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Official interest rates have been cut, but not everyone is a winner

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/isaac-gross-737430">Isaac Gross</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/monash-university-1065">Monash University</a> The Reserve Bank’s decision to cut interest rates for the first time in four years has triggered a round of celebration. Mortgage holders are cheering the fact their monthly repayments are now slightly lower, while the Albanese government hopes the small easing in the cost of living will <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-will-albanese-opt-for-an-april-election-now-a-rate-cut-has-him-breathing-more-easily-250136">lift voters’ moods</a>. This is despite the Reserve Bank’s warnings that <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-reserve-bank-has-cut-rates-for-the-first-time-in-four-years-but-it-is-cautious-about-future-cuts-249704">further rate cuts may not eventuate</a>, depending on how much further progress is made on taming inflation. But it’s important to remember not everybody benefits from an interest rate cut. Some will be worse off. <h2>Savers lose out</h2> Not all Australian households are net borrowers. Many are net savers, retirees or prospective homebuyers, who actually lose out when rates fall. For starters, <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/fsr/2024/sep/contents.html">only about a third of households</a> are in hock to the banks when it comes to a monthly mortgage repayment. Another third of households have paid off their mortgage entirely, and so don’t benefit from a reduction in mortgage interest rates. And the remaining third are renters, who also don’t pay a mortgage. So while this news is generally a good thing for borrowers, a fall in mortgage rates only directly benefits a minority of households. Here are some of the ways lower interest rates might actually hurt rather than help the typical Australian household. <h2>Higher house prices</h2> One of the most immediate effects of lower interest rates is their impact on the housing market. With cheaper borrowing costs, more buyers can afford larger loans, bidding up house prices. This is great if you already own a home, but terrible if you’re still trying to buy one. For young Australians locked out of home ownership, a rate cut makes things even harder. It drives prices higher, forcing prospective buyers to stretch their finances further just to get a foot in the market. <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2024/sp-ag-2024-05-16.html">Reserve Bank calculations </a> suggest that, in the long run, higher house prices from lower rates can outweigh the benefit of lower mortgage repayments. <h2>Lower returns on savings</h2> If you’re a saver rather than a borrower, interest rate cuts are unequivocally bad news. Whether you’re saving for a home deposit, retirement, or just an emergency fund, lower rates mean you earn less on your bank deposits. The money in your savings account is now growing more slowly, making it harder to build wealth over time. Indeed, more than 20 banks actually cut their term deposit rates in advance of the Reserve Bank’s decision on Tuesday, according to <a href="https://www.canstar.com.au/home-loans/banks-slash-term-deposit-rates-february-2025/">Canstar research</a>. Analysis of HILDA data, <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2020/jun/household-wealth-prior-to-covid-19-evidence-from-the-2018-hilda-survey.html#:%7E:text=The%20HILDA%20Survey%20is%20a,observation%20available%20is%20for%202018.">which surveys household wealth and income</a>, suggests net savers tend to be younger households without property, retirees living off savings, and those who are not in full-time employment. For these groups, lower rates mean less income and fewer financial opportunities. <h2>Retirees will feel the squeeze</h2> Many <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2012/dec/pdf/bu-1212-3.pdf">retirees rely on income</a> from interest-bearing assets such as term deposits or cash savings. When rates fall, their returns shrink. The cost-of-living crisis has made it harder for retirees on a fixed income to fund their lifestyles, and a rate cut only makes things worse. While some retirees have exposure to the stock market via superannuation, many prefer the stability of cash savings. With rates falling, they face the tough choice of either reducing their spending or taking on more investment risk in their old age. <h2>Bad news for the dollar, and overseas travellers</h2> When the Reserve Bank cuts rates, it tends to <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/drivers-of-the-aud-exchange-rate.html">weaken the Australian dollar</a>. A weaker dollar makes overseas travel more expensive for Australians. That pint of beer in London, that piña colada in Puerto Rico, or that shopping trip to New York all become pricier. For Australians planning international holidays, rate cuts are a blow. A strong Australian dollar makes travel cheaper, and lower rates work against that. So while mortgage holders might celebrate, anyone hoping to travel overseas finds themselves worse off. <h2>More expensive imports</h2> Just as a weaker Australian dollar makes travel more expensive, it also increases the cost of imported goods. And Australia imports a lot – especially cars and petrol. Since the closure of domestic car manufacturing, all new vehicles sold in Australia are imported. Petrol, the second-largest import, is also sensitive to currency fluctuations. When the Australian dollar weakens due to lower interest rates, the cost of these essential goods rises. For the millions of Australians who rely on their cars for daily life, this is a significant financial burden. This isn’t to say rate cuts don’t benefit a large portion of Australians. Anyone with a significant mortgage debt will find themselves with lower monthly repayments, and that’s undoubtedly a financial relief. But the public narrative around interest rates tends to treat cuts as a universal good, ignoring the many Australians who are left worse off. Falling interest rates are a sign the high inflation that has caused the cost-of-living crisis has abated. That is <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2025/mr-25-03.html">an economic success</a> that ought to be celebrated. But that now rates are falling again, we should at least acknowledge the costs that come with them.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/250140/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> By <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/isaac-gross-737430">Isaac Gross</a>, Lecturer in Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/monash-university-1065">Monash University</a> This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/official-interest-rates-have-been-cut-but-not-everyone-is-a-winner-250140">original article</a>. Image: Shutterstock </div>

Money & Banking

Big banks finally cut fixed-interest mortgage rates

NAB has become the first big bank to announce it has cut its fixed rate mortgages across all loan terms. The bank is the first of the big four banks to cut its fixed rates in 2025, two weeks out from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s first meeting when it is tipped to cut the cash rate. NAB announced on Monday that their lowest fixed rate is now 5.84 per cent, with a deposit of at least 20 per cent on a three-year term. “NAB is the first of the big four banks to cut fixed rates in 2025, with other banks likely to follow,” Canstar data insights director Sally Tindall said. “The cost of wholesale fixed rate funding has started to ease slightly. This, combined with a prospective cash rate cut, should push other banks into moving on fixed rates.” The cuts from NAB come almost two weeks after Macquarie Bank lowered its fixed rates, however, ANZ still has the lowest fixed rate out of the big four banks at 5.74 per cent for a two-year or three-year term. “While a few banks are now starting to sharpen their offerings, fixed rates still have a way to fall before they become fashionable again with borrowers,” Tindall said. “We expect the big four banks in particular to pass on cash rate cuts in full, at least for the first couple of cash rate cuts,” she said. “But we might even see some banks choose to pass on even more to new customers in order to take advantage of that re-engagement for borrowers in what a competitive rate looks like.” “Many homeowners have been waiting for well over a year for a cash rate cut. It’s hard to see them throwing in the towel and switching to a fixed rate now when the RBA is poised to move." “That said, there’s no guarantee we’ll see a barrage of cash rate cuts and borrowers should factor this into their thinking.” Image credits: Shutterstock <p class="mb-4 font-serif text-article-body" style="font-family: var(--font-google-newsreader),serif; box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px solid; margin: 0px 0px 24px; font-size: 1.2275rem; line-height: 26.514px; caret-color: #2a2a2a; color: #2a2a2a;">

