We have brought these comments to the attention of the Court and the Australian Federal Police, and it is not appropriate for Mr Lehrmann or his lawyers to make any comment as to whether the complainant’s statements might amount to a contempt of court offences against the ACT Criminal Code.</p> <p>“I urge all media to show restraint in reporting this matter and in particular in republishing the statements made by the complainant.</p> <p>“Neither Mr Lehrmann nor his lawyers will be making any further comment on this matter at this stage.”</p> <p dir="ltr"><em>Images: ABC</em></p>

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Camilla’s ex-husband carries out official duty on her behalf

<p dir="ltr">Queen Consort Camilla's ex-husband, whom she shares two kids with, has carried out an official duty on her behalf.</p> <p dir="ltr">Brigadier Andrew Parker Bowles formally represented the Queen Consort at his cousin John Bowes-Lyon’s funeral at the London Oratory.</p> <p dir="ltr">This is the first official duty he has performed on behalf of his ex-wife and it is believed that it won’t be the last time the 82-year-old former Army officer would represent the Queen Consort.</p> <p dir="ltr">“Andrew is happy to do anything he is asked. He still enjoys a warm relationship with Camilla,” a source told Daily Mail. </p> <p dir="ltr">Camilla and Andrew married in 1973 before they separated in the 1980s and divorced in 1995.</p> <p dir="ltr">They share two children, Tom and Laura. </p> <p dir="ltr">Earlier this year, the Queen Consort spoke candidly about cooking for her children despite not being a great in the kitchen. </p> <p dir="ltr">“I always cooked for the children growing up, and they were good eaters, but I was never the most adventurous of cooks,” she said. </p> <p dir="ltr">“I was sent on a cooking course in Sussex when I was young but, really, I learnt from my mother. I’ve never followed a recipe in my life...</p> <p dir="ltr">“I could fill a book with all my cooking disasters. I’m not a natural baker, to say the least. </p> <p dir="ltr">“As for baked potatoes… many a poor, incinerated specimen has been found in the bottom of the Aga, put in, then forgotten about.”</p> <p dir="ltr">Camilla married King Charles III in 2005 following a whirlwind romance and affairs dating back to when Charles was married to Diana. </p> <p dir="ltr"><em>Image: Getty</em></p>

Family & Pets

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“Absolutely despicable”: Teens attack off-duty chief inspector with pole

