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Stormy seas ahead: Why confidence in the cruise industry has plummeted

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jennifer-holland-969445">Jennifer Holland</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-suffolk-3830">University of Suffolk</a></em></p> <p>The cruise industry has weathered many storms, including fairly regular brushes with disease. Outbreaks of <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/vsp/pub/norovirus/norovirus.htm">norovirus</a>, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3294517/">H1N1</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/02/world/americas/measles-scientology-cruise-ship.html">measles</a> have all happened in the not too distant past. Despite this, a cruise has traditionally been regarded as a safe holiday – the kind where you don’t have to worry about a thing.</p> <p>COVID-19 has changed this. Cruise ships were a hotbed of transmission during the early stages of the pandemic, particularly the Diamond Princess, which was quarantined for six weeks in Japan in spring 2020. It had over <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1632">700 confirmed cases</a>, and for a period was the world’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/20/coronavirus-live-updates-diamond-princess-cruise-ship-japan-deaths-latest-news-china-infections?page=with:block-5e4ea39f8f0811db2fafb3ec#block-5e4ea39f8f0811db2fafb3ec">leading COVID-19 hotspot</a> after China. Coverage of this and other ships’ outbreaks has taken its toll.</p> <p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S259019822100035X">Research</a> that I conducted with colleagues in Australia shows that the pandemic has changed how people think of cruise holidays. We surveyed over 600 people in the UK and Australia, both cruisers and non-cruisers, to ask them about their willingness to cruise and future travel intentions, to explore how COVID-19 has affected perceptions of travel and cruise risks.</p> <p>Nearly 45% of interviewees had less belief than before the pandemic that cruise lines are transparent and honest about safety or health issues. Respondents were also fearful of going on a cruise, with 47% saying they don’t trust cruise lines to look after them if something goes wrong. This is staggering for an industry that depends on repeat customers.</p> <p>We further found that 67% of people are less willing to cruise as a result of the pandemic, while 69% said they feel less positive about cruising now. What’s most surprising is that even repeat cruisers said they feel nervous about cruising as a result of the pandemic, with this emotion coming up repeatedly in the survey’s open-ended questions. This is a gamechanger. Until now, loyal cruisers have always come back, with previous disease outbreaks having <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0261517716300309">little</a> <a href="http://ijbssnet.com/journals/Vol_4_No_7_July_2013/2.pdf">impact</a>.</p> <h2>What went wrong?</h2> <p>When the pandemic began, cruise ships immediately suffered high infection rates among passengers and crew. During the first wave, thousands were <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/stranded-at-sea-cruise-ships-around-the-world-are-adrift-as-ports-turn-them-away">stranded onboard</a> ships as they were held in quarantine or <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0160738320302103?via%3Dihub">refused entry to ports</a> as borders closed. By the end of April 2020, <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article241640166.html">over 50 cruise ships</a> had confirmed cases of COVID-19 and at least 65 deaths had occurred among passengers and crew.</p> <p>The story of one ship – the Ruby Princess – gained particular attention. Its passengers were allowed to disembark in Sydney in mid-March, with a number carrying the virus. The ship would go on to be linked to more than <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-53802816">900 COVID-19 cases and 28 deaths</a>. The state of New South Wales later launched a <a href="https://www.dpc.nsw.gov.au/assets/dpc-nsw-gov-au/publications/The-Special-Commission-of-Inquiry-into-the-Ruby-Princess-Listing-1628/Report-of-the-Special-Commission-of-Inquiry-into-the-Ruby-Princess.pdf">public inquiry</a> into the ship’s outbreak and found that the state’s ministry of health made a number of serious errors in allowing passengers to get off.</p> <p>It didn’t take long for cruises to be depicted as <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-24/virus-explosion-in-australia-exposes-cruise-ships-hidden-menace">places of danger and infection</a>, particularly in Australia. Lots of information about COVID-19 on cruise ships was published, especially about the <a href="https://cruiseradio.net/the-cruise-ship-story-mainstream-media-got-wrong/">Ruby Princess</a>, grabbing the <a href="https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&amp;q=Ruby%20Princess">public’s attention</a>. Undoubtedly, this amplified people’s perceptions of risk around cruise holidays. Our study found that the many stories on COVID-19 also reminded the public of previous illnesses and outbreaks onboard cruise ships.</p> <p>Given the high intensity of media interest in Australia, we weren’t surprised to find that perceived risks were higher there compared with the UK, with willingness to cruise lower. This suggests that there could be regional differences in how difficult it is for the industry to recover after the pandemic.</p> <h2>What happens next?</h2> <p>Most respondents in the study said they would wait until it was safe to cruise again – and there’s probably a long way to go on changing the current perception of cruise ships as giant incubators of disease. It’s doubtful pent-up demand from loyal cruisers will be enough to fill cruise ships to capacity – which is critical for <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057%2Fs41278-020-00158-3">long-term economic viability</a> – and so <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-the-cruise-industry-really-recover-from-coronavirus-144704">financial uncertainty</a> grows.</p> <p>The pandemic has been <a href="https://cruising.org/-/media/Facts-and-Resources/Cruise-Industry-COVID-19-FAQs_August-13-2020">catastrophic</a> for the industry so far, with financial losses of US$50 billion (£36 billion), 1.17 million job losses, 18 cruise ships sold or scrapped and at least <a href="https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/cmv-becomes-the-third-cruise-line-to-go-out-of-business-in-a-month">three cruise lines stopping trading</a>. Before the pandemic, a new cruise ship was built <a href="https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/news-headlines/golden-age-med-ports-need-prepare-new-generation-large-ships">every 47 days</a>, and off the back of the industry’s robust growth over the past two decades another <a href="https://cruising.org/en-gb/news-and-research/research/2020/december/state-of-the-cruise-industry-outlook-2021">19 ships</a> are due to enter operation in 2021, despite demand very likely to have fallen.</p> <p>To recover, the industry will need to address people’s perceptions of risk, which our research shows have heightened. Risk perception has a <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/004728759803700209">significant influence</a> on holiday decision-making, and it will be even more critical post-COVID.</p> <p>In the wake of the pandemic, would-be cruisers will need to think about health protocols, outbreak prevention plans, onboard sanitation procedures, social distancing measures and health screenings. Also, they’ll need to consider the implications of potential outbreaks during the cruise. These could result in being quarantined in their cabin, needing to access healthcare, or even the cruise being terminated.</p> <p>All of this creates uncertainty, which adds to perceptions of risk. The industry will need to provide reassuring answers on all of these points to entice holidaymakers back onboard. Cruise companies will also need to convince customers that they are trustworthy and accountable, given the concerns about honesty and transparency raised by our research.</p> <p>Overall, the sector has been devastated by the pandemic. Possibly no other area of tourism has been as widely affected. A return to the robust growth enjoyed previously is unlikely for many years, if ever. But for there to be any chance of this happening, the industry must understand how the pandemic has affected people’s perceptions of cruises and address their concerns.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/152146/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jennifer-holland-969445"><em>Jennifer Holland</em></a><em>, Lecturer in Tourism, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-suffolk-3830">University of Suffolk</a></em></p> <p><em>Image credits: Shutterstock </em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/stormy-seas-ahead-confidence-in-the-cruise-industry-has-plummeted-due-to-covid-19-152146">original article</a>.</em></p> </div>

