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Top politicians not so calculated after all

<p>New South Wales Education Minister Sarah Mitchell and her counterpart in the opposition, Prue Car, were put to the test while appearing live on <em>2GB</em>.</p> <p>The two were chatting to radio host Ben Fordham after a pre-election debate when he presented them with a challenge: a problem from the Year 7 NAPLAN test’s Numeracy section.</p> <p>NAPLAN tests typically consist of multiple choice questions and ones where students must write their answers in the spaces provided. While calculators are permitted outside of the short non-calculator sections, they were far from the hands of Sarah and Prue as Ben sprung his test upon them. </p> <p>Ben opened by explaining to the two that they had to solve the question without the use of the handy devices, and that they had room to show their working, just as any Year 7 would when faced with the same test. </p> <p>“Pears cost $4 per kilogram,” Ben explained, reading from the question posed to the ministers, “Ben buys 4.15 kilograms of pears. How much does Ben pay for the pears?”</p> <p>The two wasted no time in putting pen to paper and getting started, with Ben chuckling that they were “busily working away.” </p> <p>Prue finished working first, cradling her chin in her hand as Ben asked if she wanted to hand in her sheet, before he explained to Sarah when to fill in her answer. </p> <p>“Just like the students do,” he said, “this is a test environment. Your Year 7 students in New South Wales have got to face these questions.” </p> <p>“You’ve outdone yourself with this today, Ben,” Prue remarked, while Sarah continued her calculations. </p> <p>After roughly one minute, both sheets were in Ben’s hands, and he was ready to announce the results. </p> <p>Prue, despite finishing first, got her answer wrong. Upon hearing the news, the minister burst into laughter, with an amused Sarah piping up that she “might be too, Prue.” </p> <p>Ben went on to repeat the question, and shared Prue’s answer of $4.15. </p> <p>“The minister Sarah Mitchell,” he continued, “has got this one right!” </p> <p>The correct answer to the problem? $16.60. </p> <p>“Can I just say, English was my strong suit,” Prue declared in light of her defeat. </p> <p>And to the great amusement of both Prue and Ben, Sarah announced, “so was mine, Prue!” </p> <p><em>Images: 2GB</em></p>

News

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We calculated the impact of ‘long COVID’ as Australia opens up. Even without Omicron, we’re worried