<p dir="ltr">A Sydney mayor has condemned an alleged attack against an off-duty police officer, describing the act as “absolutely despicable”.</p> <p dir="ltr">Chief Inspector Bob Fitzgerald, who also serves as a councillor with Blacktown City Council, was on his way to work on Monday morning when he intervened when three teenagers were seen harassing other passengers and railway staff at Rooty Hill station, per <em><a href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/truecrimeaustralia/police-courts-nsw/senior-cop-allegedly-assaulted-by-three-teens-at-rooty-hill-train-station/news-story/de5e5f399ce968fc04a2a1b6800f2849" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Daily Telegraph</a></em>.</p> <p dir="ltr">Police said Inspector Fitzgerald approached the teens, aged 14, 13, and 12, at about 4.30 am and asked them to stop what they were doing, informing them he was a police officer.</p> <p dir="ltr">When he went to arrest the 14-year-old with the help of a member of the public, the boy resisted before verbally abusing and assaulting Inspector Fitzgerald, police allege.</p> <p dir="ltr">It’s alleged Inspector Fitzgerald was struck multiple times to the head with a bike seat pole.</p> <p dir="ltr">He was taken to hospital for head injuries that required stitches and was later released.</p> <p dir="ltr">The member of the public was also allegedly assaulted but didn’t require medical attention.</p> <p dir="ltr">More police rushed to the station, arresting all three boys and taking them to Mount Druitt police station.</p> <p dir="ltr">Tony Bleasdable, the mayor of Blacktown City, said on Tuesday that he condemned the attack on Inspector Fitzgerald, who he described as “one of our city’s finest”.</p> <p dir="ltr">“Cr Fitzgerald is a pillar of our community who has earned widespread respect over many years,” Mr Bleasdale said.</p> <p dir="ltr">“Not only is he a dedicated police officer, he is a community volunteer, and a passionate Blacktown City Councillor who has given so much to his community for so long.</p> <p dir="ltr">“As mayor, I condemn this alleged attack on one of our city’s finest and denounce violence in all its forms.”</p> <p dir="ltr">Mr Bleasdale said the council wanted to promote a culture of nonviolence through their work with NSW Police, the PCYC and other organisations, and encouraged residents to call out violence before wishing Inspector Fitzgerald a speedy recovery.</p> <p dir="ltr">“Council is committed to creating a safe community for our residents to live, work and play,” he said.</p> <p dir="ltr">“We pursue this through our crime prevention plan and work with our local police in particular.</p> <p dir="ltr">“Council encourages residents to call out violence in any shape or form and report any acts of violence to police.</p> <p dir="ltr">“I wish Bob a speedy recovery.”</p> <p dir="ltr">All three boys were charged with affray, with the 14-year-old facing another charge for resisting an officer in execution of duty, and the 13-year-old facing charges for causing grievous bodily harm to a police officer on duty reckless as to actual bodily harm and common assault. The 12-year-old was also charged with causing grievous bodily harm to a police officer on duty reckless to actual bodily harm.</p> <p dir="ltr">They were refused bail and faced children’s court on Tuesday.</p> <p dir="ltr">As police inquiries continue, anyone who witnessed the attack or who have footage from the incident, are urged to contact Mt Druitt Police Station or Crime Stoppers on 1800 333 000.</p> <p><span id="docs-internal-guid-739a7620-7fff-c8d4-9482-55bec567a06b"></span></p> <p dir="ltr"><em>Image: The Daily Telegraph</em></p>

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Swapping stamp duty for land tax would push down house prices but push up apartment prices, new modelling finds

