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Alan Jones once seemed unassailable. What ended it was a peculiarly Sydney story of media, politics and power

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/denis-muller-1865">Denis Muller</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> For decades it seemed Alan Jones was unassailable. A finding against him of professional misconduct by the Australian Broadcasting Authority (2000); a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/tribunal-upholds-that-jones-incited-hatred-20121002-26x8h.html">finding</a> that he incited hatred, serious contempt and severe ridicule of Lebanese Muslims (2009); propositions of violence against two women prime ministers (<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-10-20/alan-jones-says-gillard-remark-best-left-unsaid/3579658">2011</a> and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-21/alan-jones-breached-rules-in-jacinda-ardern-comment/12271476">2019</a>); verdicts against him and his employer amounting to millions of dollars in defamation actions (most notably <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-12/alan-jones-defamed-wagners-court-decision-brisbane-qld/10230384">one for $3.75 million</a> in 2018): none of these ended his career. Quite the reverse. Only weeks after the Australian Broadcasting Authority found in its “cash for comments” inquiry that Jones and others had misled their listeners by presenting paid endorsements as editorial opinion, he was hosting an event for then prime minister John Howard. Howard was to become a fixture on the Jones program throughout the 11 years of his prime ministership. The day after the Australian Communications and Media Authority found Jones was likely to have encouraged violence and vilification of Australians of Lebanese and Middle Eastern background, Howard <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/jones-wins-friends-in-high-places-20070412-ge4n4f.html">described him</a> as “an outstanding broadcaster”. “I don’t think he’s a person who encourages prejudice in the Australian community, not for one moment, but he is a person who articulates what a lot of people think.” By 2001, Jones had become a kind of on-air policy-maker for the New South Wales government. In November that year, he dined with the then Labor premier, Bob Carr. They discussed a range of government policies, particularly policing. At that time, Jones was a relentless critic of the NSW police. The following week, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-10-01/newton-alan-jones/4288824">Carr dispatched</a> his police minister-designate, Michael Costa, to Jones’s home to discuss policing policy. In 2011 he said Julia Gillard, then Australia’s prime minister, should be taken out to sea and dumped in a chaff bag. In August 2019 he said Scott Morrison, who was then Australia’s prime minister, should “shove a sock” down the throat of his New Zealand counterpart Jacinda Ardern. He was an outspoken climate-change denier, and these grotesqueries were part of his campaign against political recognition of this reality. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Od6I1YbrBoM?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></figure> Jones’s power, which made him so apparently untouchable, came from his weaponising of the microphone for conservative political ends in ways that resonated with his vast and rusted-on audience of largely working-class older people across Sydney’s sprawling western suburbs. These suburbs contain many marginal state and federal electorates where the fates of governments can be decided. Their populations provide fertile ground for seeding by right-wing radio shock jocks, of whom Jones and his rival John Laws were pre-eminent examples. In Australia, this is a peculiarly Sydney phenomenon. It is not seen to the same degree in any other capital city, even though they too have large areas of socioeconomic disadvantage like western Sydney. Why that should be so is a complex question, but there are aspects of Sydney life that mark it out as different. It is really two cities. One is the largely prosperous and scenically dazzling east and north. The other, much larger, consists of dreary tracts of increasingly crowded housing stretching for many kilometres to the west and southwest. In Sydney argot, the inhabitants of these respective worlds are called “silvertails” and “fibros”, the latter referring to the cladding of the homes that proliferated in western Sydney between and after the two world wars. This two-cities effect makes the gap between the “haves” and the “have-nots” highly visible in a way that has no parallel in other Australian capitals. It engenders deep-seated grievance and cynicism, which the likes of Jones, who lives in a multimillion-dollar apartment on Circular Quay, have relentlessly exploited. Jones coined the term “Struggle Street” to encapsulate the hardships of his listeners’ lives. To these powerless people, Jones and Laws gave a voice, and as their audiences grew, prime ministers and premiers courted and feared them. In the end, Jones’s impregnability was breached by not the power elite turning on one of their own, but by the journalism of a redoubtably tenacious Sydney Morning Herald investigative reporter, Kate McClymont. In December 2023, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/he-d-go-the-grope-alan-jones-accused-of-indecently-assaulting-young-men-20231205-p5epai.html">she claimed</a> Jones had used his position of power, first as a teacher and later as the country’s top-rating radio broadcaster, to allegedly prey on a number of young men. In response to McClymont’s work, the NSW police set up Strike Force Bonnefin, run by the State Crime Command’s Child Abuse Squad, to conduct an investigation into Jones. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/0ExkpCtfmA8?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></figure> On November 18 2024, Jones was arrested at his Circular Quay home and charged initially with 24 sexual offences against eight males. The following day, two <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-19/alan-jones-charged-with-additional-offences-nsw-police/104617680">additional charges</a> were laid involving a ninth male. Through his lawyers, Jones has denied the charges and was bailed to appear in Sydney’s Downing Centre Local Court on December 18. He <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/alan-jones-arrested-over-allegations-he-indecently-assaulted-young-men-20241118-p5krdu.html">was ordered</a> to surrender his passport and not to contact or harass the alleged victims. The charges relate to offences alleged to have been committed by Jones between 2001 and 2019, the youngest alleged victim being 17 at the time. Those dates coincide almost exactly with Jones’s most influential years, from 2002 to 2020. McClymont <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/a-stunning-development-kate-mcclymont-on-alan-jones-arrest-and-what-s-next-20241118-p5krln.html">has spoken</a> about the reluctance of some of her interviewees to speak, for fear of what Jones might do: "People were too afraid to take on Alan Jones. Once a couple of people came forward, and some people were happy to be publicly named, that gave confidence for other people to come forward.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/243942/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />" <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/denis-muller-1865">Denis Muller</a>, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Advancing Journalism, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> Image credits: Getty Images This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/alan-jones-once-seemed-unassailable-what-ended-it-was-a-peculiarly-sydney-story-of-media-politics-and-power-243942">original article</a>. </div>

Legal

How hip pain led Sydney karate master to life-changing weight loss journey

<div> Sydney-based karate instructor and personal trainer Glenn Stephenson knows the toll that joint pain and extra weight can take on physical activity. Despite decades of experience as a martial arts coach, Glenn found himself increasingly limited by severe hip pain and unwanted weight gain. </div> <div> In 2021, at 95 kilograms, the 64-year-old’s arthritis and reduced mobility affected not only his work but also his confidence. “I couldn’t move around like I wanted to, and as a master instructor, it felt wrong to be teaching students while carrying so much extra weight,” he admits. </div> <div> Glenn’s pain and discomfort prompted him to make a drastic change. Instead of resorting to extreme dieting, he adopted a more sustainable approach to weight loss to reduce joint and liver inflammation, and regain his mobility. He shed 20 kilograms and now walks four kilometres daily. “I can move better, my mental health has improved, and I feel more capable of guiding my students,” he says. </div> <div> Today, Glenn encourages others struggling with weight to take a balanced approach to fitness and health. “I look the part now, which gives me confidence as a master instructor to show my students that staying active is achievable at any age.” </div> <div> Dietitian Kirby Sorenson, from health platform <a title="https://www.getmosh.com.au/?utm_term=mosh&utm_campaign=Cross_Search_Brand_Mosh&utm_source=paid-search&utm_medium=adwords&utm_content=100740202037&hsa_acc=5792635568&hsa_cam=1701000406&hsa_grp=100740202037&hsa_ad=697110582898&hsa_src=g&hsa_tgt=kwd-295213997936&hsa_kw=mosh&hsa_mt=p&hsa_net=adwords&hsa_ver=3&gclid=CjwKCAiAxKy5BhBbEiwAYiW--5qfGzQVQBG-CmA6baVMEeP5Zmk_oB_GOstA1n2vabFrLzbeDrEEnxoCM4YQAvD_BwE" href="https://www.getmosh.com.au/?utm_term=mosh&utm_campaign=Cross_Search_Brand_Mosh&utm_source=paid-search&utm_medium=adwords&utm_content=100740202037&hsa_acc=5792635568&hsa_cam=1701000406&hsa_grp=100740202037&hsa_ad=697110582898&hsa_src=g&hsa_tgt=kwd-295213997936&hsa_kw=mosh&hsa_mt=p&hsa_net=adwords&hsa_ver=3&gclid=CjwKCAiAxKy5BhBbEiwAYiW--5qfGzQVQBG-CmA6baVMEeP5Zmk_oB_GOstA1n2vabFrLzbeDrEEnxoCM4YQAvD_BwE" data-outlook-id="bc4b923a-a4a3-4af0-80db-e837cd64b4c7">Mosh</a>, is encouraging Australians to ditch the Body Mass Index (BMI) in favour of more modern diagnostics to determine the risk of disease linked to higher body fat, declaring it’s unfairly categorising people as being overweight. </div> <div> Ms Sorenson says knowing your Body Roundness Index (BRI) as well as your Basal Metabolic Rate (BMR) can more accurately predict the risk of diseases like high blood pressure, type 2 diabetes and heart disease because it works out body fat levels based on height and waist circumference, rather than the BMI method which relies on height and weight. </div> <div> “BMI has long been criticised for inaccurately categorising people as overweight or obese because it doesn’t differentiate between those who carry a lot of muscle and individuals with fat in the wrong places,” Ms Sorenson says. </div> <div> “The problem is that it only looks at overall weight, while the BRI focuses on fat held around the abdomen which is the riskiest fat in terms of overall health. </div> <div> Once the BRI is determined, Ms Sorenson says it can help to know your Basal Metabolic Rate, which is largely determined by your total lean mass to help determine a healthy path to maintaining a healthy weight range. </div> <div> “The basal metabolic rate or BMR gives you an idea of how many calories your body burns doing the bare minimum; breathing, blood circulation, brain and nerve function. It can vary greatly from person to person, which explains why individual weight loss journeys can be so different,” Ms Sorenson said. </div> <div> For more information visit Moshy’s online <a title="https://www.getmoshy.com.au/weight-loss/basal-metabolic-rate-calculator?srsltid=AfmBOoobS-PiI_4sJn2ykpEG6vzq6qkvQXammfLv4Rm-mS5nwll6EN0m" href="https://www.getmoshy.com.au/weight-loss/basal-metabolic-rate-calculator?srsltid=AfmBOoobS-PiI_4sJn2ykpEG6vzq6qkvQXammfLv4Rm-mS5nwll6EN0m" data-outlook-id="800f9af2-0a34-4ac4-801b-d16714c7ec2e">BMR calculator</a>. Image credits: Supplied </div>

