Why coronavirus may be more contagious than initially thought
The new coronavirus has now reached 13 countries, with the outbreak “spreading quicker than SARS”.
More than 3,000 cases and 82 deaths have been reported globally. Five people in Australia, including four in NSW and one in Victoria, have been confirmed to have contracted the 2019-nCoV virus.
Experts from the Chinese University of Hong Kong suggest the outbreak, which began in China’s Hubei province, could be more contagious than originally thought.
In a study based on data collected between January 10 and 21, Shi Zhao and colleagues found that each infected person could pass the virus to three to five other people.
According to Robin Thompson, mathematical epidemiologist at University of Oxford, the virus may be more potent than expected. “If the virus is able to spread before symptoms show, that could certainly explain why the virus is spreading quicker that SARS,” Thompson told New Scientist.
SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, infected more than 8,000 people across 37 countries in 2003. Both viruses came from the same family and could cause pneumonia.
“SARS took several months to cause a thousand cases,” said Thompson. “This has caused [almost] 3000 cases in three weeks.”
The World Health Organization (WHO) recommended the general public to protect themselves against the disease by frequently cleaning hands, practicing food safety, and avoiding close contact with anyone with cold or flu-like symptoms.
Australia’s chief medical officer Professor Brendon Murphy told the ABC over the weekend the general public should not panic. “There is no risk to Australian population other than people with that travel history or who have been in contact with those people,” he said.
Dr Michael Mina, an epidemiology researcher at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health told Los Angeles Times evidence has yet to suggest that coronavirus is “more virulent” than the common flu. “Most people, with proper medical attention, will do just fine.”