<p>In the state budget, NSW have announced a switch from stamp duty to <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-to-phase-out-stamp-duty-introduce-property-tax-20220612-p5at3p.html">land tax</a>.</p> <p>It will become the second Australian jurisdiction to do so, with the ACT halfway through a <a href="https://www.treasury.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/1618407/cops-final-report.pdf">20-year</a> switchover.</p> <p>Homebuyers who accept the offer will be taxed annually on the value of their land, instead of hit with an upfront fee (that averaged $50,000 for Sydney in 2018) when they buy.</p> <p>Once they have accepted, their property will be out of the stamp duty system and subject only to land tax for future owners.</p> <p>It’s become conventional wisdom to say that such a revenue-neutral switch would <a href="https://www.treasury.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-10/FFR%20Final%20Report%20-%20200828%20%281%29.pdf">boost productivity</a>.</p> <p>Why? Moving house sets in motion a chain of transactions: residents engage lawyers to transfer titles, real estate agents to manage the property sale, removalists to transport possessions, and so on.</p> <p>Stamp duties compound these costs, by adding a significant, additional layer of taxation, which in some states makes up 80% of the total cost of moving house.</p> <p>Land tax, in contrast, is one of the least-damaging taxes. It encourages land owners to put land to its <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/publication/understanding-the-economy-wide-efficiency-and-incidence-of-major-australian-taxes">highest-value use</a>.</p> <p>In a landmark <a href="https://www.copsmodels.com/ftp/workpapr/g-330.pdf">modelling exercise</a> completed this month, my team at the Victoria University Centre of Policy Studies finds that the productivity gains are large by the standards of tax swaps.</p> <p>After 20 years, replacing stamp duty with a land tax would boost national income by A$0.30 for each dollar of revenue swapped, or up to $720 per household if implemented Australia-wide, about 0.34% of annual gross domestic product.</p> <p>Of greater interest for homeowners and buyers is what it would do to prices.</p> <h2>Houses versus apartments</h2> <p>Broadly, we find that the switch would put downward pressure on prices, but not for every type of home.</p> <p>Across the market as a whole, we expect downward pressure on the price paid by buyers of about 4.7%, and downward pressure on the price received by sellers of about 0.1%.</p> <p>But for houses, we expect much stronger downward pressure than the average suggests.</p> <p>We expect the price paid by house buyers to fall by about 7.6%, and the price received by sellers to fall 3%.</p> <p>Interestingly, for apartments we expect movements in the other direction, pushing up the price paid by buyers by 2%, and pushing up the price received by sellers by 6.4%.</p> <h2>What’s so different about apartments?</h2> <p>Why would the switch put downward pressure on the price of houses but upward pressure on the price of apartments?</p> <p>It is because of how two offsetting effects play out.</p> <p>One is that higher land taxes depress land prices. Buyers who know they will be lumbered with future bills find their purchases less valuable. This effect is much bigger on house prices than apartment prices, because houses occupy more land on average.</p> <p>The other effect is that removing stamp duty not only removes an impost on the current buyer, but also removes an impost that will have to be paid when the current buyer sells, and when the subsequent buyer sells, and so on, making resale more valuable to the current buyer than it would have been.</p> <p>For properties that aren’t turned over often this effect isn’t very important, but for properties that are turned over frequently, it becomes significant.</p> <p>Apartments are turned over twice as frequently as houses, meaning that for apartments the upward effect on prices from removing stamp duty overwhelms the downward effect from imposing land tax.</p> <h2>Much depends on exactly what’s proposed</h2> <p>It would be possible to lessen this upward pressure on apartment prices by imposing higher land taxes on higher density housing, an idea canvassed by the <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/review/the-australias-future-tax-system-review/publications">Henry Tax Review</a> in 2010. Planning and zoning rules could also play a role.</p> <p>Other policy design decisions could have other effects on prices. Our modelling is based on an immediate swap of stamp duty for land tax.</p> <p>This is not the same as the NSW government’s opt-in proposal, which could have different price consequences to the policy we modelled.</p> <p>The NSW government is also reported to be considering excluding the most <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/stamp-duty-move-puts-pressure-on-other-states-20220613-p5ataj.html">expensive 20%</a> of properties from the switchover, so it can continue to collect stamp duties on high-value transfers.</p> <p>In future work we plan to extend our modelling beyond a simple swap of stamp duty and land tax.</p> <p><em>Image credits: Getty Images</em></p> <p><em>This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/swapping-stamp-duty-for-land-tax-would-push-down-house-prices-but-push-up-apartment-prices-new-modelling-finds-184381" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>. </em></p>

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Flight attendant’s hack to get more carry-on luggage

<p dir="ltr">A flight attendant has shared her own sneaky trick for travellers to get more items through in their carry-on luggage. </p> <p dir="ltr">Most airlines allow passengers to bring one carry-on bag on board the flight that weighs between seven and 10 kilograms, depending on the airline. </p> <p dir="ltr">Flight attendant Miguel Muñoz called it the “duty free hack”, telling the <a href="https://www.express.co.uk/travel/articles/1604324/flight-attendant-tips-hacks-how-to-bring-extra-bag-on-board-free-exclusive">Express.co.uk</a> duty free bags don't count as carry-on baggage.</p> <p dir="ltr">"I always do this when I fly as a passenger," Muñoz said, sharing that all you have to do is carry a duty free bag.</p> <p dir="ltr">"Or ask for one at the duty free shop and you place whatever you want in the shopping bag."</p> <p dir="ltr">This also works for when your suitcase might be too heavy at check-in, giving travellers another vessel to put their extra items in at the last minute. </p> <p dir="ltr">"If you ever find yourself in that situation, just put whatever you need in a duty free bag. You are welcome!" Muñoz said.</p> <p dir="ltr">Many people praised the woman’s sneaky trick, while also sharing some of their own unique ways they manage to get more out of their carry-on luggage. </p> <p dir="ltr">One person shared another hack they had seen <a href="https://www.oversixty.com.au/travel/travel-tips/woman-avoids-baggage-fees-with-genius-neck-pillow-hack?fbclid=IwAR3hpuF0Cyf4_K8UPT9WKa6jaWoeEj4e9a-DGAVdhy5vDUcNvRjUVx6F_HE">online</a>, which involves hollowing out a travel neck pillow and shoving it full of clothes. </p> <p dir="ltr">This way, you can bring more items in your carry-on luggage, and still use your travel pillow functionally. </p> <p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-top: 12pt; margin-bottom: 15pt;"><em>Image credits: Getty Images</em><span id="docs-internal-guid-3a71ea36-7fff-b257-bf58-203d1b73d088"></span></p>