Body

Father breaks silence after wife and two children die in tragic drowning

Hoai Nguyen, 32, and her two children, Mitchell, 7, and Hazel, 5, were enjoying a day out at Shearer Park in south-west Sydney, and were walking down to a small pier on the waterfront before they were spotted <a href="https://www.oversixty.com.au/health/caring/unimaginable-sorrow-mother-and-two-children-drown-during-family-outing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">struggling in the Georges River</a> about 10.15am on Saturday. Hoai was pulled to shore shortly afterwards, but despite desperate attempts by rescuers and bystanders she could not be revived. The bodies of the two children were recovered a few hours later, metres from a jetty. The children's father, Dinh Nguyen, had been at work during the incident and only found out about the tragedy when police showed up at his house. He has since broken his silence, and told The Sydney Morning Herald that his wife was navigating a mental illness prior to her death. “She has bipolar disorder, and she has some ups and some downs,” he told the publication. “She takes medicine. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.” He also recalled one of the last conversations the couple had, the night prior to the tragedy. “She told me the last night she didn’t sleep so she wanted to stay at home,” he said. According to The Daily Telegraph, detectives are now probing whether the incident was premeditated as they continue their investigations into the tragedy. The southwest Sydney community has since rallied around the family's loved ones, with bouquets of flowers and tributes seen at the riverbank as part of a growing memorial. A close friend of the family, Sarah Vu, has also organised a <a href="https://www.gofundme.com/f/hoai-mitchell-and-hazel-nguyen" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GoFundMe</a> page for the family which has since raised over $60,600 of their $40,000 goal. “I sincerely thank the entire community for their contributions,” she wrote in a social media tribute on Monday. “The family have decided to bring Hoai and the kids back to Vietnam. “The fund has currently exceeded my expectations, but I will keep the link open for anyone who still wants to donate.” "All we can do now is pray for you and the little ones to depart peacefully,” she added with a video of two young kids holding hands and skipping down a street together. Need to talk to someone? Don't go it alone. Lifeline: 13 11 14, <a href="https://www.lifeline.org.au/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lifeline.org.au </a> SANE Support line and Forums: 1800 187 263, <a href="https://saneforums.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">saneforums.org</a> Headspace: 1800 650 890, <a href="https://headspace.org.au/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">headspace.org.au</a> Beyond Blue: 1300 224 635, <a href="beyondblue.org.au" target="_blank" rel="noopener">beyondblue.org.au </a> Images: Facebook/ GoFundMe

Caring

"Unimaginable sorrow": Mother and two children drown during family outing

A mother and two children have died after struggling to swim in a Sydney waterway, with tributes and donations flowing in to support the grieving father. Hoai Nguyen, 32, and her two children, Mitchell, seven, and Hazel, five, were enjoying a day out at Shearer Park in south-west Sydney on Sunday, when they were spotted in distress in the waters of the Georges River. Hoai was pulled from the river, but despite the best efforts of bystanders and paramedics, she was unable to be revived. Police and volunteers from the State Emergency Service launched a large search and rescue operation for the two children, with divers locating their bodies in the water hours later, metres from a jetty. According to <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/sydney-news-georges-river-mother-hoai-nguyen-and-children-drown-lansvale/c8601ec9-47a1-4a79-8a12-67c3ff18f3ea" target="_blank" rel="noopener">9News</a>, the children's father and Hoai's husband had been at work during the incident and was only alerted to the tragedy when police showed up at his house. A <a href="https://www.gofundme.com/f/hoai-mitchell-and-hazel-nguyen" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GoFundMe</a> page has been set up by a family friend to support the children's father, Hoai's husband, and their one-year-old brother during the "time of unimaginable sorrow". "A beloved mother and her two young children tragically drowned... leaving behind a profound void in our hearts and a father and baby who is only 1 years old," the fundraiser reads. An investigation into how the mother and her children ended up in the water is ongoing, as NSW Police acting superintendent Luke Scott yesterday described the tragedy as "beyond words". Image credits: GoFundMe

Caring

Father reveals alarming details after young model found dead in Sydney brewery

Savana Calvo, 27, was <a href="https://www.oversixty.com.au/health/caring/tragedy-as-young-model-dies-in-popular-brewery" target="_blank" rel="noopener">found dead</a> in the bathroom of Young Henry's brewery in Newtown, at around 11.30pm on Wednesday. As tributes pour in for the young model, her father, Daniel Paul Calvo has revealed that she allegedly received death threats in the week prior to her death. “As her father, I knew very well that she was being harassed and stalked, and I tried to intervene. Although we were very close, daughters only tell their parents so much,” he told The Daily Telegraph. “There’s more and more coming out, she was involved with some dodgy young guys, owed money, and leading up to last week she was getting multiple death threats.” The death threats that were allegedly sent to her will form part of an ongoing investigation into her death, NSW Police have confirmed. Friends and family have paid tribute to the fallen model, and started a GoFundMe page to cover her funeral costs. They said that “those who knew her best, knew that she went through some trying times." “She was a cherished daughter, sister and friend who brought so much love and light into all of our lives. She will be deeply missed by all who knew her.” The fundraiser has since raised over $30,000 for the model. Images: Instagram/ Google Maps

Caring

Tragedy as young model dies in popular brewery

A young woman has died suddenly at a popular Sydney brewery. Savana Calvo, 27 tragically passed away at the Young Henry's brewery in Newtown at about 11.30pm last Wednesday. Her death is not being treated as suspicious, but her loved ones have revealed she had been going through "trying times" before her death. “It is with heavy hearts that we announce the passing of our beloved Savana, 27,” the model's friend Adam St John-Foti wrote online. “She was a cherished daughter, sister and friend who brought so much love and light into all of our lives. “She will be deeply missed by all who knew her. “Those who knew her best, knew that she was went through some trying time these past in recent times that led to her tragic passing.” Friends have rallied around her family, with St John-Foti setting up a <a href="https://www.gofundme.com/f/savana-calvo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GoFundMe</a> page, which has so far raised over $28,000 to help her family cope with funeral costs. He added that he family were "spellbound" by the outpouring of support. “Your generosity will make a meaningful difference in ensuring that Savana is laid to rest with the dignity, respect, and celebration she deserves,” the page read. “We also appreciate your thoughts, prayers, and messages of support during this difficult time. “Your kindness means the world to Savana’s family as we navigate through our grief.” Another friend of the model has remembered her as a “smiling and a kind gentle soul” who would “be missed so much". “Fly high beautiful angel. I haven’t stopped thinking of you since I found out about your passing ... I will miss you Savvy.” Coopers Hotel, another Newtown institution has also paid tribute to Calvo, saying: “It is with heavy hearts that Newtown grieves the loss of a beloved member of its community Savana C." “Sav’s family has started a go fund me to help with funeral costs, please donate if you can.” Young Henrys was closed to the public on Thursday with police spotted on the outside. There is no suggestion of any wrongdoing by the brewery. Images: GoFundMe/ Instagram