Money & Banking

Council cracks down on odd beach trend

A local council on the NSW South Coast has had to put a stop to the latest bizarre measure people have been taking to reserve a spot at the beach. Signs have been raised along Cliff Road in North Wollongong to not use glad wrap to secure public gazebos. "This is a shared public space," the sign read. "The use of cling wrap or any material to enclose picnic shelters is prohibited." Lord Mayor of Wollongong Tania Brown told Today that "it is crazy" council had to even take this kind of action, following the rise in incidents where people were cling-wrapping cabanas and picnic benches at local parks and beaches. "It doesn't happen very often, but it's certainly around those peak days of Christmas, New Year's Eve and we've got Australia Day coming up, so we've seen it starting to increase," Brown said. "So that's why we put signs up as preventative measures to remind people that this is prohibited, that our beach huts are there in public spaces for the benefit of all in our community and they cannot be reserved." Brown said that the signs were put in place so people can come and enjoy what Wollongong has to offer, including 17 of the state's best patrolled beaches. "We've just got to make sure that everybody shares that public space in a courteous and respectful manner," she said. Image: Facebook

Travel Trouble

Council rates raise concern for family rejecting $60m property offer

The Zammit family have refused to sell their 20,000sqm property in Quakers Hill, Sydney for years, but now there are concerns that they may be forced to leave. Despite being surrounded by thousands of houses, the Zammit family have held out on their prime property location, and even refused a <a href="https://www.oversixty.com.au/finance/money-banking/these-guys-have-held-on-why-a-family-turned-down-50-million-for-their-home" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$50 million offer</a> two years ago, a figure that has now gone up to <a href="https://www.oversixty.com.au/finance/money-banking/aussie-family-s-refusal-to-sell-family-home-could-land-them-a-60m-fortune" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$60 million</a>. However, amid all the talk of how the family can keep resisting property developers, social media users now believe that authorities may use a sneaky way to force them out. Many of them believe that the Zammit's will be forced out by rising council rates, which may be increased to a point where the family will no longer be able to afford their home. "If they don't sell out in time the adjusted council rates will get them out in the end," on commenter said. "Yep, that's how they will do it! Rezone, then apply higher rates accordingly until they squeeze them out financially," another added. "Many people I know had their hand forced to sell their dream home in the end due to increases in council rates," a third commented. All of the land around the Zammit's property have been bought by developers who plan to build a new suburb called The Ponds. However, the local council has denied that the family may be forced to move. A Blacktown City Council spokesperson told the Daily Mail that it "has no plans to acquire the property and has not had any negotiations to acquire the property. "The property rate applied to this property is the same as all surrounding residential properties." Commenters from around the world have praised the family for choosing to stay put. "Good on them, why should developers get rich," one wrote. "Don't bow down to greedy big corp," another added. House prices in Quakers Hill rose about 8.5 per cent in 2024, according to PropTrack, which means that the family would've earned an extra $4.25 million on top of their previous offers. <em style="background-color: #ffffff; color: #212529; font-family: -apple-system, 'system-ui', 'Segoe UI', Roboto, 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol', 'Noto Color Emoji'; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box;">Image: 7News

Legal

The Great Wheelie Bin Debate rolls on: What's the correct way?!

Australia is no stranger to heated debates – rugby versus Aussie rules, meat pie versus sausage roll, or which state has the best beaches. But a new challenger has emerged for the crown of most contentious topic: the humble wheelie bin. In the bustling inner-city suburbs, where space is as precious as a parking spot on a Friday night, one resident in Carlton, Sydney, has found themselves at the centre of the latest bin-based brouhaha. The seemingly innocuous act of placing wheelie bins for collection has sparked a clash of titanic proportions between neighbours, with one visually impaired newcomer caught in the middle. According to the frustrated resident, the bins in question have been making a weekly pilgrimage to the worst possible spot. “These people have been leaving their bins blocking the crossing every single bloody week since I moved here in October,” they vented. A photo shared online reveals the crime scene: two wheelie bins defiantly parked at a crossing entryway, appearing to guard it like bouncers at an exclusive nightclub. For anyone not blessed with perfect vision, navigating around them is less of a dance and more of a hazardous obstacle course: <img src="https://oversixtydev.blob.core.windows.net/media/2024/12/wheelie-bins_reddit.jpg" alt="" width="1280" height="720" /> “I’ve been so shocked at how the bins are put out. I see them on the street and I just question how that’s allowed... it’s a freaking jerk move,” the resident continued. Adding to the drama, they highlighted the danger: “I’m visually impaired, it’s not safe to just cross the road anywhere.” Bin battles are nothing new in Australia. Earlier this year, Melbourne residents went head-to-head over the correct bin-spacing protocol. Should there be a gap between bins? Should they form an impenetrable wall of waste? After what we can only imagine was a spirited exchange of opinions (and possibly garbage puns), the local council stepped in to confirm: gaps are indeed preferable. Meanwhile, Georges River Council’s website offers sage advice to would-be bin wranglers: “Avoid obstructing the footpath and driveways”, and for the love of all things recyclable, “never place items on the road or gutters”. This guidance, alas, has yet to penetrate the stubborn psyche of certain Carlton bin-barons. Our beleaguered resident, unwilling to let this trashy behaviour go unchecked, has considered taking direct action. “I’ve thought about taping a note to the bins, asking kindly to please not block the crossing, maybe explaining why it’s dangerous,” they mused. Such a note, perhaps paired with a smiley face or a diagram, could be just the diplomatic olive branch needed to defuse the situation. Or it could escalate into the neighbourhood’s first wheelie bin Cold War. Watch this carefully placed, wheelie-bin sized space. Images: Shutterstock, Reddit

Home & Garden

Councils backflipping after move to cancel Australia Day

In what political analysts are calling "the great municipal U-turn", Victorian councils have put their collective heads together and decided to reconsider their reconsiderations about Australia Day celebrations in 2025 and beyond. For residents of the City of Greater Geelong, this means the local council is back on the Australia Day bandwagon – at least until next Tuesday. Mayor Stretch Kontelj, who is now the face of political flexibility, defended the council’s decision to task the chief executive with preparing yet another report. “It is important to note that Australia Day is a national day proclaimed by the federal government," he said. "And the decision on which date to observe it is not one for local councils to make. Australia Day is a day when we should be reflecting on and celebrating everything that is great and good about this country.” Last year, the council boldly decided to change how Australia Day was celebrated, citing community feedback and consultation with First Nations Peoples. This year, they consulted again, only to discover the community had changed its mind, or possibly just discovered the feedback forms. The City of Greater Bendigo also weighed in by shifting its citizenship ceremony to January 25 last year, rather than January 26. And Strathbogie Shire Council also reversed its decision to stop supporting January 26 celebrations, citing a passionate open letter from the Eurora Australia Day Committee. While we're tempted to dub this latest move "The Great Waffling", councils insist they are simply reflecting the will of the people. Local satirists, meanwhile, are pushing for January 27 to be declared "Reversal Day", where councils could gather to debate reversing their reversals. For now, Victorians can rest assured their councils are hard at work – at least until someone asks for another consultation. Images: Shutterstock

Legal

"Disgraceful": Government red tape causes funeral to be cancelled

A local council has cancelled a funeral just 24 hours before it was set to take place due to government red tape. Ever since Shellharbour local Judy passed away, her brother Ron had been working hard to give her a decent send off. However, less than one day before her planned funeral, the Shellharbour Council cancelled the service over an unpaid burial fee. Ron had been liaising with two government agencies to get payment to council for the burial, which <a href="https://9now.nine.com.au/a-current-affair/sydney-council-cancels-funeral-after-government-fails-to-pay-burial-fee-on-time/60cfa883-6a45-4ff7-badd-1a2e4c52b6aa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A Current Affair</a> said was a matter of one government organisation waiting for a simple sign off from another government agency. Confirmation of the payment came through just one day after the funeral should have gone ahead. Ron was left heartbroken over the cancellation and said the council was "very disrespectful" in their dealings, and said he is owed an apology. "Disgraceful in fact. Low-life mongrels to do that to any family in this sort of situation," Ron told ACA. He says the most devastating part was calling family one by one, including Judy's intellectually disabled son, to deliver the news, as he recalled, "He was in tears. I had to get his support worker over just to calm him down." Shellharbour City Council told A Current Affair via email it was "unable to grant interment rights which are legally required before a burial because the fee hadn't been paid". They went on to say in a statement, "Shellharbour City Council acknowledges the complexity of the burial process and apologises for the hurt the family has experienced." Image credits: A Current Affair

Legal

Australia’s fertility rate has reached a record low. What might that mean for the economy?