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Jury’s in for ivermectin: “No clinical significance.”

<p>At last, one of the largest and most rigorous clinical trials to test ivermectin as a COVID treatment has published its results in the prestigious <em>New England Journal of Medicine</em>.</p> <p>The fervent belief for many was that ivermectin – originally a worming medication – would protect infected people from progressing to severe disease requiring hospitalisation.</p> <p>The trial found that ivermectin given in the first seven days after symptoms had no significant effect.</p> <p>For those in the know, the finding comes as little surprise. The so-called <a href="https://www.togethertrial.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">TOGETHER trial</a> reported its primary results in seminars to other scientists and policy makers in <a href="https://c19ivermectin.com/togetherivm.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">early August</a> last year.</p> <p>The question is why it has taken so long to publish those results for the rest of us. The lack of clarity over the effectiveness of ivermectin has wreaked havoc. Many have foregone vaccination and even refused tested medical treatments, preferring to take ivermectin at <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/09/04/1034217306/ivermectin-overdose-exposure-cases-poison-control-centers" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">unsafe</a> high doses or even veterinary pastes in the belief that it was a cure. These beliefs have been propped up by doctors around the world, including those in Britain’s <a href="https://bird-group.org/who-are-bird/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">BIRD,</a> the US-based Front Line COVID <a href="https://covid19criticalcare.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Critical Care Alliance</a>, or <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/18/doctor-who-advocated-covid-19-therapy-including-ivermectin-applied-for-patent-on-same-unproven-treatment" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Thomas Borody</a> and colleagues in Australia.</p> <p>“It is puzzling that the important and completed ivermectin arm has not reported its results [till now], says Paul Glasziou ,a professor at the <a href="https://iebh.bond.edu.au/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Institute for Evidence Based Healthcare</a> at Bond University, Gold Coast. “The use of preprints to rapidly provide clinicians and policymakers with results is vital for uptake of effective treatments as well as stopping ineffective and potentially dangerous treatments like ivermectin.”</p> <p>When the COVID pandemic hit in the early months of 2020, doctors were helpless to treat the patients dying in overflowing emergency rooms. A number of randomised clinical trials (RCTs) were urgently rolled out to test drugs on the shelf – so-called ‘repurposed drugs’. These included everything from <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(20)32013-4/fulltext" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">HIV drugs</a> to anti-inflammatory medications to tamp down friendly fire from a raging immune system.</p> <p>The fastest and most successful trial – dubbed RECOVERY and based at Oxford –  focused on saving the lives of hospitalised patients whose death rate was 25% or 40% if they needed to be placed on ventilators.</p> <p>In June 2020 RECOVERY posted a <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.22.20137273v1" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">preprint</a> – a paper hosted by a website but yet to be peer reviewed and published in a journal. It reported that the inexpensive steroid dexamethasone could cut the deaths of those on ventilators <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01824-5" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">by a third</a>. The rapid dissemination of the results by preprint is estimated to have saved the lives of thousands of people.</p> <p>Another RECOVERY <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20151852v1" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">preprint</a> also saved lives by reporting that the repurposed malaria and rheumatoid arthritis drug hydroxychloroquine – much feted by Donald Trump – not only failed to help hospitalised patients but appeared to make them worse. “Patients allocated to hydroxychloroquine were less likely to be discharged from hospital alive within 28 days,” the preprint reported.</p> <p>The TOGETHER trial led by Ed Mills at McMaster University in Ontario, Canada, was initiated in <a href="https://www.togethertrial.com/trial-specifications" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">June 2020</a>. It also tested repurposed drugs but focussed earlier, in patients who were still in the first week of their illness. The idea was to find medications that would stop them going to hospital, to contain COVID as the mild-ish disease that was experienced by 90% of patients. Unlike RECOVERY, which sourced patients from British hospitals at the height of their pandemic, the TOGETHER trial sourced its patients from Brazil. This was necessary because the pandemic seems to move in waves and by the time the time RECOVERY started, the first wave in Canada had moved on, leaving few patients to recruit to the study.