Caring

"Green cordial" water in Sydney harbour baffles residents

A bay in Sydney Harbour has turned neon green, with authorities currently investigating the cause. Locals were baffled when they saw the bay along Hipwood Street in Kirribilli, near Milsons Park, turn bright green at about 3pm on Wednesday, with many calling the incident "unusual". Firefighters said they were "alerted to a large spill of fluorescent green material flowing into the harbour". One local described the water as "green cordial" and said it resembled "radioactive stuff you see in superhero movies". NSW Fire and Rescue then conducted several tests and said the water is not toxic and is currently not harming the environment. The Fire and Rescue team are now trying to flush out the green substance, and said that the incoming rain should help turn the water colour back to normal. Another resident told 9News that they had seen green water in a stormwater drain at Anderson Park, along Clark Road, on Tuesday, before the green colour spread to the bay on Wednesday. Later in the afternoon, a North Sydney Council spokeswoman confirmed that were no major pollutants in the green water: “At this stage our engineers believe the substance is likely to be fluorescein, which is used as a dye for plumbing works. Fluorescein is a non-toxic substance and breaks down with UV light. The green colour is a feature that makes it easy to trace.” Green water was also spotted in Neutral Bay on Wednesday according to another local. Image: Nine

Travel Trouble

‘It’s time to give up on normal’: what winter’s weird weather means for the warm months ahead

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/david-bowman-4397">David Bowman</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tasmania-888">University of Tasmania</a> Heavy winds struck south-east Australia over the weekend as a series of cold fronts moved across the continent. It followed a <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/australia-weather-update-nsw-and-victoria-damaging-winds-high-fire-danger-warnings/0f9b19d8-dc81-44c9-8df4-679cbb67c055">high fire danger</a> in Sydney and other parts of New South Wales last week, and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-28/fire-grass-emergency-warning-firefighter-horningsea-park/104281180">a fire in south-west Sydney</a> that threatened homes. The severe weather rounds out a weird winter across Australia. The nation’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/aug/26/winter-heat-records-broken-as-australia-set-for-more-temperatures-over-10c-above-average">hottest ever winter temperature was recorded</a> when Yampi Sound in Western Australia reached 41.6C on Tuesday. Elsewhere across Australia, winter temperatures have been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/aug/28/nsw-weather-forecast-fire-danger-warnings-sydney-bom">way above average</a>. We can look to the positives: spring <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/aug/26/australias-early-spring-brings-budding-flowers-chirping-birds-and-climate-alarm">flowers are blooming early</a>, and people have donned t-shirts and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/spring-comes-early-after-warm-winter-with-more-heat-on-the-way-20240828-p5k63i.html">hit the beach</a>. But there’s a frightening undercurrent to this weather. Earth’s climate has become dangerously <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/extreme-weather/">unstable</a>, and it’s only a matter of time before we get the bad combination of hot and dry weather, strong winds and a spark. None of this should come as a surprise. The sooner we stop expecting Australia’s weather to be “normal”, the sooner we can prepare for life in a wild climate. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/003XSg5AZBk?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></figure> <h2>The green is deceiving</h2> The landscape around Sydney – and in fact, across much of south-east Australia – is very green at the moment. That’s because we’ve had a couple of years of good rains which triggered an explosion of vegetation growth. The below NASA satellite image reveals the picture in stark detail. It’s certainly lush out there at the moment. But the problem with climate change is that weather conditions can turn on a dime. This August was a case in point. At month’s end, much of Australia was hit by a record-breaking heatwave and <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_col.shtml">damaging winds</a> – conditions that can dry out a green landscape with devastating efficiency, turning it into fuel for a bushfire. The dangerous fire weather that struck Sydney this week came as a surprise to many. But in reality, these abnormal conditions are the new normal. We must open our minds to this, if we want to be prepared. <h2>A climate off the rails</h2> The year 2023 was Earth’s <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/2023-was-warmest-year-modern-temperature-record#:%7E:text=The%20year%202023%20was%20the,decade%20(2014%E2%80%932023).">hottest on record</a>. And <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-2024-now-very-likely-to-be-warmest-year-on-record/">2024 looks likely</a> to be hotter still. In Australia, the last 12 months have provided all the evidence we need that our climate is wobbling on its rails. In October 2023, Victoria’s Gippsland region suffered unseasonably early bushfires, then soon after battled <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-05/gippsland-fires-and-multiple-floods-breeding-resilience/103179368">heavy rain and flooding</a>. And Tasmania, where I live, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-07/tas-drought-conditions-as-dry-tasmania-looking-very-brown/103546058">has been gripped by drought</a>. This February was Hobart’s third driest in 143 years. But over the weekend we were hammered by a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-01/tas-flood-warnings-severe-weather-sunday/104296092">deluge of rain and wind</a>. This climate instability is setting up bad fire conditions. Not everywhere in south-east Australia will be hit by fire, but it will happen somewhere. It could be the hinterlands or the coast. It will depend on how our erratic climate behaves in the coming months. Let’s stick with the Tasmania example. Sure, the surface soils are now nicely saturated. But that will lead to a burst of grass and other vegetation in spring. If the dry weather returns and the temperatures heat up in summer, the fine fuels will dry out and become dangerously combustible. All we need then is a windy day and a spark, and a nightmare fire will soon be racing across the landscape. <h2>Canada on fire</h2> Of course, Australia is not the only country facing climate instability and a worsening fire risk. Canada suffered a catastrophic wildfire season in 2023 – one of the most severe on record. It burnt almost 15 million hectares and forced the evacuation of 232,000 people. Smoke produced by the fires affected communities up to 1,000 km away, such as in southern Canada and on the east coast of the United States. A <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-02653-6">recent paper</a> in the journal Nature Communications outlined why. It pinpointed early snowmelt, early-season drought conditions and intense heat. In fact, the average temperature in Canada from May to October last year was 2.2°C higher than the 30-year average. The researchers said human-caused climate change exacerbated the fire’s effects. It went on: <blockquote> The disproportionate effect a few days of extreme weather can have on the total area burned is also evident in this fire season, leading to worrisome prospects given projected future conditions. </blockquote> <h2>Normal no longer exists</h2> It’s always been difficult to forecast fire seasons in Australia, due to our natural climate variability. But now we are seeing climate instability <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/research/environmental-impacts/climate-change/state-of-the-climate/previous/state-of-the-climate-2018/australias-changing-climate">layering over itself</a>: background dryness, wet seasons bringing a proliferation of fuels, and above-average temperatures. Eventually we’ll get unlucky and experience extremely strong winds thrown into the mix. That’s when catastrophic fires are most likely to occur. As we saw in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-black-summer-of-fire-was-not-normal-and-we-can-prove-it-172506">Black Summer of 2019–20</a>, and again in Canada last year, some fires are so intense they completely overwhelm fire suppression strategies. Under climate change, the likelihood of getting a bad combination of weather conditions is increasing. So what’s the remedy? Australia really must start making our communities more resilient. Serious and sustained adaptation is needed. As my <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.adi8066">research has outlined</a>, this requires the careful integration of: <ul> <li>community education programs</li> <li>research and development to design fire-safe homes, gardens, communities and bushland</li> <li>incentives and penalties to ensure adaptation measures are implemented.</li> </ul> As this winter has shown, Australia’s climate is entering a different phase. It’s time to give up on “normal” weather. The game is changing and we have to adapt.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/237857/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/david-bowman-4397">David Bowman</a>, Professor of Pyrogeography and Fire Science, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tasmania-888">University of Tasmania</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-time-to-give-up-on-normal-what-winters-weird-weather-means-for-the-warm-months-ahead-237857">original article</a>. </div>