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jonathan-boymal-392960">Jonathan Boymal</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/rmit-university-1063">RMIT University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ashton-de-silva-3066">Ashton De Silva</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/rmit-university-1063">RMIT University</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sarah-sinclair-385470">Sarah Sinclair</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/rmit-university-1063">RMIT University</a> Australia’s fertility rate has fallen to a new <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/births-australia/latest-release">record low</a> of 1.5 babies per woman. That’s well below the “<a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/7834459/#:%7E:text=PIP%3A%20Replacement%20level%20fertility%20is,of%202.1%20children%20per%20woman.">replacement rate</a>” of 2.1 needed to sustain a country’s population. On face value, it might not seem like a big deal. But we can’t afford to ignore this issue. The health of an economy is deeply intertwined with the size and structure of its population. Australians simply aren’t having as many babies as they used to, raising some serious questions about how we can maintain our country’s workforce, sustain economic growth and fund important services. So what’s going on with fertility rates here and around the world, and what might it mean for the future of our economy? What can we do about it? <h2>Are lower birth rates always a problem?</h2> Falling fertility rates can actually have some <a href="https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/2007/MR1274.pdf">short-term benefits</a>. Having fewer dependent young people in an economy can increase workforce participation, as well as boost savings and wealth. Smaller populations can also benefit from <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0927537112000620.">increased investment</a> per person in education and health. But the picture gets more complex in the long term, and less rosy. An ageing population can strain pensions, health care and social services. This can hinder economic growth, unless it’s <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21302431/">offset by increased productivity</a>. Other scholars have <a href="https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/publications/end-economic-growth-unintended-consequences-declining-population">warned</a> that a falling population could stifle innovation, with fewer young people meaning fewer breakthrough ideas. <h2>A global phenomenon</h2> The trend towards women having fewer children is not unique to Australia. The global fertility rate has dropped over the past couple of decades, from 2.7 babies per woman in 2000 to <a href="https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/WLD/world/fertility-rate">2.4 in 2023</a>. However, the distribution is not evenly spread. In 2021, 29% of the world’s babies were born in sub-Saharan Africa. This is projected to <a href="https://www.healthdata.org/news-events/newsroom/news-releases/lancet-dramatic-declines-global-fertility-rates-set-transform">rise to 54% by 2100</a>. There’s also a <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/psp.2720">regional-urban divide</a>. Childbearing is often delayed in urban areas and late fertility is more common in cities. In Australia, we see <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/births-australia/latest-release#data-downloads">higher fertility rates</a> in inner and outer regional areas than in metro areas. This could be because of more affordable housing and a better work-life balance. But it raises questions about whether people are moving out of cities to start families, or if something intrinsic about living in the regions promotes higher birth rates. <iframe id="U1wEx" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: 0;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/U1wEx/1/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe> <h2>Fewer workers, more pressure on services</h2> Changes to the makeup of a population can be just as important as changes to its size. With fewer babies being born and increased life expectancy, the proportion of older Australians who have left the workforce will keep rising. One way of tracking this is with a metric called the old-age dependency ratio – the number of people aged 65 and over per 100 working-age individuals. In Australia, this ratio is currently about 27%. But according to the latest <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/publication/2023-intergenerational-report">Intergenerational Report</a>, it’s expected to rise to 38% by 2063. An ageing population means greater demand for medical services and aged care. As the working-age population shrinks, the tax base that funds these services will also decline. Unless this is offset by technological advances or policy innovations, it can mean higher taxes, longer working lives, or the government providing fewer public services in general. <h2>What about housing?</h2> It’s tempting to think a falling birth rate might be good news for Australia’s stubborn housing crisis. The issues are linked – rising real estate prices have made it difficult for many young people to afford homes, with a significant number of people in their 20s <a href="https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/more-australian-adult-children-are-living-with-their-parents-longer">still living with their parents</a>. This can mean delaying starting a family and reducing the number of children they have. At the same time, if fertility rates stay low, demand for large family homes may decrease, impacting one of Australia’s most significant economic sectors and sources of household wealth. <h2>Can governments turn the tide?</h2> Governments worldwide, including Australia, have long experimented with policies that encourage families to have more children. Examples include paid parental leave, childcare subsidies and financial incentives, such as Australia’s “<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-baby-bonus-boost-looks-like-across-ten-years-81563">baby bonus</a>”. Many of these efforts have had only limited success. One reason is the rising average age at which women have their first child. In many developed countries, including Australia, the average age for first-time mothers has surpassed <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/mothers-babies/australias-mothers-babies/contents/overview-and-demographics/maternal-age">30</a>. As women delay childbirth, they become less likely to have multiple children, further contributing to declining birth rates. Encouraging women to start a family earlier could be one policy lever, but it must be balanced with women’s growing workforce participation and career goals. Research has previously highlighted the factors influencing fertility decisions, including levels of paternal involvement and workplace flexibility. Countries that offer part-time work or maternity leave without career penalties have seen a <a href="https://faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu/mdo738/research/Doepke_Hannusch_Kindermann_Tertilt_Handbook_23.pdf">stabilisation or slight increases</a> in fertility rates. <h2>The way forward</h2> Historically, one of the ways Australia has countered its low birth rate is through immigration. Bringing in a lot of people – especially skilled people of working age – can help offset the effects of a low fertility rate. However, relying on immigration alone is not a long-term solution. The global fertility slump means that the pool of young, <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2020/03/can-immigration-solve-the-demographic-dilemma-peri">educated workers from other countries</a> is shrinking, too. This makes it harder for Australia to attract the talent it needs to sustain economic growth. Australia’s record-low fertility rate presents both challenges and opportunities. On one hand, the shrinking number of young people will place a strain on public services, innovation and the labour market. On the other hand, advances in technology, particularly in artificial intelligence and robotics, may help ease the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0164070420302020">challenges of an ageing population</a>. That’s the optimistic scenario. AI and other tech-driven productivity gains could reduce the need for large workforces. And robotics could assist in aged care, lessening the impact of this demographic shift.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/241577/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jonathan-boymal-392960">Jonathan Boymal</a>, Associate Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/rmit-university-1063">RMIT University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ashton-de-silva-3066">Ashton De Silva</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/rmit-university-1063">RMIT University</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sarah-sinclair-385470">Sarah Sinclair</a>, Senior Lecturer in Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/rmit-university-1063">RMIT University</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-fertility-rate-has-reached-a-record-low-what-might-that-mean-for-the-economy-241577">original article</a>. </div>

Money & Banking

Uproar over council's bin "shaming" move

As councils around the country make big changes to the way we dispose of waste, one council's move has left an entire street in Melbourne "offended". On Wednesday morning, Essendon mum Kali took out her bins and thought nothing more of her weekly habit. It was when she came back after a coffee run that she spotted a tag that had "oh no" written in big red letters. "We found items that don't belong in your mixed recycling bin," the note read, identifying reusable shopping bags as the culprit. When she looked around all but one household on her street had the same yellow note. "I came back and saw all these tags on the bins, I thought 'That's a bit weird'," she told Yahoo News Australia. "It was the talk of the street," she said, after finding out that fellow residents were in "uproar" over the tags. Kali, a mum-of-two, has lived in her home for over nine years and said this was the first time she saw the tag on her bin. "It's just a bizarre thing to do," she said. "I thought it was funny that I got bin shamed. I'm sure we're all guilty of [recycling incorrectly], it's an easy mistake. "Our whole street was embarrassed about it," she added, saying "other neighbours were more offended". Kali is adamant that she didn't do anything wrong, as she ensures the bags in her bin were made out of paper, but said that "you don’t know who is putting things in your bin." A council spokesperson told Yahoo that the move was made to "inform" residents. "Council’s intention is to provide information to people at their homes through our kerbside bin education program to create more awareness, so everyone in the community can recycle right," the spokesperson said. "We understand that recycling can be confusing and that there may be a misunderstanding in what can and can’t go into a recycling bin." Images: Yahoo News