</p> <p>TOGETHER tested some of the same drugs as RECOVERY for infected people to use at home, including hydroxychloroquine and the HIV drug combination lopinavir/ritonavir. They were not effective, as reported in a paper published in the <em>Journal of the American Medical Association</em> in April 2021.</p> <p>Ivermectin was not included in the initial line-up of repurposed drugs. TOGETHER team member Craig Rayner, a Monash University-based clinical pharmacologist who modelled the effective drug doses for the trial, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/how-a-false-science-cure-became-australia-s-contribution-to-the-pandemic-20211013-p58zp3.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">advised against it</a> since the ivermectin dose required to kill the virus was <a href="https://theconversation.com/ivermectin-is-a-nobel-prize-winning-wonder-drug-but-not-for-covid-19-168449" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">more than 20</a> times the maximum approved dose. That was based on the reports of ivermectin’s virus-killing effects in the test-tube.</p> <p>But by mid 2020, ivermectin had replaced hydroxychloroquine as a popular COVID ‘cure’. Some trials showed it was effective; other didn’t – not a surprising situation in the early stages of testing of a drug. Expert pharmacologists like Andrew McLachlan at the University of Sydney declared a state of clinical ‘equipoise’, meaning the jury was out. Larger, gold standard RCTs were needed. (At the time, it had not yet been revealed that many of the studies showing ivermectin was effective <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/health/covid/data-detectives-dig-into-ivermectin-studies/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">were fraudulent</a>.)</p> <p>Given the situation on the ground, the TOGETHER team decided to include ivermectin in their trial. “We had an obligation,” says Rayner. “We realised the answer was unknown.”</p> <p>The triallists recruited 3515 Brazilian patients from 12 health centres in the state of Minas Gerais. To raise their chances of detecting an ivermectin effect, the patients had to have at least one risk factor for serious disease, such as obesity or diabetes. These recruits were randomly allocated into different arms of the trial to test a number of different repurposed drugs against a placebo. The ivermectin arm treated 679 people and gave 679 people a placebo.</p> <p>Based on what appeared to be positive findings from smaller trials, ivermectin was used at a cumulative dose six times higher than the maximum approved dose – 400 micrograms per kg of body weight per day for three days. The maximum dose that’s prescribed for the parasitic disease strongyloidiasis is a single dose of 200 microgram per kg of body weight. The measurement endpoint for the trial was hospitalisation 28 days after treatment by the drug.</p> <p>By the beginning of August 2021, the researchers had their results. Ivermectin did not reduce the risk of hospitalisation. By contrast the cheap antidepressant drug <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(21)00448-4/fulltext" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">fluvoxamine did</a>, reducing the risk of hospitalisation <a href="https://www.openaccessgovernment.org/fluvoxamine-can-cut-covid-19-hospitalisations-by-30/123301/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">by 30%</a>.</p> <p>So, why did TOGETHER take until the end of March 2022 to deliver the <em>coup de grace </em>for ivermectin? RECOVERY by contrast delivered its verdict for hydroxychloroquine in July 2020, letting the world know it was pointless and dangerous to use it as a treatment for COVID.</p> <div class="newsletter-box"> <div id="wpcf7-f6-p187042-o1" class="wpcf7" dir="ltr" lang="en-US" role="form"> <form class="wpcf7-form mailchimp-ext-0.5.56 resetting spai-bg-prepared" action="/health/covid/jurys-in-for-ivermectin-no-clinical-significance/#wpcf7-f6-p187042-o1" method="post" novalidate="novalidate" data-status="resetting"> <p style="display: none !important;"><span class="wpcf7-form-control-wrap referer-page"><input class="wpcf7-form-control wpcf7-text referer-page spai-bg-prepared" name="referer-page" type="hidden" value="https://cosmosmagazine.com/" data-value="https://cosmosmagazine.com/" aria-invalid="false" /></span></p> <p><!-- Chimpmail extension by Renzo Johnson --></form> </div> </div> <p>One reason is that the TOGETHER trial had a much tougher remit than RECOVERY.</p> <p>RECOVERY tested hospitalised patients, who were easy to find being ‘captive’ in their hospital beds. Their death rate of 25% also made it easy to achieve statistically significant results.