How Iran will likely retaliate following US military strikes
<p>US President Donald Trump’s decision to launch airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities has plunged the Middle East into renewed uncertainty, with fears escalating over how Tehran might respond in the coming days.</p>
<p>Speaking from Istanbul on Sunday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi condemned the strikes as a “grave violation” of the UN Charter, international law, and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). In a statement posted to social media, Araghchi warned that Iran has “a variety of options” for retaliation.</p>
<p>“The events this morning are outrageous and will have everlasting consequences,” Araghchi said. “In accordance with the UN Charter and its provisions allowing a legitimate response in self-defence, Iran reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interests, and people.”</p>
<p>UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres voiced deep concern over the escalation, warning of a “growing risk that this conflict could rapidly get out of control”.</p>
<p><strong>Potential Flashpoints for Retaliation</strong></p>
<p>Experts say Iran could target US military interests across the region. With around 40,000 US troops stationed at 19 sites in the Middle East – including 2,500 in Iraq – Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) may turn to its network of proxies in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. The Iran-backed Houthi rebels have already hinted at renewed attacks on US ships in the Red Sea, calling for Trump to “bear the consequences” of the strikes.</p>
<p>Iran might also seek to disrupt global oil trade by attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane for 20 million barrels of oil per day. Such a move could send shockwaves through global markets, pushing up oil prices and jeopardising Trump’s economic agenda.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, hardline voices in Tehran are calling for missile strikes in retaliation. Hossein Shariatmadari, a prominent adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, warned that after the US attack on the Fordow nuclear facility, “it is now our turn.”</p>
<p><strong>Nuclear Fallout</strong></p>
<p>Analysts fear that Trump’s actions could push Iran to abandon diplomacy altogether and accelerate its nuclear ambitions. Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute said the strike “guaranteed that Iran will be a nuclear weapons state in the next five to 10 years”, particularly if hardliners take power.</p>
<p>There is also speculation that Iran may withdraw from the NPT, removing one of the last formal restraints on its nuclear program. Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group said an NPT withdrawal is “quite likely.”</p>
<p><strong>A War of Attrition or Asymmetric Warfare?</strong></p>
<p>Faced with overwhelming US and Israeli military power, Iran could opt for a war of attrition, using asymmetric tactics such as cyberattacks and terrorism to wear down its adversaries. The IRGC, while damaged by Israeli strikes, still retains the capacity to carry out operations both within and beyond the region, experts say.</p>
<p><strong>The Diplomatic Deadlock</strong></p>
<p>Hopes for renewed nuclear talks appear dim. Araghchi said on Sunday that the US had “blown up” diplomatic efforts, accusing both Washington and Tel Aviv of sabotaging negotiations. While talks with European powers reportedly made some progress last week, analysts say the latest escalation has likely shut the door on diplomacy – at least for now.</p>
<p>“Their aim is to force Trump to stop Netanyahu’s war,” said Parsi, referring to Israel’s Prime Minister. “But by doing so, Tehran may have handed Israel a veto on US-Iran diplomacy.”</p>
<p>As the world watches for Tehran’s next move, the stakes could hardly be higher – for Iran, for the region and for global stability.</p>
<p><em>Images: Supplied</em></p>
