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Australians are reading less than other countries, a new report shows. Why?

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/katya-johanson-425719">Katya Johanson</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/edith-cowan-university-720">Edith Cowan University</a> Recent international research shows Australians are buying and reading fewer books than people in many other countries. But why? A <a href="https://risebookselling.eu/consumer-behaviour">report</a> by the European and International Book Federation found that only 64% of Australians bought a book in the past year, compared to an average 72% of people across 19 countries. Similarly, 80% of Australians read a book in the past year, slightly below the international average of 85%. These differences are slim, but as book buyers and readers, we are among the lowest in the sample, alongside Aotearoa New Zealand, Finland, Latvia and the United States. The number of people who had read a book in the past year in Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Ireland all came in at over 90%. Local research also suggests reading rates in Australia are falling. Back in 2017, a Macquarie University study found 92% of us read books at least once in the previous year. By 2021, in the <a href="https://australiareads.org.au/research/the-national-reading-survey/">Australia Reads national survey</a> that figure had dropped to 75%. What’s behind these numbers? Price might be less of a factor than we often assume – and surprisingly, Australia’s dependence on cars could play a role. International examples showing how other countries protect and value their book cultures – from government policies to counter the strength of Amazon to public holidays for poets – suggest measures to actively boost our own could help. <h2>The price myth</h2> There’s a general perception that books cost too much in Australia. But they’re not necessarily more expensive here than elsewhere. Competition from online retailers like Amazon and increases in production costs globally <a href="https://www.ibisworld.com/au/industry/book-publishing/171/">have levelled prices internationally</a>. In fact, Australians often pay similar or less for books than readers in Canada, New Zealand and the US. Tim Winton’s new novel, <a href="https://theconversation.com/tim-winton-goes-cli-fi-his-dystopian-novel-juice-breaks-new-ground-to-face-the-climate-emergency-238769">Juice</a>, for example, has an Australian recommended retail price of A$49.99. It’s almost exactly the same price in Aotearoa New Zealand (A$49.81) and costs more in Canada (A$54.59). In the US, Juice is A$44.02, and in the UK, it’s A$43.07. While UK book prices are lower, this is mainly because books there don’t attract sales tax. The UK <a href="https://www.accountingfirms.co.uk/blog/are-books-vat-exempt/#:%7E:text=In%20the%20UK%2C%20books%20are,to%20most%20goods%20and%20services">made books exempt</a> from its value-added tax (VAT) applied to most goods and services – a deliberate decision to make reading more affordable. Pauline MacLeod, the children’s and young adult literature specialist at Brisbane’s Riverbend Books, told me children’s publishers are “trying hard to keep local books priced between $22.99 and $25.99”. Still, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australian-workers-true-cost-of-living-has-climbed-far-faster-than-weve-been-told-221590">in the current cost of living squeeze</a> books are a discretionary spend some cannot afford. <h2>Public transport is good for reading</h2> Interestingly, countries where <a href="https://www.statista.com/topics/8282/rail-passenger-transport-in-europe/#statisticChapter">more people use public transport</a> – like the UK, France, Germany and Spain – tend to have higher reading rates. It’s easier to read a book on a train than in a car, and these countries often have bookshops in train stations, creating a culture of reading while commuting. In contrast, car-dependent countries like Australia, the US and Aotearoa New Zealand show lower reading rates. Our reliance on cars might explain why audiobooks are more popular in Australia than in many other countries. <h2>A holiday for a poet</h2> In Ireland, where 91% of people have read a book in the past 12 months, there is a strong cultural history of storytelling. Reading is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/article/2024/aug/20/we-all-read-like-hell-how-ireland-became-the-worlds-literary-powerhouse">supported by</a> an arts council providing grants and bursaries, and a healthy ecosystem of literary festivals and magazines, public libraries and bookshops. Australia has many of these things, but Ireland also significantly supports writers, with a tax exemption on artists’ income up to €50,000 (approximately A$81,500) and a basic-income pilot scheme granting 2,000 artists €325 (approximately A$530) a week. In France, where the government <a href="https://www.culture.gouv.fr/en/regions/drac-grand-est/services/idc/reading-book/Support-for-the-book-economy">actively protects its reading culture</a>, 88% of people have read a book in the past 12 months. In 2022, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/23/france-minimum-book-delivery-fee-amazon">France introduced a law</a> to make French bookshops more competitive with online retailers like Amazon which often offer free delivery of books. By setting a minimum delivery fee for all online book orders of less than €35 (around A$57), the government aims to level the playing field for local booksellers. Perhaps unsurprisingly, only 5% of French people buy all their books online (as opposed to 12% in Australia). Australia has public holidays dedicated to sports, like the Melbourne Cup and the AFL Grand Final (both in Victoria). In Portugal, a national holiday, Portugal Day, commemorates the death of poet <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Luis-de-Camoes">Luís de Camões</a>, considered Portugal’s greatest. While 85% of Portuguese people have read a book in the past 12 months (exactly the international average), they consider reading as one of their hobbies (37%) and have bought a book in the past year (76%) at rates above the international average. Interestingly, just 32% of Australians said they consider reading a hobby, compared to 44% in Spain and 42% in the UK. Families, the education system and the media are also all key to inculcating this culture of reading, as is a strong local publishing industry. <h2>The way forward</h2> Local booksellers report declining reading rates in Australia, too. Robbie Egan, CEO of Australia’s peak bookselling industry body, BookPeople, told me: “The competition for eyeballs is real and it is fierce, and consumer discretionary dollars are scarce”. Industry leaders like Egan suggest we need a national campaign to promote the benefit of reading. We know from local research that <a href="https://www.bookpeople.org.au/images/BookPeople_Papers_Imagination.pdf">Australians value books and storytelling</a>. With increasing competition from other forms of entertainment and tighter household budgets, encouraging a stronger reading culture may be more important than ever.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/243272/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/katya-johanson-425719">Katya Johanson</a>, Professor of Publishing and Audience Studies, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/edith-cowan-university-720">Edith Cowan University</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australians-are-reading-less-than-other-countries-a-new-report-shows-why-243272">original article</a>. </div>

Books

Australian Word of the Year announced

Cost-of-living pressures and anger at the nation-wide supermarket duopoly have influenced the Australian Word of the Year for 2024. The Australian National Dictionary Centre, based at the Australian National University, has chosen "Colesworth": a blended word referencing the country's largest supermarket chains, Coles and Woolworths. Senior Researcher Mark Gwynn said the word is almost exclusively used in negative contexts, with many calling out the power held by both supermarket giants. Although the word itself has been circulated for several years, its use has skyrocketed over the past 12 months, according to Gwynn. "Aussies walk out of the supermarket with less after paying more, but then hear news of massive profits in the supermarket sector. And with official investigations into some of the pricing practices at Australia's two largest supermarkets, it's no wonder that ordinary shoppers have become cynical," he said. "The blend of the supermarket names Coles and Woolworths into Colesworth provides a succinct way of referring to both supermarkets while at the same time hinting at the negative aspects of what is perceived as an unfair duopoly." Other shortlisted words include a mix of terms referencing politics, tax, and climate change. "Breaking" also made the shortlist, following the iconic performance by Australian artist RayGun at the Paris Olympic Games, with words included "climate trigger," "ute tax," and "YIMBY" (Yes In My Backyard). Image credits: Shutterstock

Books

"Only in Australia": Couple finds koala asleep in their bed

A couple from Adelaide have got the shock of their lives when they returned home to find a koala asleep in their bed. Francielle Dias Rufino told 9News that when her and her husband Brunno they found the marsupial catching up on sleep in their bed, just metres away from where their dog was sleeping too. Francielle, who moved to Australia from Brazil with her husband two-and-a-half years ago, said she screamed out to her husband in Portuguese when she found the furry intruder. "I was so nervous that I forgot my English," she said. She said their dachshund cross beagle was asleep in his dog bed, metres from the sleeping koala, adding, "He made a new friend!" Francielle said she believed the koala entered the house via the doggy door, as "The doors and the windows were locked. Only in Australia!" <blockquote class="instagram-media" style="background: #FFF; border: 0; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: 0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width: 540px; min-width: 326px; padding: 0; width: calc(100% - 2px);" data-instgrm-permalink="https://www.instagram.com/reel/DCTVyjfgoKz/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" data-instgrm-version="14"> <div style="padding: 16px;"> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; align-items: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 40px; margin-right: 14px; width: 40px;"> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 100px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 60px;"> </div> </div> </div> <div style="padding: 19% 0;"> </div> <div style="display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0 auto 12px; width: 50px;"> </div> <div style="padding-top: 8px;"> <div style="color: #3897f0; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 550; line-height: 18px;">View this post on Instagram</div> </div> <div style="padding: 12.5% 0;"> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; margin-bottom: 14px; align-items: center;"> <div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(0px) translateY(7px);"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; height: 12.5px; transform: rotate(-45deg) translateX(3px) translateY(1px); width: 12.5px; flex-grow: 0; margin-right: 14px; margin-left: 2px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(9px) translateY(-18px);"> </div> </div> <div style="margin-left: 8px;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 20px; width: 20px;"> </div> <div style="width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 2px solid transparent; border-left: 6px solid #f4f4f4; border-bottom: 2px solid transparent; transform: translateX(16px) translateY(-4px) rotate(30deg);"> </div> </div> <div style="margin-left: auto;"> <div style="width: 0px; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-right: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(16px);"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; flex-grow: 0; height: 12px; width: 16px; transform: translateY(-4px);"> </div> <div style="width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-left: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(-4px) translateX(8px);"> </div> </div> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 24px;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 224px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 144px;"> </div> </div> <p style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 8px; overflow: hidden; padding: 8px 0 7px; text-align: center; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;"><a style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.instagram.com/reel/DCTVyjfgoKz/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A post shared by 7NEWS Adelaide (@7newsadelaide)</a> </div> </blockquote> In a video taken by Rufino, the koala glanced at the couple before climbing up to a bedside table and returning to the comfy bed when they tried to move the animal outside. When they tried calling animal rescue hotlines only to be found they weren't open at the late hour, Brunno tried to usher the koala outside with a blanket, prompting the sleepy animal to try and bite him. "Or maybe he wasn't happy because we woke him up," Rufino laughed. She said she was a lover of the animals and the visit was "a very nice surprise". "He was so cute. I love koalas," she said. "He can come back anytime he likes." Image credits: Nine

Family & Pets

Readers response: What advice would you give someone visiting Australia?