Cruising

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Australian passport plummets to the bottom tier

<p dir="ltr">Australia’s passport has given a remarkably low score, making it one of the least valuable in the world. </p> <p dir="ltr">An analysis by travel website ParkSleepFly looked at the best and worst value for money passports, with the focus placed on the overall cost of the document compared to the freedom of movement it provides.</p> <p dir="ltr">The final result gave Australia's passport a ranking of 43 out of 48 countries - the sixth-worst value for money passport with a passport value score of only 2.56/10.</p> <p dir="ltr">Other countries that unexpectedly ranked higher than Australia included Romania (2.77) and the  Caribbean island Barbados (2.66).</p> <p dir="ltr">Australia did however come in the top 10 for the equal best mobility score, in which passport holders are able to travel to 103 countries visa-free and 53 countries where a visa is required on arrival.</p> <p dir="ltr">Other countries that scored worse than Australia are: Lichtenstein (1.06), San Marino (1.92), Mexico (1.92), Canada (2.13) and Chile (2.13).</p> <p dir="ltr">New Zealand’s passport did a lot better than Australia’s after being given a ranking of 29 out of the 48 countries. </p> <p dir="ltr">The world’s top 10 best value passports are:</p> <ol> <li dir="ltr" aria-level="1"> <p dir="ltr" role="presentation">United Arab Emirates</p> </li> <li dir="ltr" aria-level="1"> <p dir="ltr" role="presentation">Sweden</p> </li> <li dir="ltr" aria-level="1"> <p dir="ltr" role="presentation">South Korea</p> </li> <li dir="ltr" aria-level="1"> <p dir="ltr" role="presentation">Spain</p> </li> <li dir="ltr" aria-level="1"> <p dir="ltr" role="presentation">Luxembourg</p> </li> <li dir="ltr" aria-level="1"> <p dir="ltr" role="presentation">Hungary</p> </li> <li dir="ltr" aria-level="1"> <p dir="ltr" role="presentation">Slovakia</p> </li> <li dir="ltr" aria-level="1"> <p dir="ltr" role="presentation">Austria</p> </li> <li dir="ltr" aria-level="1"> <p dir="ltr" role="presentation">Latvia</p> </li> <li dir="ltr" aria-level="1"> <p dir="ltr" role="presentation">Germany</p> </li> </ol> <p dir="ltr"><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>

