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‘A woman is not a baby-making machine’: a brief history of South Korea’s 4B movement – and why it’s making waves in America

<div class="theconversation-article-body"> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ming-gao-1496188">Ming Gao</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-catholic-university-747">Australian Catholic University</a> In South Korea, a growing number of young women are rejecting societal expectations of marriage, motherhood and heterosexual relationships, known as the “4B Movement” or the “4 Nos”. The “B” is a homophone for the Korean word bi (비/非), meaning “no”, representing the movement’s four principles: bihon (no marriage), bichulsan (no childbirth), biyeonae (no dating) and bisekseu (no sex). By refusing to marry, have children, engage in romance, or participate in sexual relationships with men, 4B feminists seek to redefine their lives outside the confines of traditional gender roles. In the wake of the reelection of Donald Trump, there has been <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-10/donald-trump-win-4b-movement-male-supremacists-make-threats/104575732">increased interest</a> in the 4B movement from women in the United States. But what is the 4B Movement, where did it come from, and how is it reshaping the feminist landscape in South Korea and beyond? <h2>Challenges facing young women</h2> The 4B Movement reflects <a href="https://www.khan.co.kr/national/national-general/article/202004140938001">a broader dissatisfaction</a> among young South Korean women who face instability of housing, digital sexual violence, economic disparities and cultural pressures. It emerged in the mid- to late-2010s, following a surge of interest in feminism in South Korea, and spread primarily through women’s online communities. The roots of the 4B Movement lie in South Korea’s rapid economic transformation and the subsequent challenges it posed for younger generations of the 2000s. For young women, economic insecurity is compounded by systemic gender inequality. South Korea <a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/south-korea-s-gender-pay-gap-worst-in-oecd">consistently ranks</a> worst in the OECD for the gender wage gap, and social mobility remains limited. Against this backdrop, traditional life paths – marriage, childbearing and homemaking – have become less appealing. Living an alternative life without men emerged as a radical strategy for young digital feminists to challenge the rigid patriarchy in South Korea. The <a href="https://www.khan.co.kr/national/national-general/article/202405172212001">senseless killing</a> in 2016 of a woman in a train station toilet by a man in Seoul shocked the nation and fuelled the movement. Online platforms became spaces where women could share their frustrations, critique patriarchal norms and organise protests. During this period communities like radical feminist online groups gained traction. Among these was the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/korean/news-44329328">Tal-Corset</a> (escape the corset) movement, which encouraged women to reject societal beauty standards by foregoing makeup, cosmetic surgery and restrictive clothing. The 4B Movement built on this momentum, targeting not only beauty standards but the very institutions that sustain patriarchy. It collectively challenges the notion that women’s value lies in their ability to support men and sustain the family unit. <h2>‘A woman is not a baby-making machine’</h2> The birth rate in South Korea ranks among the <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/birth-rate-by-country">lowest in the world</a>. The government has long viewed this as a national crisis. Policies such as subsidised housing for newlyweds and tax incentives for families have sought to encourage marriage and childbearing. In 2016, the government launched a national <a href="https://www.womennews.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=248514">pink birth map</a> visualising the number of women of reproductive age in each district. It sparked outrage. Women criticised it as reducing them to reproductive tools, proclaiming, “<a href="https://www.nocutnews.co.kr/news/4713565">my womb is not national property</a>” and “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FsEWD1bi3E">a woman is not a baby-making machine</a>”. For many 4B feminists, these policies represent a stark example of how the state prioritises population growth over women’s autonomy. In response, the movement frames its rejection of marriage and motherhood as an act of political resistance. As one <a href="https://www.womennews.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=111598">protest slogan</a> declared: “End population policies! Stop blaming women”. <h2>Living on their own terms</h2> Despite its growing influence, the 4B Movement faces significant challenges. The radical principles have sparked backlash, with critics labelling participants as selfish or anti-social. Swearing off men as a form of protest against patriarchal structures and traditional marital norms is sometimes (mis)interpreted as implicitly favouring <a href="https://brunch.co.kr/brunchbook/radsview2">lesbianism</a>, given its stance against heterosexual relationships. The movement has also attracted negative political attention. <a href="https://www.khan.co.kr/national/national-general/article/202004140938001">Lee Seung-cheon</a>, a 58-year-old Democratic Party candidate, pledged to introduce “measures to reject the 4B Movement” as part of his policy campaign in 2020. Yet 4B feminists remain steadfast in their vision of a future where women can live on their own terms. Their rejection of traditional life paths is not a retreat into isolation but an attempt to create new ways of being free from patriarchal constraints. As one participant noted, rejecting marriage allows women to envision futures beyond societal deadlines like “<a href="https://brunch.co.kr/@404homealone/34">a woman’s age has an expiration date</a>”. <h2>An international movement</h2> The 4B Movement’s radical critique of patriarchy has resonated internationally. 4B Movement ideas are starting to strike a chord in the US. The movement’s core principles align with broader feminist critiques of patriarchy and capitalism, which have intensified in response to political developments such as Trump’s rhetoric and debates over reproductive rights. In the US, Trump’s presidency (and now his return) has been a flashpoint for feminist activism. Policies restricting access to abortion, coupled with an increase in conservative rhetoric around women’s rights, have galvanised movements that resist patriarchal structures. For American feminists, the 4B Movement offers a framework for resistance that goes beyond economic precarity. It provides a roadmap for rejecting political conflicts, focusing on reclaiming agency by prioritising autonomy over their own bodies and rights. 6B4T is inspired by the 4B Movement and has gained particular attention <a href="https://weibo.com/1263977197/KaFZGjoG4">in China</a>. This version incorporates additional principles, including rejecting consumerism and fostering mutual aid among unmarried women. The spread of 4B ideas across Asia and beyond highlights the universality of feminist struggles. As the movement continues to evolve, its impact extends beyond South Korea, sparking conversations about gender, autonomy and the future of feminism. Whether embraced or contested, the 4B Movement forces society to confront uncomfortable truths about the cost of sustaining patriarchy – and perhaps the possibilities of living without it. <hr /> Correction: 6B4T is inspired by the 4B movement and gained attention in China; it did not originate in China.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/243355/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ming-gao-1496188">Ming Gao</a>, Research Scholar, Gender and Women's History Research Centre, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-catholic-university-747">Australian Catholic University</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-woman-is-not-a-baby-making-machine-a-brief-history-of-south-koreas-4b-movement-and-why-its-making-waves-in-america-243355">original article</a>. </div>

Relationships

Who dies in a heat wave? How to help protect the vulnerable in our communities

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/myles-david-sergeant-1542267">Myles David Sergeant</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/mcmaster-university-930">McMaster University</a> Extreme heat is a silent killer. From time to time, we hear about shocking cases of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/24/football-player-heat-deaths-athlete">football players</a> and other athletes who die suddenly while exerting themselves on hot days. Those deaths are certainly tragic, but statistically they are very rare. Most deaths from extreme heat <a href="https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-heat-related-deaths">are in older people</a>, who frequently die alone inside their homes. They often die slowly, as the heat creeps up to and sometimes past body temperature, especially when heat domes park themselves over cities and keep the temperature high all day and all night. When such deaths happen, they rarely make the news. Of all the climate change disasters our world is already experiencing, heat is the top killer, <a href="https://library.wmo.int/viewer/68500/download?file=1335_WMO-Climate-services-Health_en.pdf&type=pdf&navigator=1">as the World Meteorological Organization reported</a>. The planet was more than <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/08/temperatures-1-point-5c-above-pre-industrial-era-average-for-12-months-data-shows">1.5 C above the pre-industrial baseline</a> for 12 consecutive months from July 2023 to June 2024. In July this year, we saw the hottest three days ever on record, prompting <a href="https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/press-encounter/2024-07-25/secretary-generals-press-conference-extreme-heat">a special statement from United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres</a>. <h2>Health risks and heat</h2> <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK499843/">Our bodies are made to dump excess heat</a> when we are too warm, but that process goes into reverse when the air is warmer than our core temperature. Our other main defence, sweating, doesn’t help when humidity saturates the air, making it impossible for our own moisture to evaporate. For the frail and elderly, who are more likely to be labouring with heart troubles, COPD or other challenges, simply sitting still in a heat wave requires an effort equivalent to walking on a treadmill. The effort is not great, but it is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cjco.2021.10.002">steady and relentless</a>. It exhausts the body, sometimes to the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00117-6">point of no return</a>. Tracking heat-related deaths is challenging, and it’s changing as authorities become more aware of heat as a contributing or underlying factor to deaths by other causes. <a href="https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2006.100081">A paper published by the American Journal of Public Health</a> points out that the 1995 heat wave in Chicago likely contributed to hundreds more deaths than had first been attributed to heat itself. <h2>Who is at risk?</h2> Many people lack air conditioning or a way to get to a place that has it, such as a library, recreation centre or shopping mall. As a result, too many people in cities are forced to <a href="https://wmo.int/publication-series/2023-state-of-climate-services-health">endure long waves of heat</a> — waves that are occurring more frequently, lasting longer, and reaching higher temperatures — in a trend that appears set to continue getting worse. Air conditioning, <a href="https://www.lpm.org/news/2015-07-24/the-history-of-movie-theaters-and-air-conditioning-that-keeps-film-lovers-cool">once a luxury that drew people to summertime movie theatres on hot nights</a>, has become a necessity. Increasingly, it is also a legal requirement, as cities pass bylaws requiring landlords not to allow the temperature in their tenants’ quarters to rise above a certain level. Toronto has <a href="https://www.toronto.ca/home/311-toronto-at-your-service/find-service-information/article/?kb=kA06g000001xvbiCAA">such a bylaw</a> for rental units that have air conditioning available, capping indoor temps at 26 C between June 2 and Sept. 14. Such laws recognize the vulnerability of tenants who lack control over the temperature in their rental units, making heat death an especially urban tragedy, as confirmed in <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/pub/82-003-x/2024006/article/00001-eng.pdf?st=e6jLNMuq">a recent Statistics Canada study</a> between 2000 and 2020. Deaths from extreme heat were more likely in cities with a higher percentage of renter households. During a single week-long heat wave in June 2021 — the year after the period captured in the Statistics Canada study — <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-heat-dome-sudden-deaths-570-1.6122316">B.C.’s chief coroner found that 570 people died from heat-related causes</a> — 79 per cent of them were seniors. <h2>Taking action at the community level</h2> From this Global North perspective, the community members who are most likely to die from extreme heat included: <ul> <li>Those over 65</li> <li>Those with more than one chronic condition (including hypertension, mental health, diabetes, heart disease, lung disease)</li> <li>Socially disadvantaged populations in our communities</li> <li>Those with mobility issues</li> <li>Those experiencing social isolation (living alone)</li> <li>Tenants with lack of air conditioning</li> <li>Those living in an urban heat island</li> </ul> This problem is not going away. Some of the <a href="https://www.intactcentreclimateadaptation.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/UoW_ICCA_2022_04-Irreversible-Extreme-Heat.pdf">actions we can take</a> to protect our most vulnerable community members include: <ul> <li>Increase awareness that excessive heat is not merely uncomfortable, but dangerous.</li> <li>Make sure people are warned about impending heat waves.</li> <li>Advocate for everyone to have access to air conditioning.</li> <li>Check on and support people who live alone, especially those with no air conditioning.</li> <li>Invite people over if you have air conditioning, or help them get to community cooling stations.</li> <li>Help vulnerable people who do not have air conditioning to improvise, by freezing wet cloths, for example, to take out and hang around their necks. Doing this, especially with a fan blowing, can be surprisingly effective.</li> <li>Learn and share the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada/services/publications/healthy-living/fact-sheet-staying-healthy-heat.html">warning signs of heat-related illness</a>.</li> <li>Make sure they drink plenty of water and other replenishing fluids.</li> </ul> While we must do our best to limit climate change to keep our planet from getting ever hotter, we must also make every effort to protect the vulnerable from the impacts of the heat that is already here.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/236829/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/myles-david-sergeant-1542267">Myles David Sergeant</a>, Assistant Clinical Professor, Department of Family Medicine, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/mcmaster-university-930">McMaster University</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-dies-in-a-heat-wave-how-to-help-protect-the-vulnerable-in-our-communities-236829">original article</a>. </div>