Home & Garden

"Absurd" $312 fine for common bin act

Aussies have been warned to not leave out their bins for too long unless they want to cop a $312 fine. An Adelaide resident was stunned after they received a "final warning" letter from their local council, stating it had received complaints over their bins. “How is ‘$312’ justified for leaving a bin out too long on a quiet back road,” the confused resident wrote on Reddit. They also said the penalty was "absurd", however, council said the resident was not fined. Hadi Jafari, another local from Kilburn, said he was "really surprised" about the cost. “$300 for a fine is really hard for people to afford, it is really a lot of money,” he told The Advertiser. He added that his family would struggle to pay the amount if they were fined over the common act. “We would probably have to repay it over time, I don’t think we could pay it at once so that is not good.” Under Port Adelaide Enfield Council’s waste management by-laws, bins have to be placed out after 4pm the night before rubbish collection and taken back in by midnight the day after. Council also clarified that it has only issued four fines in the last five years. Residents caught in the common act first receive a reminder letter that their bins have been reported to council. “However as a final resort expiations may be issued,” council said in a statement. The council said it receives 200 complaints annually in relation to bins being left on the street, however the number of warning letters issued has not been disclosed. Port Adelaide Enfield Council noted other councils also have bylaws in place regarding bin collection. “This is because when people do not remove their bins from footpaths, it can result in impediments to people being able to use the footpath for walking, people with prams, people in wheelchairs, incorrect use of bins and contamination, and it can also impact vehicle and emergency access on streets.” Image: Shutterstock

Legal

"Super uncomfortable for everyone": Qantas plays R-rated movie for every passenger

Qantas has issued an apology after an R-rated movie was played for every passenger onboard a flight from Sydney to Tokyo. On Saturday, the flight was delayed by an hour due to problems with the in-flight entertainment system, which resulted in cabin crew only being able to play one film on everyone's individual screens. After requests were taken by passengers, the movie Daddio was chosen. The 2023 drama stars Sean Penn and Dakota Johnson as a taxi driver and his passenger as they discuss their relationships, including an affair Johnson’s character had with a married man. One passenger took to Reddit to share their experience of the flight, saying it was "extremely inappropriate", due to scenes of “graphic nudity and a lot of sexting”. “The kind where you could literally read the texts on screen without needing headphones,” the passenger wrote. “It was super uncomfortable for everyone, especially with families and kids on board.” Another passenger said the airline made the switch to Inside Out 2 followed by a New Zealand nature show after playing “40 minutes of penis and boobs”. “These poor kids and the parents because y’all should’ve heard the audible gasps across the plane,” the passenger said. Cabin crew members attempted to fix the screens of those who didn't want to watch the R-rated film, but when this didn't work, resorted to switching the movie entirely. “The movie was clearly not suitable to play for the whole flight and we sincerely apologise to customers for this experience,” a Qantas spokesperson stated. “All screens were changed to a family-friendly movie for the rest of the flight, which is our standard practice for the rare cases where individual movie selection isn’t possible." “We are reviewing how the movie was selected.” Image credits: Shutterstock

Travel Trouble

From maxing out to slowing down, how much do heart rates vary across sports?

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/theresa-larkin-952095">Theresa Larkin</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-wollongong-711">University of Wollongong</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/gregory-peoples-1556509">Gregory Peoples</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-wollongong-711">University of Wollongong</a> A classic image of the Olympics and Paralympics is an athlete at the end of a race struggling for breath, their heart obviously racing. But at the other end of the scale are athletes such as archers and shooters, who need to slow their heart rates down as much as possible. Athletes in speed and endurance events regularly push their heart rate to the maximum. But these athletes usually have low heart rates at rest. What causes our heart rates and respiratory (breathing) rates to change so much, and is this healthy? <h2>When heart rates and respiratory rates rise</h2> If you are still and calm as you read this, your heart is probably beating 60–100 times per minute and you are likely breathing 12–20 times per minute. These are the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-should-my-heart-rate-be-and-what-affects-it-98945">normal ranges for a resting adult</a>. During physical activity when muscles are contracting, the muscles need more oxygen to provide them with energy to work. To deliver this extra oxygen (<a href="https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-why-is-blood-red-229121#:%7E:text=Haemoglobin%20is%20like%20a%20red,oxygen%2C%20our%20blood%20is%20red.">carried in our blood</a>), our heart pumps blood faster. In other words, our heart rate increases. We also breathe faster to get more oxygen into our lungs to be delivered to the exercising muscles. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/3YOap5k0R_8?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe><figcaption>Your resting heart rate can tell you plenty about your health and fitness.</figcaption></figure> <h2>How fast can our heart rate get during exercise?</h2> Aerobic means “with oxygen”. In <a href="https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/articles/7050-aerobic-exercise">aerobic exercise</a> (“cardio”) you use large muscles repetitively and rhythmically. For example, walking, running, cycling, swimming and rowing. Muscles that are contracting during aerobic exercise use a lot of energy and need ten times <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4551211/">more oxygen than at rest</a>. High intensity aerobic events that involve large muscles or the entire body cause the highest heart rates. An <a href="https://www.heartonline.org.au/resources/calculators/target-heart-rate-calculator">estimate</a> of maximum heart rate (beats per minute) is 220 minus your age. This equates to 195 beats per minute for a 25-year-old – close to the average age of the Australian Olympic team of 26.5 years. Athletes competing in Olympic events of endurance or speed will reach their maximum heart rate. You can usually only maintain maximum heart rate for a few minutes. But in a 2000-metre rowing race, the rowers maintain intense effort at close to maximum heart rate for 6–8 minutes. This is one of the toughest events for the heart. It’s no wonder rowers often collapse in the boat <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-68731840">as they cross the finish line</a>. Highly trained endurance athletes can have a maximum heart rate higher than expected for their age. <a href="https://olympics.com/en/athletes/eliud-kipchoge">Eliud Kipchoge</a> from Kenya is considered the greatest marathon runner of all time. During his <a href="https://au.coros.com/stories?world-record">world record run</a> in the 2022 Berlin marathon, he ran with a heart rate of around 180 beats per minute for almost the entire race. <h2>How does breathing change with exercise?</h2> Our breathing changes with exercise to increase oxygen uptake from the air. At low-to-moderate intensity exercise, you start to take deeper breaths. This brings in more air and oxygen with each breath. However, there is a limit to how much the chest can expand. With higher intensity exercise, respiratory rate increases to increase oxygen intake. Elite athletes can breathe <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4818249/">more than 50 times</a> per minute. This is driven by <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-breathwork-and-do-i-need-to-do-it-231192">our diaphragm</a>, the most important muscle of breathing. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-28/paris-olympics-grace-brown-cycling-gold-medal-australia/104151466">Grace Brown</a>, Olympic gold medal cyclist in Paris, <a href="https://inscyd.com/article/grace-brown-olympic-gold-physiology/">breathes close to a maximal oxygen uptake</a> when she is cycling at high intensity. <h2>Some athletes need to slow things down</h2> Archery and shooting athletes perform better with a lower heart rate. They time their shots to be <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/3580727/#:%7E:text=Results%20showed%20that%20the%20champion,both%20during%20diastole%20and%20systole">between heart beats</a> when the body is the most still. This is easier with a slower heart rate, with more time between beats. Archers consciously lower their heart rate <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6441821/">prior to shooting</a> by <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6721071/">slowing their breathing</a>. Other Olympians use <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10224217/#:%7E:text=For%20practicing%20slow%20and%20deep,minutes%20before%20starting%20the%20exercise.">breathing techniques</a> to calm pre-race anticipation and high heart rates. Slowing the breath, <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-breathwork-and-do-i-need-to-do-it-231192">especially the exhale</a>, is the best way to lower your heart rate. Beta-blockers also reduce heart rate, by blocking adrenaline. This is why they are on the <a href="https://www.wada-ama.org/en/prohibited-list">prohibited substances list</a> of the World Anti-Doping Agency. <h2>What about resting heart rates?</h2> Athletes often have a <a href="https://www.health.harvard.edu/heart-health/is-a-low-heart-rate-worrisome">low resting heart rate</a>, around 40-50 beats per minute, and slower during sleep. Some are even lower – five time Tour de France winner Miguel Indurain famously had a resting heart rate of <a href="https://www.cyclingweekly.com/fitness/miguel-indurain-vs-your-body-34288">28 beats per minute</a>. Legendary US swimmer Michael Phelps is the <a href="https://olympics.com/en/news/michael-phelps-olympic-medals-record-how-many-gold-swimmer-world-record">most successful Olympian</a> of all time – he had a resting heart rate of <a href="https://www.reanfoundation.org/low-resting-heart-rate-and-lifespan/#:%7E:text=Studies%20on%20Athletes%20and%20Low%20Resting%20Heart%20Rate&text=It%20could%20also%20hint%20at,BPM%20throughout%20his%20professional%20career">less than 40 beats per minute</a>. Regular moderate-to-vigorous intensity aerobic exercise makes the <a href="https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/athletes-heart-rate">heart stronger and more efficient</a>. A stronger heart pumps more blood per beat, which means it doesn’t need to beat as often. Exercise also <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/12477376/">increases vagus nerve</a> activity to the heart and <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms4775">slows down</a> the heart’s pacemaker cells. These both reduce heart rate. <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6306777/">A large review</a> found endurance training and yoga were the best exercises to reduce resting heart rate. But training needs to be maintained to keep resting heart rate low. When elite athletes reduced their training volume by half during COVID lockdown, their <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/5/2970">resting heart rate increased</a>. <h2>What does this mean for our health?</h2> A slower resting heart rate is linked to <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6306777/">longer life expectancy and reduced death from cardiovascular disease</a>. Indeed, <a href="https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/55/4/206">a study</a> of more than 8,000 Olympians from the United States found they lived longer than the general population. So it is healthy to do activities that increase your heart rate in the short-term, whether as an Olympian or Paralympian competing, or a fan with your heart racing watching a gold medal event.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/235594/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/theresa-larkin-952095">Theresa Larkin</a>, Associate professor of Medical Sciences, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-wollongong-711">University of Wollongong</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/gregory-peoples-1556509">Gregory Peoples</a>, Senior Lecturer - Physiology, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-wollongong-711">University of Wollongong</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/from-maxing-out-to-slowing-down-how-much-do-heart-rates-vary-across-sports-235594">original article</a>. </div>