Travel Trouble

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Bank's worrying forecast for when housing prices will plummet

<p>According to the lastest NAB forecast, property prices in Australia are expected to take a turn for the worst this year, before plunging by 11 percent by 2023. </p><p>After the Reserve Bank flagged that interest rates could be on the rise at some point this year, NAB drastically revised their initial outlook on property prices over the next two years.</p><p>In NAB's <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/nab-quarterly-australian-residential-property-survey-q4-2021-51029/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Residential Property Survey</a> for the latest quarter, they have warned, “With our view on rate hikes coming forward, we now expect the turning point in property prices to occur in the second half of 2022.”</p><p>As a result, property is set to rise in value by just three percent this year, compared to a 22 percent boom in 2021 which had not been seen since the mid-1980s. </p><p>While 11 percent seems like a huge drop, the author of the report has reassured that it is a controlled drop. </p><p>“We see this as a relatively orderly decline,” the report noted. </p><p>“It is important to remember this correction comes after a very sharp run up in prices over the last year.”</p><p>As a result of the rising interest rate expectations, NAB brought forward its predictions of a correction. </p><p>“In terms of forecasts, we have brought forward the timing of the correction we expect in house prices to late-2022 as affordability constraints begin to bite and rising mortgage rates place downward pressure on prices,” the bank said. </p><p>“This would offset gains seen in early-2022, so that overall, prices end the year roughly flat. We see this trend continuing through 2023, ending the year around 10 per cent lower.”</p><p>Sydney and Melbourne will be hit hardest, dropping by nearly 12 percent each next year.</p><p>Hobart will face the lowest drop for 2023 at only 4 percent. </p><p>The combined capital city average was forecast to be a 9.4 percent decrease next year.</p><p>NAB have warned that interest rates could be on the rise as early as November this year.</p><p><em>Image credits: Getty Images</em></p><div class="media image" style="color: #000000;font-style: normal;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: normal;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;text-decoration: none;flex-direction: column;align-items: center;width: 705.3308715820312px;margin-bottom: 32px"> </div>

Money & Banking

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Revamped Footy Show plummets in ratings

<p>Last night, <em>The NRL Footy Show</em> returned to Aussie screens with a new main host and panel layout.</p> <p>However, viewers were left unsatisfied with the many changes that had been made to the show, including the replacement of prior main host Paul ‘Fatty’ Vautin with Erin Molan.</p> <p>Disappointed viewers took to social media after the episode had aired to criticise the show, with many fans vowing to never tune in again.</p> <p>NRL player and fan favourite comedian Beau Ryan was even unable to save the dynamic. </p> <p>The backlash of the episode was so intense that an Instagram photo for the Footy Show promoting its return, had to have the comments section disabled.</p> <p>The term “bring back the fat”, a reference to Vautin’s nick name, began to emerge online, while others said the new panel layout reminded them of a councillors meeting.</p> <p>“Watched it, disappointing, boring as hell. Bring back the Fat!!!,” one viewer wrote.</p> <p>Another congratulated Molan on scoring the role but was unimpressed with the delivery.</p> <p>“It's international women’s day but damm @Erin_Molan really? (sleeping emojis).”</p> <p>Other viewers discussed the difference in energy levels, saying that Vautin’s charisma was clearly missing.</p> <p>“I have always watched the footy show but tonight I’m sorry but Erin you are so boring awkward and in no way a capable host. Why do you have a pen in your hand all the time what was with the clip boards the old coffee table that looked like something from the salvos #NRLFootyShow.”</p> <p>“Channel 9 has absolutely butchered both footy shows. NRL footy show did not need change. Was a great show with Fatty. Don’t think I’ll bother watching that dribble again.  </p> <p>“This is the most boring footy show I have ever watched on Channel 9 before I can't believe they let Fatty go. He is the best host on the footy show. I miss his laughter and entertainment on the show. I wish he didn't leave and it's not the same without him,” one viewer wrote.</p> <p>The show also took an awkward turn when Beau Ryan was left without a chair and was forced to kneel next to the other panellists. </p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/footyshow?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#footyshow</a> cringeworthy. poor Beau is kneeling next to the blokes who have chairs...</p> — Adam Williams (@adambou) <a href="https://twitter.com/adambou/status/971705757841289216?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 8, 2018</a></blockquote> <p style="text-align: center;"><img width="499" height="280" src="https://oversixtydev.blob.core.windows.net/media/7816200/1_499x280.jpg" alt="1 (98)"/></p> <p>Molan first joined the NRL Footy Show in 2012 and became a full-time host alongside Beau Ryan in 2015.</p> <p>Vautin began his long stint on the Footy Show in 1994 with Peter Sterling.</p> <p>Last year while he was on a holiday with his family, the 58-year-old received the news that his role on the show would not continue.</p> <p>“In the end nothing lasts forever,” Vautin wrote to WSFM's Brendan Jones.</p> <p>“I had a great run, especially for a short, chubby, red-head who played for both Manly and Queensland.”</p> <p>Did you watch last night’s episode of <em>The NRL Footy Show</em>? If so, share your thoughts on the episode in the comments below.</p>