Caring

Alice Springs plunged into curfew after wave of violence

The city of Alice Springs has been plunged into a three-night curfew after a wave of violence that saw four police officers allegedly attacked. Northern Territory Police Commissioner Michael Murphy declared the curfew on Monday, which will prevent people of all ages going into the city centre between 10pm and 6am over the next three nights without good reason. "Some of those reasons are if you're fleeing from domestic violence, if you're visiting family, if you have to care for someone, if you're here for employment purposes, if you go into a fast food restaurant or some lawful purpose," Murphy said. He said the curfew area would cover "Anzac Hill, Schwarz Crescent, down to the hospital, from the Stuart Highway across to Leichhardt and Stott Terrace". The curfew is a result of a crime-ridden weekend, where several incidents of violent crime allegedly took place. In the early hours of Sunday morning, a group of four off-duty police officers were allegedly assaulted by a group of 20 young men, while another officer was allegedly run over by a drunk driver outside a bottle shop. "The offending in Alice Springs over the last few days has been unacceptable," NT Chief Minister Eva Lawler said. "The curfew will provide police extra powers to get on top of the situation on the ground in Alice Springs." Commissioner Murphy said he will consider requesting an extension of the curfew if required. "If there is a continuation of harmful conduct, which I hope there is not, we apply some measures now and use the community to help us we should see a turnaround," he said. Lawler said she believed the curfew would be an effective "circuit breaker", but Swinburne University criminology expert Dr Joel McGregor said longer-term measures were required for broader change in the region. "To address any crime problem, interventions that lead to long-term behaviour change are required," he said. <div>"While the Northern Territory curfew may be stopping crimes being perpetuated during the evening, it should not be thought of as a solution to the problems the state is facing." Image credits: Shutterstock </div>

Legal

What are the four waves of feminism? And what comes next?

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sharon-crozier-de-rosa-122804">Sharon Crozier-De Rosa</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-wollongong-711">University of Wollongong</a> In Western countries, feminist history is generally packaged as a story of “waves”. The so-called first wave lasted from the mid-19th century to 1920. The second wave spanned the 1960s to the early 1980s. The third wave began in the mid-1990s and lasted until the 2010s. Finally, some say we are experiencing a fourth wave, which began in the mid-2010s and continues now. The first person to use “waves” was journalist Martha Weinman Lear, in her 1968 New York Times article, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1968/03/10/archives/the-second-feminist-wave.html">The Second Feminist Wave</a>, demonstrating that the women’s liberation movement was another <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/3/20/16955588/feminism-waves-explained-first-second-third-fourth">“new chapter</a> in a grand history of women fighting together for their rights”. She was responding to anti-feminists’ framing of the movement as a “<a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/3/20/16955588/feminism-waves-explained-first-second-third-fourth">bizarre historical aberration</a>”. <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/718868">Some feminists</a> criticise the usefulness of the metaphor. Where do feminists who preceded the first wave sit? For instance, Middle Ages feminist writer <a href="https://blogs.loc.gov/bibliomania/2023/08/30/christine-de-pizan/">Christine de Pizan</a>, or philosopher <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/wollstonecraft/">Mary Wollstonecraft</a>, author of <a href="https://www.penguin.com.au/books/a-vindication-of-the-rights-of-woman-9780141441252">A Vindication of the Rights of Woman</a> (1792). Does the metaphor of a single wave <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/3/20/16955588/feminism-waves-explained-first-second-third-fourth">overshadow</a> the complex variety of feminist concerns and demands? And does this language exclude the <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/718868">non-West</a>, for whom the “waves” story is meaningless? Despite these concerns, countless feminists <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/317322421_Finding_a_Place_in_History_The_Discursive_Legacy_of_the_Wave_Metaphor_and_Contemporary_Feminism">continue to use</a> “waves” to explain their position in relation to previous generations. <h2>The first wave: from 1848</h2> The first wave of feminism refers to the campaign for the vote. It began in the United States in 1848 with the <a href="https://www.loc.gov/exhibitions/women-fight-for-the-vote/about-this-exhibition/seneca-falls-and-building-a-movement-1776-1890/">Seneca Falls Convention</a>, where 300 gathered to debate Elizabeth Cady Stanton’s Declaration of Sentiments, outlining women’s inferior status and demanding suffrage – or, the right to vote. It continued over a decade later, in 1866, in Britain, with the presentation of a <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/about/living-heritage/transformingsociety/electionsvoting/womenvote/parliamentary-collections/1866-suffrage-petition/presenting-the-petition/">suffrage petition</a> to parliament. This wave ended in 1920, when women were granted the right to vote in the US. (Limited women’s suffrage had been introduced in Britain two years earlier, in 1918.) First-wave activists believed once the vote had been won, women could use its power to enact other much-needed reforms, related to property ownership, education, employment and more. White leaders dominated the movement. They included longtime president of the the International Woman Suffrage Alliance <a href="https://cattcenter.iastate.edu/home/about-us/carrie-chapman-catt/">Carrie Chapman Catt</a> in the US, leader of the militant Women’s Social and Political Union <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Emmeline-Pankhurst">Emmeline Pankhurst</a> in the UK, and <a href="https://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/spence-catherine-helen-4627">Catherine Helen Spence</a> and <a href="https://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/goldstein-vida-jane-6418">Vida Goldstein</a> in Australia. This has tended to obscure the histories of non-white feminists like evangelist and social reformer <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Sojourner-Truth">Sojourner Truth</a> and journalist, activist and researcher <a href="https://www.womenshistory.org/education-resources/biographies/ida-b-wells-barnett">Ida B. Wells</a>, who were fighting on multiple fronts – including anti-slavery and anti-lynching – as well as feminism. <h2>The second wave: from 1963</h2> The second wave coincided with the publication of US feminist Betty Friedan’s <a href="https://www.penguin.com.au/books/the-feminine-mystique-9780141192055">The Feminine Mystique</a> in 1963. Friedan’s “<a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smithsonian-institution/powerful-complicated-legacy-betty-friedans-feminine-mystique-180976931/">powerful treatise</a>” raised critical interest in issues that came to define the women’s liberation movement until the early 1980s, like workplace equality, birth control and abortion, and women’s education. Women came together in “consciousness-raising” groups to share their individual experiences of oppression. These discussions informed and motivated public agitation for <a href="https://www.berghahnbooks.com/title/HaeberlenPolitics">gender equality and social change</a>. Sexuality and gender-based violence were other prominent second-wave concerns. Australian feminist Germaine Greer wrote <a href="https://www.harpercollins.com.au/9780007205011/the-female-eunuch/">The Female Eunuch</a>, published in 1970, which <a href="https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-the-female-eunuch-at-50-germaine-greers-fearless-feminist-masterpiece-147437">urged women to</a> “challenge the ties binding them to gender inequality and domestic servitude” – and to ignore repressive male authority by exploring their sexuality. Successful lobbying saw the establishment of refuges for women and children fleeing domestic violence and rape. In Australia, there were groundbreaking political appointments, including the world’s first Women’s Advisor to a national government (<a href="https://www.nma.gov.au/audio/landmark-women/transcripts/landmark-women-elizabeth-reid-181013.mp3-transcript">Elizabeth Reid</a>). In 1977, a <a href="https://www.whitlam.org/women-and-whitlam">Royal Commission on Human Relationships</a> examined families, gender and sexuality. Amid these developments, in 1975, Anne Summers published <a href="https://theconversation.com/damned-whores-and-gods-police-is-still-relevant-to-australia-40-years-on-mores-the-pity-47753">Damned Whores and God’s Police</a>, a scathing historical critique of women’s treatment in patriarchal Australia. At the same time as they made advances, so-called women’s libbers managed to anger earlier feminists with their distinctive claims to radicalism. Tireless campaigner <a href="https://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/rich-ruby-sophia-14202">Ruby Rich</a>, who was president of the Australian Federation of Women Voters from 1945 to 1948, responded by declaring the only difference was her generation had called their movement “<a href="https://nla.gov.au/nla.obj-296328435/findingaid">justice for women</a>”, not “liberation”. Like the first wave, mainstream second-wave activism proved largely irrelevant to non-white women, who faced oppression on intersecting gendered and racialised grounds. African American feminists produced their own critical texts, including bell hooks’ <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Aint-I-a-Woman-Black-Women-and-Feminism/hooks/p/book/9781138821514">Ain’t I a Woman? Black Women and Feminism</a> in 1981 and Audre Lorde’s <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/198292/sister-outsider-by-audre-lorde/">Sister Outsider</a> in 1984. <h2>The third wave: from 1992</h2> The third wave was announced in the 1990s. The term is popularly attributed to Rebecca Walker, daughter of African American feminist activist and writer <a href="https://alicewalkersgarden.com/about/">Alice Walker</a> (author of <a href="https://www.hachette.com.au/alice-walker/the-color-purple-now-a-major-motion-picture-from-oprah-winfrey-and-steven-spielberg">The Color Purple</a>). Aged 22, Rebecca proclaimed in a 1992 Ms. magazine <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20200404030632/http:/heathengrrl.blogspot.com/2007/02/becoming-third-wave-by-rebecca-walker.html">article</a>: “I am not a post-feminism feminist. I am the Third Wave.” Third wavers didn’t think gender equality had been more or less achieved. But they did share <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1464700119842555">post-feminists</a>’ belief that their foremothers’ concerns and demands were obsolete. They argued women’s experiences were now shaped by <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14680777.2016.1190046">very different</a> political, economic, technological and cultural conditions. The third wave has been described as “an <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/beauty/meet-the-woman-who-coined-the-term-third-wave-feminism-20180302-p4z2mw.html">individualised feminism</a> that can not exist without diversity, sex positivity and intersectionality”. Intersectionality, <a href="https://chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1052&context=uclf">coined</a> in 1989 by African American legal scholar Kimberlé Crenshaw, recognises that people can experience intersecting layers of oppression due to race, gender, sexuality, class, ethnicity and more. Crenshaw notes this was a “lived experience” before it was a term. In 2000, Aileen Moreton Robinson’s <a href="https://www.uqp.com.au/books/talkin-up-to-the-white-woman-indigenous-women-and-feminism-20th-anniversary-edition">Talkin’ Up to the White Woman: Indigenous Women and Feminism</a> expressed Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women’s frustration that white feminism did not adequately address the legacies of dispossession, violence, racism, and sexism. Certainly, the third wave accommodated <a href="https://paromitapain.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/10.10072F978-3-319-72917-6.pdf#page=112%22">kaleidoscopic views</a>. Some scholars claimed it “grappled with fragmented interests and objectives” – or micropolitics. These included ongoing issues such as sexual harassment in the workplace and a scarcity of women in positions of power. The third wave also gave birth to the <a href="https://www.nme.com/blogs/nme-blogs/brief-history-riot-grrrl-space-reclaiming-90s-punk-movement-2542166">Riot Grrrl</a> movement and “girl power”. Feminist punk bands like <a href="https://bikinikill.com/about/">Bikini Kill</a> in the US, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/music/2022/nov/28/pussy-riot-beaten-jailed-exiled-taunting-putin">Pussy Riot</a> in Russia and Australia’s <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/mbknev/little-ugly-girls-tractor-album-single-premiere-2018">Little Ugly Girls</a> sang about issues like homophobia, sexual harassment, misogyny, racism, and female empowerment. Riot Grrrl’s <a href="https://www.historyisaweapon.com/defcon1/riotgrrrlmanifesto.html">manifesto</a> states “we are angry at a society that tells us Girl = Dumb, Girl = Bad, Girl = Weak”. “Girl power” was epitomised by Britain’s more sugary, phenomenally popular Spice Girls, who were accused of peddling “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2021/sep/14/spice-girls-how-girl-power-changed-britain-review-fabulous-and-intimate">‘diluted feminism’ to the masses</a>”. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tAbhaguKARw?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe><figcaption>Riot Grrrrl sang about issues like homophobia, sexual harassment, misogyny and racism.</figcaption></figure> <h2>The fourth wave: 2013 to now</h2> The fourth wave is epitomised by “<a href="https://vc.bridgew.edu/jiws/vol25/iss2/10/">digital or online feminism</a>” which gained currency in about <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/3/20/16955588/feminism-waves-explained-first-second-third-fourth">2013</a>. This era is marked by mass online mobilisation. The fourth wave generation is connected via new communication technologies in ways that were not previously possible. Online mobilisation has led to spectacular street demonstrations, including the #metoo movement. #Metoo was first founded by Black activist <a href="https://www.womenshistory.org/education-resources/biographies/tarana-burke">Tarana Burke</a> in 2006, to support survivors of sexual abuse. The hashtag #metoo then went viral during the 2017 Harvey Weinstein <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/10/28/1131500833/me-too-harvey-weinstein-anniversary">sexual abuse scandal</a>. It was used at least <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0747563221002193">19 million times</a> on Twitter (now X) alone. In January 2017, the <a href="https://www.womensmarch.com/">Women’s March</a> protested the inauguration of the decidedly misogynistic Donald Trump as US president. <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Womens-March-2017">Approximately 500,000</a> women marched in Washington DC, with demonstrations held simultaneously in <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Remembering-Womens-Activism/Crozier-De-Rosa-Mackie/p/book/9781138794894">81 nations</a> on all continents of the globe, even Antarctica. In 2021, the <a href="https://catalogue.nla.gov.au/catalog/8564388">Women’s March4Justice</a> saw some 110,000 women rallying at more than 200 events across Australian cities and towns, protesting workplace sexual harassment and violence against women, following high-profile cases like that of Brittany Higgins, revealing <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/29/brittany-higgins-bruce-lehrmann-defamation-trial-evidence-stand-rape-allegations-liberal-party-ntwnfb#:%7E:text=Bruce%20Lehrmann%20has%20brought%20a,Wilkinson%20are%20defending%20the%20case.">sexual misconduct</a> in the Australian houses of parliament. Given the prevalence of online connection, it is not surprising fourth wave feminism has reached across geographic regions. The Global Fund for Women <a href="https://www.globalfundforwomen.org/movements/me-too/">reports</a> that #metoo transcends national borders. In China, it is, among other things, #米兔 (translated as “<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/61903744-9540-11e8-b67b-b8205561c3fe">rice bunny</a>”, pronounced as “mi tu”). In Nigeria, it’s <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=we-F0Gi0Lqs">#Sex4Grades</a>. In Turkey, it’s #<a href="https://ahvalnews.com/sexual-harrasment/dozens-turkish-womens-organisations-issue-statement-backing-latest-metoo-movement">UykularınızKaçsın</a> (“may you lose sleep”). In an inversion of the traditional narrative of the Global North leading the Global South in terms of feminist “progress”, Argentina’s “<a href="https://www.auswhn.com.au/blog/colour-green/">Green Wave</a>” has seen it decriminalise abortion, as has Colombia. Meanwhile, in 2022, the US Supreme Court <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-supreme-court-overturns-roe-v-wade-but-for-abortion-opponents-this-is-just-the-beginning-185768">overturned historic abortion legislation</a>. Whatever the nuances, the prevalence of such highly visible gender protests have led some feminists, like <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14680777.2020.1804431">Red Chidgey</a>, lecturer in Gender and Media at King’s College London, to declare that feminism has transformed from “a dirty word and publicly abandoned politics” to an ideology sporting “a new cool status”. <h2>Where to now?</h2> How do we know when to pronounce the next “wave”? (Spoiler alert: I have no answer.) Should we even continue to use the term “waves”? The “wave” framework was first used to demonstrate feminist continuity and solidarity. However, whether interpreted as disconnected chunks of feminist activity or connected periods of feminist activity and inactivity, represented by the crests and troughs of waves, some believe it encourages binary thinking that produces <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14680777.2016.1190046">intergenerational antagonism</a>. Back in 1983, Australian writer and second-wave feminist Dale Spender, who died last year, <a href="https://www.historyworkshop.org.uk/feminism/radical-books-dale-spender-theres-always-been-a-womens-movement-this-century-1983/">confessed her fear</a> that if each generation of women did not know they had robust histories of struggle and achievement behind them, they would labour under the illusion they’d have to develop feminism anew. Surely, this would be an overwhelming prospect. What does this mean for “waves” in 2024 and beyond? To build vigorous varieties of feminism going forward, we might reframe the “waves”. We need to let emerging generations of feminists know they are not living in an isolated moment, with the onerous job of starting afresh. Rather, they have the momentum created by generations upon generations of women to build on.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224153/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sharon-crozier-de-rosa-122804">Sharon Crozier-De Rosa</a>, Professor, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-wollongong-711">University of Wollongong</a> Image credits: Getty Images This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-are-the-four-waves-of-feminism-and-what-comes-next-224153">original article</a>.

