Climate scientist warns a deadly bushfire season is "likely"
An early climate model has suggested a hot and dry El Niño could form once La Niña - the event responsible for three years of flooding rains - comes to a slow close.
Should this be on the horizon, a summer of drought, heatwaves and bushfires are all but certain according to a climate expert.
The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) released its latest climate driver update on Thursday, stating ocean temperatures "remain warmer than average in the western Pacific".
Models indicate sea-surface temperatures may exceed El Niño thresholds in the equatorial Pacific by June.
Dr Wenju Cai, a climate scientist with the CSIRO, said an El Niño is "likely" to form.
"We have been through three years of La Niña, during each of which heat is stored in the equatorial Pacific," he told 9News.com.au.
"With so much heat charged in the equatorial Pacific, an El Niño is readily triggered by relaxation of the trade winds over the region."
"(The) majority of prediction models are predicting an El Niño by the summer.”
After extreme wet weather conditions and soaking rains, Cai holds fears for the next bushfire season - warning it could recall the grim scenes of Black Summer of 2019 and early 2020.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) says heatwaves are among the most dangerous of natural hazards.
Cai said Australia should know for certain what the summer will hold by June.
"Between March and May, predictability is low as this is a period in which there is high noise, the so-called autumn predictability barrier," he said.
One thing is for certain though, La Niña is drawing to a close.
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