Travel Trouble

"So Australian": Local trust praised for response to illegal tree cutting

A resident's decision to cut down a tree for a better view of Sydney Harbour has backfired after a sign was erected where the tree once stood, to condemn tree vandalism. Following multiple reports of resident carrying out tree vandalism along affluent streets, the Sydney Harbour Federation Trust has called out the behaviour by setting up the sign in the Sydney lower North Shore suburb of Woolwich. "Tree vandalism has occurred in this area," the sign read. "The Sydney Harbour Federation Trust protects and manages this land for the enjoyment of the public. "Acts of vandalism like this deprive all of us of the natural environment." The sign also warned that offenders could be subject to fines and/or prosecution as punishment, and urged those who notice any suspicious activity to contact 8969 2100. After an image of the sign was shared to a Sydney group on social media, the local trust's actions have been praised, with many saying they "loved how petty this is" and one even declaring the response "so Australian". "I hope they keep this sign, as a reminder to anyone contemplating doing something similar," one commented. "We're petty but we have a right to be. You don't f**n poison or cut down trees. F**n unacceptable behaviour," another added. Others accused the person who cut down the tree of being "entitled". In last November alone, over 300 native trees and shrubs vanished in front of multi-million dollar homes along the Sydney Harbour waterfront strip. Lane Cove Council believe that hand tools were used to silently cut down the trees, which impacts plants, and local wildlife including wallabies, possums and dozens of other species. On Monday, the council put out a statement saying its "pursuit of justice" is now ramping up, referring to the incident as "the largest tree vandalism case in Lane Cove’s recent history". They are trying to obtain permission to put up a sign to block "the harbour view of the property which would most benefit from the mass clearing of the trees." "As the area is classified as a Threatened Ecological Community and contains some items of Aboriginal Heritage, it was important the appropriate approvals were in place before installing the signage," the council added. "The legal case and banner installation are important steps in our commitment to seeking the strongest possible recourse response to send a message that we stand tall against tree vandalism." Images: Reddit

Legal

40°C in August? A climate expert explains why Australia is ridiculously hot right now

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-king-103126">Andrew King</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> It’s winter in Australia, but as you’ve probably noticed, the weather is unusually warm. The top temperatures over large parts of the country this weekend were well above average for this time of year. The outback town of Oodnadatta in South Australia recorded 38.5°C on Friday and 39.4°C on Saturday – about 16°C above average. Both days were well above the state’s previous winter temperature record. In large parts of Australia, the heat is expected to persist into the coming week. A high pressure system is bringing this unusual heat – and it’s hanging around. So temperature records have already fallen and may continue to be broken for some towns in the next few days. It’s no secret the world is warming. In fact, 2024 is shaping up to be <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-2024-now-very-likely-to-be-warmest-year-on-record/">the hottest year on record</a>. Climate change is upon us. Historical averages are becoming just that: a thing of the past. That’s why this winter heat is concerning. The warming trend will continue for at least as long as we keep burning fossil fuels and polluting the atmosphere. Remember, this is only August. The heatwaves of spring and summer are only going to be hotter. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GmhMKjxEGQo?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe><figcaption>Widespread heat forecast for Australia in August, 2024 (Bureau of Meteorology)</figcaption></figure> <h2>Records broken across Australia</h2> The Bureau of Meteorology was expecting many records to be broken over the weekend across several states. On Thursday, bureau meteorologist Angus Hines described: <blockquote> A scorching end to winter, with widespread heat around the country in coming days, including the chance of winter records across multiple states for maximum temperature. </blockquote> The amount of heat plunging into central Australia was particularly unusual, Hines said. On Friday, temperatures across northern South Australia and southern parts of the Northern Territory were as much as 15°C above average. Temperatures continued to soar across northern parts of Western Australia over the weekend, with over 40°C recorded at Fitzroy Crossing on Sunday. It has been 2–12°C above average from Townsville all the way down to Melbourne for several days in a row. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Animated maximum temperature anomaly map showing heat building across central Australia" /></a><figcaption>Maximum temperature anomalies from August 19-24, showing heat building across Australia. Bureau of Meteorology, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></figcaption></figure> Bear in mind, it’s only August. As Hines said, the fire weather season hasn’t yet hit most of Australia – but the current conditions – hot, dry and sometimes windy – are bringing moderate to high fire danger across Australia. It may also bring dusty conditions to central Australia. And for latitudes north of Sydney and Perth, most of the coming week will be warm. <h2>What’s causing the winter warmth?</h2> <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_col.shtml">In recent days</a> a stubborn high pressure system has sat over eastern Australia and the Tasman Sea. It has kept skies clear over much of the continent and brought northerly winds over many areas, transporting warm air to the south. High pressure promotes warm weather – both through clearer skies that bring more sunshine, and by promoting the descent of air which <a href="https://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/2544/explainer-what-influences-air-temperature/">causes heating</a>. By late August, both the intensity of the sun and the length of the day has increased. So the centre of Australia can really warm up when under the right conditions. High pressure in June can be associated with cooler conditions, because more heat is lost from the surface during those long winter nights. But that’s already less of an issue by late August. This kind of weather setup has occurred in the past. Late-winter or early-spring heat does sometimes occur in Australia. However, this warm spell is exceptional, as highlighted by the broken temperature records across the country. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Graph of August Australian-average temperatures increasing since 1910" /></a><figcaption>August temperatures have been rising over the past century. Bureau of Meteorology</figcaption></figure> <h2>Feeling the heat</h2> The consequences of humanity’s continued greenhouse gas emissions are clear. Australia’s winters are getting warmer overall. And winter “heatwaves” are becoming warmer. Australia’s three warmest Augusts on record have all occurred since 2000 – and <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-is-australia-having-such-a-warm-winter-a-climate-expert-explains-210693">last August was the second-warmest since 1910</a>. When the right weather conditions occur for winter warmth across Australia, the temperatures are higher than a century ago. The warmth we are experiencing now comes off the back of <a href="https://theconversation.com/earth-has-just-ended-a-13-month-streak-of-record-heat-heres-what-to-expect-next-236655">a recent run of global temperature records</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-heat-is-breaking-global-records-why-this-isnt-just-summer-and-what-climate-change-has-to-do-with-it-234249">extreme heat events across the Northern Hemisphere</a>. This warm spell is set to continue, with temperatures above 30°C forecast from Wednesday through to Sunday in Brisbane. The outlook for spring points to continued <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/temperature/maximum/median/seasonal/0">above-normal temperatures</a> across the continent, but as always we will likely see both warm and cold spells at times. Such winter warmth is exceptional and already breaking records. Climate change is already increasing the frequency and intensity of this kind of winter heat – and future warm spells will be hotter still, if humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions continue.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/237398/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-king-103126">Andrew King</a>, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/40-c-in-august-a-climate-expert-explains-why-australia-is-ridiculously-hot-right-now-237398">original article</a>. </div>

Domestic Travel

Brave bystanders praised after mass Sydney stabbing

New details have emerged after multiple people were stabbed following a car crash in Sydney's south, on Sunday. Emergency crews were called to the intersection of Princes Highway and Old Bush Road at about 9am after receiving several triple zero calls about a crash. A 58-year-old man, who was known to police for "a number of matters" and suspected of carrying out the wild attacks, was allegedly found running from the scene by officers. He was later pursued on foot, tasered and taken into custody, and remains in Liverpool Hospital in serious condition, as he appeared to have inflicted a number of injuries to himself before the police arrived. A policeman was also injured during the arrest after the alleged offender stabbed him on his arm. A woman in her 40s, was allegedly being assaulted by the man as he drove, and is believed to be the partner of the alleged offender. “They were in a domestic relationship, there is no history that we are aware of, there is no apprehended violence orders between the two but definitely domestic related,” Superintendent Donald Faulds told a press conference on Sunday afternoon. “We believe the female was being assaulted in the car while the male was driving the vehicle at the same time. “A number of witnesses mentioned the car was driving quite erratically at the time and we believe that’s when the assault was occurring in the car and as result they then collided with another vehicle.” The female passenger was transported to hospital and is in a critical condition. Three other people were also injured, after they had rushed over to the accident to help. It is alleged that he had a box-cutter. “A number of members of the community stopped to assist occupants from both those vehicles,” the Superintendent said. “As community members were assisting one of the females out of one vehicle, a male got out of that vehicle. He was armed with what we believe to be a box cutter.” One witness reportedly told radio station 2GB that he saw a man get out of the car appearing to be armed with a box cutter, yelling “I’m going to kill you”. A NSW spokesman said of those injured, one male patient had sustained slash wounds to his arms and his neck and has been taken to Liverpool Hospital and is now in a serious but stable condition. A woman in her 40s was taken to St George Hospital with multiple stab wounds and is in critical condition. Another woman was hospitalised in a serious condition with a stab wound to the abdomen. The police officer sustained a large laceration to his arm and is in a stable condition. Superintendent Faulds praised the brave bystanders who went to assist those in the crash, without knowing what was about to unfold. “Amazing work, they’ve just turned up thinking it was a normal motor vehicle accident so they’ve obviously have gone to render assistance to both people and then they were faced with a male armed with a box cutter, quite frightening but very brave on those peoples’ behalf,” he said. He has asked the community to reach out to Crime Stoppers or Sutherland Police if they have any information about the incident. Images: Nine News