Caring

COVID is surging in Australia – and only 1 in 5 older adults are up to date with their boosters

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/adrian-esterman-1022994">Adrian Esterman</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-south-australia-1180">University of South Australia</a> Do you have family members or friends sick with a respiratory infection? If so, there’s a good chance it’s COVID, caused by the JN.1 variant currently circulating in Australia. In particular, New South Wales is reportedly experiencing its <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-09/nsw-sydney-covid-variant-virus-pandemic-hospitalisations/103298610">highest levels</a> of COVID infections in a year, while Victoria is said to be facing a “<a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/victoria-in-midst-of-double-wave-of-covid19--as-jn1-triggers-infections-surge/4dada2cb-7d56-436a-9490-cad1d908a29a">double wave</a>” after a surge late last year. But nearly four years into the pandemic, data collection is less comprehensive than it was, and of course, fewer people are testing. So what do we know about the extent of this wave? And importantly, are we adequately protected? <h2>Difficulties with data</h2> Tracking COVID numbers was easier in the first half of last year, when each state and territory provided a weekly update, giving us data on case notifications, hospitalisations, ICU numbers and deaths. In the second half of the year some states and territories switched to less frequent reporting while others stopped their regular updates. As a result, different jurisdictions now report at different intervals and provide varying statistics. For example, <a href="https://www.health.vic.gov.au/infectious-diseases/victorian-covid-19-surveillance-report">Victoria</a> still provides weekly reports, while NSW publishes <a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Documents/respiratory-surveillance-20240106.pdf">fortnightly updates</a>. While each offer different metrics, we can gather – particularly from data on hospitalisations – that both states are experiencing a wave. We’re also seeing high levels of COVID <a href="https://www.health.vic.gov.au/infectious-diseases/victorian-covid-19-surveillance-report">in wastewater</a>. Meanwhile, <a href="https://health.nt.gov.au/covid-19/data">Northern Territory Health</a> simply tell you to go to the Australian government’s Department of Health website for COVID data. This houses the only national COVID <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/topics/covid-19/reporting?language=und">data collection</a>. Unfortunately, it’s not up to date, difficult to use, and, depending on the statistic, often provides no state and territory breakdowns. Actual case notifications are provided on a separate <a href="https://nindss.health.gov.au/pbi-dashboard/">website</a>, although given the lack of testing, these are likely to be highly inaccurate. The <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/topics/covid-19/reporting?language=und">Department of Health website</a> does provide some other data that gives us clues as to what’s happening. For example, as of one month ago, there were 317 active outbreaks of COVID in aged care homes. This figure has been generally rising since September. Monthly prescriptions for antivirals on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme were increasing rapidly in November, but we are not given more recent data on this. It’s also difficult to obtain information about currently circulating strains. Data expert Mike Honey provides a regularly updated <a href="https://github.com/Mike-Honey/covid-19-genomes?tab=readme-ov-file#readme">snapshot</a> for Australia based on data from GISAID (the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data) that shows JN.1 rising in prevalence and accounting for about 40% of samples two weeks ago. The proportion is presumably higher now. <h2>What’s happening elsewhere?</h2> Many other countries are currently going through a COVID wave, probably driven to a large extent by JN.1. These include <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/506301/covid-19-complacency-waning-immunity-contribute-to-fifth-wave-epidemiologist">New Zealand</a>, <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/facemasks-mandatory-spain-hospitals-b2475563.html">Spain, Greece</a> and the United States. According to cardiologist and scientist Eric Topol, the US is currently experiencing its <a href="https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2024-01-04/covid-2024-flu-virus-vaccine">second biggest wave</a> since the start of the pandemic, linked to JN.1. <h2>Are vaccines still effective?</h2> It’s expected the current COVID vaccines, which target the omicron variant XBB.1.5, are still <a href="https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/seven-things-you-need-know-about-jn1-covid-19-variant">effective</a> at reducing hospitalisations and deaths from JN.1 (also an omicron offshoot). The Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (ATAGI) updated their <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/news/atagi-update-on-the-covid-19-vaccination-program">advice</a> on booster shots in September last year. They recommended adults aged over 75 should receive an additional COVID vaccine dose in 2023 if six months had passed since their last dose. They also suggest all adults aged 65 to 74 (plus adults of any age who are severely immunocompromised) should consider getting an updated booster. They say younger people or older adults who are not severely immunocompromised and have already had a dose in 2023 don’t need further doses. This advice is very confusing. For example, although ATAGI does not recommend additional booster shots for younger age groups, does this mean they’re not allowed to have one? In any case, as of <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-update-8-december-2023?language=en">December 6</a>, only 19% of people aged 65 and over had received a booster shot in the last six months. For those aged 75 and over, this figure is 23%. Where is the messaging to these at-risk groups explaining why updating their boosters is so important? <h2>Should we be concerned by this wave?</h2> That depends on who we mean by “we”. For those who are vulnerable, absolutely. Mainly because so few have received an updated booster shot and very few people, including the elderly, are wearing masks. For the majority of people, a COVID infection is unlikely to be serious. The biggest concern for younger people is the risk of long COVID, which research suggests <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02051-3">increases</a> with each reinfection. <h2>What should we expect in 2024?</h2> It’s highly likely we will see repeated waves of infections over the next 12 months and beyond, mainly caused by waning immunity from previous infection, vaccination or both, and new subvariants. Unless a new subvariant causes more severe disease (and at this stage, there’s no evidence JN.1 does), we should be able to manage quite well, without our hospitals becoming overwhelmed. However, we should be doing more to protect our vulnerable population. Having only one in five older people up to date with a booster and more than 300 outbreaks in aged care homes is not acceptable. For those who are vulnerable, the usual advice applies. Make sure you’re up to date with your booster shots, wear a P2/N95 mask when out and about, and if you do get infected, take antivirals as soon as possible.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220839/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/adrian-esterman-1022994">Adrian Esterman</a>, Professor of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-south-australia-1180">University of South Australia</a> Image credits: Getty Images This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-is-surging-in-australia-and-only-1-in-5-older-adults-are-up-to-date-with-their-boosters-220839">original article</a>.