<p>Over the past two years, we’ve learned COVID-19 survivors can develop a range of longer-term symptoms we now call “<a href="https://theconversation.com/long-covid-a-public-health-experts-campaign-to-understand-the-disease-152212">long COVID</a>”. This includes people who did not have severe illness initially.</p> <p>Such <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/WHO-2019-nCoV-Post_COVID-19_condition-Clinical_case_definition-2021.1">longer-term symptoms</a> can affect multiple systems in the body. This can result in ongoing, severe fatigue plus a wide range of other symptoms, including pain, as well as breathing, neurological, sleep and mental health problems.</p> <p>So far, Australia has had far fewer COVID-19 cases than many other nations. But as we <a href="https://www.australia.gov.au/framework-national-reopening">re-open</a>, this situation may change. So we will likely see more long COVID in the months and years ahead.</p> <p>Our research, which we posted <a href="https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1066181/v1">online as a pre-print</a> and so has yet to be independently verified, examined the shifting burden of disease of COVID-19 as Australia re-opens and as high vaccination rates reduce mortality and severe illness.</p> <p>We show how long COVID will increasingly drive the burden of COVID illness, even as death rates decline.</p> <p>We <a href="https://iht.deakin.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/sites/153/2021/12/Briefing-Paper_Long-Covid_Final.pdf">also estimate</a> the likely numbers of long COVID cases we can expect in Australia over the two years following reopening.</p> <p>We wrote this <a href="https://iht.deakin.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/sites/153/2021/12/Briefing-Paper_Long-Covid_Final.pdf">briefing paper</a> before the rise of Omicron, the impact of which we’re yet to fully understand.</p> <h2>Here’s what we did and what we found</h2> <p>We examined the 2021 Delta outbreaks in <a href="https://www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au/victorian-coronavirus-covid-19-data">Victoria</a> and <a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Documents/covid-19-surveillance-report-20211111.pdf">New South Wales</a> in which nearly 140,000 people had been infected by the end of October.</p> <p>We estimated long COVID prevalence using two sources. A large dataset <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/1april2021">from the UK</a> found more than 13% of people had symptoms after 12 weeks. A much smaller study <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666606521001024?via%3Dihub">conducted in NSW</a> found about 5% had symptoms over roughly the same period.</p> <p>Our modelling suggests, by the end of October, the combined Victoria and NSW outbreaks may <a href="https://iht.deakin.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/sites/153/2021/12/Briefing-Paper_Long-Covid_Final.pdf">have already led to</a> 9,450–19,800 people having developed long COVID that could last 12 weeks after their COVID infection.</p> <p>Even more will have experienced long COVID symptoms for a shorter time: 34,000-44,500 people will likely have symptoms for at least three weeks after first becoming ill, but our model indicates more than half will then recover over the following nine weeks.</p> <p>We also estimated the likely consequences for long COVID if we follow Australia’s national re-opening plan, based on interim modelling from the <a href="https://www.doherty.edu.au/uploads/content_doc/DOHERTY_MODELLING_INTERIM_REPORT_TO_NATIONAL_CABINET_17TH_SEPTEMBER_2021.pdf">Doherty Institute</a>, which has since been updated.</p> <p>The Doherty Institute modelled various scenarios with different vaccination rates and public health measures in place. These gave different estimates of COVID-19 cases. We combined these with our upper and lower estimates for long COVID prevalence.</p> <p>We calculated that more limited relaxation of public health measures could generate 10,000-34,000 long COVID cases (people with symptoms lasting at least 12 weeks). More complete relaxation of public health measures could lead to 60,000-133,000 long COVID cases.</p> <p>Based on the longer-term UK data for long COVID prevalence, we calculated 2,000-11,000 people might still be sick a year after their initial infection.</p> <p> </p> <p>What we cannot be absolutely certain about is the impact of vaccination on the expected number of long COVID cases. Some studies suggest that if vaccinated people become infected, this reduces their chance of developing long COVID, but <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03495-2">the evidence remains uncertain</a>.</p> <h2>Many impacts, beyond health</h2> <p>Long COVID can be a debilitating and distressing health condition. It also has a number of economic impacts, for the health system and people’s ability to work.</p> <p>For instance, people with long COVID require <a href="https://ahha.asn.au/publication/health-policy-issue-briefs/deeble-issues-brief-no-40-managing-long-term-health">coordinated care</a> across a range of different health services and specialties.</p> <p>Recent data from the UK’s <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/2december2021">Office for National Statistics</a> indicate that around 1.2 million people reported long COVID symptoms in the four weeks to the end of October. The UK health secretary <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/sajid-javid-long-covid-nhs-b1934861.html">said he was alarmed</a> at the growing scale of this problem for the National Health Service.</p> <p>Indeed, attempts to provide long COVID care through specialised hospital-based clinics in the UK and elsewhere have led to <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/long-queues-for-long-covid-clinics-jk8jr7tt6">long waiting times and uneven access</a>.</p> <p><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436524/original/file-20211209-23-1lleiea.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436524/original/file-20211209-23-1lleiea.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="Exhausted health worker leaning on hospital wall holding cup of coffee" /></a> <span class="caption">Health systems will be under strain, particularly if health workers are struggling with long COVID.</span> <span class="attribution"><a href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/portrait-tired-exhausted-nurse-doctor-having-1698233623" class="source">Shutterstock</a></span></p> <p>By contrast, Australia needs to <a href="https://ahha.asn.au/publication/health-policy-issue-briefs/deeble-issues-brief-no-40-managing-long-term-health">focus urgently on</a> identifying and counting long COVID. It also needs to establish mechanisms to coordinate care for long COVID by mobilising resources across the community and private sectors, not just public hospitals.</p> <p>Meeting the emerging needs of people with long COVID represents an additional burden on health-care systems <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2021/215/11/entering-australias-third-year-covid-19">already battered</a> by COVID and rapidly rising backlogs of care for other conditions.</p> <p>If health-care workers are <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33830208/">particularly at risk</a> of long COVID as some people claim, this will further stretch health systems as they take time out to recover or leave the workforce.</p> <p>Beyond health care, long COVID again highlights weaknesses which were made clear early in the COVID-19 pandemic, but which have not yet been remedied.</p> <p>COVID-19 has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/datablog/2021/oct/12/delta-deaths-expose-australias-great-disadvantage-divide">more severely affected</a> those who are socially and economically disadvantaged, and who rely on insecure employment. We expect long COVID to continue to be over-represented in this already disadvantaged population.</p> <h2>Avoiding COVID-19 in the first place</h2> <p>While societies around the world grapple with addressing the types of disadvantage the pandemic has exposed, there are several steps individual people can take to minimise their risk of long COVID.</p> <p>Obviously, this means minimising your risk of COVID-19 in the first place. This means vaccination, mask wearing where appropriate, and complying with other public health measures.</p> <p>Meanwhile, if you test positive for COVID-19, isolate early, rest and do not return to work until you have fully recovered.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168662/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/martin-hensher-856597">Martin Hensher</a>, Associate Professor of Health Systems Financing &amp; Organisation, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/deakin-university-757">Deakin University</a></em> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/mary-rose-angeles-1274581">Mary Rose Angeles</a>, Associate Research Fellow, Health System Financing and Sustainability, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/deakin-university-757">Deakin University</a></em></span></p> <p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-calculated-the-impact-of-long-covid-as-australia-opens-up-even-without-omicron-were-worried-168662">original article</a>.</p> <p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>