We asked our readers what advice they would give to someone travelling to Australia, including where tourists need to see and what hidden gems cannot be missed. Here's what they said. Peggy Rice - Respect our rules, the outback needs to be researched, swim between flags, don't swim with crocodiles. It's the best country in the world, let's keep it that way. Also do yourself a favour and put Tasmania on your list of beauty. Kay L Bayly - Number 1 advice! Check distances between desired destinations. It is a much bigger country than most people understand. Michael Pender - Bring a sense of humour. Toni Stewart - You will need a year at least to see all the different areas from desert, scrub, rainforest, cities, beaches, country side fabulous little towns and lots of festivals. Maureen Prince - We don’t have Kangaroos running the streets. Koalas are not in everybody's back yard trees. Whilst we do have snakes you’d be very unfortunate if you were to come across a venomous one. We don’t all go around saying “Good day mate”. Our scenery is incredible. Our food is superb and, best of all, we have good friends who do say “Good day mate”. Tina Shaw - Leave preconceptions at customs. See who we are and you'll have a fantastic time. Dianne Savage - Put Tasmania on your must do list. Margaret Higgs - Use sunscreen, wear a hat, drink lots of fluids. Cheryl Anne - Don't assume you can cover the whole country in 6 weeks. Sarah Hayse-Gregson - Obey the beach culture. The flags, lifesavers are there for a reason. If a sign says, “beach closed” there’s no one to assist you if you get into difficulty. Our lifesavers are volunteers, don’t forget that. They give up their free time to monitor the beaches and are highly trained. Never turn your back to the sea. Ann Lusby - Watch out for drop bears. Image credits: Shutterstock

Domestic Travel

Virgin Australia passenger denied travel over tiny passport detail

Renee Reader, 30, flew to Melbourne from the Gold Coast on Monday and had her passport checked several times by Virgin Australia staff. It wasn't until she was in the final boarding queue to Bali when staff spotted one tiny detail in her passport. "I got through security and customs. It wasn't until I was actually boarding the flight and I handed over my boarding pass and passport that the staff weren't sure about my passport," she told Yahoo News Australia. Staff then started taking photos of her passport and she was asked to step aside. When asked what the issue was, she was told there was a "yellow stain" on her passport identification page. It wasn't long before she received the "heartbreaking" news, with staff telling her: "You're not going to Bali." Although she tried to plead her case, airline staff stood firm on their decision, and said Renee would need to be escorted out of the airport by security. "I said, 'I don't think that's quite necessary. I'm not a criminal — It's a passport with a watermark on it'," she recalled, but was she was escorted anyways. While the airline paid for Renee's flight back to the Gold Coast, and acknowledged that they should've flagged the passport damage earlier into her journey, she still lost the money for her return flight tickets to Bali which cost around $200. "My message to everyone is to triple-check your passport and make sure that it is in immaculate condition, because they are getting a lot stricter, and I would never want this to happen to anyone else," she said. "I've travelled all over Europe, I've been to Bali with it [the mark] twice... I was in Bali just in July... it was absolutely heartbreaking," she said. A Virgin Australia spokesperson told Yahoo News that staff are required to flag any passport issues to prevent passengers from being refused entry at their intended destination. "When a guest presents for check-in for an international flight, Virgin Australia team members are required to ensure they have the necessary travel documentation and that the documents are in suitable condition," the spokesperson said. Image: TikTok/ Yahoo News

Travel Trouble

How are racehorses really treated in the ‘sport of kings’?

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/cathrynne-henshall-572585">Cathrynne Henshall</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/charles-sturt-university-849">Charles Sturt University</a> It’s the time of year when shiny horses and colourful clothing fill our screens – the <a href="https://www.racing.com/spring-racing">Spring Racing Carnival</a>, which includes high profile races like The Everest, Melbourne Cup and Cox Plate. It’s also the time of year when questions are asked about the welfare of racehorses that compete in the so-called “<a href="https://www.amnh.org/exhibitions/horse/how-we-shaped-horses-how-horses-shaped-us/sport/sport-of-kings#:%7E:text=Thoroughbred%20racing%20began%20around%20300,Asia%2C%20and%20the%20Middle%20East.">sport of kings</a>”. Previously, <a href="https://www.news.com.au/sport/superracing/punters-life/how-many-horses-have-died-in-the-melbourne-cup-the-real-numbers/news-story/5f7e29011a7fbf3da9e0611e902d1ee6">high profile deaths during races</a>, the <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0015622">use of whips</a> and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-17/making-a-killing/6127124">what happens to horses after racing</a> have been the focus of community concern. But recently, as we’ve come to know more about what makes a <a href="https://www.worldhorsewelfare.org/advice/welfare-wednesdays/how-to-provide-a-good-life-for-horses-friends-freedom-and-forage">good life for a horse</a>, questions are being raised about the daily lives of racehorses. Industry participants will point to the <a href="https://www.mamamia.com.au/dont-tell-me-the-horse-racing-industry-doesnt-care/">high level care</a> that racehorses receive – comfortable stables, specially formulated diets, the latest vet treatments and added extras such as massages and swimming sessions. But does this care translate into good welfare? <h2>The theory of ‘telos’</h2> Firstly, a quick primer on the difference between care and welfare. Care includes all the things that make sure racehorses get fit, stay fit and stay healthy. This care helps maximise the chance a horse will win races. Welfare is the animal’s subjective or individual experience of its life – <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33066335/">how it feels</a> – and there are a number of ways to assess this. One way is the concept of “telos”, originally developed by Ancient Greek philosopher <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/aristotle-causality/">Aristotle</a>. Telos is a <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10806-012-9422-y">species’ anatomical, physiological, behavioural and cognitive characteristics</a> that have been shaped by millions of years of evolution. Telos helps us to identify what matters to animals – their behavioural, psychological and physiological needs. So to consider if racehorse care actually translates to good welfare, we can assess how closely it provides the animal with the things that matter to them, based on their telos. Equine telos involves living in groups, forming long-lived social relationships, grazing fibrous plants and being on the move for up to 18 hours a day, as well as staying safe by sensing danger and then moving away. It also involves living in variable environments to solve challenges, learn, engage in curiosity and play. Let’s compare that to the daily life of a racehorse. <h2>Movement and feeding</h2> Firstly, the vast majority of racehorses live in stables – sometimes up to 23 hours a day. <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17970632/">Multiple studies</a> have found continuous stabling harms horse welfare. Stables significantly restrict opportunities for voluntary movement, and studies show stabled horses spend <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37813129/">the majority of the time inactive</a>. Even though stables house horses communally, most designs limit horses’ opportunities for social interaction. Thirdly, there’s little for a horse to do in a stable other than eat, stand, drink or lie, and they often develop <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34670688/">abnormal behaviours</a> that are associated with stress. These are never seen in free-ranging horses. When racehorses do get to move, they have little say over how far, how fast and for how long they move. The kinds of physical exercise racehorses do are both significantly shorter in duration and at much higher speeds than horses voluntarily choose. It’s those speeds that place them at <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17910268/">risk of suffering a serious injury</a>. What about diet? Although a lot of time and effort is spent ensuring racehorses enjoy high quality diets, they are mostly comprised of concentrated energy sources such as grains, rather the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10135103/">fibre horses evolved to eat</a>. Horses are <a href="https://madbarn.com/slow-feeders-for-horses/#:%7E:text=Horses%20are%20trickle%20feeders%20that,to%2025%20miles%20per%20day.">trickle feeders</a> (grazers), with small stomachs that continuously secrete digestive juices. In the wild, grazing keeps those stomachs full, which prevents the stomach lining from being damaged by digestive acids. In comparison, racehorses often consume their food very quickly – instead of spending up to 75% of their day eating, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780702026348500137">they spend only 33%</a>. This means their stomachs are empty for most of the day, which is why up to <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37048517/">65% will get painful gastric ulcers</a>. And having to wait to be fed rather than eating when hungry, as happens in free-ranging horses, <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2615/3/3/663">can lead to frustration</a>. <h2>Other difficulties</h2> Racehorses <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/does-whipping-hurt-race-horses-20211102-p595br.html">may be whipped</a>, and <a href="https://beva.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.2042-3306.1982.tb02389.x">more than 50% </a> will experience some form of musculoskeletal injury during racing, of which between <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2615/11/2/270">7-49% are fatal</a>. Social relationships, in the limited form possible in a racing stable, are also frequently disrupted because horse populations are highly transient due to spelling, <a href="https://theconversation.com/black-caviars-death-has-prompted-uncomfortable-questions-about-how-champion-mares-spend-their-retirement-237039">retirement</a> or even just going to the races. So even if two horses are able to form a relationship of sorts, chances are one will be taken away. <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=henshall+stress+repeated&size=200">Separation distress is a significant stressor</a> for horses. Then there’s the gear that’s used to control them. Horses, like most animal species, escape and avoid painful stimuli. However, in racing (and many other equestrian activties) it is <a href="https://www.racingnsw.com.au/wp-content/uploads/NSWRules.pdf">mandatory to use</a> “bits” to control horses’ behaviour during riding and handling. Bits work by causing uncomfortable pressure and pain and may lead to mouth injuries. Studies have shown many people don’t understand how <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/08927936.2023.2166713#abstract">to minimise the harm they can cause</a>. In addition, people also vary widely in their ability to read and <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2615/9/12/1124">interpret behavioural responses to stress</a>. So, racehorses may be repeatedly exposed to pain from bits and perform a range of behaviours to try to escape that pain, like bolting, mouth opening or head tossing. To remedy this, additional items of restrictive equipment, such as <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34056705/">tongue ties</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/dressing-up-for-melbourne-cup-day-from-a-racehorse-point-of-view-104771">nosebands, lugging bits or bit burs</a> may be used to control the horse. Racehorses frequently show signs of difficulty coping with the stressors of racing life, including “going off their feed”, aggression towards handlers, becoming hard to control when ridden and a range of stress behaviours and health issues, <a href="https://avmajournals.avma.org/downloadpdf/view/journals/javma/260/15/javma.22.08.0358.pdf">such as bleeding from the lungs</a>. <h2>What about welfare?</h2> Racehorse care is often directed towards managing issues that are the direct result of the demands of the racing environment. Fancy stables and aqua sessions are not important to horses, and may even cause harm. What matters to horses are opportunities to make meaningful choices, such as the freedom to move, form friendships and graze for the majority of the day. Current racing industry practices often deny horses the chance to make these choices. There’s no doubt people in racing care deeply about their horses. But to experience good welfare during racing, racehorses need more than just good care.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/240998/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/cathrynne-henshall-572585">Cathrynne Henshall</a>, Post-doctoral Fellow, School of Agricultural, Environmental and Veterinary Sciences, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/charles-sturt-university-849">Charles Sturt University</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-are-racehorses-really-treated-in-the-sport-of-kings-240998">original article</a>. </div>