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COVID wave: what’s the latest on antiviral drugs, and who is eligible in Australia?

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jessica-pace-1401278">Jessica Pace</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841">University of Sydney</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/nial-wheate-96839">Nial Wheate</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841">University of Sydney</a> Australia is experiencing a <a href="https://theconversation.com/were-in-a-new-covid-wave-what-can-we-expect-this-time-216820">fresh wave of COVID</a>, seeing increasing cases, more hospitalisations and a greater number of prescriptions for COVID antivirals dispensed over recent months. In the early days of the pandemic, the only medicines available were those that treated the symptoms of the virus. These included steroids and analgesics such as paracetamol and ibuprofen to treat pain and fever. We now have two drugs called <a href="https://www.health.wa.gov.au/%7E/media/Corp/Documents/Health-for/Infectious-disease/COVID19/Treatment/COVID19-PAXLOVID-Patient-information.pdf">Paxlovid</a> and <a href="https://www.sahealth.sa.gov.au/wps/wcm/connect/abefa4a4-ecaa-4c26-8713-d80c90388545/COVID-19+Treatment+Fact+Sheet+-+Molnupiravir+-+Prescribers+20220428.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-abefa4a4-ecaa-4c26-8713-d80c90388545-oIRWpvB">Lagevrio</a> that treat the virus itself. But are these drugs effective against current variants? And who is eligible to receive them? Here’s what to know about COVID antivirals as we navigate this <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/a-slightly-more-dangerous-place-australia-is-in-its-eighth-covid-wave-20231030-p5eg5k.html">eighth COVID wave</a>. <h2>What antivirals are available?</h2> <a href="https://www.tga.gov.au/resources/artg/389801">Paxlovid</a> is a combination of two different drug molecules, nirmatrelvir and ritonavir. The nirmatrelvir works by blocking an enzyme called a protease that the virus needs to replicate. The ritonavir is included in the medicine to protect the nirmatrelvir, stopping the body from breaking it down. Molnupiravir, marketed as <a href="https://www.tga.gov.au/resources/artg/372650">Lagevrio</a>, works by forcing errors into the RNA of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID) as it replicates. As these errors build up, the virus becomes less effective. This year in Australia, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/were-in-a-new-covid-wave-what-can-we-expect-this-time-216820">XBB COVID strains</a> have dominated, and acquired a couple of key mutations. When COVID mutates into new variants, it doesn’t affect the ability of either Paxlovid or Lagevrio to work because the parts of the virus that change from the mutations aren’t those targeted by these two drugs. This is different to the <a href="https://app.magicapp.org/#/guideline/L4Q5An/section/E8kMVn">monoclonal antibody-based medicines</a> that were developed against specific strains of the virus. These drugs are not thought to be effective for any variant of the virus <a href="https://www.who.int/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants">from omicron XBB.1.5 onwards</a>, which includes the current wave. This is because these drugs recognise certain proteins expressed on the surface of SARS-CoV-2, which have changed over time. <h2>What does the evidence say?</h2> As Lagevrio and Paxlovid are relatively new medicines, we’re still learning how well they work and which patients should use them. The latest <a href="https://app.magicapp.org/#/guideline/L4Q5An/section/L0OPkj">evidence</a> suggests Paxlovid decreases the risk of hospitalisation if taken early by those at <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/testing-managing/antivirals">highest risk of severe disease</a>. Results from <a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2116044">a previous trial</a> suggested Lagevrio might reduce COVID deaths. But a more recent, <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4237902">larger trial</a> indicated Lagevrio doesn’t significantly reduce hospitalisations or deaths from the virus. However, few people at highest risk from COVID were included in this trial. So it could offer some benefit for patients in this group. In Australia, Lagevrio is not routinely <a href="https://app.magicapp.org/#/guideline/L4Q5An/section/L0OPkj">recommended</a> and Paxlovid is preferred. However, not all patients can take Paxlovid. For example, people with medical conditions such as <a href="https://www.paxlovidhcp.com/moderate-renal-impairment">severe kidney or liver impairment</a> shouldn’t take it because these issues can affect how well the body metabolises the medication, which increases the risk of side effects. Paxlovid also can’t be taken alongside some <a href="https://www.cec.health.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0020/702821/Information-for-patients-family-and-carers-nirmatrelvir-and-ritonavir.PDF">other medications</a> such as those for certain heart conditions, mental health conditions and cancers. For high-risk patients in these cases, Lagevrio can be considered. Some people who take COVID antivirals will experience side effects. Mostly these are not serious and will go away with time. Both <a href="https://www.cec.health.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0020/702821/Information-for-patients-family-and-carers-nirmatrelvir-and-ritonavir.PDF">Paxlovid</a> and <a href="https://www.cec.health.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/702818/Information-for-patients-family-and-carers-molnupiravir.PDF">Lagevrio</a> can cause diarrhoea, nausea and dizziness. Paxlovid can also cause side effects including muscle aches and weakness, changes in taste, loss of appetite and abdominal pain. If you experience any of these, you should contact your doctor. More serious side effects of both medicines are allergic reactions, such as shortness of breath, swelling of the face, lips or tongue and a severe rash, itching or hives. If you experience any of these, call 000 immediately or go straight to the nearest emergency department. <h2>Be prepared</h2> Most people will be able to manage COVID safely at home without needing antivirals. However, those at higher risk of severe COVID and therefore <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/testing-managing/antivirals#:%7E:text=Both%20are%20available%20in%20NSW,Lagevrio%C2%AE%20(molnupiravir)launch.">eligible for antivirals</a> should seek them. This includes people aged 70 or older, people aged 50 or older or Aboriginal people aged 30 or older with one additional risk factor for severe illness, and people 18 or older who are immunocompromised. If you are in any of these groups, it’s important you <a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Documents/translated/plan-ahead-covid-flu-english.pdf">plan ahead</a>. Speak to your health-care team now so you know what to do if you get COVID symptoms. If needed, this will ensure you can start treatment as soon as possible. It’s important antivirals are started within <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/testing-managing/antivirals#:%7E:text=Both%20are%20available%20in%20NSW,Lagevrio%C2%AE%20(molnupiravir)launch.">five days of symptom onset</a>. If you’re a high-risk patient and you test positive, contact your doctor straight away. If you are eligible for antivirals, your doctor will organise a prescription (either an electronic or paper script). These medicines are available under the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) and subsidised for people with a Medicare card. The cost for each course is the standard <a href="https://www.pbs.gov.au/info/about-the-pbs#:%7E:text=Patient%20co%2Dpayments,you%20have%20a%20concession%20card.">PBS co-payment</a> amount: A$30 for general patients and A$7.30 for people with a concession card. So you can rest and reduce the risk of spreading the virus to others, ask your pharmacy to deliver the medication to your home, or ask someone to collect it for you.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218423/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jessica-pace-1401278">Jessica Pace</a>, Associate Lecturer, Sydney Pharmacy School, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841">University of Sydney</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/nial-wheate-96839">Nial Wheate</a>, Associate Professor of the School of Pharmacy, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841">University of Sydney</a> Image credits: Getty Images This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-wave-whats-the-latest-on-antiviral-drugs-and-who-is-eligible-in-australia-218423">original article</a>.

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We’re in a new COVID wave. What can we expect this time?