</p> <p>By contrast TOGETHER had to rope in the mildly ill from out in the community within seven days of their first symptoms. And given only 10% of them would ever develop severe disease, they needed to be picky, selecting those with a risk factor for severe disease such as obesity or diabetes. “We needed to have the potential to detect an effect,” said Mills.</p> <p>Moreover, while RECOVERY managed to roll out at lightning speed to catch the first COVID wave in the UK, by the time TOGETHER rolled out Canada’s COVID wave had receded, so they had to recruit in Brazil. And here they ran up against the problem of finding people who weren’t already self-medicating with ivermectin. That was partly circumvented by running the trial in Minas Gerais, a state in southeast Brazil where the use was not as widespread, says Rayner.</p> <p>However, once the TOGETHER group overcame all these obstacles, why did they not publish a preprint like RECOVERY?</p> <p>Mills says they decided to go the route of publishing in a major journal and that they did ‘air’ the data in talks.</p> <p>But journalists find it challenging to report on unpublished data since the scientists they rely on to provide independent opinions are loathe to comment on unpublished data.</p> <p>And the airing of the TOGETHER results did not have the necessary force to quell a degree of ivermectin hysteria that was seeing people eat veterinary worming pastes. In late August, the US FDA felt compelled to tweet: “<em>You are not a horse</em>. <em>You are not</em> a cow. Seriously, y’all. Stop it. … Using the Drug ivermectin to treat COVID-19 can be dangerous and even lethal.”</p> <p>Rayner adds they did not expect it would take eight months till publication and were bound not to disclose a publication date or discuss the paper with journalists. “Had we known it would take this long, we might have considered a different route,” he says.</p> <p>Another reason for keeping their data out of the limelight till now is that the TOGETHER scientists’ reward for carefully carrying out these difficult trials has been harassment and threats from ivermectin devotees. “This is not a matter of science but psychology,” says Mills.</p> <p>“It’s not unusual to see a <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/overwhelmed-hate-covid-19-scientists-face-avalanche-abuse-survey-shows" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">death threat</a> in my inbox,” adds Rayner. “I’ve had to change my phone number. It’s pretty traumatising. We’re all feeling that way.”</p> <p>Being under siege has left the researchers media shy.</p> <p>“This report was not something I wanted to get ahead of. I fear what the release of the paper will bring,” says Rayner.</p> <p>The secrecy and drawn-out reporting of ivermectin trials is not limited to the McMasters group. Chris Butler, the leader of the ‘Principle’ ivermectin trial at Oxford, is similarly tight-lipped as is the leader of an NIH trial known as Activ-6.</p> <p>Neither of these groups responded to this journalist’s inquiry as to an expected report date.</p> <p>Perhaps these trials, which are based in the in the UK and US, have also found it difficult to recruit enough patients to get a statistically meaningful result.</p> <p>But their results, based in Western populations, will be important to compare to those of TOGETHER.</p> <p>Because TOGETHER did actually find a small, but not statistically significant effect, of ivermectin on hospitalisation. Could it be a true but tiny signal in the noise? Mills suspects that in some Brazilian patients, ivermectin was actually treating the underlying parasitic infections – and that improved the person’s ability to fight COVID. That’s a theory suggested by <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2790173" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">this recent analysis</a>. If that’s the case, this tiny effect of ivermectin would be restricted to people who are fighting parasitic infections.</p> <p>But we will have to wait – <em>again</em> – for the PRINCIPLE and NIH trials to be sure.</p> <p><!-- Start of tracking content syndication. Please do not remove this section as it allows us to keep track of republished articles --></p> <p><img id="cosmos-post-tracker" style="opacity: 0; height: 1px!important; width: 1px!important; border: 0!important; position: absolute!important; z-index: -1!important;" src="https://syndication.cosmosmagazine.com/?id=187042&amp;title=Jury%E2%80%99s+in+for+ivermectin%3A+%E2%80%9CNo+clinical+significance.%E2%80%9D" width="1" height="1" data-spai-target="src" data-spai-orig="" data-spai-exclude="nocdn" /></p> <p><!-- End of tracking content syndication --></p> <div id="contributors"> <p><em><a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/health/covid/jurys-in-for-ivermectin-no-clinical-significance/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">This article</a> was originally published on <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cosmos Magazine</a> and was written by <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/contributor/elizabeth-finkel" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Elizabeth Finkel</a>. Elizabeth Finkel is editor-at-large of Cosmos.</em></p> <p><em>Image: Getty Images</em></p> </div>