Caring

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How much does COVID-19 weigh?

<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The total mass of COVID-19 globally is currently between 100g and 10kg, according to an estimate </span><a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/118/25/e2024815118"><span style="font-weight: 400;">recently published</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> by Ron Milo of the Weizmann Institute of Science and his colleagues.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The article also details exactly how the team calculated the estimate.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Using the typical viral load of tissues and fluids in the body during the peak of an infection, the researchers estimated that an individual would carry between 1-100 billion viral particles, with a total mass of between 1 and 100 micrograms (between 0.0001 and 0.1 milligrams) during peak infection.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The team then calculated the global mass of the virus by multiplying the viral load by the number of cases globally.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The total number of viral particles globally was also calculated, with the researchers estimating that there have been between one hundred quadrillion and ten quintillion viral particles at any given time, assuming there has been between 1 million to 10 million people infected at close to peak infection over the course of the pandemic.</span></p> <p><strong>Why this matters</strong></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">It was also noted that, for every person infected with COVID-19, the virus particles enter cells and replicate between three and seven times. Each of these replications can also introduce mutations, though not all of them will result in new variants of the virus.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">This allows researchers to calculate an estimated rate of the formation of new genetic variants and form a better understanding of how many cells in different areas of the body can become infected.</span></p>

Body

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Online calculator reveals how likely you are to die from coronavirus