TV

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Man proposes as AirAsia flight plummets 20,000ft

<p><span>A man on board an AirAsia flight that plummeted 20,000ft in a mid-air emergency used the near-death experience to propose to his girlfriend.</span></p> <p><span>AirAsia fight QZ535 was travelling to Bali after departing from Perth on October 15.</span></p> <p><span>The flight to the Indonesian hot-spot soon turned into chaos when cabin crew announced there was an emergency and deployed the oxygen masks as the plane fell 20,000ft.</span></p> <p><span>With their survival uncertain, London lawyer Chris Jeanes turned to his Perth girlfriend Casey Kinchella and popped the question.</span></p> <p><span>“Luckily she said ‘yes',” the British man said.</span></p> <p><span>“We both reconfirmed with each other when we were on the ground.”</span></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><span><img width="498" height="275" src="https://oversixtydev.blob.core.windows.net/media/44593/1_498x275.jpg" alt="1 (39)"/></span></p> <p><span>Chris revealed that he was planning to propose in Bali but the brush with death sped up the process.</span></p> <p><span>While the couple had a positive story to share following the disaster, other passengers were not in a good mood.</span></p> <p><span>Passengers said their panic was heightened by the behaviour of the cabin crew who were “screaming, looked tearful and shocked”.</span></p> <p><span>“We look to them for reassurance and we didn’t get any, we were more worried because of how panicked they were,” passenger Clare Askew told 7 News.</span></p> <p><span>Other passengers said the only English instructions they received were “crash position" and “brace”.</span></p> <p><span>Several other passengers said they began messaging their family and friends and began praying.</span></p> <p><span>“I messaged my son saying goodbye," one passenger added.</span></p> <p><span>The Australian Transport Safety Bureau is investigating the incident.</span></p> <p><span>In June, an AirAsia flight from Perth to Kuala Lumpur had to <a href="http://www.oversixty.com.au/travel/travel-insurance/2017/06/air-asia-plane-forced-to-make-emergnecy-landing/" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>return because of an engine malfunction</strong></span></a>.</span></p> <p><span>Have you ever been in an mid-air flight air emergency? Tell us in the comments below. </span></p> <p><em>Image credit: 7 News</em></p>

International Travel

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Temperatures set to plummet this weekend

<p>A series of cold fronts are sweeping towards the east of the country bringing huge drops in temperature.</p> <p>On Sunday, Sydney is forecasted to see its coldest morning in almost two years. Hobart and Melbourne will face even colder temperatures.</p> <p>Areas such as Orange, in the NSW Central West, are expected to be hit by the cold fronts with temperatures plummeting to -6C on Sunday, while Canberra is expected to have a low of -7C.</p> <p>The wind chill factor could also reduce temperatures by 10C.</p> <p>Jordan Notara from the Bureau of Meteorology said, “It's going to be a chilly morning, with temperatures expected to be on the cooler end of the scale.”</p> <p>"The reason behind the drop is because Sydney will experience a series of fronts, with one coming down on Sydney on Saturday night.</p> <p>"A high pressure system will also cover the whole state, with clear skies and air measures giving it a cool change."</p> <p>On Saturday, Sydney will see a mostly sunny day with a minimum of 10C and a top of 18C, before plummeting to 5C and a top of 17C on Sunday.</p> <p>Melbourne is expected to have showers all weekend and face a minimum of 4C on Sunday morning and a top of 13C.</p> <p>Hobart will face the cold this weekend with both Saturday and Sunday morning’s forecasted to be 3C. Canberra will be Australia’s coldest capital city with Sunday morning facing a low of -7C.</p> <p>Adelaide will see a low of 3C on Saturday but will struggle to get above 11C making it the chilliest day.</p> <p><em>Image credit: Sky News Weather</em></p>

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