Family & Pets

The Voice 2025 coaches line-up leaked

The Voice Australia appears set to have a major cast shake up, following Guy Sebastian's shock <a href="https://www.oversixty.com.au/entertainment/music/guy-sebastian-drops-bombshell-news" target="_blank" rel="noopener">departure</a> from the show after six years. An insider told Yahoo Lifestyle that current coaches Kate Miller-Heidke and Adam Lambert are also saying goodbye to the show. Channel Seven is said to be in the final stages of locking their new line-up, which includes former fan favourites like Keith Urban. “The line-up that Channel Seven wants is Keith Urban, Jessica Mauboy, Ronan Keating and LeAnn Rimes,” the source told Yahoo Lifestyle. “They’ve all been on the show before and conversations had started a few months back.” Urban last appeared on the singing competition as coach in 2022, and fans were overjoyed when he appeared as a guest earlier this year. "Keith was asked about returning when he recorded a performance for the grand finale and he sounded open to the idea - as long as it works with his wife Nicole Kidman's plans to be back in Australia at the same time," the insider said. The source also said that US singer Rimes is likely to return as well. "In the lead-up to this year’s finale, LeAnn's management kept talking about the next series and what she plans to do differently," they said. “LeAnn was clear about her ambition to return next year and Channel Seven are keen to have her back after her artist won.” Jessica Mauboy, who was coach for the show from 2021 to 2023, left the series this year to focus on her music and go on tour, but Channel Seven are also keen to welcome her back. “There were always plans to bring Jess back at some point and viewers really missed her contribution this season," the insider said. “The conversation about Jess had been on the cards with or without Guy. It seemed the network was already looking at flipping Kate Miller-Heidke, who seemed a little out of place on the show." As for Ronan Keating, who was last seen on the show in 2016, the source said he was keen to appear on the Australian version of the show again. Channel Seven is expected to officially announce the 2025 lineup for The Voice Australia at their upcoming Upfront event this month. “One thing is for sure The Voice Australia will go on without Guy Sebastian and 2025 looks set to have one of the best line-ups without him." Images: Channel Seven

Hunt for Australia's first Golden Bachelor begins

While former Sunrise host Samantha Armytage has been confirmed to host Nine's new reality series The Golden Bachelor, there are still a few major roles to fill. The bachelor and all the women needed for the series are yet to be found, but one well-known businessman is believed to be a leading contender for the show. “We are looking for Australia’s first Golden Bachelor and many incredible women who want to find love again,” read the official casting website. Nine are looking for people aged between 60 and 75 years old who are “looking for the last great love” of their life, live in Australia and are single. “Do you know someone in their golden years who deserves one more shot at their happily ever after?” the casting notice read. According to TV Blackbox expert Steve Molk, “Mark Bouris is being touted as their guy.” Bouris, 68, is a podcaster for Straight Talk and a former host of Nine's The Celebrity Apprentice. Molk added that it's not uncommon for a network to create buzz with the announcement “in the hope it will help shake the trees for prospective applicants to flock and submit their audition”. Although Nine has yet to confirm their broadcast date, Molk believes that it's likely to air mid next year. “This gives them time to cast and film while still showing partners why they would want to drop their cash with Nine." Armytage said the Australian version of the show has “got a different spin”. “This is for people who are looking for love again, who’ve got some miles on their tyres and are ready to fall in love again,” she told Nine's Today on October 29. “These are people with life experience. There’s going to be some great stories here, some kind of sad stories in some. “We’re looking for a happy fairytale ending.” Image: Nine

Wheel of Fortune star weds in lavish ceremony

Sophie Falkiner has tied the knot with Stephen Wood in a lavish ceremony in Sydney's Northern Beaches. The Wheel of Fortune presenter, 51, looked stunning in a white strapless gown with beading on the corset. She had her hair in Hollywood waves and completed the look with a pop of red lipstick. The groom complimented her in a classic tux with a white rose pinned to the lapel. The ceremony took place at Pasadena, a restaurant on Sydney's Northern Beaches, decorated with pink and white flowers that matched the pink velvet chairs and white draping on the ceiling. The couple said "I do" on the waterfront at Church Point, with a flower arch behind them. Friends congratulated the bride and groom on social media. "The most beautiful happy wedding of @sophie_falkiner and Steve, congratulations to a gorgeous couple and family," wrote entrepreneur, Jose Bryce Smith. "THE most beautiful wedding ever. The love, warmth, beauty, talent, company, location… and my favourite part, the speeches! Enchanting, elegant and full of heart, just like our @sophie_falkiner. Congratulations Sophie and Stephen! May your joy and happiness only multiply!" wrote digital creator, Alina Rose. The couple got engaged two years ago after Wood popped the question while they were holidaying in Queensland's idyllic Whitsunday Islands. They met after Falkiner's divorce from radio executive Tony Thomas after 14 years of marriage and they share children Bella, 17, and Jack, 14. Falkiner described how "easy" her new relationship was, saying: "I think when you meet the right person it's easy. There's a comradery, a friendship." Images: Instagram

Relationships

"You are incredible": The Voice 2024 winner revealed

In a thrilling conclusion to The Voice's 13th season, Reuben de Melo from Team LeAnn emerged as the winner after the public votes wrapped up on Sunday night. The finale saw Annie Jones, Skÿe, Reuben and Jaedyn Randell each perform a duet with their coach and then a solo number. Reuben sang a stirring rendition of the Coldplay ballad Fix You with his coach. He then performed House of the Rising Sun by The Animals, a rendition which his coach described as "insane". The FIFO worker and father of three has previously said that winning The Voice and taking home the 100k grand prize would allow him to get out of the minds and spend more time with his family. “I never thought I’d get this far, this is crazy," Reuben said of his win, which also comes with a music masterclass and industry recording development package. “I’m so proud," LeAnn said. "You deserve every bit of this moment and I’m so honoured that I could be on this journey with you. You are incredible." LeAnne also explained why she'd taken to Reuben since his first blind audition, even using her "Ultimate Block" tool to stop the other coaches from snagging him for their teams. “I knew as soon as he opened his mouth, and I heard him sing. There was just so much feeling there. There was no way I was letting any of the other coaches get to him before I did,” she said. Earlier in the night, Skÿe from Team Guy, who was another strong contender, hit the stage with the Goo Goo Dolls' iconic song Iris and then sang Against All Odds by Phil Collins as his duet with Guy Sebastian. Annie Jones sang Youngblood by 5SOS as her solo and Barracuda by Heart for her duet with Adam Lambert, while Jaedyn performed Empire of the Sun's Walking on a Dream as a duet with Kate-Miller Heidke and then Snow Angel by Renee Rapp. Image: Seven

Music

Olympic champion inducted to Sport Australia Hall of Fame

Olympic gold medallist Sally Pearson and surfing legend Mick Fanning have joined the most elite group of Australian sportspeople, after being inducted to the Sport Australia Hall of Fame (SAHOF). Pearson is one of only nine Australian women to win an Olympic track and field gold medal, winning her first gold in London 2012. She won a silver medal in 2008 for the 100m hurdles, and has World Championship success in 2011 and 2017. She is also the first Australian to be named World Athlete of the year, and won the SAHOF’s “The Don” Award twice. Pearson said it was “surreal” to be included in such esteemed company, including the likes of Cathy Freeman, her childhood hero. “I don’t think it’s really sunk in. It’s so surreal. It feels like it just happens to people you see on TV,” she said. “I still feel like I’m watching the Sydney Olympics and watching Cathy Freeman run. When Steve Hooker won gold in Beijing I was sitting on the sidelines. “Even though I won silver, I was thinking, this is really cool. I’m watching this person, this athlete, just doing amazing things. It’s a bizarre feeling that I’m one of those people now.” Surfing legend Mick Fanning, who is already a member of the World Surfers’ Hall of Fame and Australian Surfing Hall of Fame and said he was pretty “flabbergasted” to be elevated into the SAHOF. “Australia produces so many incredible sporting stars and to be honoured as one of those, among the greats, I’m pretty flabbergasted, to be honest,” he said. “It’s not something that we ever look for when we’re doing our sport, but to be acknowledged later in life is very special and I’m very honoured to be able to share it with people who have supported me. “I wasn’t the most talented person, I wasn’t the most gifted, I didn’t have the most money or anything like that, but I just gave it my all.’’ Fanning enters as a three-time world champion for surfing. Motorsport great Mark Skaife, former Kookaburras’ captain Mark Knowles, lawn bowls trailblazer Karen Murphy and dual-sport Paralympics champion Liesl Tesch are some of the other 2024 inductees. Image: Colorsport/ Shutterstock Editorial

Body

Aussie drivers warned over commonly ignored road rule

Aussie drivers are being reminded to follow simple road rules and etiquette when driving on a highway, with one often ignored rule costing drivers hundreds. Police are fining drivers caught driving in the right lane on a highway without overtaking anyone. A Victorian man was fined $198 and two demerit points over the weekend "after travelling 3km in the right-hand lane and passing no one,” Senior Sergeant Aaron Riches told the Geelong Advertiser. Penalties also apply in other states and territories, including NSW where the penalty can be as much as $410. Victoria Police told Yahoo News Australia that this wasn't part of a crackdown, as they are always monitoring roads to ensure drivers are following the road rules. "Police are out and about every day, making sure people are following the road rules. Road safety is a priority for police, and we will continue to focus our efforts on ensuring those using the roads are safe," a spokesperson said. According to VicRoads, when travelling on a multi-lane road with a speed limit of over 80km/h, drivers must keep out of the right lane unless they are overtaking, turning right or if all lanes are congested. In NSW a P-plater was caught "disobeying" this rule and copped a $410 fine. Sydney lawyer Avinash Singh of Astor Legal said some drivers get of easy, with penalties actually reaching $2,200. "On a road where there is a speed limit of more than 80km/h, you must not drive in the right lane, unless you're overtaking," he said. Although unlikely, "you can incur a fine of up to $2,200 for disobeying this rule," he added. NSW Police also reminded drivers in August against ignoring "keep left signs unless overtaking" as travelling in the right lane has resulted in "an increase in collisions involving drivers overtaking other vehicles". Images: NSW Police Highway Patrol

Travel Trouble

Australia’s fertility rate has reached a record low. What might that mean for the economy?