Caring

Australia rallies behind grieving mum after Carlton train tragedy

Australians have rallied together to raise money for the wife of a hero father who died along with his daughter after they were <a href="https://www.oversixty.com.au/health/caring/father-remembered-for-instinctive-act-of-bravery-before-train-tragedy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tragically struck</a> by a train. Anand Runwal, 40, and his two-year-old daughter were killed at Sydney's Carlton train station on July 21 after a pram carrying the twin girls fell onto the train tracks. One of the twins miraculously survived and was rescued by police who crawled under the train when they heard her crying. Now, nearly $140,000 has been raised for his wife, Poonam, who reportedly flew back to India to be with family and bury her husband, according to the Daily Mail. “In the face of this unimaginable loss and grief, we come together as family, friends and colleagues to support the family of Anand Runwal, a hero who sacrificed everything to try and save his twin daughters during the Carlton Train Station tragedy,” the fundraiser read. “Anand was a calm, humble and friendly person who was liked by everyone he associated with. “Let’s surround the Runwal family with love, kindness, and generosity. Every donation, share, and message of support brings comfort and hope to those affected by this tragedy.” The fundraiser has exceeded its initial goal of $20,000 and has now been closed. Nadeen Ahmed, who runs the Indians in Sydney Facebook group has shared Poonam's reaction to the generosity of everyone who donated. “They initially wanted to raise $20,000 to help her with her immediate expenses but they were overwhelmed by the response and people’s generosity,” Ahmed told the Daily Mail. "They ended up raising almost $140,000 in just a couple of days, which they never expected. "They raised so much they decided to close the fundraiser and that money has now all been transferred to Mrs Runwal," she continued. “It’s a very hard situation for her, knowing what to do. She’s heading back to India to be with family because it is going to take months and months for her to deal with this tragedy.” NSW Police Superintendent Paul Dunstan was one of many who praised Runwal’s "brave and heroic" act. NSW Premier Chris Minns, who lives close to the station, also praised the father's "instinctive act of bravery", adding “that’s not going to bring him or his little daughter back, but it shouldn’t go unremarked upon in the face of a terrible, terrible accident. “He gave his life to try and save his children.” Images: Facebook

Caring

Cause of death revealed after eight-year-old dies mid-flight

The cause of death of an eight-year-old girl who died suddenly mid-flight has been revealed. Sydney Weston was travelling with her family from their home state of Missouri to Chicago on June 13th when she suddenly fell ill on the flight and died. Now, according to Peoria County Coroner Jamie Harwood, Sydney was suffering from at least five different illnesses at the time of her death. The eight-year-old reportedly died from complications of chronic primary adrenalitis coupled with several infections, including enterovirus and strep, as well as inflammation of the small intestines known as duodenitis and the thyroid gland inflammation commonly known as thyroiditis. Harwood found that the long list of conditions suggests Sydney may have suffered from an autoimmune disorder which left her body attacking its own healthy cells and harming organ operation. Sydney suffered a medical emergency onboard the flight, causing the plane to divert to Peoria, Illinois, for an emergency landing, but Sydney died after being rushed to a nearby hospital. Results from a previously released preliminary autopsy were inconclusive but found that her body showed no signs of abuse, neglect or foul play. At the time of her sudden and tragic death, Sydney was just a week away from celebrating her ninth birthday. “She will forever be remembered for the happiness she brought to every single person she encountered. Our hearts are heavy. She was our baby girl and we celebrate her beautiful life,” her obituary read. Image credits: Instagram

Caring

Antarctic heat, wild Australian winter: what’s happening to the weather and what it means for the rest of the year

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/martin-jucker-379172">Martin Jucker</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-sydney-1414">UNSW Sydney</a> Australia’s south and east have seen <a href="https://theconversation.com/southern-australia-is-freezing-how-can-it-be-so-cold-in-a-warming-climate-233977">freezing temperatures</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jul/29/australia-winter-weather-forecast-east-coast-colder-records">wild weather</a> this winter. At the same time, the continent as a whole – and the globe – have <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-03/australia-suffers-cold-winter-weather-despite-mild-forecast/104176284">continued to warm</a>. What’s going on? As ever, it’s hard to pinpoint a single cause for weather events. But a key player is likely an event unfolding high above Antarctica, which itself may have been triggered by a heatwave at surface level on the frozen continent. Here’s what’s happening – and what it might mean for the rest of this year’s weather. <h2>When the stratosphere heats up</h2> Out story begins in the cold air over Antarctica. July temperatures in the stratosphere, the layer of air stretching between altitudes of around 10 and 50 kilometres, are typically around –80°C. The winds are also very strong, averaging about 300 kilometres per hour in winter. These cold, fast winds loop around above the pole in what is called the <a href="https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/waugh/research/polarvortex">stratospheric polar vortex</a>. Occasionally, persistent high air pressure in the lower atmosphere can influence large-scale waves that extend around the globe and up into the stratosphere. There they cause the strong winds to slow down, and the air high above the pole to become much warmer than normal. In extreme situations the stratospheric winds can completely break down, in what is called a “sudden stratospheric warming” event. These events occur every few years in the northern hemisphere, but only one has ever been observed in the south, in 2002 (though another <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-air-above-antarctica-is-suddenly-getting-warmer-heres-what-it-means-for-australia-123080">almost happened in 2019</a>). <h2>Pushing polar weather our way</h2> Once the polar vortex is disturbed, it can in turn influence the weather at the surface by steering weather systems from the Southern Ocean towards the Equator. However, this is a slow process. The impact at the surface may not be felt until <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0425.1">a few weeks or even months</a> after the initial weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex. Once it begins, the stratospheric influence can prevail for more weeks or months, and helps meteorologists make <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022">long-range weather forecasts</a>. In climate science terms, the weak stratospheric winds put an atmospheric system called the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/sam/">Southern Annular Mode</a> into a negative phase. The main effect of this on surface weather is to bring westerly winds further north. In winter, this means polar air outbreaks can reach places like Sydney more easily. As a result, we see more <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4134.1">rain over much of southern Australia</a>, and snowfall in alpine regions. In spring and summer it means westerly winds blow over the continent before reaching the east coast, bringing warm and dry air to southeastern Australia. The exact impact of a weaker polar vortex depends on how much and for how long the weather systems are being pushed further northward. It will also depend on other weather influencers such as El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole. <h1>This winter’s weirdness</h1> Unpicking exactly why any weather event occurs is tricky at the moment, because global weather has been absolutely crazy over the past 12 months or so. Global temperatures are <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-just-blew-past-1-5-degrees-game-over-on-climate-not-yet-213364">much higher than usual</a>, which is making unusual weather very common. But there are indications that the stratosphere is having some influence on our weather this winter. The stratospheric polar vortex started to warm in mid-July, and is about 20°C warmer than the long-term average. At the time of writing, the winds slowed down to about 230 kilometres per hour, 70 kilometres per hour slower than average. These numbers mean that, technically, the event does not qualify as a sudden stratospheric warming. However, further warming may still occur. If we look at how southern hemisphere winds have evolved in the past few weeks, we see a pattern which looks like what we would expect from a sudden stratospheric warming. First, we see warming in the stratosphere which is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095270">at first accompanied by a poleward shift of weather systems</a>. The stratosphere’s influence then propagates downward and seems to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0425.1">induce many weeks</a> of weather systems shifted towards the equator. This coincides with the period of cold and rainy weather along Australia’s east coast in late July and the beginning of August. Forecasts suggest the Southern Annular Mode will be a long way from normal conditions in the first half of August – four standard deviations below average, which is extremely rare. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/611211/original/file-20240804-19-sp862a.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/611211/original/file-20240804-19-sp862a.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/611211/original/file-20240804-19-sp862a.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/611211/original/file-20240804-19-sp862a.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/611211/original/file-20240804-19-sp862a.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/611211/original/file-20240804-19-sp862a.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/611211/original/file-20240804-19-sp862a.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/611211/original/file-20240804-19-sp862a.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Diagram showing atmospheric warming and winds" /></a><figcaption>How initial warming high in the stratosphere ends up changing winds near the surface and pushing polar weather further north. <a class="source" href="https://stratobserve.com">Z.D. Lawrence / StratObserve / Annotated by Martin Jucker</a></figcaption></figure> <h1>A surface disturbance</h1> The main reason for the polar vortex to slow down is disturbances from the surface. Weather over the Amundsen Sea near Antarctica in the South Pacific is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0425.1">an important source</a> of these disturbances. This year, we have seen disturbances of this sort. There have been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/01/antarctic-temperatures-rise-10c-above-average-in-near-record-heatwave">near-record surface temperatures around Antarctica</a>. These disturbances may be due to the globally high ocean temperatures, or even lingering effects of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0437.1">eruption of the Hunga Tonga volcano in 2022</a>. But more research will be required to confirm the causes. <h1>What should we expect for the rest of the year?</h1> There are two pathways until the end of the year. One is that the stratospheric winds and temperatures recover to their usual values and no longer influence surface weather. This is what the forecasts from <a href="https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov">Ozone Watch</a> seem to suggest. Another is that the stratosphere keeps warming and the winds keep being slower all the way into summer. In this scenario, we would expect a persistent negative Southern Annular Mode, which would mean a spring and potentially even summer with warmer and drier than usual weather over southeastern Australia, and a small ozone hole. The seasonal forecasting models from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts <a href="https://x.com/drahbutler/status/1819142206348759170?s=46&t=sayfGwpo3_s310BwYpcdcQ">seem to favour this second scenario</a>. <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/martin-jucker-379172">Martin Jucker</a>, Senior Lecturer in Atmospheric Science, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-sydney-1414">UNSW Sydney</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/antarctic-heat-wild-australian-winter-whats-happening-to-the-weather-and-what-it-means-for-the-rest-of-the-year-236067">original article</a>. </div>