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/james-wood-107417">James Wood</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-sydney-1414">UNSW Sydney</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bette-liu-1484488">Bette Liu</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-sydney-1414">UNSW Sydney</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/katie-louise-flanagan-1066858">Katie Louise Flanagan</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tasmania-888">University of Tasmania</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/stuart-turville-1273716">Stuart Turville</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-sydney-1414">UNSW Sydney</a> Australia is now into its <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-02/nsw-sydney-covid-christmas-fresh-wave/103051190">next COVID wave</a>. We’ve seen hints of this for a while. Case numbers and indicators of severe disease began rising in Victoria in August. But it has taken several months for a consistent pattern to emerge across Australia. Now we see evidence of this new wave via <a href="https://www.health.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-11/victorian-covid-19-surveillance-report-03-november-2023.pdf">wastewater surveillance</a> for traces of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID. We also see <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/topics/covid-19/weekly-reporting">rises</a> in COVID-related hospital admissions and antiviral prescriptions. Compared to past waves, this one has built up slowly and over a longer period. Here’s what we know about this new wave and what to expect over the coming weeks. <h2>How do we know we’re in a new COVID wave?</h2> In earlier waves, when more people were testing for COVID and reporting their results, we were more confident case numbers were a reasonable reflection of how COVID was tracking. However, now, a more useful indicator for COVID nationally is to look at trends in the number of prescriptions for the antiviral medications ritonavir (Paxlovid) and molnupiravir (Lagevrio) on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS). In the graph below, which is drawn from <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/topics/covid-19/weekly-reporting">national prescribing data</a>, you can clearly see script numbers rising. <iframe id="3d26e" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/3d26e/1/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe> <h2>When will we hit the peak?</h2> It has become more difficult to predict the size and timing of the peak. Reduced access to COVID testing and fewer requirements or opportunities to report test results, combined with the slow growth rate for this wave, give a wider range of possibilities. The wave is also likely to differ between states and territories, as some got off to a later start. However, given the wave’s slow growth rate and further increases in hybrid immunity (immunity from both vaccination and infection) over 2023, it’s reasonable to expect this to be the smallest Omicron wave so far. We also expect it will be over by early in the summer holiday period. That’s when rates of community contact decline significantly, as work and school contacts are much reduced. That means fewer opportunities for the virus to spread between networks of family and friends. <h2>Why now?</h2> It’s unlikely this latest COVID wave stems from changes in behaviour. People are generally out and about, fewer people are wearing masks in public. But we don’t see any dramatic shifts in this type of behaviour in 2023 compared with 2022. It’s not a seasonal cause, given respiratory viruses tend to spread better in winter, when we’re cooped up indoors with others. It’s unlikely it’s our <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.08.26.23294679v1">waning immunity</a> from infection or vaccination that’s prompting these successive waves. Instead, we’re seeing the result of a constantly mutating virus. Successful SARS-CoV-2 variants are gradually acquiring mutations. Some of these changes reduce the ability of existing antibodies to bind to and neutralise the virus. So it appears it’s still the “immune escape” variants that are behind these latest waves. <h2>Which variants are to blame?</h2> The primary viral lineage in Australia this year has been XBB. Over the past six months, its two most influential mutations have been: <ul> <li> the F456L mutation that led to the rise of EG.5.1, also known as Eris </li> <li> more recently, the paired “FLip” mutations F456L+L455F. We see these in offspring of Eris and in much-less closely related lineages. This is a clear sign these mutations help the virus spread better. </li> </ul> Both the single and paired mutations make existing antibodies less effective at blocking SARS-CoV-2 from binding to critical receptors on our cells. This increases our susceptibility to infection. The novel BA.2.86 lineage – colloquially known as Pirola – was first reported in Denmark in August and has many unique mutations. It has not been influential so far in this wave in Australia. But it has continued to evolve. And we may see it play a much bigger role in Australia in 2024. <h2>Who is most at risk during this COVID wave?</h2> Since the start of the pandemic, rates of COVID-related death and severe disease have greatly declined. That’s due to <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(22)00801-5/fulltext">widespread</a> vaccination and hybrid immunity, and a major change in the Omicron variant that’s made the virus less-likely to <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35104837/">infect the lung</a>. However, provisional statistics show there have been about <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/causes-death/provisional-mortality-statistics/latest-release">3,000</a> registered COVID deaths in Australia from January to July 2023. Older people and those with weaker immune systems are expected to remain at <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468266723000798">greatest risk</a> of developing severe COVID during this current wave. This is the rationale for the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation’s (ATAGI) September <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/news/atagi-update-on-the-covid-19-vaccination-program">recommendation</a> for people aged 75 or older to get boosted if more than six months had passed since their last vaccine dose. ATAGI also recommended people aged 65-74, and people 18 years and over with severe immunocompromising conditions, consider having another booster. But, by the end of October 2023, <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-10/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-update-27-october-2023.pdf">it was estimated</a> only one-quarter of Australians aged 65-74, one-third of people aged 75 or over and fewer than half (45%) of people in aged care had received a COVID vaccine in the past six months. <figure class="align-center "><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558309/original/file-20231108-19-5fu6vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558309/original/file-20231108-19-5fu6vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=249&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558309/original/file-20231108-19-5fu6vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=249&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558309/original/file-20231108-19-5fu6vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=249&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558309/original/file-20231108-19-5fu6vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558309/original/file-20231108-19-5fu6vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558309/original/file-20231108-19-5fu6vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Woman receives vaccination" /><figcaption>People with immunocompromising conditions should get boosted. <a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/woman-wearing-protective-face-mask-getting-1966499908">Shutterstock</a></figcaption></figure> <h2>Which vaccines are available?</h2> Currently available bivalent vaccines protect against the original ancestral strain of SARS-CoV-2 (now extinct) plus the newer BA.1 or BA.4/5 variants. These bivalent vaccines also protect us against <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6527f0bfaea2d0000d219c69/vaccine-surveillance-report-2023-week-41.pdf">severe disease</a> from the Omicron variants circulating now, such as XBB. But we can expect newer monovalent XBB.1.5 vaccines soon, now the Therapeutic Goods Administration has <a href="https://www.tga.gov.au/products/covid-19/covid-19-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-regulatory-status">approved them</a>. These are expected to provide <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.10.04.23296545v1.full.pdf">better protection</a> against newer Omicron variants than the currently available <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213260023003065">bivalent vaccines</a>. In the meantime, boosting with any available COVID vaccine will provide <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6527f0bfaea2d0000d219c69/vaccine-surveillance-report-2023-week-41.pdf">good protection</a> for vulnerable people. <h2>What might we expect from COVID in 2024?</h2> The Northern Hemisphere appears to have settled into an approximate seasonal pattern of COVID infections in 2023 and it’s plausible Australia will follow suit. If so, we should plan for overlapping seasonal epidemics of our three most important respiratory viruses: SARS-CoV-2, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). So hospitals may need to plan ahead for larger peaks in admissions. Hopefully, new <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/hcp/acip-recs/vacc-specific/rsv.html">vaccines for RSV</a>, and more broadly protective <a href="https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/research-context-progress-toward-universal-vaccines">flu and COVID vaccines</a> to be developed over the next decade, should help.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216820/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/james-wood-107417">James Wood</a>, Professor, epidemiological modelling of infectious diseases, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-sydney-1414">UNSW Sydney</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bette-liu-1484488">Bette Liu</a>, Associate Professor and NHMRC Career Development Fellow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-sydney-1414">UNSW Sydney</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/katie-louise-flanagan-1066858">Katie Louise Flanagan</a>, Infectious Diseases Specialist and Clinical Professor, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tasmania-888">University of Tasmania</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/stuart-turville-1273716">Stuart Turville</a>, Associate Professor, Immunovirology and Pathogenesis Program, Kirby Institute, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-sydney-1414">UNSW Sydney</a> This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/were-in-a-new-covid-wave-what-can-we-expect-this-time-216820">original article</a>.

Caring

Lisa Curry's emotional post sparks a wave of support and love

Lisa Curry has shared a heartfelt tribute on the third anniversary of her daughter Jaimi's death. Jaimi passed away in 2020 after a long health battle, at just 33 years old, and is the daughter of Lisa and former Ironman Grant Kenny. Lisa took to Instagram to commemorate her daughter with a painting of Jaimi that she commissioned to a local artist, and share her grief journey. "3 years ago, our beautiful daughter Jaimi took her last breath. We all love you and miss you everyday Jaimi and hope you’re at peace. It still feels like yesterday," she began the long and emotional post. “We all love you and miss you every day Jaimi and hope you’re at peace. “It’s been a s*** and sad week, where I’ve needed lots of hugs and am constantly wiping my tears away. I tell myself to breathe because I know it’s a bad day, not a bad life. “I’m doing ok ... but feeling sad on the inside while trying to be happy on the outside is overwhelming and feels exhausting," she added. Lisa also said that sometimes she can barely recognise herself in the mirror because she looks like "a mess" and other times she sees "the old Lisa." "The path to recovery is long and can only be done in my own time. "The last 3 years has been a long, slow, painful, uneventful decline in my health and my soul. I talk out loud, frustratingly scolding myself to get my s*** together. There are days when I don’t care about anything. "I need to change that talk to be more positive and give myself permission that it’s ok to move forward. "Moving on doesn’t mean letting go. I will never let her go," she added. <blockquote class="instagram-media" style="background: #FFF; border: 0; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: 0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width: 540px; min-width: 326px; padding: 0; width: calc(100% - 2px);" data-instgrm-captioned="" data-instgrm-permalink="https://www.instagram.com/p/CxJb9jkhg5C/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" data-instgrm-version="14"> <div style="padding: 16px;"> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; align-items: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 40px; margin-right: 14px; width: 40px;"> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 100px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 60px;"> </div> </div> </div> <div style="padding: 19% 0;"> </div> <div style="display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0 auto 12px; width: 50px;"> </div> <div style="padding-top: 8px;"> <div style="color: #3897f0; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 550; line-height: 18px;">View this post on Instagram</div> </div> <div style="padding: 12.5% 0;"> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; margin-bottom: 14px; align-items: center;"> <div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(0px) translateY(7px);"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; height: 12.5px; transform: rotate(-45deg) translateX(3px) translateY(1px); width: 12.5px; flex-grow: 0; margin-right: 14px; margin-left: 2px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(9px) translateY(-18px);"> </div> </div> <div style="margin-left: 8px;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 20px; width: 20px;"> </div> <div style="width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 2px solid transparent; border-left: 6px solid #f4f4f4; border-bottom: 2px solid transparent; transform: translateX(16px) translateY(-4px) rotate(30deg);"> </div> </div> <div style="margin-left: auto;"> <div style="width: 0px; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-right: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(16px);"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; flex-grow: 0; height: 12px; width: 16px; transform: translateY(-4px);"> </div> <div style="width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-left: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(-4px) translateX(8px);"> </div> </div> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 24px;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 224px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 144px;"> </div> </div> <p style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 8px; overflow: hidden; padding: 8px 0 7px; text-align: center; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;"><a style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.instagram.com/p/CxJb9jkhg5C/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A post shared by Lisa Curry AO (@lisacurry)</a> </div> </blockquote> Lisa then said that she needed to start looking after herself so she can be "the mother, grannie, wife and friend that I should be." She then thanked local artist Donna Munro for the beautiful painting of her daughter, before asking her fans if they were okay, after noting that it was R U OK Day. She reminded fans to talk to someone and sent “Love and strength to everyone who’s struggling for whatever reason.” Her followers flocked to the comments to offer their love and support, and thanked her for being open and vulnerable. “Do what you can today Lisa and let tomorrow take care of the rest. Your baby mattered, your grief at her loss is justifiable. Don’t punish yourself for not having a heart of stone. One step after another, no time limit. ❤️🙏🌸” wrote one fan. “Sending love, Lisa. Can’t imagine your pain," commented another. “You’re very brave Lisa, sending strength and a big hug, we who have lost a piece of our heart knows how hard it is," wrote a third. "The words I say will never ease the pain but know you are a beautiful strong woman who inspires more people than you would ever know with your honest and raw feelings on grief. Hugs to you," commented a fourth. "I hope that you find a little comfort in the fact that you would have helped so many other people going through similar grief. Sending much needed hugs and sunshine," added another. Images: Instagram

Caring

“Enough is enough”: Karl's crime wave plea after family targeted

A number of Aussies are resorting to hiring their own private security to watch over their properties while they sleep as the country faces a major crime wave. Within 24 hours, a teenager was stabbed to death in Melbourne’s northwest and three young offenders have been charged over Facebook Marketplace robberies in Queensland. As the crime problem continues to worsen, Today co-host Karl Stefanovic revealed his own family have been targeted. “Enough is enough,” he demanded. "This has happened to me, it's happened to my family, I've had kids come to my house, doing things and I've got them on tape," a disgruntled Stefanovic continued. "It is only relatively minor offences, but if it is getting to that level for me, it is getting to that level across the country - we keep having to talk about it, keeping saying we've got to do something about it and nothing happens.” Stefanovic also emphasised the colossal impact these targeted attacks have on families, regardless of whether it’s a home invasion, car theft or robbery on the street. “Whenever the crime comes to their doorstep, whenever someone breaks into their car, whenever something happens that's close to home, it has a tremendous psychological impact,” he said. He agreed with authorities discouraging vigilante activities as a solution, however, noted that the problem is only getting worse. "That's my big concern, that's the big concern for a lot of authorities in various states," he said. "I don't understand how authorities can't see how significant an impact this is having on the day-to-day life of people, law-abiding citizens at home. "It's not stopping and that's the problem." Image credit: 9News / Today

Legal

Australia’s “most boring state” is making waves

The South Australian Tourism Commission is in hot water with its own shadow minister after forking out the funds for influencers to come visit the state, only to have them dub it Australia’s “most boring state”. It was an interesting take, but not necessarily one that was all too surprising - it’s a long-running joke plaguing the state, and the content produced by the Tiktokers has been defended as both intentional and ironic. However, Shadow tourism minister Jing Lee does not share that opinion, demanding to know “who has chosen them, why they are here, [and] how they have been selected.” 7News have also reported that the opposition are calling for the campaign’s cost to be made public. South Australia’s tourism organisation put their plan into motion in 2022 when they invited 12 social media influencers with millions of followers between them on a fully funded trip to the state. Their itinerary was reportedly designed to highlight “the very best that SA has to offer”, from its “raw beauty” to its “culinary delights”. “What we’re trying to do is demonstrate that people’s perception of Adelaide is patently wrong,” South Australia’s treasurer Stephen Mullighan explained. “That was the whole idea behind it.” Many of the videos that came from the campaign run with captions declaring it to be “the most boring state ever”, or with the influencers asking their followers if they were ready to run amok with them. No matter which tagline the Tiktokers ran with, the content they produced all contained the same hidden message: South Australia was not such a ‘boring’ getaway after all. The clips they featured painted a positive picture of the state, showcasing everything from dolphin cruises to wineries, spectacular dining experiences, and an oyster farm. And as SATC have been happy to report, the campaign has been viewed over 5 million times across TikTok. It still wasn’t enough for Jing Lee, who shared her belief that “the Labor government has an obsession with influencers.” But Stephen Mullighan had his own thoughts on the matter - and more specifically, one of the opposition’s previous attempts at a tourism campaign. “We’re certainly not going to get lectured to by Jing Lee, John Gardner, and the Liberals,” he said, “who were of course responsible for the most humiliating tourism campaign [the 2019 ‘Old Mate’ campaign] that’s been rolled out in our nation’s history in recent times.” Images: TikTok