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jonathan-boymal-392960">Jonathan Boymal</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/rmit-university-1063">RMIT University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ashton-de-silva-3066">Ashton De Silva</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/rmit-university-1063">RMIT University</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sarah-sinclair-385470">Sarah Sinclair</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/rmit-university-1063">RMIT University</a> Australia’s fertility rate has fallen to a new <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/births-australia/latest-release">record low</a> of 1.5 babies per woman. That’s well below the “<a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/7834459/#:%7E:text=PIP%3A%20Replacement%20level%20fertility%20is,of%202.1%20children%20per%20woman.">replacement rate</a>” of 2.1 needed to sustain a country’s population. On face value, it might not seem like a big deal. But we can’t afford to ignore this issue. The health of an economy is deeply intertwined with the size and structure of its population. Australians simply aren’t having as many babies as they used to, raising some serious questions about how we can maintain our country’s workforce, sustain economic growth and fund important services. So what’s going on with fertility rates here and around the world, and what might it mean for the future of our economy? What can we do about it? <h2>Are lower birth rates always a problem?</h2> Falling fertility rates can actually have some <a href="https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/2007/MR1274.pdf">short-term benefits</a>. Having fewer dependent young people in an economy can increase workforce participation, as well as boost savings and wealth. Smaller populations can also benefit from <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0927537112000620.">increased investment</a> per person in education and health. But the picture gets more complex in the long term, and less rosy. An ageing population can strain pensions, health care and social services. This can hinder economic growth, unless it’s <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21302431/">offset by increased productivity</a>. Other scholars have <a href="https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/publications/end-economic-growth-unintended-consequences-declining-population">warned</a> that a falling population could stifle innovation, with fewer young people meaning fewer breakthrough ideas. <h2>A global phenomenon</h2> The trend towards women having fewer children is not unique to Australia. The global fertility rate has dropped over the past couple of decades, from 2.7 babies per woman in 2000 to <a href="https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/WLD/world/fertility-rate">2.4 in 2023</a>. However, the distribution is not evenly spread. In 2021, 29% of the world’s babies were born in sub-Saharan Africa. This is projected to <a href="https://www.healthdata.org/news-events/newsroom/news-releases/lancet-dramatic-declines-global-fertility-rates-set-transform">rise to 54% by 2100</a>. There’s also a <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/psp.2720">regional-urban divide</a>. Childbearing is often delayed in urban areas and late fertility is more common in cities. In Australia, we see <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/births-australia/latest-release#data-downloads">higher fertility rates</a> in inner and outer regional areas than in metro areas. This could be because of more affordable housing and a better work-life balance. But it raises questions about whether people are moving out of cities to start families, or if something intrinsic about living in the regions promotes higher birth rates. <iframe id="U1wEx" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: 0;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/U1wEx/1/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe> <h2>Fewer workers, more pressure on services</h2> Changes to the makeup of a population can be just as important as changes to its size. With fewer babies being born and increased life expectancy, the proportion of older Australians who have left the workforce will keep rising. One way of tracking this is with a metric called the old-age dependency ratio – the number of people aged 65 and over per 100 working-age individuals. In Australia, this ratio is currently about 27%. But according to the latest <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/publication/2023-intergenerational-report">Intergenerational Report</a>, it’s expected to rise to 38% by 2063. An ageing population means greater demand for medical services and aged care. As the working-age population shrinks, the tax base that funds these services will also decline. Unless this is offset by technological advances or policy innovations, it can mean higher taxes, longer working lives, or the government providing fewer public services in general. <h2>What about housing?</h2> It’s tempting to think a falling birth rate might be good news for Australia’s stubborn housing crisis. The issues are linked – rising real estate prices have made it difficult for many young people to afford homes, with a significant number of people in their 20s <a href="https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/more-australian-adult-children-are-living-with-their-parents-longer">still living with their parents</a>. This can mean delaying starting a family and reducing the number of children they have. At the same time, if fertility rates stay low, demand for large family homes may decrease, impacting one of Australia’s most significant economic sectors and sources of household wealth. <h2>Can governments turn the tide?</h2> Governments worldwide, including Australia, have long experimented with policies that encourage families to have more children. Examples include paid parental leave, childcare subsidies and financial incentives, such as Australia’s “<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-baby-bonus-boost-looks-like-across-ten-years-81563">baby bonus</a>”. Many of these efforts have had only limited success. One reason is the rising average age at which women have their first child. In many developed countries, including Australia, the average age for first-time mothers has surpassed <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/mothers-babies/australias-mothers-babies/contents/overview-and-demographics/maternal-age">30</a>. As women delay childbirth, they become less likely to have multiple children, further contributing to declining birth rates. Encouraging women to start a family earlier could be one policy lever, but it must be balanced with women’s growing workforce participation and career goals. Research has previously highlighted the factors influencing fertility decisions, including levels of paternal involvement and workplace flexibility. Countries that offer part-time work or maternity leave without career penalties have seen a <a href="https://faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu/mdo738/research/Doepke_Hannusch_Kindermann_Tertilt_Handbook_23.pdf">stabilisation or slight increases</a> in fertility rates. <h2>The way forward</h2> Historically, one of the ways Australia has countered its low birth rate is through immigration. Bringing in a lot of people – especially skilled people of working age – can help offset the effects of a low fertility rate. However, relying on immigration alone is not a long-term solution. The global fertility slump means that the pool of young, <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2020/03/can-immigration-solve-the-demographic-dilemma-peri">educated workers from other countries</a> is shrinking, too. This makes it harder for Australia to attract the talent it needs to sustain economic growth. Australia’s record-low fertility rate presents both challenges and opportunities. On one hand, the shrinking number of young people will place a strain on public services, innovation and the labour market. On the other hand, advances in technology, particularly in artificial intelligence and robotics, may help ease the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0164070420302020">challenges of an ageing population</a>. That’s the optimistic scenario. AI and other tech-driven productivity gains could reduce the need for large workforces. And robotics could assist in aged care, lessening the impact of this demographic shift.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/241577/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jonathan-boymal-392960">Jonathan Boymal</a>, Associate Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/rmit-university-1063">RMIT University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ashton-de-silva-3066">Ashton De Silva</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/rmit-university-1063">RMIT University</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sarah-sinclair-385470">Sarah Sinclair</a>, Senior Lecturer in Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/rmit-university-1063">RMIT University</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-fertility-rate-has-reached-a-record-low-what-might-that-mean-for-the-economy-241577">original article</a>. </div>

Money & Banking

Man decides to end his own life after waiting for at-home care

A terminally ill man has made the heartbreaking decision to end his life after waiting 10-month for end of life care. Cyril Tooze, an 86-year-old from South Australia's Fleurieu Peninsula, was approved for a Level 4 Home Care Package in January. The package - which is the highest available care for individuals with high-level needs under the federal government’s MyAgedCare scheme - would give Mr Tooze up to $59,594 annually for daily assistance with physical, medical and social tasks. But almost one year on from the approval, his funds and support have yet to be delivered. It’s understood his family, who live interstate, contacted the government to enquire about receiving an urgent reassessment, and were told he could be waiting another three to six months. Independent MP Rebekha Sharkie told reporters that his family were also told a reassessment “could delay it even longer”. While waiting for his vital funds, Mr Tooze - who suffers from terminal heart and lung conditions and regularly requires morphine for pain relief - has worsened and has been hospitalised after suffering a fall at home. Tired of waiting for help to arrive, Tooze has started the process of ending his life through South Australia’s voluntary assisted dying scheme. “There is no hope ... I don’t want to live my life laying in a bed waiting for something to happen,” he told <a href="https://7news.com.au/news/terminally-ill-mans-heartbreaking-decision-to-end-his-life-after-10-month-wait-for-home-care-in-australia-c-16471785" target="_blank" rel="noopener">7News</a>. “You can’t live like that, that’s unfair, we don’t deserve that in such a country as Australia.” Following the media coverage of his case, Tooze was contacted by the Aged Care Department, who said the package could temporarily be made available. Sharkie said Tooze’s situation was “shameful”, saying, “What devastates me is that Mr Tooze feels voluntary assisted dying is the only course available to him, and that is because we as a nation have failed him." “I would say, if Mr Tooze had that package in a timely manner, as he should have, he would probably be sitting at home now, making himself a cup of tea.” Anglicare Australia’s <a href="https://www.anglicare.asn.au/2024/09/20/life-on-the-wait-list-report-shows-older-australians-are-going-without-support/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-link-type="article-inline">Life on the Wait List report</a> revealed that as of May 2024, 68,109 Australians had been approved for a Home Care Package but were facing wait times of up to 15 months to access it. Image credits: 7News

Caring

Should King Charles apologise for the genocide of First Nations people when he visits Australia?