Body

Channel 10 axes another show amid ratings crisis

Channel 10 has decided to axe yet another popular show as they continue to grapple with declining ratings and viewers leaving. Following the cancellation of The Bachelors and The Masked Singer, <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-13449749/Channel-10-axes-amid-ratings-crisis-revealed-Channel-Seven-considering-saving-unlikely-series.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Daily Mail Australia</a> reported that the network was also cancelling Gladiators. Despite the show's success in the UK, the Australian reboot struggled to find the same effect as they failed to sustain their initial viewership. The show produced by Warner Bros and hosted by Beau Ryan and Liz Ellis was launched with high hopes and attracted 395,000 metro viewers during its premiere. However, by the second episode the numbers plummeted to just 196,000 - over half of the initial viewership. Critics on social media were also quick to point out the lack of crowd presence, despite the show being filmed under normal conditions, with one person saying: "It felt like watching an event without any real energy." The Traitors is another the show that was axed by the network after just two seasons, and now an insider has revealed that Channel Seven is considering commissioning the series. "The show's concept has potential, but it needs a fresh approach and a new platform," the insider told Daily Mail Australia. They also shared what's in store for Channel 10 as they attempt to revive their ratings. "Channel 10 is now deciding to put all their eggs in one basket, planning to roll out not one, but two seasons of Australian Survivor in 2025," the insider said. "They are putting together a 10th season special as well as an Australia vs USA Survivor all-star showdown which will be screened simultaneously in America and Down Under." A Channel 10 executive said: "Survivor has consistently performed well for us, and we believe this new approach will reignite audience interest." The Daily Mail reported that they have contacted Channel Seven and 10 for a comment. Image: Ten

What are heart rate zones, and how can you incorporate them into your exercise routine?