Domestic Travel

Tech millionaire’s “creepy” $100k offer sparks wave of backlash

US tech millionaire and Silicon Valley entrepreneur Steve Kirsch has been slammed for making a “creepy” offer towards a female passenger who was travelling on the same plane. In a tweet, Kirsch claimed that he offered the stranger $US100,000 to remove her face mask for the flight. "I am on board a Delta flight right now. The person sitting next to me in first-class refused $100,000 to remove her mask for the entire flight. No joke," he tweeted. Kirsch, who became infamous for spreading misinformation about the COVID-19 vaccines throughout the pandemic, said that he "explained" to his seatmate that masks "don’t work". He also claims that the woman worked for a pharmaceutical company, and he started by offering her $US100 but worked his way up. She rejected his offer, but Kirsch persisted and said that if she removed the mask to eat and drink she "she could be infected with one breath". Many have slammed the entrepreneur for his actions. “Ew. Do you make a habit of offering money to random women to remove coverings from their bodies mid-air?" posted Jess Piper, a former Democrat state representative nominee, in her response to Kirsch's post. “Stop bugging people who are minding their own business with your creepy nonsense,” commented Alastair McAlpine, an infectious disease expert. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> I am on board a Delta flight right now. The person sitting next to me in first class refused $100,000 to remove her mask for the entire flight. No joke. This was after I explained they don’t work. She works for a pharma company. <a href="https://t.co/Q8Hwzhkmxf">pic.twitter.com/Q8Hwzhkmxf</a> — Steve Kirsch (@stkirsch) <a href="https://twitter.com/stkirsch/status/1634189428150390785?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 10, 2023</a></blockquote> "This is wildly creepy, you get that, right? Every part of this. From the request, to the expression, to the fact you decided to tweet this!" commented one user. “All you’re doing here is admitting you patronised and harassed a woman who made a decision she thought was best for her,” wrote another. Last week, Kirsch tried to pull the same stunt on a different flight. He tweeted that he offered his seatmates $US10,000 to remove their masks for the flight, but they also declined his offer. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> I asked the people sitting next to me on the plane if I paid them $10,000 would they remove their mask for the duration of the flight? Both declined the offer. Maybe I should offer $100,000 next time? This can quantify the amount of brainwashing. <a href="https://t.co/VLlymusmcq">pic.twitter.com/VLlymusmcq</a> — Steve Kirsch (@stkirsch) <a href="https://twitter.com/stkirsch/status/1633166204054675456?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 7, 2023</a></blockquote> "Maybe I should offer $100,000 next time? This can quantify the amount of brainwashing," he added. Delta airlines have said that masks are optional for both domestic and international travel unless required by “applicable governments”. American federal law no longer requires masks be worn in airports or on planes, but certain cities and states may still make it a requirement at their airports. Image: Twitter

Travel Trouble

Crude religious joke on The Project sparks wave of backlash

A crude religious joke on The Project has prompted a wave of backlash, with many calling for a formal apology from the panel show. On Tuesday night's episode, the panel were joined by special guest Reuben Kaye: a queer comedian known for pushing social boundaries in his comedy. Reuben, who dresses in drag for his performances, was relaying details of the online hate he receives, particularly from the Christian community, when he made the X-rated remark. "I think it's hilarious when someone messages me and says 'You have to accept Jesus' love or you will burn in hell', because I love Jesus." "I love any man who can get nailed for three days straight and come back for more,” Kaye quipped. Waleed Aly looked stunned by the joke, while co-host Sarah Harris burst into laughter. Some viewers, however, were not amused by the joke, with outraged religious believers taking their criticism online. “Absolutely disgusting comment about Jesus. He just insulted millions of people of faith,” one wrote on Twitter. An upset parent wrote, “Having to explain the offensive joke to my eight-year-old before Survivor kicked in, thanks legends. Shame on you guys. Have some respect and offer a public apology.” Another said, “Having to watch this FILTH during dinner time with a young family. You owe the public an apology & furthermore, this horrible program cancelled.” One outraged viewer wrote, “The three nails sick derogatory joke allowed to air on tour show tonight is you giving permission to mock and ridicule Christianity and my Lord and saviour Jesus.” Despite the backlash from the Christian community, others thought Kaye's joke was "hilarious", and praised the comedian for his blunt delivery. “More of this on The Project please. I p***ed myself,” said one. Another wrote, “I can’t believe Reuben Kaye just said that on national, prime-time television. What an icon!” Kaye is known for his edgy jokes, saying elsewhere during his interview on The Project, when asked about his busy tour schedule, “I’m so thickly spread around this country that I might as well be systemic racism.” Image credits: The Project

Australia's life expectancy altered by Covid wave

Australia’s life expectancy took a plunge during the Omicron wave in 2022. According to new data, it has been revealed that Omicron was the cause for a 17% spike in deaths. Nearly 130,000 people died during the first eight months of 2022 - 13.2% higher than the same period in 2021, and 17% above the historical average. At least 7700 of those deaths were doctor-certified as being caused by Covid19, six times higher than during the entirety of 2021. The majority of the spike in deaths in 2022 are attributable to the “challenge” of an ageing population. This includes dementia and heart conditions, as the proportion of people aged over 65 continues to grow. The increase in deaths between 2021 to 2023 has resulted in a temporary drop in life expectancies, however that’s expected to gradually increase over coming years. It will reach 87 for women and 83.5 for men by 2033. Treasury’s latest Annual Population Statement reveals as the proportion of Australians over the age of 65 grows, so does the burden on younger workers. The report found that the share of those over the retirement age will grow from 16.8% in 2020-21 to 19.9% in 2032-33 before reaching 23.1% in 2060-61. That’s set to be combined with a declining fertility rate, projected to decline from 1.66 babies per woman in 2021–22 to 1.62 babies by 2030–31. As a result, the median age will balloon from 38.4 years old in 2020-21 to 40.1 in 2032-33. It was 36.9 in 2008-09. The ageing population is driven by increasing life expectancies and falling fertility rates, with the wave of older Australians created by a large baby boomer generation. Image: Getty

Body

"Thermonuclear bad": Millions of deaths expected in China's Covid wave

Experts have warned deaths will be "in the millions" as China faces an unprecedented Covid wave, which is set to become "thermonuclear bad". The most recent wave of the infections began after Chinese President Xi Jinping finally began to relax his "zero-Covid" policy, which has seen the country under heavy lockdowns for months at a time. Within days of the restrictions easing, Covid cases began to explode, with hospitals already “completely overwhelmed” and bodies reportedly piling up at morgues. Public health officials in China have admitted it is possible that 800 million people could be struck down by Covid in the coming months. However, the nation has officially recorded just two deaths since reopening, although there are now widespread reports that the true figure is far higher, with workers at the Beijing Dongjiao Funeral Parlour – the venue tasked with handling Covid deaths – claiming they were overwhelmed with bodies in recent days. The claims have sparked rumours of a government cover up, with international experts sounding the alarm over a tragedy in the making. Harvard-trained US epidemiologist Eric Feigl-Ding recently shared a video on Twitter purportedly showing rows of seriously ill Covid patients crammed into a clearly stretched hospital, with some seen lying on the floor or slumped in chairs, warning that things were getting “thermonuclear bad”. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> ⚠️THERMONUCLEAR BAD—Hospitals completely overwhelmed in China ever since restrictions dropped. Epidemiologist estimate >60% of 🇨🇳 & 10% of Earth’s population likely infected over next 90 days. Deaths likely in the millions—plural. This is just the start—🧵<a href="https://t.co/VAEvF0ALg9">pic.twitter.com/VAEvF0ALg9</a> — Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) <a href="https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1604748747640119296?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 19, 2022</a></blockquote> “Hospitals completely overwhelmed in China ever since restrictions dropped,” he posted, adding that epidemiologists estimate more than 60 per cent of China and 10 per cent of the Earth’s population is likely to be infected with the virus over the next 90 days. “Deaths likely in the millions – plural. This is just the start,” he posted. His claims were backed up by a recent forecast by health data analysts Airfinity, which predicted China faces between 1.3 and 2.1 million deaths between now and the end of March. Fellow epidemiologist Ben Cowling agreed with the terrifying figures, telling <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/12/15/1143002538/china-appears-to-be-facing-what-could-be-the-world-s-largest-coronavirus-outbrea" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NPR</a> the surge is “going to come very fast, unfortunately”, and predicting that “hospitals are going to come under pressure possibly by the end of this month”. Dr Eric Feigl-Ding went on to explain that nobody would be immune to the fallout from China’s latest crisis, predicting that the world would soon be hit by severe shortages of crucial medical supplies including antibiotics and fever medications. “What happens in China doesn’t stay in China — Wuhan was our lesson three years ago. The global fallout of this 2022-2023 wave will not be small,” he warned, adding that he believed the “global economic fallout from China’s new mega tsunami wave will be ugly”. Image credits: Twitter

Caring

Passenger killed after “rogue wave” strikes cruise ship

An elderly woman has died and four others have been injured after a massive wave struck a cruise ship sailing towards southern Argentina at the end of its Antarctic cruise. The Viking Polaris was struck by a wave that broke cabin windows during a storm on its return to the port of Ushuaia last week, according to Argentinian authorities. While the ship suffered minimal damage, the 62-year-old US woman who was hit by broken glass died. “It is with great sadness that we confirm a guest passed away following the incident,” Viking said in a statement. “We have notified the guest’s family and shared our deepest sympathies.” The cruise operator described it as a “rogue wave incident” and confirmed that four other cruise goers suffered non-life threatening injuries and received treatment from the doctor and medical staff on board the ship. With a federal court opening a case into the incident, the cruise ship has been anchored at Ushuaia. Viking has also said it would investigate the incident and “offer our support to the relevant authorities”. “Our focus remains on the safety and wellbeing of our guests and crew, and we are working directly with them to arrange return travel,” the <a href="https://www.vikingcruises.co.uk/expeditions/my-trip/current-sailings/index.html">statement</a> from Thursday, December 1, read. The company has also cancelled its scheduled voyage to Antarctica, which was due to depart from December 5-17. The Polaris, built this year, features luxury facilities and has capacity for 378 passengers and 256 crew members. It is one of two ships Viking has for its cruises, which explore remote regions of the world. Image: Getty Images