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rebe-taylor-1379975">Rebe Taylor</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tasmania-888">University of Tasmania</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/greg-lehman-18970">Greg Lehman</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tasmania-888">University of Tasmania</a> King Charles and Queen Camilla will visit Australia from Friday <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/from-bbqs-to-the-csiro-king-charles-and-queen-camilla-s-australian-itinerary-revealed-20240910-p5k9gb.html">on a five-day tour</a> of Canberra and Sydney. The king will be the second ruling British monarch to visit Australia, after <a href="https://theconversation.com/16-visits-over-57-years-reflecting-on-queen-elizabeth-iis-long-relationship-with-australia-170945">Queen Elizabeth II’s 16 visits over 57 years</a>. These visits showcase Australians’ evolving relationship with the monarchy and our colonial past. <h2>Changing attitudes</h2> An estimated <a href="https://theconversation.com/16-visits-over-57-years-reflecting-on-queen-elizabeth-iis-long-relationship-with-australia-170945">75% of Australians</a> greeted Elizabeth on her first tour in 1954, at events that celebrated Australia’s growth as a prosperous nation. Historical milestones remained central to the queen’s subsequent visits. In 1970, she attended the re-enactment of Captain Cook’s arrival at Botany Bay. This included depictions of shooting at First Nations actors. The queen’s 1986 visit included <a href="https://www.naa.gov.au/students-and-teachers/student-research-portal/learning-resource-themes/government-and-democracy/prime-ministers-and-politicians/queen-elizabeth-ii-signs-proclamation-australia-act-cth-1986">signing the Australia Act</a> that severed Britain’s formal powers over Australia. Her 1988 visit coincided with the Australian bicentenary of <a href="https://www.royal.uk/queen-marks-australias-bicentenary">the arrival of the First Fleet</a> carrying convicts and officials from Britain. But by this time, many Australians had lost their royal fervour. Her final tour, in 2011, came 12 years after Australia had attempted <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/elections/referendums/1999_referendum_reports_statistics/1999.htm">to become a republic</a> by referendum. <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-61585886">The queen’s death in 2022</a> not only reignited questions over the future of the monarchy in Australia, it instigated a public discussion over the monarchy’s role in imperial colonialism. <h2>Genocide in Australia?</h2> On the eve of <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9789/#:%7E:text=The%20Coronation%20of%20Their%20Majesties,Coronation%20in%20nearly%2070%20years.">Charles’ coronation in 2023</a>, Indigenous leaders from 12 settler states including Australia and New Zealand cosigned <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/nitv/article/indigenous-people-around-the-world-have-sent-kin/rbfzwoyav">a letter calling on the new monarch</a> to apologise for the genocides that British colonisation brought to their territories. Australia was settled in the name of the Kingdom of Great Britain. Did that settlement result in genocide? Recent research led by Ben Kiernan for <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/series/cambridge-world-history-of-genocide/445A52F1E949DCB6CA8FC6BD09F04DE0">The Cambridge World History of Genocide</a> has investigated this question using the 1948 <a href="https://treaties.un.org/pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=IV-1&chapter=4">United Nations Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide</a> as a framework. The convention defines genocide as “acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group”. The term “genocide” itself is modern; coined <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/cambridge-world-history-of-genocide/general-editors-introduction-to-the-series/986A5AFB44203A21265FF31C96C0DE3B">by Raphael Lemkin in 1944</a>. The <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/cambridge-world-history-of-genocide/genocide-in-van-diemens-land-tasmania-18031871/ED82A107B2C76801551EB3F51CA6179D">colonisation of Tasmania</a> by the British provided Lemkin with one of the clearest examples. The prosecution of crimes before 1951 is not permissible under the convention, but it provides a definitional framework to evaluate past events as constituent acts of genocide. The Cambridge World History of Genocide <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/the-cambridge-world-history-of-genocide/E60C05ADB875E63EE57B5D41EC4BA485">Volume II</a> and <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/cambridge-world-history-of-genocide/24002BE3CC6F69B96F0C21356E6D9282">Volume III</a> demonstrate how settlers and government agents committed acts of genocide against First Nations Australians from the beginning of settlement to the late 20th centuries. All parts of Australia are considered. Acts conforming to the convention’s clauses include killing, forcibly removing children and inflicting destructive conditions. Australian historian Lyndall Ryan’s chapter, <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/cambridge-world-history-of-genocide/frontier-massacres-in-australia-17881928/D1B285AF2125CA9586DBB1AFAF0CF70E">Frontier Massacres in Australia</a>, draws on her research for a <a href="https://c21ch.newcastle.edu.au/colonialmassacres/map.php">Massacre Map</a> showing how British troops and settlers committed more than 290 massacres across Australia between 1794 and 1928. These massacres killed more than 7,500 Aboriginal people. Ryan found the massacres were not sporadic and isolated – they were planned and sanctioned killings, integral to the aims of the Australian colonial project. Rebe Taylor’s <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/cambridge-world-history-of-genocide/genocide-in-van-diemens-land-tasmania-18031871/ED82A107B2C76801551EB3F51CA6179D">chapter on genocide in Tasmania</a> details a pattern of government-sanctioned mass killings in a colony where an estimated 6,000 Palawa (Tasmanian Aboriginal) people were reduced to about 120 by 1835. <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/cambridge-world-history-of-genocide/genocide-in-northern-australia-18241928/69106AF545B4C98486752DBA88575E05">Raymond Evans</a> shows how as colonisation moved northward in Australia, massacres increased in size. Evans documents killings that persisted into the 1940s, postdating <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/cambridge-world-history-of-genocide/genocide-in-northern-australia-18241928/69106AF545B4C98486752DBA88575E05">the 1928 Coniston massacre</a> widely regarded as the last frontier slaughter. These findings are underscored by <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/cambridge-world-history-of-genocide/very-british-genocide/78EB24782843ABFA05965F5E4C7562CA">Tony Barta’s insight</a> that colonists’ destructive actions constitute a record of genocidal intent “more powerful than any documented plot to destroy a people”. <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/cambridge-world-history-of-genocide/australias-stolen-generations-19142021/9219A470B4665A643DC99CC5BBE699D0">Research by Anna Haebich</a> documents the taking of Indigenous children during the 19th century. <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/cambridge-world-history-of-genocide/australias-stolen-generations-19142021/9219A470B4665A643DC99CC5BBE699D0">Joanna Cruikshank and Crystal Mckinnon</a> explain how these state-sanctioned removals in the 20th century were intended to eliminate First Nations people from Australia’s national life. The 1997 <a href="https://humanrights.gov.au/our-work/projects/bringing-them-home-report-1997">Bringing Them Home</a> report, commissioned by the Human Rights and Equal Opportunity Commission, <a href="https://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/IndigLawB/1997/95.html">concluded</a> the “Australian practice of Indigenous child removal involved […] genocide as defined by international law”. <h2>A significant moment of resistance</h2> The colonial governor of Tasmania began to exile Palawa people from their land in 1829. More than 200 survivors of the “<a href="https://theconversation.com/tasmanias-black-war-a-tragic-case-of-lest-we-remember-25663">Black War</a>” were removed to Flinders Island and subjected to life-threateningly harsh conditions. High death rates were caused by ill-treatment, disease and insufficient care. In 1846, the Palawa <a href="https://indigenousrights.net.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/395794/f85.pdf">petitioned Queen Victoria</a> to honour the agreement made when they were removed: that in exchange for temporarily leaving their country, they would regain their freedom. In this bold petition, Tasmanian Aboriginal people initiated a historic appeal to the British monarchy. Aware of Queen Victoria’s sovereign authority across the vast British Empire, this action marked a significant moment in their continued resistance to genocide. <h2>An acknowledgement of wrongs</h2> British sovereignty over Australia was imposed without <a href="https://www.foundingdocs.gov.au/item-did-34.html">the required consent</a> of its First Nations. The result has been continued dispossession and suffering. Despite the <a href="https://www.royal.uk/the-role-of-the-monarchy#:%7E:text=Monarchy%20is%20the%20oldest%20form,resides%20with%20an%20elected%20Parliament">Crown’s deferral of power</a> to its parliament, the call for an apology from the king has immense symbolic importance. It is rooted in the desire for acknowledgement of wrongs. These include genocide and the continuing destructive effects of colonisation across Australia.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/239092/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rebe-taylor-1379975">Rebe Taylor</a>, Associate Professor of History, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tasmania-888">University of Tasmania</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/greg-lehman-18970">Greg Lehman</a>, Professorial Fellow, Indigenous Research, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tasmania-888">University of Tasmania</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/should-king-charles-apologise-for-the-genocide-of-first-nations-people-when-he-visits-australia-239092">original article</a>. </div>

International Travel

Pokies? Lotto? Sports betting? Which forms of problem gambling affect Australians the most?

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/alex-russell-133860">Alex Russell</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/cquniversity-australia-2140">CQUniversity Australia</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/matthew-browne-97705">Matthew Browne</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/cquniversity-australia-2140">CQUniversity Australia</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/matthew-rockloff-569">Matthew Rockloff</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/cquniversity-australia-2140">CQUniversity Australia</a> Gambling, especially sports and race betting, is a hot political issue at the moment. This is largely due to the recommendations from a 2023 report from a nonpartisan federal government committee, chaired by the late Peta Murphy, called <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House/Social_Policy_and_Legal_Affairs/Onlinegamblingimpacts/Report">You Win Some, You Lose More</a>. This report <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House/Social_Policy_and_Legal_Affairs/Onlinegamblingimpacts/Report/List_of_recommendations">recommended</a> “the Australian government, with the cooperation of the states and territories, implement a comprehensive ban on all forms of advertising for online gambling”. This has led to lots of debate and controversy. Recently, Peter V’landys, head of the NRL and Racing NSW, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nanny-state-nrl-afl-storm-the-field-over-gambling-ads-20240920-p5kc2q.html">claimed</a> lotteries were more harmful than race and sports betting combined, citing independent statistics. Let’s explore the relative harm of different types of gambling and see if this claim holds up. <h2>Australians love a punt</h2> Gambling is widespread in Australia, with <a href="https://www.gamblingresearch.org.au/publications/second-national-study-interactive-gambling-australia-2019-20">more than half of adults</a> engaging in at least one form each year. According to the <a href="https://www.gamblingresearch.org.au/publications/second-national-study-interactive-gambling-australia-2019-20">latest national data</a>, lotteries are the most common type (40% of Australians buy a ticket annually), followed by race betting (17%), pokies (16%), scratchies (15.7%) and sports betting (9.6%). However, the popularity of a gambling form doesn’t necessarily reflect its harm. Different gambling activities have distinct characteristics. Two key factors mean that some gambling forms are more harmful than others: the speed of gambling and bet size. Pokies allow for frequent, small bets, with spins every three seconds. Race and sports betting can involve much larger sums and betting that is relatively fast, but still slower than pokie spins. Sports betting, in particular, is getting faster with in-play betting and <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30386964/">microbetting</a>. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/hI_XFOc4is0?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe><figcaption>Poker machines, or ‘pokies’ are the biggest single source of gambling losses in Australia.</figcaption></figure> Lotteries, on the other hand, are much slower-paced. People typically spend a small amount on tickets and wait for a draw to find out if they’ve won. Although it’s possible to spend a lot on tickets, <a href="https://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/statistics/theme/society/gambling/australian-gambling-statistics">people tend not to</a>, unlike with faster gambling forms. The average spend on pokies among the 16% who play them is around $4,782 per year, compared to an average spend on lotteries of $377 per year. These are averages. Most won’t spend these amounts but some will spend far more, which raises the average amount. V’landys’ claim about lotteries being more harmful than race and sports betting was based on “independent statistics”. He said that of 100 people seeking help from a gambling hotline, 70 had issues with pokies, 15 with lotteries, eight with race betting, four with sports betting, and three with casinos. We were unable to verify these figures – if anyone has the data, we’d love to see the research to assess them. However, we do have publicly available data. <h2>What the data say</h2> The NSW GambleAware website’s <a href="https://www.gambleaware.nsw.gov.au/-/media/ghs-annual-activity-report-2020-21.ashx?rev=e070f9c8bdbf4031816a852f27246c54&hash=C5FC3AA23BE5F2EF69D551A5E2292BA9#:%7E:text=Of%20the%20clients%20receiving%20counselling,36.9%25%20of%20all%20female%20clients.">2020-21</a> report shows that of 2,886 people seeking help, 73.3% identified pokies as their primary form of gambling, while only 13 people (less than 1%) listed lotteries. Race betting accounted for 13.1%, and sports betting for 7.9%. These patterns were consistent with <a href="https://www.gambleaware.nsw.gov.au/about-us/corporate-documents">previous years</a>. People who experience problems also usually take part in more than one form of gambling, as the NSW report showed. When these secondary gambling activities were considered, sports betting was cited by 35.5%, race betting by 33.5%, pokies by 19.5%, and lotteries by 13.7%. <h2>What we discovered</h2> The best evidence on gambling problems and harm comes from large-scale prevalence studies, typically commissioned by governments and conducted by independent researchers. These studies offer high-quality insights into how each gambling form contributes to problems. While one prevalence study is great, our team recently combined data from seven national and state-based prevalence studies. This resulted in a very high-quality dataset that we can use to study this question. In <a href="https://akjournals.com/view/journals/2006/12/1/article-p182.xml">our analysis</a>, we used statistical techniques to show how strongly each gambling form is associated with problems. These techniques give us regression coefficients, which are just numbers that tell us how strong the association is. A higher number means a stronger association between that form and gambling problems. The most problematic form was pokies (coefficient = 0.147), followed by casino games (0.136), sports betting (0.068) and race betting (0.038). Lotteries, with a coefficient of 0.001, were the least problematic and were not statistically significant even in our large sample. As you might guess from such a low number, there’s very little relationship between lotteries and gambling problems. <h2>What about prevalence?</h2> Prevalence matters too – while pokies were most strongly associated with problems, the number of people participating in each gambling form is also important. Let’s consider an analogy – a car that gives out a lot of exhaust fumes. That car is harmful, but if virtually no one owns one, then it’s not going to account for much pollution. The same idea applies for gambling forms. If a gambling form is very harmful but very few people do it, it doesn’t account for many problems in the population. It works the other way, too – if there is a very clean type of car that many people drive, they also won’t add up to much pollution. Similarly, if we have gambling forms that have very little association with problems, it won’t add up to many problems in the population, even if lots of people take part. The regression coefficients tell us how problematic each gambling form is. Prevalance tells us how many people do it. When we combine these two bits of information, we can work out the degree of problems in the community that come from each form. When we did this, pokies were responsible for 52-57% of gambling problems in the community. Sports and race betting each contributed 9-11%, with a combined total of around 20%. Lotteries accounted for just 0.1-1% of problems. Even if we include scratchies as part of lotteries, this only adds another 2-5% of problems, still far below sports and race betting. <hr /> <iframe id="quxHH" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: 0;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/quxHH/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe> <hr /> <h2>The real issue</h2> What’s the takeaway? Lotteries are widely played but are not typically associated with much harm. Sports and race betting, despite having fewer participants, are more harmful due to their faster pace and the potential for large, frequent bets. Lotteries involve slower betting and lower spending, making them much less risky. If we aim to reduce gambling harm in our community, the focus should be on pokies, which are widespread in pubs and clubs <a href="https://akjournals.com/view/journals/2006/12/3/article-p721.xml">outside WA</a>, casino games and race and sports betting. These forms have features that make them far more harmful than slower-paced gambling like lotteries.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/240665/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/alex-russell-133860">Alex Russell</a>, Principal Research Fellow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/cquniversity-australia-2140">CQUniversity Australia</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/matthew-browne-97705">Matthew Browne</a>, Senior Lecturer in Statistics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/cquniversity-australia-2140">CQUniversity Australia</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/matthew-rockloff-569">Matthew Rockloff</a>, Head, Experimental Gambling Research Lab, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/cquniversity-australia-2140">CQUniversity Australia</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/pokies-lotto-sports-betting-which-forms-of-problem-gambling-affect-australians-the-most-240665">original article</a>. </div>