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/hunter-bennett-1053061">Hunter Bennett</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-south-australia-1180">University of South Australia</a> If you spend a lot of time exploring fitness content online, you might have come across the concept of heart rate zones. Heart rate zone training has become more popular in recent years partly because of the boom in wearable technology which, among other functions, allows people to easily track their heart rates. <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6537749/">Heart rate zones</a> reflect different levels of intensity during aerobic exercise. They’re most often based on a percentage of your maximum heart rate, which is the highest number of beats your heart can achieve per minute. But what are the different heart rate zones, and how can you use these zones to optimise your workout? <h2>The three-zone model</h2> While there are several models used to describe heart rate zones, the most common model in the scientific literature is the <a href="https://journals.humankinetics.com/view/journals/ijspp/9/1/article-p100.xml">three-zone model</a>, where the zones may be categorised as follows: <ul> <li> zone 1: 55%–82% of maximum heart rate </li> <li> zone 2: 82%–87% of maximum heart rate </li> <li> zone 3: 87%–97% of maximum heart rate. </li> </ul> If you’re not sure what your maximum heart rate is, it can be calculated using <a href="https://www.jacc.org/doi/full/10.1016/S0735-1097%2800%2901054-8">this equation</a>: 208 – (0.7 × age in years). For example, I’m 32 years old. 208 – (0.7 x 32) = 185.6, so my predicted maximum heart rate is around 186 beats per minute. There are also other models used to describe heart rate zones, such as the <a href="https://journals.humankinetics.com/view/journals/ijspp/14/8/article-p1151.xml">five-zone model</a> (as its name implies, this one has five distinct zones). These <a href="https://journals.humankinetics.com/view/journals/ijspp/9/1/article-p100.xml">models</a> largely describe the same thing and can mostly be used interchangeably. <h2>What do the different zones involve?</h2> The three zones are based around a person’s <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.2165/00007256-200939060-00003">lactate threshold</a>, which describes the point at which exercise intensity moves from being predominantly aerobic, to predominantly anaerobic. Aerobic exercise <a href="https://www.healthline.com/health/fitness-exercise/difference-between-aerobic-and-anaerobic">uses oxygen</a> to help our muscles keep going, ensuring we can continue for a long time without fatiguing. Anaerobic exercise, however, uses stored energy to fuel exercise. Anaerobic exercise also accrues metabolic byproducts (such as lactate) that increase fatigue, meaning we can only produce energy anaerobically for a short time. On average your lactate threshold tends to sit around <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.2147/OAJSM.S141657">85% of your maximum heart rate</a>, although this varies from person to person, and can be <a href="https://journals.physiology.org/doi/full/10.1152/japplphysiol.00043.2013">higher in athletes</a>. In the three-zone model, each zone loosely describes <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/physiology/articles/10.3389/fphys.2015.00295/full">one of three types of training</a>. Zone 1 represents high-volume, low-intensity exercise, usually performed for long periods and at an easy pace, well below lactate threshold. Examples include jogging or cycling at a gentle pace. Zone 2 is threshold training, also known as tempo training, a moderate intensity training method performed for moderate durations, at (or around) lactate threshold. This could be running, rowing or cycling at a speed where it’s difficult to speak full sentences. Zone 3 mostly describes methods of high-intensity interval training, which are performed for shorter durations and at intensities above lactate threshold. For example, any circuit style workout that has you exercising hard for 30 seconds then resting for 30 seconds would be zone 3. <h2>Striking a balance</h2> To maximise endurance performance, you need to strike a balance between doing enough training to elicit positive changes, while avoiding over-training, injury and burnout. While zone 3 is thought to produce the largest improvements in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1440244018309198">maximal oxygen uptake</a> – one of the best predictors of endurance performance and overall health – it’s also the most tiring. This means you can only perform so much of it before it becomes too much. Training in different heart rate zones improves <a href="https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/document?repid=rep1&type=pdf&doi=38c07018c0636422d9d5a77316216efb3c10164f">slightly different physiological qualities</a>, and so by spending time in each zone, you ensure a <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/bf00426304">variety of benefits</a> for performance and health. <h2>So how much time should you spend in each zone?</h2> Most <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fspor.2023.1258585/full">elite endurance athletes</a>, including runners, rowers, and even cross-country skiers, tend to spend most of their training (around 80%) in zone 1, with the rest split between zones 2 and 3. Because elite endurance athletes train a lot, most of it needs to be in zone 1, otherwise they risk injury and burnout. For example, some runners accumulate <a href="https://journals.humankinetics.com/view/journals/ijsnem/22/5/article-p392.xml?content=pdf">more than 250 kilometres per week</a>, which would be impossible to recover from if it was all performed in zone 2 or 3. Of course, most people are not professional athletes. The <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/physical-activity">World Health Organization</a> recommends adults aim for 150–300 minutes of moderate intensity exercise per week, or 75–150 minutes of vigorous exercise per week. If you look at this in the context of heart rate zones, you could consider zone 1 training as moderate intensity, and zones 2 and 3 as vigorous. Then, you can use heart rate zones to make sure you’re exercising to meet these guidelines. <h2>What if I don’t have a heart rate monitor?</h2> If you don’t have access to a heart rate tracker, that doesn’t mean you can’t use heart rate zones to guide your training. The three heart rate zones discussed in this article can also be prescribed based on feel using a simple <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1600-0838.2004.00418.x">10-point scale</a>, where 0 indicates no effort, and 10 indicates the maximum amount of effort you can produce. With this system, zone 1 aligns with a 4 or less out of 10, zone 2 with 4.5 to 6.5 out of 10, and zone 3 as a 7 or higher out of 10. Heart rate zones are not a perfect measure of exercise intensity, but can be a useful tool. And if you don’t want to worry about heart rate zones at all, that’s also fine. The most important thing is to simply get moving.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/228520/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/hunter-bennett-1053061">Hunter Bennett</a>, Lecturer in Exercise Science, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-south-australia-1180">University of South Australia</a> Image credits: Getty Images This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-are-heart-rate-zones-and-how-can-you-incorporate-them-into-your-exercise-routine-228520">original article</a>. </div>

Body

Australians are having fewer babies and our local-born population is about to shrink: here’s why it’s not that scary

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/amanda-davies-201009">Amanda Davies</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-western-australia-1067">The University of Western Australia</a> Australians are having fewer babies, so many fewer that without international migration our population would be on track to decline in just over a decade. In most circumstances, the number of babies per woman that a population needs to sustain itself – the so-called <a href="https://www.who.int/data/gho/indicator-metadata-registry/imr-details/123">total fertility rate</a> – is 2.1. Australia’s total fertility rate dipped below 2.1 in the late 1970s, moved back up towards it in the late 2000s (assisted in part by an improving economy, better access to childcare and the introduction of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-baby-bonus-boost-looks-like-across-ten-years-81563">Commonwealth Baby Bonus</a>), and then plunged again, hitting a low of <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/population-projections-australia/2022-base-2071#assumptions">1.59</a> during the first year of COVID. <hr /> <iframe id="CHdqj" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/CHdqj/3/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe> <hr /> The latest population projections from the Australian Bureau of Statistics assume the rate remains near its present 1.6% for <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/population-projections-australia/2022-base-2071#assumptions">the next 50 years</a>. An alternative, lower, set of assumptions has the rate falling to 1.45 over the next five years and staying there. A higher set of assumptions has it rebounding to 1.75 and staying there. A comprehensive study of global fertility trends published in March in the medical journal <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)00550-6/fulltext#%20">The Lancet</a> has Australia’s central case at 1.45, followed by a fall to 1.33 by the end of the century. Significantly, none of these assumptions envisages a return to replacement rate. The bureau’s central projection has Australia’s population turning down from 2037 in the absence of a boost from migration. <hr /> <iframe id="oi55c" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/oi55c/3/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe> <hr /> It’s easy to make guesses about reasons. Reliable contraception has been widely available for 50 years. Rents, mortgages and the other costs facing Australians of child-bearing age appear to be climbing. It’s still <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-17/career-or-baby-michelle-battersby-pregnancy-gender-/103186296">difficult to have a career</a> if you have a child, and data show women still carry the substantive burden of <a href="https://theconversation.com/mind-the-gap-gender-differences-in-time-use-narrowing-but-slowly-191678">unpaid work around the home</a>. The US fertility rate has fallen <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-per-woman-un?tab=chart&time=1950..latest&country=OWID_WRL%7EUSA%7EAUS">much in line with Australia’s</a>. Reporting on <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-birth-rates-are-at-record-lows-even-though-the-number-of-kids-most-americans-say-they-want-has-held-steady-197270">research</a> into the reasons, Forbes Magazine succinctly said a broken economy had “<a href="https://fortune.com/2023/01/12/millennials-broken-economy-delay-children-birthrate/">screwed over</a>” Americans considering having children. More diplomatically, it said Americans saw parenthood as “<a href="https://fortune.com/2023/01/12/millennials-broken-economy-delay-children-birthrate/">harder to manage</a>” than they might have in the past. <h2>Half the world is unable to replace itself</h2> But this trend is widespread. The <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)00550-6/fulltext#%20">Lancet study</a> finds more than half of the world’s countries have a fertility rate below replacement level. <a href="https://theconversation.com/chinas-population-shrinks-again-and-could-more-than-halve-heres-what-that-means-220667">China</a>, which is important for the global fertility rate because it makes up such a large share of the world’s population, had a fertility rate as high as 7.5 in the early 1960s. It fell to 2.5 before the start of China’s <a href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3135510/chinas-one-child-policy-what-was-it-and-what-impact-did-it">one-child</a> policy in the early 1990s, and then slid further from 1.8 to 1 after the policy was abandoned in 2016. <hr /> <iframe id="idC4X" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/idC4X/3/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe> <hr /> South Korea’s fertility rate has dived further, to the world’s lowest: <a href="https://time.com/6488894/south-korea-low-fertility-rate-trend-decline/">0.72</a>. The fertility rate in India, which is now <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/publication/un-desa-policy-brief-no-153-india-overtakes-china-as-the-worlds-most-populous-country/">more populous than China</a>, has also fallen <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?page=&locations=IN">below replacement level</a>. Most of the 94 nations that continue to have above-replacement fertility rates are in North Africa, the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa. Some, including Samoa and Papua New Guinea, are in the Pacific. Most of Asia, Europe and Oceania is already below replacement rate. <h2>A changing world order</h2> The largest high-fertility African nation, <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/the-world-population-in-2100-by-country/">Nigeria</a>, is expected to overtake China to become the world’s second-most-populous nation by the end of the century. But even Nigeria’s fertility rate will sink. The Lancet projections have it sliding from 4.7 to <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)00550-6/fulltext#%20">1.87</a> by the end of the century. The differences mean the world’s population growth will increasingly take place in countries that are among the most vulnerable to environmental and economic hardship. Already economically disadvantaged, these nations will need to provide jobs, housing, healthcare and services for rapidly growing populations at a time when the rest of the world does not. On the other hand, those nations will be blessed with young people. They will be an increasingly valuable resource as other nations face the challenges of an ageing population and declining workforce. <h2>An older world, then a smaller world</h2> Global fertility <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)00550-6/fulltext">halved</a> between 1950 and 2021, shrinking from 4.84 to 2.23. The latest projections have it sinking below the replacement rate to somewhere between 1.59 and 2.08 by 2050, and then to between <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)00550-6/fulltext">1.25 and 1.96</a> by 2100. The world has already seen peak births and peak primary-school-aged children. In <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)00550-6/fulltext">2016</a>, the world welcomed about 142 million live babies, and since then the number born each year has fallen. By 2021, it was about 129 million. The global school-age population aged 6 to 11 years peaked at around 820 million in <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/publication/un-desa-policy-brief-no-152-population-education-and-sustainable-development-interlinkages-and-select-policy-implications/">2023</a>. The United Nations expects the world’s population to peak at 10.6 billion in <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-planet-s-population-will-get-to-10-4-billion-then-drop-here-s-when-we-reach-peak-human-20231213-p5er8g.html">2086</a>, after which it will begin to fall. Another forecast, produced as part of the impressive <a href="https://www.healthdata.org/research-analysis/gbd">Global Burden of Disease</a> study, has the peak occurring two decades earlier in <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext">2064</a>, with the world’s population peaking at 9.73 billion. <h2>Fewer babies are a sign of success</h2> In many ways, a smaller world is to be welcomed. The concern common <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-long-fuse-the-population-bomb-is-still-ticking-50-years-after-its-publication-96090">in the 1960s and 1970s</a> that the world’s population was growing faster and faster and the world would soon be unable to feed itself has turned out to be misplaced. Aside from occasional blips (China’s birth rate in the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1973601">Year of the Dragon</a>) the fertility trend in just about every nation on Earth is downwards. The world’s population hasn’t been growing rapidly for long. Before 1700 it grew by only about <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/population-growth-over-time">0.4% per year</a>. By 2100 it will have stabilised and started to fall, limiting the period of unusually rapid growth to four centuries. In an important way, lower birth rates can be seen as a sign of success. The richer a society becomes and the more it is able to look after its seniors, the less important it becomes for each couple to have children to care for them in old age. This is a long-established theory with a name: the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4116081/">demographic transition</a>. For Australia, even with forecast immigration, lower fertility will mean changes. The government’s 2023 <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/publication/2023-intergenerational-report">Intergenerational Report</a> says that whereas there are now 3.7 Australians of traditional working age for each Australian aged 65 and over, by 2063 there will only be 2.6. It will mean those 2.6 people will have to work smarter, perhaps with greater assistance from artificial intelligence. Unless they decide to have more babies, which history suggests they won’t.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/228273/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/amanda-davies-201009">Amanda Davies</a>, Professor and Head of School of Social Sciences, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-western-australia-1067">The University of Western Australia</a> Image credits: Getty Images This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australians-are-having-fewer-babies-and-our-local-born-population-is-about-to-shrink-heres-why-its-not-that-scary-228273">original article</a>. </div>