Travel Trouble

Is Australia’s climate confusing you? Here’s why rainfall and temperatures don’t always behave as expected

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/carly-tozer-1404662">Carly Tozer</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/csiro-1035">CSIRO</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/james-risbey-2011">James Risbey</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/csiro-1035">CSIRO</a> In the past few years in Australia, seasonal rainfall and temperatures have left a lot of people confused. Sometimes, the hot, dry conditions usually associated with an El Niño have not eventuated. Similarly, there have been years where a La Niña did not lead to the cool, wet conditions expected. It’s important for scientists to better understand all weather processes at play, so we can manage expectations around what Australia might experience when climate drivers such as El Niño and La Niña are forecast in future. That’s where our <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/aop/MWR-D-23-0112.1/MWR-D-23-0112.1.xml">new research</a> comes in. We examined the state of play in November 2020 and November 2021. La Niña conditions occurred in both years. November 2021 followed the La Niña script and was wet and cool, but November 2020 departed from expectations and was dry and warm. We set out to determine why. We found the differences could be explained by fluctuations in the path of storms over the Australian continent. These fluctuations can be hard to predict well in advance, which makes it difficult to say for certain how a particular La Niña or El Niño event will affect Australia. <h2>A tale of two Novembers</h2> For large parts of Australia, the presence of a La Niña or El Niño <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-an-el-nino-the-answer-might-surprise-you-198510">shifts the odds</a> of experiencing wet or dry conditions. Our analysis of Novembers 2020 and 2021 shows how actual outcomes can differ from, or align with, expectations. The first step in our analysis was to examine <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-does-el-nino-do-to-the-weather-in-your-state-218257">other climate drivers</a>, including the Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Annular Mode. We wanted to know if these drivers were in the same phase – negative, neutral or positive – during those two Novembers a year apart. So what did we find? In addition to La Nina, both Novembers occurred during positive Southern Annular Mode phases and very weak negative Indian Ocean Dipole phases. These phases are typically associated with more rainfall in Australia. So this didn’t explain why November 2020 was hot and dry. Next, we looked to the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/?bookmark=mjo">Madden Julian Oscillation</a>. When this driver is located in the Australian region, it has been linked to more rainfall in Australia. Although the oscillation was in different phases during November 2020 and 2021, we found in general, this driver does not strongly influence rainfall across all of Australia in November. It was time to look for answers elsewhere. <h2>Jet streams: a key piece in the puzzle</h2> Next, we examined weather systems – in other words, the movement of high and low pressure systems across the globe. These systems are partly controlled by jet streams, which are bands of wind in the upper atmosphere. The effect of jet streams on weather systems, including storms, means they influence rainfall in the regions they pass over. We found there was a strong jet stream over Australia in November 2021. This would have assisted the development of any rain-bearing low-pressure systems moving in from the west, allowing these systems to travel across the Australian continent. These systems brought rain and contributed to the very wet conditions. In November 2020, the jet stream was largely absent over Australia. Instead, it was pushed south of the continent, which means rainfall systems received little help and were also largely steered south. That contributed to the dry month. But why did the jet streams develop in the first place? They form in part due to temperature differences, and are found in the zones where the temperature contrast between warm and cool air is strongest. In November 2021, Australia experienced cooler temperatures over land, but above-average sea surface temperatures in the waters off northern Australia. This pattern set up the zone of strongest temperature contrasts over the continent, which led to a persistent jet stream there. In November 2020, Australia was relatively warm both over land and on the sea surface to the north. This meant that the strongest temperature contrasts (and the jet stream) now sat at the junction between the warm continent and cooler Southern Ocean. <h2>But wait, there’s more</h2> So why were temperatures over Australia so different? To help answer this question we shifted our analysis from the monthly timescale to the daily timescale. That’s because atmospheric features such as jet streams vary strongly from day to day. We found for about the first three weeks of November 2021, a large low-pressure system – also known as a trough – was sitting south of Australia. It pumped cold air onto the continent, cooling it down. This maximised the north-south temperature difference between the warm sea surface temperatures to the north of Australia and the cool of the continent. And as we know, this aided the development of the jet stream over Australia. In November 2020, the continent started off relatively warm. And for a large portion of the month, there was a large high-pressure system over Australia, pulling warmer air from the tropics over the continent. This system would have also promoted clear skies over Australia and enhanced heating coming from the sun, contributing to the warm Australian continent in November 2020. <h2>More puzzle pieces to fit</h2> November 2020’s hot, dry conditions were not the only time a climate driver has failed to bring the conditions some had anticipated. Just last year El Niño <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/jan/03/experts-warned-el-nino-was-likely-to-bring-australia-a-hot-dry-summer-what-happened">did not deliver</a> expected dry conditions, leaving many people scratching their heads. Climate drivers play an important role in shaping rainfall. But they’re not the whole story. As our research shows, sometimes they are confounded by changes in weather patterns, which might mean that our expectations of a wet month or season don’t always play out. When it comes to Australia’s climate puzzle, these findings show there’s more to understand about the role of weather.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/233345/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/carly-tozer-1404662">Carly Tozer</a>, Senior Research Scientist, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/csiro-1035">CSIRO</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/james-risbey-2011">James Risbey</a>, Researcher, Oceans and Atmosphere, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/csiro-1035">CSIRO</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-australias-climate-confusing-you-heres-why-rainfall-and-temperatures-dont-always-behave-as-expected-233345">original article</a>. </div>