Money & Banking

Charles III will be the first king of Australia to visit our shores. He could also be the last

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jess-carniel-99739">Jess Carniel</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-southern-queensland-1069">University of Southern Queensland</a> King Charles III and Queen Camilla’s upcoming visit to Australia is significant for several reasons. It is Charles’ first visit since ascending to the throne – as well as the first time a British male head of state has visited Australia. Some observers are also wondering whether it might be one of the last royal tours, as debates about Australia potentially <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/13/republican-debate-flares-ahead-of-king-charles-first-visit-to-australia-as-monarch">becoming a republic</a> are reignited. As the monarchy tries to “modernise” alongside growing support for republicanism, this visit will be one to watch. <h2>The curse of the Antipodes?</h2> As Prince of Wales, Charles had a long and successful track record of royal tours to Australia, having visited 16 times. The visits included a term attending <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-64113876">Geelong Grammar School</a> in 1966, as well as the <a href="https://www.townandcountrymag.com/society/tradition/g33926226/princess-diana-prince-charles-australia-royal-tour-1983-photos/">1983 tour</a> with Princess Diana that saw Australians caught up in Di-mania – and Charles reportedly <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-29/princess-diana-princess-charles-australia-1983-the-crown/12914130">gripped by jealousy</a>. But Charles’ royal predecessors weren’t as lucky in their trips down under. His own grandfather, King George VI, <a href="https://collectionswa.net.au/items/202bce46-f056-413e-bc74-ddf4d2f8e999#:%7E:text=Planning%20for%20this%20royal%20visit,after%20her%20father's%20untimely%20death.">planned to visit</a> Australia in the late 1940s with Queen Elizabeth and Princess Margaret, but the tour was postponed due to his poor health. While he had previously visited as the <a href="https://collections.museumsvictoria.com.au/articles/2053#:%7E:text=They%20had%20two%20daughters%2C%20Elizabeth,Canberra%20on%209%20May%201927.">Duke of York</a>, George VI never made it here as king. The very first royal visit to Australia – Prince Alfred’s <a href="https://www.nma.gov.au/defining-moments/resources/first-royal-visit">1867 tour</a> – had all appearance of being cursed. One of his crew members drowned during the first stop in South Australia. Several more people died in a major fire accident and a Catholic-Protestant skirmish in Melbourne. Most memorably – certainly for Alfred – was <a href="https://theconversation.com/royal-visits-to-australia-can-be-disaster-magnets-in-the-first-one-the-prince-barely-made-it-out-alive-233103">an assassination attempt</a> on the prince in Sydney. This, interestingly, is an experience King Charles has also had. During Charles’ 1994 visit, student protester David Kang fired blanks from a starter pistol in protest of Australia’s treatment of Cambodian refugees. The then Prince of Wales wasn’t harmed and Kang went on to <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/he-shot-at-a-prince-now-hes-a-barrister-20050206-gdkmyp.html">become a barrister</a>. For non-British royals, however, Sydney has been a lucky location. King Frederick X’s decidedly modern romance <a href="https://www.womensweekly.com.au/royals/princess-mary/crown-princess-mary-crown-prince-frederik-love-story/">with Tasmania-born Queen Mary</a> famously began when they met at a bar during the Sydney Olympics in 2000. <h2>Prince or king – does it matter?</h2> This will be Charles’ seventeenth visit to Australia, but his first as reigning monarch. This means he is visiting not on behalf of the head of state, but as the head of state. The royal couple’s planned <a href="https://www.royal.uk/news-and-activity/2024-09-10/the-king-and-queen-will-visit-australia-and-samoa">Australian engagements</a> are as strategic as they are symbolic. They reflect carefully curated and ostensibly “non-political” issues such as environmental sustainability, cancer research and family violence. The visit also includes a meeting with Indigenous representatives. Notably, it is the first royal tour <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/royal-walkabout-shelved-due-to-cultural-sensitivities-20240911-p5k9n1.html">to not use the term “walkabout”</a> to describe public meet-and-greets, as this term had been criticised as cultural appropriation. It seems Charles’ modernised monarchy is seeking to distance itself from overtly colonial language – as much as a foreign monarchy can, anyway. The king has yet to respond to Indigenous leaders <a href="https://theconversation.com/should-king-charles-apologise-for-the-genocide-of-first-nations-people-when-he-visits-australia-239092">calling for an apology</a> for British colonisers’ genocides of First Nations peoples. Although the Australian media has focused on the stops in Canberra and Sydney, the main purpose of the tour is for the king to attend the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting <a href="https://samoachogm2024.ws/">in Samoa</a> between October 21 and 26. It is the first time the meeting will be hosted by a Pacific Island state. The talks are an important opportunity for the king to highlight issues such as climate change, to which small island states in the Pacific <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/research/environmental-impacts/climate-change/pacific-climate-change-info">are particularly vulnerable</a>. <h2>Are people happy about the visit?</h2> All six state premiers have declined their invitations to meet the king at his welcome reception in Canberra, citing other commitments. Their excuses might be genuine in some cases. For example, Queensland Premier Steven Miles is in the last few weeks of an election campaign. However, critics from the monarchist camp have viewed the move as <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/king-charles-iii-snubbed-australia-state-leaders-visit-insult-uk/">a political response</a> to debates over whether Australia should remain a constitutional monarchy with the king as its head of state. A <a href="https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/46044-one-year-king-charles-reign-where-do-australian-at">YouGov Australia poll</a> published on the first anniversary of Charles’s ascension showed Australians are divided on republicanism. While 32% want to become a republic “as soon as possible”, 35% preferred to remain a constitutional monarchy and 12% wanted to become a republic after the king’s death. The remaining respondents didn’t know. Notably, the poll found republican sentiment had increased since Queen Elizabeth II’s death in September 2022. The Albanese government established an assistant minister for the republic upon entering office in 2022 (although the portfolio was abolished with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jul/29/albaneses-new-lineup-signposts-labors-areas-of-greatest-weakness-and-effectively-concede-he-made-mistakes">this year’s reshuffle</a>). Upon taking the role, assistant minister Matt Thistlethwaite <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/01/minister-republic-twilight-queen-reign-good-opportunity-next-for-australia">suggested</a> the “twilight of [Queen Elizabeth’s] reign” presented “a good opportunity for a serious discussion about what comes next for Australia”. Charles doesn’t seem to be taking all this too personally. In a letter responding to the Australian Republican Movement in March this year, his private secretary said the king <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/13/republican-debate-flares-ahead-of-king-charles-first-visit-to-australia-as-monarch">viewed this</a> as “a matter for the Australian public to decide”. The royal tour and the meeting in Samoa will be important opportunities for the monarchy to connect with Australia and other Commonwealth nations. By presenting itself as a modern institution engaged with contemporary issues such as climate change, the monarchy will also have to engage with the possibility of new political identities for its former colonies.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/241345/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jess-carniel-99739">Jess Carniel</a>, Associate professor in Humanities, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-southern-queensland-1069">University of Southern Queensland</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/charles-iii-will-be-the-first-king-of-australia-to-visit-our-shores-he-could-also-be-the-last-241345">original article</a>. </div>

Travel Trouble

Lessons for the next pandemic: where did Australia go right and wrong in responding to COVID?

