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6 countries with 6 curves: How nations that moved fast against COVID-19 avoided disaster

<p>To understand the spread of COVID-19, the pandemic is more usefully viewed as a series of distinct local epidemics. The way the virus has spread in different countries, and even in particular states or regions within them, has been quite varied.</p> <p>A New Zealand <a href="https://www.tepunahamatatini.ac.nz/2020/04/22/effect-of-alert-level-4-measures-on-covid-19-transmission/">study</a> has mapped the coronavirus epidemic curve for 25 countries and modelled how the spread of the virus has changed in response to the various lockdown measures.</p> <p>The research, which is yet to be peer-reviewed, classifies each country’s public health response using New Zealand’s <a href="https://covid19.govt.nz/alert-system/covid-19-alert-system/">four-level alert system</a>. Levels 1 and 2 represent relatively relaxed controls, whereas levels 3 and 4 are stricter.</p> <p>By mapping the change in the <strong>effective reproduction number</strong> (R<sub>eff</sub>, an indicator of the actual spread of the virus in the community) against response measures, the research shows countries that implemented level 3 and 4 restrictions sooner had greater success in pushing R<sub>eff</sub> to below 1.</p> <p>An R<sub>eff</sub> of less than 1 means each infected person spreads the virus to less than one other person, on average. By keeping R<sub>eff</sub> below 1, the number of new infections will fall and the virus will ultimately disappear from the community.</p> <p><strong>Italy</strong></p> <p>Italy was relatively slow to respond to the epidemic, and experienced a high R<sub>eff</sub> for many weeks. This led to an explosion of cases which overwhelmed the health system, particularly in the country’s north. This was followed by some of the strictest public health control measures in Europe, which has finally seen the R<sub>eff</sub> fall to below 1.</p> <p>Unfortunately, the time lag has cost many lives. Italy’s death toll of over 27,000 serves as a warning of what can happen if the virus is allowed to spread unchecked, even if strict measures are brought in later.</p> <p><strong>United Kingdom</strong></p> <p>The UK’s initial response to COVID-19 was characterised by a series of missteps. The government prevaricated while it considered pursuing a controversial “herd immunity” strategy, before finally ordering an Italy-style lockdown to regain control over the virus’s transmission.</p> <p>As in Italy, the result was an initial surge in case numbers, a belatedly successful effort to bring R<sub>eff</sub> below 1, and a huge death toll of over 20,000 to date.</p> <p><strong>New York, USA</strong></p> <p>New York City, with its field hospital in Central Park resembling a scene from a disaster movie, is another testament to the power of uncontrolled virus spread to overwhelm the health system.</p> <p>Its R<sub>eff</sub> peaked at a staggeringly high value of 8, before the city slammed on the brakes and went into complete lockdown. It took a protracted battle to finally bring the R<sub>eff</sub> below 1. Perhaps more than any other city, New York will feel the economic shock of this epidemic for many years to come.</p> <p><strong>Sweden</strong></p> <p>Sweden has taken a markedly relaxed approach to its public health response. Barring a few minor restrictions, the country remains more or less open as usual, and the focus has been on individuals to take personal responsibility for controlling the virus through social distancing.</p> <p>This is understandably contentious, and the number of cases and deaths in Sweden are far higher than its neighbouring countries. But R<sub>eff</sub> indicates that the curve is flattening.</p> <p><strong>Singapore</strong></p> <p>Singapore is a lesson on why you can’t ever relax when it comes to coronavirus. It was hailed as an early success story in bringing the virus to heel, through extensive testing, effective contact tracing and strict quarantining, with no need for a full lockdown.</p> <p>But the virus has bounced back. Infection clusters originating among migrant workers has prompted tighter restrictions. The R<sub>eff</sub> currently sits at around 2, and Singapore still has a lot of work to do to bring it down.</p> <p>Individually, these graphs each tell their own story. Together, they have one clear message: places that moved quickly to implement strict interventions brought the coronavirus under control much more effectively, with less death and disease.</p> <p>And our final example, Singapore, adds an important coda: the situation can change rapidly, and there is no room for complacency.</p> <p><em>Written by Hassan Vally. Republished with permission of <a href="https://theconversation.com/6-countries-6-curves-how-nations-that-moved-fast-against-covid-19-avoided-disaster-137333">The Conversation.</a> </em></p> <p><em> </em></p>