Domestic Travel

Sydney Olympics icon opens up on domestic violence abuse

In a rare and candid interview, former child star Nikki Webster has spoken about her challenging journey of recovery from domestic violence. The 37-year-old, known for her iconic performance at the 2000 Sydney Olympics and the hit song "Strawberry Kisses", shared her experiences on KIIS FM’s The Kyle and Jackie O Show. Webster, now a mother of two and the owner of a dance school, opened up about her struggles during a segment of the show. When co-host Kyle Sandilands inquired about her dating life, he seemed unaware of her much-publicised marriage breakdown in 2019, where her ex-husband was charged with a domestic violence offence. “I’m single,” Webster replied, prompting Sandilands to ask, “Why? Where’s your bloke?” She described the situation as “a long story” and “not a very happy story", revealing she had faced “a pretty hard few years”. Webster was previously married to Qantas flight attendant Matthew McMah. The couple, who married in 2012, separated eight years later. In November 2019, it was revealed that McMah had been convicted of assaulting Webster earlier that year. He received an $880 fine at the Downing Centre Local Court. Encouraged by Sandilands' lighthearted questions, Webster chose to share more about her past, mentioning her challenging experiences with domestic violence. “I come from quite a bad background of some domestic violence and stuff. So, I’m happy to be on the other side of that and, you know, focusing on life and kids,” she said. Webster confirmed she is doing "great" now, focusing on her children and her life. In a previous interview with Woman’s Day, Webster expressed hope for future love while reaffirming her commitment to her children. "I hope one day the right person will come along and it will just happen," she said, adding, "But I’m really happy with being a mum; it’s my favourite job in the world." Images: Instagram / KIISFM

Family & Pets

Father remembered for "instinctive act of bravery" before train tragedy

A family outing has ended in tragedy when a pram carrying twin girls rolled onto the train tracks at Carlton railway station in Sydney. CCTV footage showed the family heading off on their outing just several minutes before tragedy struck. They were walking down the footpath, with the father holding the pram and the mother pulling a trolley bag, before waiting to cross the road to the train station. The parents had arrived on the platform via an elevator and taken their hands off the pram for a "very, very short period of time" when it began to roll, according to NSW Police Superintendent Paul Dunstan. The 40-year-old father is being remembered for his bravery, after he jumped onto the tracks to try and save his twin daughters. Horrified witnesses also tried to flag the train down, but unfortunately it was too late. Emergency services were called to the station at around 12:25 pm. The father and one of the two-year-old girls were killed, and the girls' mother who witnessed the accident unfold was left "incredibly traumatised" according to the Superintendent. Dunstan told reporters several hours after the tragedy that responding officers could hear crying from underneath the train. “Police climbed under the train and rescued one of the children, who was thankfully unharmed, and reunited her with the mother," Dunstan said. “Sadly, the other child, a two-year-old female, and her father who attempted to save the child, have passed away as a result of this incident.” “Whether it’s a gust of wind ... we’re not quite sure. But it appears that the pram has instantly started to roll in the direction of the train lines.” The father has been praised for his "brave and heroic" act. “He’s gone into parent mode and tried to save his two young daughters that have fallen onto the tracks and in doing so it’s cost his life, but it’s an incredibly brave and heroic act,” Dunstan said. The other daughter, who had survived, had fallen between the tracks and was "lucky" to have escaped injury, Dunstan added. The train was heading from Cronulla to the City and wasn't due to stop at Carlton. A police investigation is underway and the National Rail Safety Regulator had also been informed. Premier Chris Minns described the incident as a “terrible, terrible tragedy”. “This is a very confronting and sad day for the St George community,” he said. “I hope over time they can gain some small solace knowing that the father died from an extraordinary, instinctive act of bravery. “That’s not going to bring him or his little daughter back. But it shouldn’t go unremarked upon in the face of a terrible, terrible accident, he gave his own life to try and save his children.” Images: Channel 9

Caring

From lettuce fields to opera stages – the brilliant journey of Helen Sherman

How does a young girl growing up on a lettuce farm in rural New South Wales, surrounded by the quiet rustle of leaves and the hum of daily farm life, go on to become such a powerful voice on the operatic scene? This is the unlikely beginning of Helen Sherman, the Australian-British mezzo-soprano who has taken the world of opera by storm. Sherman’s musical journey began at the Sydney Conservatorium of Music, where her extraordinary voice started to attract attention. It wasn't long before her ambition led her to the prestigious Royal Northern College of Music (RNCM) in the UK. There, she honed her craft, setting the stage for a remarkable career that would see her representing Australia at the BBC Cardiff Singer of the World competition and the Francisco Viñas International Singing Competition. Sherman's rise to operatic fame has been nothing short of meteoric. Her versatility and talent have seen her perform a wide range of roles across the globe. Recent highlights include Flora in La traviata at the Royal Opera House, Covent Garden, and Octavian in Der Rosenkavalier and Cherubino in Le nozze di Figaro with Opera North. Her portrayal of Tamiri in Farnace with Pinchgut Opera and Dorabella in Così fan tutte at Teatru Manoel in Malta further cemented her reputation as a mezzo-soprano of extraordinary range and depth. One of Sherman’s standout performances was her interpretation of the title role in Carmen with the State Opera South Australia. Her embodiment of Carmen’s fiery spirit and complex emotions captivated audiences and critics alike. Equally compelling was her portrayal of Giulio Cesare with Bury Court Opera, a role that showcased her ability to navigate the demanding vocal and dramatic challenges of baroque opera. In 2024, Sherman’s calendar is as busy as ever, as she will be singing Dorabella in Così fan tutte and Mistress of the Novices in Suor Angelica for Opera Australia, roles that promise to highlight her versatility and emotional depth. <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1rem; color: #212529; font-family: -apple-system, 'system-ui', 'Segoe UI', Roboto, 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol', 'Noto Color Emoji'; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">Over60 was lucky enough to be able to interview Sherman in the lead-up to her Sydney performances of <a href="https://opera.org.au/productions/il-trittico-sydney/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Il Trittico</a> and <a href="https://opera.org.au/productions/cosi-fan-tutte-sydney/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Così fan tutte</a>: O60: How did you become an opera singer after growing up on a lettuce farm in rural NSW? “It was quite a journey. My father was an incredible piano accordionist (think Flight of the Bumblebee, Malagueña etc). In the 1970s his teaching studio in Bathurst peaked at about 40 accordion students, which I think is quite remarkable. After his father died, Dad stepped back from his teaching to take over the family farm, though he still plays to this day. “My mother is a music lover, and wanted her children to have the opportunity to explore creative outlets that she wasn't fortunate enough to explore in her youth, so my brother, sister and I all had lessons in piano accordion, piano, dancing, drama and singing. We were fortunate to live in a town that had many thriving arts organisations, such as the Dolly McKinnon School of Dance, Bathurst Eisteddfod Society and Mitchell Conservatorium of Music. “Bathurst's Carillon Theatrical Society (for which my dad's cousin, the late, great, Carole Eastment, was choreographer) afforded us the opportunity to be part of full-scale classic musical productions. I was also fortunate to attend MacKillop College, a local Catholic high school of humble proportions, that had a very passionate and resourceful music teacher, Mr David Eyles. Thanks to him, students like me were able to star in wittily re-written and orchestrated G&S productions. With such a plethora of opportunities at my feet, my love of the stage was pretty much pre-determined. “Upon graduating high school, aged seventeen, I moved to Sydney to take up a place at the Sydney Conservatorium of Music, where I completed a Bachelor of Music and a post graduate diploma in opera. At this stage, I wasn't really in love with opera, that came later, when I found myself covering third novice in OA's 2007 production of Suor Angelica. “During the last studio run of the show, mere metres away from me, star soprano Cheryl Barker was singing the final solo notes of the title role: ‘Madonna! Madonna! Salva me! Salva me!’, tears streaming down her face, and the most incredible voice soaring out; I had chills all over my body and in my soul, and I have loved opera ever since.” O60: You were based in London for years; how did you find the opera world overseas versus in Australia – in both your studies and performing? “I guess the main differences are that the UK scene is a bigger one with more companies and more music schools; a more international one, that students and professionals from around the world flock to, and one with – historically – more financial backing and patronage. However, the scene in the UK has suffered dramatically in the last few years, particularly with the effects of Brexit compounded by COVID, cost-of-living crisis and embarrassingly ignorant cuts made by the Arts Council. “Generally, abroad, there are many more opportunities for musicians, but many, many more musicians competing for them. It is an awe-inspiring thing to meet and work with musical idols like Roger Vignols, Julius Drake, Yvonne Kenny etcetera, to sing a piece of music in the venue in which it premiered or was composed for; to tread the same cobblestones that the likes of Mozart and Handel trod and to delight in the discovery that the shoes or trousers you're wearing in a production bear the name of the likes of Dame Sarah Connolly.” “However, I would say that there is plenty of exciting stuff going on in Australia and an optimism and openness in the Australian people, which is impactful on our industry and its creative output. “More needs to be done in our country to insure all children are given creative learning outlets for the benefit of their development, their communities and for the future of our industry.” O60: Why did you return to Sydney and how are you enjoying it? Any future plans to head back overseas? “After a health scare in 2022 that forced me to cancel all my work, my husband received a job offer to relocate to Sydney. It felt like the universe was opening a door for us, so we gladly walked through it, and onto a flight to Sydney in mid 2023. I have felt welcomed (back!) with open arms both personally and professionally and I have no imminent plans to return abroad, at this stage.” O60: You’ve appeared in many staged productions as well as concerts. What do you like about these two types of performances? “Concert performances are a chance to home in on the music and the words without worrying about physical action. Staged productions afford the performer the luxury of inhabiting and exploring a character, physically, right down to their shoes and petticoats. Both are wonderful ways of working and some works naturally lend themselves to one or the other – though, I think for opera, context is key, and can be a challenge to properly manufacture on the concert platform.” O60: Tell us about your two characters and how do you prepare for performing two roles in different operas in the same season? “I've been playing the role of Mistress of Novices in Suor Angelica and am currently preparing the role of Dorabella in Così fan Tutte. One is a senior nun and the other an excitable teenage girl, so they are rather disparate. “The big challenge is in the early days of learning and memorising the role. Once you have a grasp of the music, the libretto and who you are, it's about showing up and reacting to your world. Preparing disparate roles concurrently can be a vocal challenge, since tessitura and vocal gesture have a big impact on how one might approach a score. I like to keep in touch, daily, with technical exercises that encourage economy and flexibility in my voice, especially when I'm working on contrasting roles. Thankfully, the human voice is a very sensitive instrument and responds intuitively to intention and emotion, so developing the character arc and subtext helps a lot with that. O60: What should audiences be watching and/or listening out for Il Trittico versus in Così fan tutte? “There's so much to enjoy so let it wash over you in broad, beautiful, very human brushstrokes!! Or, if you love little details, in Il Trittico see if you can spot which singers appear in all three operas and watch out for Frugola's bag of strange objects in Il Tabarro. You'll learn a lot from the body language and small glances between characters in the world of Suor Angelica, and in Gianni Schicchi, well, I am told there is a very interesting door stop! “In Così fan Tutte, listen out for the way Mozart creates subtext for his characters; tiny details, like Dorabella needing to sing a third higher than Fiordiligi (because she is the competitive younger sister!) when emotionally fraught in some of their act one recitatives! Mozart is a genius of musical detail!” O60: Do you have any dream roles you’re yet to perform? “There are too many to list, but I adore the role of Octavian in der Rosenkavalier by Strauss (a role I have sung, but would love to revisit) and I would love to sing Ariodante by Händel.” --- <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1rem; color: #212529; font-family: -apple-system, 'system-ui', 'Segoe UI', Roboto, 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol', 'Noto Color Emoji'; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="color: #212529; font-family: -apple-system, 'system-ui', 'Segoe UI', Roboto, 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol', 'Noto Color Emoji'; font-size: 16px;">Click here for more information on <a href="https://opera.org.au/productions/il-trittico-sydney/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Il Trittico</a> and <a href="https://opera.org.au/productions/cosi-fan-tutte-sydney/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Così fan tutte</a>.