<div class="theconversation-article-body"> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/adrian-esterman-1022994">Adrian Esterman</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-south-australia-1180">University of South Australia</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/guzyal-hill-575966">Guzyal Hill</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/charles-darwin-university-1066">Charles Darwin University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/hassan-vally-202904">Hassan Vally</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/deakin-university-757">Deakin University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kim-m-caudwell-1258935">Kim M Caudwell</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/charles-darwin-university-1066">Charles Darwin University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/michael-toole-18259">Michael Toole</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/burnet-institute-992">Burnet Institute</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/steven-mcgloughlin-1246135">Steven McGloughlin</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/monash-university-1065">Monash University</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tari-turner-7922">Tari Turner</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/monash-university-1065">Monash University</a> With COVID still classified as <a href="https://www.who.int/europe/emergencies/situations/covid-19">an ongoing pandemic</a>, it’s difficult to contemplate the next one. But we <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-pathogen-might-spark-the-next-pandemic-how-scientists-are-preparing-for-disease-x-223193">need to be prepared</a>. We’ve seen <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-we-seeing-more-pandemics-our-impact-on-the-planet-has-a-lot-to-do-with-it-226827">several pandemics</a> in recent decades and it’s fair to expect we’ll see more. For the final part in a <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/the-next-pandemic-160343">series of articles</a> on the next pandemic, we’ve asked a range of experts what Australia got right and wrong it its response to COVID. Here they share their thoughts on the country’s COVID response – and what we can learn for the next pandemic. <hr /> <h2>Quarantine</h2> The federal government mandated 14 days of quarantine for all international arrivals between March 2020 and November 2021. During that period, <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/resource/download/national-review-of-quarantine.pdf">452,550 people</a> passed through the system. The states and Northern Territory were given <a href="https://quarantineinquiry.archive.royalcommission.vic.gov.au/covid-19-hotel-quarantine-inquiry-final-report-0">just 48 hours</a> to set up their quarantine systems. The states chose hotel quarantine, while the Northern Territory repurposed an old miner’s camp, <a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/darwins-howard-springs-facility-a-model-for-building-national-resilience/">Howard Springs</a>, which had individual cabins with outdoor verandas. The ACT had very few international arrivals, while Tasmania only had hotel quarantine for domestic travellers. During the first 15 months of the program, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.5694/mja2.51240">at least 22 breaches</a> occurred in five states (New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia). An inquiry into Victoria’s hotel quarantine <a href="https://au.news.yahoo.com/covid-victorias-devastating-hotel-quarantine-killed-almost-800-people-110450178.html">found</a> the lack of warning and planning to set up the complex system resulted in breaches that caused Victoria’s second COVID wave of 2020, leading to almost 800 deaths. A <a href="https://www.cnet.com/science/features/how-the-delta-variant-breached-australias-covid-fortress/">breach at Sydney airport</a> led to the introduction of the Delta variant into Australia. In the next pandemic, mistakes from COVID need to be avoided. They included failure to protect hotel residents and staff from airborne transmission through ventilation and mask usage. Protocols need to be consistent across the country, such as the type of security staff used, N95 masks for staff and testing frequency. These protocols need to be included in a national pandemic preparedness plan, which is frequently reviewed and tested through simulations. This did not occur with the pre-COVID preparedness plan. Dedicated quarantine centres like Howard Springs already exist in Victoria and Queensland. Ideally, they should be constructed in every jurisdiction. Michael Toole <hr /> <h2>Treatments</h2> Scientists had to move quickly after COVID was discovered to find effective treatments. Many COVID treatments involved repurposing existing drugs designed for other viruses. For example, the HIV drug ritonavir is a key element of <a href="https://theconversation.com/pfizers-pill-is-the-latest-covid-treatment-to-show-promise-here-are-some-more-171589">the antiviral Paxlovid</a>, while remdesivir was originally developed <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-who-has-advised-against-the-use-of-two-antibody-therapies-against-covid-heres-what-that-means-190787">to treat hepatitis C</a>. At the outset of the pandemic, there was a lot of uncertainty about COVID treatment among Australian health professionals. To keep up with the rapidly developing science, the <a href="https://www.monash.edu/medicine/partnerships/our-partnerships/projects/national-clinical-evidence-taskforce">National Clinical Evidence Taskforce</a> was established in March 2020. We were involved in its COVID response with more than 250 clinicians, consumers and researchers. Unusually for evidence-based guidelines, which are often updated only every five years or so, the taskforce’s guidelines were designed to be “living” – updated as new research became available. In April 2020 we released the first guidelines for care of people with COVID, and over the next three years <a href="https://app.magicapp.org/#/guideline/7252">these were updated</a> more than 100 times. While health-care professionals always had access to up-to-date guidance on COVID treatments, this same information was not as accessible for the public. This may partly explain why many people turned to <a href="https://theconversation.com/thinking-of-trying-ivermectin-for-covid-heres-what-can-happen-with-this-controversial-drug-167178">unproven treatments</a>. The taskforce’s benefits could have been increased with funding to help the community understand COVID treatments. COVID drugs faced other obstacles too. For example, changes to the virus itself meant some treatments <a href="https://theconversation.com/from-centaurus-to-xbb-your-handy-guide-to-the-latest-covid-subvariants-and-why-some-are-more-worrying-than-others-192945">became less effective</a> as new variants emerged. Meanwhile, provision of antiviral treatments <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/How-we-analysed-COVID-antiviral-uptake-Grattan-Institute.pdf">has not been equitable</a> across the country. COVID drugs have had important, though not game-changing, impacts. Ultimately, effective vaccines played a much greater role in shifting the course of the pandemic. But we might not be so fortunate next time. In any future pandemic it will be crucial to have a clear pathway for rapid, reliable methods to develop and evaluate new treatments, disseminate that research to clinicians, policymakers and the public, and ensure all Australians can access the treatments they need. Steven McGloughlin and Tari Turner, Monash University <hr /> <h2>Vaccine rollout</h2> COVID vaccines were developed <a href="https://theconversation.com/one-of-sciences-greatest-achievements-how-the-rapid-development-of-covid-vaccines-prepares-us-for-future-pandemics-228787">in record time</a>, but rolling them out quickly and seamlessly proved to be a challenge. In Australia, there were several missteps along the way. First, there was poor preparation and execution. Detailed <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/ministers/the-hon-mark-butler-mp/media/auditor-general-highlights-vaccine-rollout-failures">planning was not finalised</a> until after the rollout had begun. Then the federal government had <a href="https://theconversation.com/4-ways-australias-covid-vaccine-rollout-has-been-bungled-158225">overly ambitious targets</a>. For example, the goal of vaccinating four million people by the end of March 2021 fell drastically short, with less than one-fifth of that number actually vaccinated by that time. There were also <a href="https://theconversation.com/4-ways-australias-covid-vaccine-rollout-has-been-bungled-158225">supply issues</a>, with the European Union blocking some deliveries to Australia. Unfortunately, the government was heavily reliant on <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/ministers/the-hon-mark-butler-mp/media/auditor-general-highlights-vaccine-rollout-failures">the AstraZeneca vaccine</a>, which was found, in rare cases, to lead to <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/our-work/covid-19-vaccines/advice-for-providers/clinical-guidance/tts">blood clots</a> in younger people. Despite all this, Australia ultimately achieved high vaccination rates. By the end of December 2021, <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2021/12/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-update-31-december-2021.pdf">more than 94%</a> of the population aged 16 and over had received at least one dose. This was a significant public health achievement and saved <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0299844">thousands of lives</a>. But over the past couple of years, Australia’s initially strong vaccine uptake has been waning. The <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-03/atagi-statement-on-the-administration-of-covid-19-vaccines-in-2024.pdf">Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation</a> recommends booster doses for vulnerable groups annually or twice annually. However, only 30% of people aged <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-09/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-update-13-september-2024.pdf">75 and over</a> (for whom a booster is recommended every six months) have had a booster dose in the past six months. There are several lessons to be learned from the COVID vaccine rollout for any future pandemic, though it’s not entirely clear whether they are being heeded. For example, several manufacturers have developed <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-covid-vaccines-may-be-coming-to-australia-heres-what-to-know-about-the-jn-1-shots-237652">updated COVID vaccines</a> based on the JN.1 subvariant. But <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/why-australia-could-miss-out-on-modernas-new-covid-19-vaccine/n5n0iruv1">reports indicate</a> the government will only be purchasing the Pfizer JN.1 booster. This doesn’t seem like the best approach to shore up vaccine supply. Adrian Esterman, University of South Australia <hr /> <h2>Mode of transmission</h2> Nearly five years since SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID) first emerged, we now know <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-how-is-it-transmitted">airborne transmission</a> plays a far greater role than we originally thought. In contrast, the risk of SARS-CoV-2 being transmitted via surfaces is <a href="https://theconversation.com/catching-covid-from-surfaces-is-very-unlikely-so-perhaps-we-can-ease-up-on-the-disinfecting-155359">likely to be low</a>, and perhaps effectively non-existent in many situations. Early in the pandemic, the role contaminated surfaces and inanimate objects played in COVID transmission was overestimated. The main reason we got this wrong, at least initially, was that in the absence of any direct experience with SARS-CoV-2, we extrapolated what we believed to be true for other respiratory viruses. This was understandable, but it proved to be inadequate for predicting how SARS-CoV-2 would behave. One of the main consequences of overestimating the role of surface transmission was that it resulted in a lot of unnecessary anxiety and the adoption of what can only be viewed in retrospect as <a href="https://theconversation.com/catching-covid-from-surfaces-is-very-unlikely-so-perhaps-we-can-ease-up-on-the-disinfecting-155359">over-the-top cleaning practices</a>. Remember the teams of people who walked the streets wiping down traffic light poles? How about the concern over reusable coffee cups? Considerable resources that could have been better invested elsewhere were directed towards disinfecting surfaces. This also potentially distracted our focus from other preventive measures that were likely to have been more effective, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-masks-reduce-the-risk-of-spreading-covid-despite-a-review-saying-they-dont-198992">wearing masks</a>. The focus on surface transmission was amplified by a number of studies published early in the pandemic that documented the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7121658/">survival of SARS-CoV-2</a> for long periods on surfaces. However, these were conducted in the lab with little similarity to real-world conditions. In particular, the amounts of virus placed on surfaces were greater than what people would likely encounter outside the lab. This inflated viral survival times and therefore the perception of risk. The emphasis on surface transmission early in the pandemic ultimately proved to be a miscalculation. It highlights the challenges in understanding how a new virus spreads. Hassan Vally, Deakin University <hr /> <h2>National unity</h2> Initially, Commonwealth, state and territory leaders were relatively united in their response to the COVID pandemic. The establishment of the National Cabinet in <a href="https://federation.gov.au/national-cabinet">March 2020</a> indicated a commitment to consensus-based public health policy. Meanwhile, different jurisdictions came together to deliver a <a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/individuals-and-families/financial-difficulties-and-disasters/covid-19/jobkeeper-payment">range of measures</a> aimed at supporting businesses and workers affected by COVID restrictions. But as the pandemic continued, tensions gave way to deeper ideological fractures between jurisdictions <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12888-024-05834-9">and individuals</a>. The issues of <a href="https://www.unswlawjournal.unsw.edu.au/article/covid-19-vaccine-mandates-a-coercive-but-justified-public-health-necessity">vaccine mandates</a>, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-30/wa-premier-mark-mcgowan-reopening-date-decision/100788876">border closures</a> and <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/00048674211031489">lockdowns</a> all created fragmentation between governments, and among experts. The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/19/daniel-andrews-lashes-josh-frydenberg-over-attack-on-victorias-covid-strategy">blame game began</a> between and within jurisdictions. For example, the politicisation of <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/govt-playing-cruise-ship-blame-game-labor/49ad3491-2187-4991-a3a0-1c61145bc2cb">quarantine regulations on cruise ships</a> revealed disunity. School closures, on which the Commonwealth and state and territory governments <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/we-made-the-wrong-decisions-covid-era-mass-school-closures-condemned-20240214-p5f521.html">took different positions</a>, also generated controversy. These and other instances of polarisation undermined the intent of the newly established <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-the-covid-crisis-easing-is-the-national-cabinet-still-fit-for-purpose-202145">National Cabinet</a>. The COVID pandemic showed us that <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4859497">disunity across the country</a> threatens the collective work needed for an effective response in <a href="https://ir.law.fsu.edu/jtlp/vol30/iss1/3/">the face of emergencies</a>. The <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/domestic-policy/commonwealth-government-covid-19-response-inquiry">COVID response inquiry</a>, due to release its results soon, will hopefully help us work toward <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-19-3292-2">national uniform legislation</a> that may benefit Australia in the event of <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-19-3292-2_10">any future pandemics</a>. This doesn’t necessarily mean identical legislation across the country – this won’t always be appropriate. But a cohesive, long-term approach is crucial to ensure the best outcomes for the Australian federation in its entirety. Guzyal Hill and Kim M Caudwell, Charles Darwin University <hr /> This article is part of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/the-next-pandemic-160343">series on the next pandemic</a>.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/239819/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/adrian-esterman-1022994">Adrian Esterman</a>, Professor of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-south-australia-1180">University of South Australia</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/guzyal-hill-575966">Guzyal Hill</a>, Associate Professor, Faculty of Arts and Society, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/charles-darwin-university-1066">Charles Darwin University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/hassan-vally-202904">Hassan Vally</a>, Associate Professor, Epidemiology, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/deakin-university-757">Deakin University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kim-m-caudwell-1258935">Kim M Caudwell</a>, Senior Lecturer - Psychology | Chair, Researchers in Behavioural Addictions, Alcohol and Drugs (BAAD), <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/charles-darwin-university-1066">Charles Darwin University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/michael-toole-18259">Michael Toole</a>, Associate Principal Research Fellow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/burnet-institute-992">Burnet Institute</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/steven-mcgloughlin-1246135">Steven McGloughlin</a>, Director, Intensive Care Unit, Alfred Health; Professor, Epidemiology and Preventative Medicine, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/monash-university-1065">Monash University</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tari-turner-7922">Tari Turner</a>, Director, Evidence and Methods, National COVID-19 Clinical Evidence Taskforce; Associate Professor (Research), Cochrane Australia, School of Population Health and Preventive Medicine, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/monash-university-1065">Monash University</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/lessons-for-the-next-pandemic-where-did-australia-go-right-and-wrong-in-responding-to-covid-239819">original article</a>. </div>