Family & Pets

Why Mary Poppins has received a new rating 60 years on

Almost 60 years after Mary Poppins was first released, the classic film has been given a new rating by the British Board of Film Classification (BBFC). The BBFC, which regulates films and video content in the country, changed the rating of the 1964 Disney musical last week from U (Universal) to PG (Parental Guidance) because it features a racial slur once used by white Europeans to refer to the native peoples of southern Africa. "Mary Poppins (1964) includes two uses of the discriminatory term 'hottentots'," a BBFC spokesperson said in a statement to CNN. "While Mary Poppins has a historical context, the use of discriminatory language is not condemned, and ultimately exceeds our guidelines for acceptable language at U." The approaching 60th anniversary of the film is what prompted the BBFC to reexamine the film, as it is set to return to UK cinemas in celebration of the milestone. Even as Mary Poppins remains a treasured part of UK culture, the film has long been criticised for the use of blackface. It's partly in this context that the discriminatory language referenced by BBFC appears in the film. In one scene, the eccentric Admiral Boom asks one of the Banks children if he is going on an adventure to "defeat hottentots." Later in the film, as Admiral Boom sees chimney sweeps with soot-blackened faces dancing in the distance, he shouts, "We're being attacked by hottentots!" and orders a cannon to be fired in their direction. "Hottentot" is a derogatory term used by European settlers to refer to Khoikhoi peoples of South Africa and Namibia, according to the Oxford Dictionary reference. Per the new film rating, children of any age can still watch without an adult present, but parents should consider whether the content might upset younger or more sensitive children, a BBFC spokesperson said. Image credits: Disney

Movies

"It's just not fair": Driver slams council for misleading parking fine

A furious motorist has taken aim at a Sydney council's parking solution that resulted in an "outrageous" and "unjustified" fine. Ben drives to the Campbelltown train station in South West Sydney every day for his workday commute, and has recently been forced to find alternative parking plans due to a major disruption. A multi-deck carpark is being built near the station to accommodate the influx of traffic, but while the site is under construction, a makeshift parking lot has been set up. While the new car park will add 500 parking bays when completed, residents have claimed the council has drastically reduced the number of spaces in the meantime. Ben told <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/sydney-parking-rules-drivers-outrage-over-tiny-detail-in-parking-fine/4cfe4d45-c311-4587-b68a-fc1d017675fc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">9news.com.au</a> parking had become "a nightmare" since the temporary lot opened, leaving many motorists with no option but to park along the fence line. It's this act that saw Ben receive a $129 parking fine in the mail. He was outraged when he was issued a fine on February 9th for "not stand vehicle in a marked parking space" when he had no other parking option. "They've advertised that the temporary car park is the same amount of spaces lost during the construction, which is severely incorrect," he said. "I can only assume they are fining loads of drivers as that space along the fence line is always full of cars parked the same as mine was." Along with the fine itself, ticket inspectors supplied Ben a photo of a wordy and confusing sign located near the entrance to the lot, which only added to his frustration with the local council. He said while there were no marked bays along the fence line, signage was not clear enough to indicate to drivers they weren't allowed to park there. "I mean it's just not fair. It's a temporary gravel parking lot," he said. "They've created this mess and now they are targeting innocent commuters fighting to just leave their car somewhere to catch public transport into work." A spokesperson for Campbelltown City Council told Nine News they understood the construction of the new car park would "create some disruption". "A temporary 113-space parking lot has been opened adjacent to the existing parking lot in order to offset some of the parking loss," they said. The council was "actively monitoring and reviewing the current parking and signage arrangements as well as community feedback, to identify any further improvements that could be made and inform any additional community notification required". "While this review takes place, vehicles will only be fined where a safety risk to both other vehicles and/or pedestrians is identified," the spokesperson said. Image credits: Nine News