<p>A team of scientists in the UK have built a calculator that can predict a person’s risk of dying from COVID-19.</p> <p>The <a href="http://covid19-phenomics.org/PrototypeOurRiskCoV.html">online tool</a>, developed by researchers at University College London, predicts a one-year mortality rate based on factors such as sex, age, and underlying conditions as well as the levels of coronavirus infection in the population and strain on the health service.</p> <p>The calculator is a part of <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)30854-0.pdf">a study</a> involving 3.8 million health records from England, which concluded that “stringent” restrictions must be sustained to prevent excess deaths.</p> <p>Lead author Dr Amitava Banerjee said older people, particularly those with underlying conditions, were asking what easing coronavirus restrictions could mean for their health.</p> <p>“For example, we show how a 66-year-old man with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease has 6 per cent risk of dying over the next year and there are 25,000 ‘patients like me’ [men of the same age with the same condition] in England,” he said.</p> <p>“The calculator estimates 164 excess COVID-19-related deaths on top of the expected 1,639 deaths over a year in patients in a similar situation.</p> <p>“Our findings show the mortality risk for these vulnerable groups increases significantly and could lead to thousands of avoidable deaths.”</p> <p>The calculator works using a given age, sex, and underlying health condition along with the level of suppression measures in the area using a mortality impact of 1.5 per cent.</p> <p>The tool then calculates the one-year mortality rate, or the number of people with similar characteristics in England who would have died pre-coronavirus from other causes.</p> <p>It also forecasts the excess mortality under the COVID-19 emergency – that is, the number of additional deaths among the group of people due to coronavirus.</p> <p>The study’s co-author Professor Harry Hemingway told <em><a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-death-risk-calculator-uk-university-college-london-study-a9511591.html">Independent.co.uk</a></em>: “Our findings emphasise the importance of delivering consistent preventive interventions to people with a wide range of diseases, who are cared for by a wide range of clinical specialties.”</p>

Technology

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New online tool calculates your fitness age

<p>We all have those moments when we forget how old we really are until we look in the mirror, only to find what looks back at us doesn’t reflect how we feel on the inside. Researchers at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology understand this, and have developed an exciting new tool to help us figure out how old our bodies really are.</p> <p>Simply by entering your gender, height, weight, waist circumference and answering a few lifestyle questions, this smart calculator can determine your VO2max – that is, how much oxygen the body can take in – and tell you how fit you actually are. The Body Mass Indicator (BMI) system has long been questioned for its accuracy, as it doesn’t take into account body fat, muscle mass and waist circumference. The tool’s developers say VO2max is “the most precise measure of overall cardiovascular fitness,” giving an indication of your body’s ability to take in and distribute oxygen.</p> <p>The calculator then measures your VO2max score against others in your age group, revealing your true fitness age.</p> <p>Researchers hope that those who receive a fitness age older than their biological age will be inspired to change their lifestyle habits and decrease their risk of death from lifestyle-related diseases. In fact, studies have shown that 20 minutes of intense exercise three to five times a week can help improve VO2max scores.</p> <p>To find out your fitness age, <a href="https://www.worldfitnesslevel.org" target="_blank"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">click here</span></strong></a>, and share your results with us in the comments below.</p> <p><strong>Related links:</strong></p> <p><a href="/health/body/2016/07/stay-motivated-to-exercise-during-winter/"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em><strong>5 ways to stay motivated to exercise during winter</strong></em></span></a></p> <p><a href="/health/body/2016/07/do-we-gain-weight-in-winter/"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em><strong>Do we really put on weight over the winter months?</strong></em></span></a></p> <p><a href="/health/body/2016/07/doctors-tips-on-living-a-long-and-healthy-life/"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em><strong>Doctor’s tips on living a long and healthy life</strong></em></span></a></p>

Body

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Free online retirement calculators are misleading