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Why doesn’t the government have a duty of care to children’s futures?

<p dir="ltr">Federal judges <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-60745967" target="_blank" rel="noopener">have deemed</a> that the Australian government doesn’t have a duty of care to protect children from the harms of climate change, overturning last year’s landmark decision.</p> <p dir="ltr">Eight teenagers and an 87-year-old nun convinced Federal Court judges that Susan Ley, the Australian Environment Minister, had a duty of care to protect children from future harm caused by climate change when assessing fossil fuel projects.</p> <p dir="ltr">They <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/the-australian-government-has-a-duty-of-care-to-protect-children-from-climate-harm-court-rules/grhgp8t8y" target="_blank" rel="noopener">initially</a> sought an injunction to stop the expansion of a coal mine in New South Wales, which is expected to add an extra 170 million tonnes of fossil fuels to the atmosphere.</p> <p dir="ltr">However, the injunction wasn’t issued since the judges believed the minister hadn’t yet violated her duty of care.</p> <p dir="ltr">The government appealed the court ruling and all three judges sided with the minister for various reasons, including that there wasn’t “sufficient closeness” between the minister’s decision to approve the mine and “any reasonably foreseeable harm” that comes from it.</p> <p dir="ltr">Despite the initial decision being successfully challenged, the teens could still take the case to the country’s highest court.</p> <p dir="ltr">“Today’s ruling leaves us devastated, but it will not deter us in our fight for climate justice,” 17-year-old Anjali Sharma said in a statement released by the teenagers’ lawyers in mid-March.</p> <p dir="ltr">15-year-old Izzy Raj-Seppings, another of the teens involved in the case, said their lawyers would review the judgement, and that “we may have more to say in the coming weeks”.</p> <p dir="ltr">“While today’s judgement did not go our way, there is still much to celebrate. The court accepted that young people will bear the brunt of the impacts of the climate crisis.”</p> <p><span id="docs-internal-guid-92550660-7fff-c330-ccab-bb471022c2e5"></span></p> <p dir="ltr"><em>Image: BBC News</em></p>