Legal

Cyclist and AusPost worker caught in wild brawl

An altercation between an Australia Post worker and a cyclist has gone viral on social media, with an investigation underway. The video captured by Gold Coast resident Codey Lamos showed the cyclist attacking the postie's van. "I don't want to fight, go away," the driver can be heard saying, as he tries to get into his van, the cyclist pushes the door squishing the driver. After realising he won't be left alone, the driver jumps out and begins throwing punches at the cyclist, while also throwing a small object at him. They then punch at each other for a few seconds, exchanging a few words before the driver hopped back into his van. <blockquote class="instagram-media" style="background: #FFF; border: 0; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: 0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width: 540px; min-width: 326px; padding: 0; width: calc(100% - 2px);" data-instgrm-captioned="" data-instgrm-permalink="https://www.instagram.com/reel/DBBICoSpsmS/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" data-instgrm-version="14"> <div style="padding: 16px;"> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; align-items: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 40px; margin-right: 14px; width: 40px;"> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 100px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 60px;"> </div> </div> </div> <div style="padding: 19% 0;"> </div> <div style="display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0 auto 12px; width: 50px;"> </div> <div style="padding-top: 8px;"> <div style="color: #3897f0; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 550; line-height: 18px;">View this post on Instagram</div> </div> <div style="padding: 12.5% 0;"> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; margin-bottom: 14px; align-items: center;"> <div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(0px) translateY(7px);"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; height: 12.5px; transform: rotate(-45deg) translateX(3px) translateY(1px); width: 12.5px; flex-grow: 0; margin-right: 14px; margin-left: 2px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(9px) translateY(-18px);"> </div> </div> <div style="margin-left: 8px;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 20px; width: 20px;"> </div> <div style="width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 2px solid transparent; border-left: 6px solid #f4f4f4; border-bottom: 2px solid transparent; transform: translateX(16px) translateY(-4px) rotate(30deg);"> </div> </div> <div style="margin-left: auto;"> <div style="width: 0px; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-right: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(16px);"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; flex-grow: 0; height: 12px; width: 16px; transform: translateY(-4px);"> </div> <div style="width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-left: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(-4px) translateX(8px);"> </div> </div> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 24px;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 224px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 144px;"> </div> </div> <p style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 8px; overflow: hidden; padding: 8px 0 7px; text-align: center; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;"><a style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.instagram.com/reel/DBBICoSpsmS/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A post shared by 7NEWS Queensland (@7newsqueensland)</a> </div> </blockquote> "Australia Post is aware of an incident involving a subcontractor delivery driver, which has also been reported to Police," a spokesperson told Yahoo News Australia on Saturday. "As the footage only shows part of the incident, Australia Post will conduct a full investigation into the matter, however the behaviour shown in the video is not what Australia Post expects of its people." Lamos believed the fight was triggered after the postie reportedly cut the cyclist off and something had been thrown at his face, telling the Daily Mail that the cyclist "followed the postman into complex and that's what I captured." The video gained nearly a million views the day after it was posted on TikTok, with many describing the scene as "embarrassing". However, a few others defended the postie, with one saying: "No stop. This is my postman. He is the kindest person." "I know the postie came out on top but I still feel bad for him. No one should be treated like this at work," another added. “Postie tossed between losing his job or losing his patience,” a third wrote. One person wrote of the cyclist: “I can’t take captain spandex seriously.” Images: TikTok

Legal

Why hurricanes like Milton in the US and cyclones in Australia are becoming more intense and harder to predict

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-dowdy-119002">Andrew Dowdy</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/liz-ritchie-tyo-1509061">Liz Ritchie-Tyo</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/monash-university-1065">Monash University</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/savin-chand-1351050">Savin Chand</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/federation-university-australia-780">Federation University Australia</a> Tropical cyclones, known as hurricanes and typhoons in other parts of the world, have caused huge damage in many places recently. The United States has just been hit by <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start">Hurricane Milton</a>, within two weeks of <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-hurricane-helene-became-a-deadly-disaster-across-six-states-240522">Hurricane Helene</a>. Climate change <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-key-driver-of-catastrophic-impacts-of-hurricane-helene-that-devastated-both-coastal-and-inland-communities/">likely made their impacts worse</a>. In Australia, the tropical cyclone season (November to April) is approaching. The Bureau of Meteorology this week released its <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/cyclones/australia/">long-range forecast</a> for this season. It predicts an average number of tropical cyclones, 11, are likely to form in the region. Four are expected to cross the Australian coast. However, the risk of severe cyclones is higher than average. So what does an average number actually mean in our rapidly changing climate? And why is there a higher risk of intense cyclones? The bureau’s forecast is consistent with scientific evidence suggesting climate change is likely to result in fewer but more severe tropical cyclones. They are now more likely to bring stronger winds and <a href="https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/28/1251/2024/hess-28-1251-2024.pdf">more intense rain and flooding</a>. <h2>Climate change is making prediction harder</h2> Our knowledge of tropical cyclones and climate change is based on multiple lines of evidence <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0189.1">globally</a> and for the Australian region. This work includes our studies based on <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01388-4">observations</a> and <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-018-4497-4">modelling</a>. The bureau’s seasonal outlook in recent years has assumed an average of 11 tropical cyclones occurring in our region (covering an area of the southern tropics between longitudes 90°E and 160°E). It’s based on the average value for all years back to 1969. However, for the past couple of decades the annual average is below nine tropical cyclones. In earlier decades, it was over 12. This long-term downward trend adds to the challenge of seasonal predictions. The most recent above-average season (assuming an average of 11) was almost 20 years ago, in the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/tropical-cyclone-knowledge-centre/history/climatology/">2005–06 summer with 12 tropical cyclones</a>. Since then, any prediction of above-average tropical cyclone seasons has not eventuated. <h2>El Niño and La Niña influences may be changing too</h2> Historical observations suggest more tropical cyclones tend to occur near Australia during La Niña events. This is a result of warm, moist water and air near Australia, compared with El Niño events. The shifting between El Niño and La Niña states in the Pacific region is known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Such events can be predicted with a useful degree of accuracy several months ahead in some cases. For example, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has <a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf">forecast</a>: <blockquote> La Niña is favored to emerge in September–November (71% chance) and is expected to persist through January–March 2025. </blockquote> Based on that, one might expect a higher-than-average number of tropical cyclones for the Australian region. However, the <a href="https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/asl2.502">ENSO influence on tropical cyclones has weakened</a> in our region. It’s another factor that’s making long-range predictions harder. The <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/">bureau’s ENSO outlook</a> is somewhat closer to neutral ENSO conditions, based on its modelling, compared to NOAA’s leaning more toward La Niña. The bureau says: <blockquote> Should La Niña form in the coming months, it is forecast to be relatively weak and short-lived. </blockquote> The bureau’s prediction of an average number of tropical cyclones this season is broadly consistent with its prediction of close-to-average ENSO conditions. <h2>So what does this all mean for this cyclone season?</h2> If we end up getting an average Australian season for the current climate, this might actually mean fewer tropical cyclones than the historical average. The number might be closer to eight or nine rather than 11 or 12. (Higher or lower values than this range are still possible.) However, those that do occur could have an increased chance of being <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/tropical-cyclone-knowledge-centre/understanding/categories/">category 4 or 5 tropical cyclones</a>. These have stronger winds, with gusts typically exceeding 225km per hour, and are more likely to cause severe floods and coastal damage. If we end up getting more than the recent average of eight to nine tropical cyclones, which could happen if NOAA predictions of La Niña conditions eventuate, that increases the risk of impacts. However, there is one partially good news story from climate change relating to this, if the influence of La Niña is less than it used to be on increasing tropical cyclone activity. Another factor is that the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/sst/#/anom/global/weekly/20241006">world’s oceans are much warmer than usual</a>. Warm ocean water is one of several factors that provide the energy needed for a tropical cyclone to form. Many ocean heat <a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=world2">records have been set</a> recently. This means we have been in “uncharted waters” from a temperature perspective. It adds further uncertainty if relying on what occurred in the past when making predictions for the current climate. <h2>Up-to-date evidence is vital as climate changes</h2> The science makes it clear we need to plan for tropical cyclone impacts in a different way from what might have worked in the past. This includes being prepared for potentially fewer tropical cyclones overall, but with those that do occur being more likely to cause more damage. This means there are higher risks of damaging winds, flooding and coastal erosion. Seasonal prediction guidance can be part of improved planning. There’s also a need for enhanced design standards and other climate change adaptation activities. All can be updated regularly to stay consistent with the best available scientific knowledge. Increased preparedness is more important than ever to help reduce the potential for disasters caused by tropical cyclones in the current and future climate. <hr /> The authors acknowledge the contribution of CSIRO researcher <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/hamish-ramsay-19549">Hamish Ramsay</a> during the writing of this article.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/241000/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-dowdy-119002">Andrew Dowdy</a>, Principal Research Scientist in Extreme Weather, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/liz-ritchie-tyo-1509061">Liz Ritchie-Tyo</a>, Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/monash-university-1065">Monash University</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/savin-chand-1351050">Savin Chand</a>, Associate Professor, Applied Mathematics and Statistics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/federation-university-australia-780">Federation University Australia</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-hurricanes-like-milton-in-the-us-and-cyclones-in-australia-are-becoming-more-intense-and-harder-to-predict-241000">original article</a>. </div>

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