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Why coronavirus curve could flatten in “couple of weeks”

<p>The new measures introduced by the federal and state governments would help flatten the curve in the next couple of weeks, a Nobel prize-winning Australian scientist said.</p> <p>Immunologist Peter Doherty wrote the book <em>Pandemics: What Everyone Needs to Know </em>in 2013 and won the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine in 1996 for uncovering how human immune systems fight viruses.</p> <p>Speaking to <em><a href="https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/coronavirus/nobel-prize-winner-says-virus-curve-will-flatten-in-couple-of-weeks/ar-BB11Dl1x?li=AAgfYrC">The Sydney Morning Herald</a></em>, Doherty said the new measures will not instantly slow down the rise in the number of reported cases.</p> <p>“We may see an upward trajectory for another week – a lot of the people on Bondi may have been infected,” he said.</p> <p>The short-term surge is expected as “the average time to [display] symptoms is five to six days and maybe longer”, and only people showing symptoms have been allowed tests.</p> <p>“I think the steps announced by the Prime Minister and the premiers will dampen this down. I would expect to see the curve flatten in the next couple of weeks, see it start to come down,” he said.</p> <p>The Doherty Institute, the first lab out of China to decode the COVID-19’s structure and share the data to labs around the world, has received funding for research from federal and state governments as well as private donors and philanthropists, he said.</p> <p>“We are moving faster on this than on anything in human history,” Doherty said.</p> <p>“One vaccine in the US is already on trial, it’s already gone into people's arms, and the University of Queensland vaccine is being progressed here and with CSIRO.”</p> <p>He also called for more urgent clinical work, including antibody test on people who have had the virus and recovered.</p> <p>He said the people who may not have displayed any symptoms and not know that they have been infected “won’t spread the disease”, “are perfectly okay to go out and work and live and do anything” and therefore could help alleviate the pressure on the economy.</p> <p>Doherty previously told the <em><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-22/doubt-over-contracting-coronavirus-covid-19-twice/12075878">ABC</a> </em>that people are unlikely to contract COVID-19 twice. “I would think even if it was a reinfection, that your prior infection would give you very rapid immunity and you would recover very quickly,” he said.</p> <p>He estimated a vaccine to the new coronavirus would be available within 12 to 18 months.</p>

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Helen Mirren proudly shows off her curves

<p><span>Dame Helen Mirren has become a world-renowned actress but she has revealed that as a young woman entering the industry, she suffered from terrible insecurities.</span></p> <p><span>In an interview with </span><em><span>Allure,</span></em><span> Helen reflected on her rise to fame in the 1960s and how she hated her curvy figure, as it didn’t conform to the industry’s expectations.</span></p> <p><span>“It was the time of Twiggy, and I did not look like a twig,” she said.</span></p> <p><span>“My cheeks were too fat, legs were too short, breasts too big.”</span></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><span><img width="499" height="779" src="https://oversixtydev.blob.core.windows.net/media/41175/1_499x779.jpg" alt="1 (205)"/></span></p> <p><span>In hindsight, the 72-year-old icon said she can understand why people called her sexy at the time but she struggled with her own appearance as she was different from the popular trend.</span></p> <p><span>“I fell into the cliché of sexiness: blonde hair, tits, waist – which I hated at the time because it was not fashionable,” she said.</span></p> <p><span>“You had to be thin and have a cigarette and only wear black. And I just never fit into that look.”</span></p> <p><span>The Oscar, Emmy and Tony awards winner said that if she had to give her younger self advice she would tell her not to be so polite.</span></p> <p><span>“In those days, you had to,” she told </span><em><span>Allure</span></em><span>. “It's hard to explain how difficult it is to overcome the culture. You become a voice in the wilderness. No one wants to listen.”</span></p> <p><span>In 1975, Helen famously stood up to Michael Parkinson when he said that her figure was getting in the way of her becoming a "serious" actress.</span></p> <p><span>Although Helen held her ground that day, she wishes she had been less concerned with politeness in her younger years. </span></p> <p><em>Image credit: Allure</em></p>

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