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Prince Andrew demands "trial by jury"

<p>As Prince Andrew continues to fight against a sexual assault lawsuit, he has demanded a "trial by jury" to clear his name. </p> <p>New York court documents show that Prince Andrew has denied all allegations against him and <span>“hereby demands a trial by jury on all causes of action asserted in the complaint”.</span></p> <p>The civil sex assault suit was brought about by Virginia Giuffre, 38, who has accused the royal of forcing her to sleep with him more than 20 years ago at the home of convicted sex trafficker Ghislaine Maxwell. </p> <p>In an 11-page document, Prince Andrew's lawyers responded to Ms Giuffre's allegations, saying the Duke denies any allegation that he sexually abused Ms Giuffre when she was under 18 years of age.</p> <p>The document, which was submitted to the <span>United States District Court for the Southern District of New York, sets out a series of defences “without assuming the burden of proof, and expressly denying any and all wrongdoing”.</span></p> <p><span>The Duke's defence also claims that the case should be dismissed because Ms Giuffre is a permanent resident of Australia and that by entering into the 2009 agreement with Jeffrey Epstein she “waived the claims now asserted in the complaint”.</span></p> <p><span>After Judge Lewis Kaplan denied his motion to dismiss the civil complaint, Prince Andrew was previously thought to be seeking an out-of-court settlement with Ms Giuffre for an estimated $18 million: the amount he got from selling his chalet in Switzerland. </span></p> <p><em>Image credits: Getty Images </em></p>

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Ghislaine Maxwell conviction in jeopardy over juror's admission

<p>After a highly publicised trial that saw Ghislaine Maxwell convicted for sex-trafficking, the guilty verdict is now in jeopardy. </p> <p>After the trial ended, a juror made comments to the media about how discussing their own experience with sexual abuse with the other jurors helped them reach a guilty verdict, and ultimately affected the jury's deliberations. </p> <p>Both prosecutors and defense attorneys raised concerns over this revelation, as experts told <a rel="noopener" href="https://www.insider.com/ghislaine-maxwell-jurors-could-face-charges-if-lied-under-oath-2022-1" target="_blank">Insider</a> that it's possible Maxwell's conviction could be thrown out as a result of the juror's comments to the media. </p> <p>It is also possible that the juror in question could face legal consequences such as perjury charges, if US District Judge Alison Nathan determines he was untruthful during the pre-trial procedure. </p> <p>The <span>voir dire is the procedure that happens before a trial commences to determine if each prospective juror is suitable to serve objectively. </span></p> <p><span>The juror told <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/some-ghislaine-maxwell-jurors-initially-doubted-accusers-juror-says-2022-01-05/">Reuters</a> that they "flew through" the pre-trial questionnaire and didn't recall being asked about any previous experience with sexual assault, as they said they would've answered the question honestly. </span></p> <p><span>However, court records show that the questionnaire asked all prospective Maxwell jurors, "Have you or a friend or family member ever been the victim of sexual harassment, sexual abuse or sexual assault?"</span></p> <p><span>Following this revelation, a second juror from the Maxwell trial came forward and said they also shared their experiences of sexual assault in the jury deliberations, and potentially swaying the guilty verdict. </span></p> <p><span>In the hours after the news of the jurors' own experiences came to light, Ghislaine Maxwell's lawyers have called for a retrial on her case. </span></p> <p><span>Maxwell was found guilty on five out of six sex-trafficking and conspiracy counts, and is facing up to 65 years in jail.</span></p> <p><span>Ghislaine Maxwell was arrested in July 2020 after her involvement with disgraced late financier Jeffrey Epstein came to light. </span></p> <p><em>Image credits: Getty Images </em></p>

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