Cruising

Health experts warn workers to stay home amid Covid “variant soup” wave

Health experts are warning people to work from home when they can, as the latest Covid wave is expected to peak before Christmas. Since October, cases have steadily been on the rise in Victoria and New South Wales, following a new “variant soup”. Last week, NSW Health changed its Covid-19 risk rating from green to amber, as cases in NSW and Victoria have doubled in just a fortnight. Hassan Vally, an Associate Professor in Epidemiology at Deakin University, said on Monday that new variants XBB and BQ.1 were driving case numbers as they became more dominant. He also said that the new variants were less severe, but more infectious. “We also know these variants don’t seem to be increasing in virulence … The evidence seems to point to they’re inherently less virulent,” he said during an Australian Science Media Centre briefing. Dr Vally said the current wave was expected to make a sharp increase before a sharp decrease by the end of the year, as he urged people to take “preventative measures” to avoid getting sick. “Each wave seems to be having less impact,” Dr Vally said. He said the threat posed by Covid wasn’t over, but emphasised we had entered a stage of living alongside the virus. Last week, health authorities recommended that residents of NSW wear masks indoors and on public transport if social distancing wasn’t available. NSW residents will also now have to wear masks in all areas of hospitals. In the week ending November 17, there were 27,869 people across NSW infected with Covid-19. Health authorities in NSW, Queensland, Western Australia and the ACT have issued similar warnings, strongly recommending a return to wearing masks in public indoor areas and on public transport, but have shied away from reintroducing mandates. Dr Vally said people who were in a position to work from home should do so when they can. “Maybe this is a point also where people, where they have the flexibility, should work from home a little bit more than what may become normal,” he said. Image credits: Getty Images

News

Democracy spreads in waves – but shared cultural history might matter more than geography

Recent events like the war in Ukraine, conflicts over Taiwan and the rise of authoritarian ideology have renewed interest in the foundations of modern democracy. They have raised questions about why some nations are more democratic than others, and how democratic institutions, freedoms and values are spread or lost. We tend to think of this variation in terms of geography – democratic Western Europe or autocratic Middle East. But in a <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/evolutionary-human-sciences/article/shared-cultural-ancestry-predicts-the-global-diffusion-of-democracy/90C7A170B924FC305DD66FF8853799FC" target="_blank" rel="noopener">new analysis of 220 years of political data</a>, we show that deep cultural connections between countries such as shared linguistic or religious ancestry matter more than geography. <h2>Waves of democratisation</h2> The emergence of modern democracy coincides with the rise of nation states in Europe at the beginning of the 19th century. Democracy spread across European nations and their colonies, over <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Third_Wave:_Democratization_in_the_Late_Twentieth_Century" target="_blank" rel="noopener">three waves</a>. The first wave lasted about a century, from 1828 to 1926, halting after the first world war. A second, rapid wave (1945-1962) followed the second world war and decolonisation. The third wave began in 1974 and continues today. It encompassed political transitions and new countries in Europe, Latin America and the Pacific. Each wave was followed by a period of reversals when nations turned to autocratic regimes, junta or fascism. Indeed, some researchers speculate we are heading into <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13510347.2019.1582029" target="_blank" rel="noopener">another period of reversal</a>. <h2>What drives modern democracy?</h2> Scholars traditionally considered factors internal to a country – economic growth, rates of education or the natural environment – as the drivers of these waves. However, the geographic clustering of democracy and the wave-like pattern of expansion suggest the process may also involve a kind of contagion where democracy passes from one nation to another. One explanation for this is that democratic change spreads across borders, so that neighbouring countries end up with similar levels of democracy. Culture provides another explanation. Neighbouring countries tend to share a common cultural heritage, such as related languages or religions. This shapes national institutions, norms and values. In our research, we tested the idea that common cultural ancestry explains variation and change in democracy around the globe. We brought together 220 years of democracy data with information on the cultural relationships between nations. The cultural relationships we examined were based on languages and religious beliefs. For example, Portugal is linguistically closer to Spanish-speaking Argentina and Spain than to England and Germany (which speak Germanic languages). Likewise, Myanmar, a Theravada Buddhist country, is religiously closer to Mongolia (where Vajrayana Buddhism is predominant) than to Muslim Malaysia. <h2>Culture is more important than geography</h2> The democracy data we studied cover 269 modern and historical nations and three widely-used democracy indicators, measuring democratic and autocratic authority in governing institutions (<a href="https://www.systemicpeace.org/polityproject.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Polity 5</a>), electoral participation and competition (<a href="https://www.prio.org/data/20" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Vanhanen Index</a>) and individual rights and freedoms (<a href="https://freedomhouse.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Freedom House</a>). Across all three indicators of democracy, we found countries that share linguistic or religious ancestry tend to have more similar democracy scores. These shared cultural ties were better predictors of democracy than geography, especially during the third wave of democratisation. Knowing the democratic status of a country’s linguistic or religious relatives helps predict that country’s future level of democracy five, ten or even 20 years later. These effects were not just due to countries sharing a language (for example, the English-speaking world) or religion (such as the Sunni Islam majority countries). This suggests deeper cultural connections between countries are important. <h2>What this means for the spread of democracy</h2> These effects could be the result of a number of processes. One possibility is that countries directly inherited institutions along the same pathways they inherited cultural features like language. For instance, Aotearoa New Zealand and other Commonwealth countries inherited the British legal system along with the English language. Another possibility is that cultural similarities might make countries more likely to maintain ongoing social connections, including foreign relations, which then aid the spread of institutions. For example, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-arab-spring-changed-the-middle-east-and-north-africa-forever-161394" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Arab Spring</a> spread among a set of countries with common linguistic and religious heritage. A third possibility is that inherited cultural values could steer countries towards similar institutions. For example, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-019-0769-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">in previous research</a> we found that tolerance of diversity (cosmopolitan values) promotes a shift to more democratic institutions, but the reverse is not true. Democratic institutions do not shift tolerance. Countries that have inherited cosmopolitan values as part of their shared cultural ancestry may be more likely to shift towards democracy. If this theory is correct, it calls into question the assumption that democratic institutions can endure without sustained efforts to promote the cultural values that support them. The US interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq may be tragic examples of this. Our findings indicate cultural history matters for understanding the spread of democracy around the globe. This does not mean culture is the only factor at play (our analyses still leave a lot of variation unexplained). Neither do our findings speak to a population’s ultimate potential to achieve democratic outcomes, but we see this as within the reach of all populations. This means those wishing to support democracy at home or abroad should take cultural barriers seriously. We cannot assume that institutions that work well in one cultural setting can be easily transplanted to another, very different setting, with different values, norms and traditions. We should pay more attention to culturally closely related countries that have succeeded at merging local norms and values with democratic institutions. This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/democracy-spreads-in-waves-but-shared-cultural-history-might-matter-more-than-geography-189959" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>. Image: Shutterstock

Legal

Wave of support for Dr Charlie Teo

Renowned brain surgeon Dr Charlie Teo has received an outpouring of support from doctors overseas calling for his current restrictions on surgeries to be overturned. Dr Charlie Teo is not allowed to conduct any surgeries in Australia without written approval from a fellow surgeon after the Medical Council of NSW received three complaints about him. This has led to the 64-year-old coming out and saying to 2GB radio host Chris Smith that he would even perform surgeries for free in public hospitals, because he has “had enough” of the ban from “jealous colleagues”. “It's gang warfare. It's purely based on professional jealousy. Even a governing body has said that I'm a competent surgeon,” he said to Smith on air. He said that there have been multiple instances in which his receptionist would break down crying when people would beg for him to perform their surgery. “The bottom line is, it's a pretty desperate situation, it's sad, it's wrong,” Dr Teo continued. “It all started from nameless, faceless, cowardly people who went to the media, made allegations and made up stories about me to try and destroy my reputation. “If I'm as bad as surgeons say I am, if I'm offering people false hope and false promises, come out and say it... and put a face to the allegations.” His comments come as six top-performing doctors across the world wrote to the Medical Council of NSW calling for the ban to be overturned. Professor Giovanni Broggi, who worked for more than 40 years at the Neurological Institute Carlo Besta in Milan, said that Dr Teo’s willingness to perform risky operations and successfully is important to people and their families. “Given his excellent clinical results and great surgical skills in treating brain tumours, Professor Teo often accepts to operate on very complex cases,” Professor Broggi wrote. “This attitude, coupled with his ability to truly share the patient’s point of view, is what allowed him to save many patients. “Although he could not save the life of patients affected by malignant brain tumours, such as Glioblastomas, the truth is that in most of the cases he was able to significantly prolong patients’ survival and to provide a good post-operative quality of life.” Professor Paul Gardner from the Department of Neurological Surgery at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Centre said that Dr Teo’s emotional investment in each patient is what drives him to ensure he’s doing the best he can. “All of us who manage the most complex and dangerous cranial tumours face the constant risk and fear of devastating complications,” Professor Gardner wrote. “Indeed, the only way to avoid these in such cases is to never operate. “It is clear, however, based on the medical literature, that many of these disease have significantly better prognosis and outcome if a more radical removal can be performed. “It is exactly this tightrope that Prof Teo is willing and able to walk every day. “Any of us who attempt to do so will occasionally have devastating complications. This is the nature of our business.” “The emotional investment this requires cannot be overstated. I have seen Prof Teo invest this in every one of his patients I have seen treated and I have seen the impact on him when there is even a minor complication. “There is no question in my mind that he is offering every patient the highest level of care available in the world.” Stanford Medicines Associate Professor of Neurosurgery Robert Dodd also addressed the NSW Medical Council, calling for his colleague to be given permission to perform surgeries again. “I hope you are able to navigate through this investigation and find direction to see that Professor Teo is indeed a good and passionate physician, a master surgeon, and an Australian treasure,” he wrote. Dr Teo already had a name for himself in Australia, but it was when Amelia "Milli" Lucas, a 14-year-old from Perth who crowdfunded $170,000 to afford Dr Teo's services that he gained worldwide attention. He flew across the country to Sydney to perform Milli’s operation and successfully removed 98 percent of her life-threatening brain tumour with the experimental surgery. She was hailed Dr Teo's "miracle girl". Images: Facebook