<p>Free online retirement calculators are a dime a dozen these days, and a recent study seems to indicate that this may well be an area in life where you get what you pay for.</p> <p>A <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/08/using-a-free-online-retirement-calculator-be-cautious.html" target="_blank"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">recent paper</span></strong></a> from Barry S. Mulholland, assistant professor, Dept. of Personal Financial Planning, Texas Tech University, suggests that many of these online calculators are offering misleading advice and should only ever be used with upmost of caution.</p> <p>The study also suggest that many of these tools offer a level of analysis that is not very accurate, in terms of what an individual needs to enjoy a secure retired life.</p> <p>For the study, Professor Mulholland and his colleagues compared the advice given by professional adviser software with that which was given freely by over 36 of the most commonly-used online retirement calculators found on the internet.</p> <p>And the results where startling.</p> <p>Professor Mulholland wrote, “Only 30 percent of the online tools suggested the clients needed to save more — the other 70 percent gave inaccurate advice by suggesting the family was on track for their retirement goals or gave an answer that wasn't clear on what they needed to do.”</p> <p>“But even the 30 per cent of tools that suggested more savings gave wildly different answers, so some of those may not be very useful.”</p> <p>Professor Mulholland’s paper suggests that part of what makes the advice offered by these online retirement calculators so misleading is the fact that even at the best of times they’re generally drawing from a limited amount of information.</p> <p>Professor Mulholland suggests that if you are going to use an online retirement calculator, make sure it’s one that takes the following aspects into account:</p> <ul> <li>Age</li> <li>Income</li> <li>Assets</li> <li>Rates</li> <li>Household structure</li> </ul> <p>Mulholland suggests in preparation of retirement it’s important to seek professional advice, and, “Keep reassessing on a regular basis... what you need to save for retirement and make the appropriate adjustments over time to successfully meet your retirement goals.”</p> <p><strong>Related links:</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.oversixty.co.nz/finance/retirement-income/2016/04/planning-an-emergency-fund-retirement/"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em><strong>Do you have an emergency fund?</strong></em></span></a></p> <p><a href="http://www.oversixty.co.nz/finance/retirement-income/2016/03/maori-veteran-humbled-by-support-for-cut-pension/"><strong><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Maori Veteran humbled by support for cut pension</span></em></strong></a></p> <p><a href="http://www.oversixty.co.nz/finance/retirement-income/2016/03/products-up-to-date-ageing-population/"><strong><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Are products keeping up to date with the ageing population?</span></em></strong></a></p>

Retirement Income

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How to calculate the bank balance you’ll need to retire

<p>When most people think about retirement, they foresee a need to make sacrifices and reduce their every day spending. For those of you still able to avoid quitting work just yet, it’s imperative that you begin a thorough check on the reality of your spending.</p><p>Do you know exactly how much you spend in a day?</p><p>Knowing how much you cough up before retirement is crucial in determining how much you will need when you’ve completely phased out of working. Budgeting for groceries and bills don’t cut it.</p><p>What are usually left out of budgets are things like: gifts, cash spending, and entertainment. These things are usually averaged out to an approximate number – which is all right when you’re still earning a full-time or part-time income. But when that stops, not looking at how much you really spend each year might leave you underestimating by 20 to 30 per cent.</p><p>Instead of a guesstimate, pull out your credit card reports and bank statements from the last three months and see how they stack up to what you think your average is. If you’re missing any annual expenses from these statements, add them in to your total. This will help you get a clearer picture of how much you spend on average across the year.</p><p>You can get an even clearer picture by doing this exercise for the last twelve months in order to capture everything.</p><p>Since there’s no guessing involved, and the numbers don’t lie, you’ll be armed with the knowledge of exactly how much you’re going to need once you reach full retirement – and whether you need to start cutting back your spending now in order to enjoy a more comfortable retirement.&nbsp;</p>

Retirement Income

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How to calculate the bank balance you’ll need to retire

<p>When most people think about retirement, they foresee a need to make sacrifices and reduce their every day spending. For those of you still able to avoid quitting work just yet, it’s imperative that you begin a thorough check on the reality of your spending.</p><p>Do you know exactly how much you spend in a day?</p><p>Knowing how much you cough up before retirement is crucial in determining how much you will need when you’ve completely phased out of working. Budgeting for groceries and bills don’t cut it.</p><p>What are usually left out of budgets are things like: gifts, cash spending, and entertainment. These things are usually averaged out to an approximate number – which is all right when you’re still earning a full-time or part-time income. But when that stops, not looking at how much you really spend each year might leave you underestimating by 20 to 30 per cent.</p><p>Instead of a guesstimate, pull out your credit card reports and bank statements from the last three months and see how they stack up to what you think your average is. If you’re missing any annual expenses from these statements, add them in to your total. This will help you get a clearer picture of how much you spend on average across the year.</p><p>You can get an even clearer picture by doing this exercise for the last twelve months in order to capture everything.</p><p>Since there’s no guessing involved, and the numbers don’t lie, you’ll be armed with the knowledge of exactly how much you’re going to need once you reach full retirement – and whether you need to start cutting back your spending now in order to enjoy a more comfortable retirement.&nbsp;</p>

Retirement Income

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