Legal

"Pathetic": Council slammed after move against FREE health program

A woman who runs a free mental health yoga program has been ordered to pay the council $10,000 because her classes at St Kilda beach in Melbourne have become too popular. The City of Port Phillip Council was slammed for their actions after they told Eliza Hilmer she must pay them hundreds of dollars per session for her Feel Good Flows classes. Hilmer, who does not make a profit from the classes, said she started the program during the pandemic to help people manage their mental health. “I play by the rules as much as I can,” Hilmer told Yahoo News, adding that she acquired personal trainer permit as requested by the council. “We’ve been operating as an outdoor gathering for mental health practices more than anything, and it’s been really incredible." The classes, which initially attracted a few people, has gained a bit of traction with around 50 to 80 regular attendees. Hilmer encourages her attendees to leave a donation and provides free hot drinks and a live musician at the biweekly sessions. Because of its popularity, the council have classified Feel Good Flows as a commercial event, as the classes exceed the number of people covered by Hilmer's personal training license, and she was ordered to pay $400 a session. Hilmer was also given the option to cap the sessions at 15 people a time, but she said that "this isn't an option" as “many vulnerable people” rely on the service. With Hilmer having to pay three months upfront to keep classes running, the total adds up to $10,000, and locals are furious. "Another pathetic decision by useless bureaucrats,” one wrote on social media. “This council is being very mean spirited. Leave her alone!!” “Keep on going love don’t bow to the council,” a third added. Despite the outrage and being asked to pay to host her free yoga sessions, Hilmer remains positive. “I don’t want to fight,” she said. “The council can be the solution”. Port Phillip Mayor Heather Cunsolo replied saying that while she was "delighted" to see so many taking part in yoga sessions, "the business needs to adhere to its Personal Training Licence" to "ensure our popular public spaces remain available, safe and enjoyable for everyone." “We encourage Feel Good Flows to look at hosting additional yoga sessions on the foreshore to support its growing popularity," the Port Phillip mayor said. “Other businesses operating along the foreshore pay a licence fee for the use of public open space and adhere to the 15 person limit per session. "These capacity limits help provide fair access for many businesses operating with a Personal Training Licence, while minimising any potential disruption for visitors to our foreshore." She added that she has been in contact with Feel Good Flows, and are happy to discuss details further. "If the petition is sent to Council the matter will be heard in the Council Chamber.” Images: Instagram

Legal

Council accused of "endorsing criminals" after statue vandalised

The Yarra City Council has been accused of pandering to those who <a href="https://oversixty.com.au/finance/legal/captain-cook-memorial-vandalised-ahead-of-january-26th" target="_blank" rel="noopener">vandalised</a> a statue of Captain Cook in the days before Australia Day. In the early hours of the morning on January 25th, a statue of the British colonist was sawn off at the ankles, while "The colony will fall" was spray-painted on the stone column. Now, the Victorian city council will vote on whether to remove the statue for good, with one councillor claiming that replacing it would be a "waste of money". However, a spokesperson for local residents said "giving in" to vandals would only encourage such destructive behaviour. "If you're going to let vandals and criminals win, then you might as well give up altogether," Adam Promnitz, founder of the Yarra Residents Collective, told Melbourne radio station 3AW. While Mr Promnitz admitted there were changing conversations around Australia Day in the inner Melbourne are,a he said this was the wrong way to have a discussion about removing the 110-year-old statue. "This isn't the right way to do things," he said. "You don't just get your own way by being destructive and anti-social and causing criminal damage." "How can it be a good outcome for any body when it is basically a green light for vandals and criminals everywhere that we'll let you get away with what you want and you'll get what you want if you behave like this?" Councillor Stephen Jolly said the majority of the council didn't share this view, telling the Herald Sun that replacing the statue would come at a cost that would better spent elsewhere in the community. "Even people who love Captain Cook, who love Australia Day, will see that repairing a statue that costs thousands to fix isn't the most important thing to spend money on," Cr Jolly said. "Residents want better bin services, more childcare services, cheaper swimming pools." "All of these things are a better way of spending the money [than] on a statue that we know is absolutely certain is going to get ripped down again." Image credits: 9News

Legal

"Surely this is a prank": Council slammed for ridiculous parking restriction

Melbourne City Council has been slammed online for offering free parking, but only for a measly 15 minutes. The new initiative, which was shared in a video to the City of Melbourne Instagram account, details how parking fees will be waived for drivers needing to run a quick errand in the CBD, as long as they return to their vehicle within 15 minutes. Drivers can park in a “green signed” parking space such as a ‘2P Meter’, and start a 15-minute session on the Easy-Park app to claim the offer. The council said they introduced the initiative for those who want to “run an errand, support a local business and take in city vibes”. <blockquote class="instagram-media" style="background: #FFF; border: 0; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: 0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width: 540px; min-width: 326px; padding: 0; width: calc(100% - 2px);" data-instgrm-permalink="https://www.instagram.com/reel/C0lApxrt35h/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" data-instgrm-version="14"> <div style="padding: 16px;"> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; align-items: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 40px; margin-right: 14px; width: 40px;"> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 100px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 60px;"> </div> </div> </div> <div style="padding: 19% 0;"> </div> <div style="display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0 auto 12px; width: 50px;"> </div> <div style="padding-top: 8px;"> <div style="color: #3897f0; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 550; line-height: 18px;">View this post on Instagram</div> </div> <div style="padding: 12.5% 0;"> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; margin-bottom: 14px; align-items: center;"> <div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(0px) translateY(7px);"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; height: 12.5px; transform: rotate(-45deg) translateX(3px) translateY(1px); width: 12.5px; flex-grow: 0; margin-right: 14px; margin-left: 2px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(9px) translateY(-18px);"> </div> </div> <div style="margin-left: 8px;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 20px; width: 20px;"> </div> <div style="width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 2px solid transparent; border-left: 6px solid #f4f4f4; border-bottom: 2px solid transparent; transform: translateX(16px) translateY(-4px) rotate(30deg);"> </div> </div> <div style="margin-left: auto;"> <div style="width: 0px; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-right: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(16px);"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; flex-grow: 0; height: 12px; width: 16px; transform: translateY(-4px);"> </div> <div style="width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-left: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(-4px) translateX(8px);"> </div> </div> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 24px;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 224px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 144px;"> </div> </div> <p style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 8px; overflow: hidden; padding: 8px 0 7px; text-align: center; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;"><a style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.instagram.com/reel/C0lApxrt35h/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A post shared by City Of Melbourne (@cityofmelbourne)</a> </div> </blockquote> The initiative, however, has been rinsed online, with many people pointing out that 15 minutes is not enough time to do anything, especially in the CBD. “Surely this is a prank?” one person questioned. “As if you can take in the vibes in 15min. And based where the carpark spots are, you’d barely make it to the shop or restaurant and back in 15,” said another. “15 mins? Such overwhelming generosity,” another commented. “How can you support any business in 15 minutes time? By sprinting to a shop and run back to the car only to find a ticket on the dashboard?,” wrote another person. Despite the negative feedback, City of Melbourne said more than 90,000 people had taken up the free parking offer since it was first introduced in the central city in July. "Drivers are embracing the flexibility of our new free 15-minute parking system, which is opening up the city by giving more drivers access to free parking outside more businesses and services,” Lord Mayor Sally Capp said in a statement in November. “Early data shows our parking improvements are working exactly as intended – keeping spaces turning over outside city businesses, while making it easier to find a park.” Image credits: Instagram

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Australians are having fewer babies and our local-born population is about to shrink: here’s why it’s not that scary

Why Mary Poppins has received a new rating 60 years on

"It's just not fair": Driver slams council for misleading parking fine

"Pathetic": Council slammed after move against FREE health program

Council accused of "endorsing criminals" after statue vandalised

"Surely this is a prank": Council slammed for ridiculous parking restriction

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