Caring

Wedding swamped by massive waves

A wedding in Hawaii has been derailed after massive waves sent tables and chairs crashing towards guests. Wild weather that included waves over six-metres tall - attributed to high tides and rising sea levels associated with climate change - ravaged the island’s south shores over the weekend, according to the National Weather Service. Sara Ackerman, one of the attendees at the wedding in Kailua-Kona, filmed the terrifying scene that happened about five minutes before the ceremony was due to start. “I was filming it and then it just came over the wall and just completely annihilated all the tables and chairs,” she said. “It wasn’t like a life-threatening situation by any means whatsoever. It was just like, ‘Oh my gosh … What are we going to do? Where are we going to put the tables?’” <blockquote class="instagram-media" style="background: #FFF; border: 0; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: 0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width: 540px; min-width: 326px; padding: 0; width: calc(100% - 2px);" data-instgrm-captioned="" data-instgrm-permalink="https://www.instagram.com/reel/CgHykPTpmSP/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" data-instgrm-version="14"> <div style="padding: 16px;"> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; align-items: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 40px; margin-right: 14px; width: 40px;"> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 100px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 60px;"> </div> </div> </div> <div style="padding: 19% 0;"> </div> <div style="display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0 auto 12px; width: 50px;"> </div> <div style="padding-top: 8px;"> <div style="color: #3897f0; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 550; line-height: 18px;">View this post on Instagram</div> </div> <div style="padding: 12.5% 0;"> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; margin-bottom: 14px; align-items: center;"> <div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(0px) translateY(7px);"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; height: 12.5px; transform: rotate(-45deg) translateX(3px) translateY(1px); width: 12.5px; flex-grow: 0; margin-right: 14px; margin-left: 2px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(9px) translateY(-18px);"> </div> </div> <div style="margin-left: 8px;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 20px; width: 20px;"> </div> <div style="width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 2px solid transparent; border-left: 6px solid #f4f4f4; border-bottom: 2px solid transparent; transform: translateX(16px) translateY(-4px) rotate(30deg);"> </div> </div> <div style="margin-left: auto;"> <div style="width: 0px; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-right: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(16px);"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; flex-grow: 0; height: 12px; width: 16px; transform: translateY(-4px);"> </div> <div style="width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-left: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(-4px) translateX(8px);"> </div> </div> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 24px;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 224px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 144px;"> </div> </div> <p style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 8px; overflow: hidden; padding: 8px 0 7px; text-align: center; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;"><a style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.instagram.com/reel/CgHykPTpmSP/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A post shared by SARA ACKERMAN (@saraackermanbooks)</a> </div> </blockquote> Despite the chaos, Ackerman said the ceremony went ahead and that they cleaned up the mess after the newlyweds exchanged vows. “We had the ceremony and it was beautiful, having all the (sea) spray,” she said. “The ocean was really wild. So it was great for the photos.” The weather wasn’t just ruining weddings, with waves crashing into homes and businesses, and spilling across highways, as reported by <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/world/hawaii-waves-swamp-homes-weddings-during-historic-swell/24f3ac40-49a2-4fc4-9c0a-81257e7ea7d6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">9News</a>. Lifeguards and rescue crews across the state were occupied by the weather, conducting at least 1,960 rescues on the island of Oahu alone over two days. One serious injury was reported by Honolulu officials, where a surfer suffered a laceration to the back of his head. Chris Benchley, the meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service’s office in Honolulu, said waves of this size were incredibly rare. “Waves over 12 or 15 feet (3.66 or 4.57 metres), those become extremely big and really rare to have," he said. “It’s the largest it’s been in several decades.” He explained that the swell was produced in the South Pacific, which recently experienced a “particularly strong winter storm” with winds focused directly at Samoa and Hawaii. Though it’s hard to pin the blame for this single weather event directly on climate change, Brenchley said it does play a role. “The most direct type of impact that we can use with climate change is the sea level rise,” he said. “Any time you add just even small amounts of water, you raise that sea level just a little bit. And now those impacts will be exacerbated whenever we have a large storm event or a ... high, high tide.” “We had some waves that were reaching 20 feet (6 metres), 20 feet-plus even,” Brenchley added. “That’s getting on the level of historic.” Image: 9News

Travel Trouble

Pay ‘with a smile or a wave’: Why Mastercard’s new face recognition payment system raises concerns

Mastercard’s <a href="https://www.mastercard.com/news/press/2022/may/with-a-smile-or-a-wave-paying-in-store-just-got-personal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">“smile to pay”</a> system, announced last week, is supposed to save time for customers at checkouts. It is being trialled in Brazil, with future pilots planned for the Middle East and Asia. The company argues touch-less technology will help speed up transaction times, shorten lines in shops, heighten security and improve hygiene in businesses. But it raises concerns relating to customer privacy, data storage, crime risk and bias. How will it work? Mastercard’s biometric checkout system will provide customers facial recognition-based payments, by linking the biometric authentication systems of a number of third-party companies with Mastercard’s own payment systems. A Mastercard spokesperson told The Conversation it had already partnered with NEC, Payface, Aurus, Fujitsu Limited, PopID and PayByFace, with more providers to be named. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464953/original/file-20220524-22-ga0v7l.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464953/original/file-20220524-22-ga0v7l.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464953/original/file-20220524-22-ga0v7l.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464953/original/file-20220524-22-ga0v7l.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464953/original/file-20220524-22-ga0v7l.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464953/original/file-20220524-22-ga0v7l.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464953/original/file-20220524-22-ga0v7l.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464953/original/file-20220524-22-ga0v7l.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="The 'Fujitsu' logo in red is displayed on a building's side" /></a><figcaption>Mastercard has partnered with Fujitsu, a massive information and communications technology firm offering many different products and services. Shutterstock</figcaption></figure> They said “providers need to go through independent laboratory certification against the program criteria to be considered” – but details of these criteria aren’t yet publicly available. According to <a href="https://www.siliconrepublic.com/business/mastercard-facial-recognition-biometric-payments" target="_blank" rel="noopener">media</a> reports, customers will have to install an app which will take their picture and payment information. This information will be saved and stored on the third-party provider’s servers. At the checkout, the customer’s face will be matched with the stored data. And once their identity is verified, funds will be deducted automatically. The “wave” option is a bit of a trick: as the customer watches the camera while waving, the camera still scans their face – not their hand. Similar authentication technologies are used on smartphones (face ID) and in many airports around the world, including “<a href="https://www.abf.gov.au/entering-and-leaving-australia/smartgates/arrivals" target="_blank" rel="noopener">smartgates</a>” in Australia. <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2017/9/4/16251304/kfc-china-alipay-ant-financial-smile-to-pay" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China</a> started using biometrics-based checkout technology back in 2017. But Mastercard is among the first to launch such a system in Western markets – competing with the “pay with your palm” <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2020/09/29/amazon-introduces-the-amazon-one-a-way-to-pay-with-your-palm-when-entering-stores/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">system</a> used at cashier-less Amazon Go and Whole Foods brick and mortars in the United States. What we don’t know Much about the precise functioning of Mastercard’s system isn’t clear. How accurate will the facial recognition be? Who will have access to the databases of biometric data? A Mastercard spokesperson told The Conversation customers’ data would be stored with the relevant biometric service provider in encrypted form, and removed when the customer “indicates they want to end their enrolment”. But how will the removal of data be enforced if Mastercard itself can’t access it? Obviously, privacy protection is a major concern, especially when there are many potential third-party providers involved. On the bright side, Mastercard’s <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/032615/how-mastercard-makes-its-money-ma.asp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">customers</a> will have a choice as to whether or not they use the biometrics checkout system. However, it will be at retailers’ discretion whether they offer it, or whether they offer it exclusively as the only payment option. Similar face-recognition technologies used in airports, and <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/police-surveillance-and-facial-recognition-why-data-privacy-is-an-imperative-for-communities-of-color/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">by police</a>, often offer no choice. We can assume Mastercard and the biometrics provider with whom they partner will require customer consent, as per most privacy laws. But will customers know what they are consenting to? Ultimately, the biometric service providers Mastercard teams up with will decide how they use the data, for how long, where they store it, and who can access it. Mastercard will merely decide what providers are “good enough” to be accepted as partners, and the minimum standards they must adhere to. Customers who want the convenience of this checkout service will have to consent to all the related data and privacy terms. And as reports have noted, there is potential for Mastercard to integrate the feature with loyalty schemes and make personalised recommendations <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/17/mastercard-launches-tech-that-lets-you-pay-with-your-face-or-hand.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">based on purchases</a>. Accuracy is a problem While the accuracy of face recognition technologies has previously been challenged, the current best facial authentication algorithms have an error of just 0.08%, according to tests by the <a href="https://github.com/usnistgov/frvt/blob/nist-pages/reports/1N/frvt_1N_report_2020_03_27.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">National Institute of Standards and Technology</a>. In some countries, even banks have <a href="https://techhq.com/2020/09/biometrics-the-most-secure-solution-for-banking/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">become comfortable</a> relying on it to log users into their accounts. Yet we can’t know how accurate the technologies used in Mastercard’s biometric checkout system will be. The algorithms underpinning a technology can work almost perfectly when trailed in a lab, but perform <a href="https://www.csis.org/blogs/technology-policy-blog/how-accurate-are-facial-recognition-systems-%E2%80%93-and-why-does-it-matter" target="_blank" rel="noopener">poorly</a> in real life settings, where lighting, angles and other parameters are varied. Bias is another problem In a 2019 study, NIST <a href="https://nvlpubs.nist.gov/nistpubs/ir/2019/NIST.IR.8280.pdf#page=5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">found</a> that out of 189 facial recognition algorithms, the majority were biased. Specifically, they were less accurate on people from racial and ethnic minorities. Even if the technology has improved in the past few years, it’s not foolproof. And we don’t know the extent to which Mastercard’s system has overcome this challenge. If the software fails to recognise a customer at the check out, they might end up disappointed, or even become irate – which would completely undo any promise of speed or convenience. But if the technology misidentifies a person (for instance, John is recognised as Peter – or <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e8-yupM-6Oc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">twins are confused</a> for each other), then money could be taken from the wrong person’s account. How would such a situation be dealt with? <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464424/original/file-20220520-19-5hfuvx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464424/original/file-20220520-19-5hfuvx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464424/original/file-20220520-19-5hfuvx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464424/original/file-20220520-19-5hfuvx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464424/original/file-20220520-19-5hfuvx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464424/original/file-20220520-19-5hfuvx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=776&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464424/original/file-20220520-19-5hfuvx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=776&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464424/original/file-20220520-19-5hfuvx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=776&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="" /></a><figcaption>There’s no evidence facial recognition technology is infallible. These systems can misidentify and also have biases. Shutterstock</figcaption></figure> Is the technology secure? We often hear about software and databases being hacked, even in <a href="https://www.csoonline.com/article/2130877/the-biggest-data-breaches-of-the-21st-century.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cases of</a> supposedly very “secure” organisations. Despite Mastercard’s <a href="https://wwmastw.cnbc.com/2022/05/17/mastercard-launches-tech-that-lets-you-pay-with-your-face-or-hand.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">efforts</a> to ensure security, there’s no guarantee the third-party providers’ databases – with potentially millions of people’s biometric data – won’t be hacked. In the wrong hands, this data could lead to <a href="https://www.comparitech.com/identity-theft-protection/identity-theft-statistics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">identity theft</a>, which is one of the fastest growing types of crime, and financial fraud. Do we want it? Mastercard suggests 74% of customers are in favour of using such technology, referencing a stat from its <a href="https://www.mastercard.com/news/ap/en/newsroom/press-releases/en/2020/april/mastercard-study-shows-consumers-moving-to-contactless-payments-for-everyday-purchases/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">own study</a> – also used by <a href="https://www.mastercard.com/news/ap/en/newsroom/press-releases/en/2020/october/mastercard-idemia-and-matchmove-pilot-fingerprint-biometric-card-in-asia-to-enhance-security-and-safety-of-contactless-payments" target="_blank" rel="noopener">business partner</a> Idemia (a company that sells biometric identification products). But the report cited is vague and brief. Other studies show entirely different results. For example, <a href="https://www.getapp.com/resources/facial-recognition-technology/#how-comfortable-are-consumers-with-facial-recognition-technology" target="_blank" rel="noopener">this study</a> suggests 69% of customers aren’t comfortable with face recognition tech being used in retail settings. And <a href="https://www.securitymagazine.com/articles/93521-are-consumers-comfortable-with-facial-recognition-it-depends-says-new-study" target="_blank" rel="noopener">this one</a> shows only 16% trust such tech. Also, if consumers knew the risks the technology poses, the number of those willing to use it might drop even lower.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183447/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rita-matulionyte-170113" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Rita Matulionyte</a>, Senior Lecturer in Law, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/macquarie-university-1174" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Macquarie University</a> This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/pay-with-a-smile-or-a-wave-why-mastercards-new-face-recognition-payment-system-raises-concerns-183447" target="_blank" rel="noopener">original article</a>. Image: Getty Images

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