Music

Southern Australia is freezing. How can it be so cold in a warming climate?

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-king-103126">Andrew King</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> People living in southern Australia won’t have failed to notice how cold it is. Frosty nights and chilly days have been the weather for many of us since the start of July. As winter continues, we are left wondering how unusual the cold is and whether we can expect several more months of this. Warmer conditions are in the forecast but winter has a long way to go. Further cold snaps could occur. Cold conditions have been in place across southern Australia for the past few days. Temperatures have fallen below zero overnight in many places. It’s not just the nights that have been cold. Maximum temperatures have also been below or well below average across most of the country. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/604809/original/file-20240704-20-l50kpt.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/604809/original/file-20240704-20-l50kpt.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/604809/original/file-20240704-20-l50kpt.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/604809/original/file-20240704-20-l50kpt.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/604809/original/file-20240704-20-l50kpt.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/604809/original/file-20240704-20-l50kpt.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/604809/original/file-20240704-20-l50kpt.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/604809/original/file-20240704-20-l50kpt.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="" /></a><figcaption>Maximum temperatures have been below average across most of the continent since the last day of June. <a class="source" href="http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp">Bureau of Meteorology</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></figcaption></figure> <h2>What’s causing the cold?</h2> A <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_col.shtml">persistent and strong high-pressure system</a> has been hanging around over southeast Australia. The atmospheric pressure was so high it approached the Australian record of 1,044.3 hPa set on June 7 1967. An <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-04/australias-highest-air-pressure-recorded-weather/104055462">initial observation</a> of a new record has since been disregarded, but nonetheless this is an exceptional, near-record high-pressure pattern. This high-pressure system has kept the weather dry but clear nights have allowed strong cooling of the land surface. The long nights and short days of early July mean that temperatures struggle to rise during the day and can fall quickly in the evenings. In winter we expect cold weather across most of Australia and occasional cold snaps that bring widespread frosty and icy conditions. However, this current cold weather is pretty unusual and we are seeing some records fall. Notably, Tasmania has had its <a href="https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/tasmanias-2ndcoldest-night-on-record/1889603">lowest July temperature on record</a> and the second-lowest minimum temperature for any time of year with –13.5°C at Liawenee in central Tasmania early on Thursday morning. While Tasmania has produced the most remarkable records, the cold conditions have been unusual elsewhere too. Adelaide recorded its lowest temperature in 18 years on Wednesday morning. And many suburbs of Melbourne experienced a sub-zero night and consecutive nights of <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/frost-and-ice/frost">ground frost</a>. <h2>Winters are warming but cold spells still occur</h2> As the world is warming, it might seem surprising we can still break cold records. Indeed, across Australia <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=tmean&area=aus&season=0608&ave_yr=0&ave_period=6190">winters have been warming</a>. The <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/extremes/trendmaps.cgi?map=CN05&period=1950">frequency</a> and <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/extremes/trendmaps.cgi?map=TNmn&period=1950">intensity</a> of very low temperatures have been decreasing over the past few decades. We also see many more hot records than cold records being set in Australia and around the globe. This is <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-hot-weather-records-continue-to-tumble-worldwide-86158">due to human-caused climate change</a>. However, when we have the right weather conditions, cold records are still occasionally broken locally. As we continue to warm the planet, it’s getting harder for us to find cold records, particularly over larger regions or longer time periods. While we still see record cold temperatures at individual weather stations, we won’t see another cold record in the global average temperature and probably not even in the Australian average temperature. As this week shows, we still occasionally get daily cold records in the current climate. But it’s much harder to get record cold months, and record cold years at a given location are almost impossible. As we average weather conditions across locations or over time, the climate change signal becomes clearer over background weather variability. It makes new cold records much less likely to occur. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/605048/original/file-20240704-21-7ep1rt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/605048/original/file-20240704-21-7ep1rt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/605048/original/file-20240704-21-7ep1rt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/605048/original/file-20240704-21-7ep1rt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/605048/original/file-20240704-21-7ep1rt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/605048/original/file-20240704-21-7ep1rt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/605048/original/file-20240704-21-7ep1rt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/605048/original/file-20240704-21-7ep1rt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="A graphic showing the increase in annual average temperature for Australia from 1910 to 2023" /></a><figcaption>The climate change signal is becoming clearer as Australia’s annual average temperature continues to increase with each decade, widening the difference from the long-term mean. <a class="source" href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/#tabs=Temperature">Bureau of Meteorology</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></figcaption></figure> <h2>How much longer will this cold snap last?</h2> Southern Australia is experiencing a cold snap at close to the coldest time of year. It’s not long after the winter solstice, when we experience the longest night of the year. We still have a few more cold days and nights ahead in parts of southeastern Australia. By early next week, the forecast suggests <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml">warmer conditions</a> will return as the high-pressure system moves east and winds turn northerly. The outlook for the rest of winter points firmly to <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/summary">above-average daytime and night-time temperatures</a>. This is partly because a historical average (1981–2018) is used and warming since then means above-average temperatures are going to happen most of the time. In any winter, Australia has cold outbreaks. So, even if the next few months are likely to be warmer than normal, we should expect a few cold days and nights at some point. Learning to live with the cold and improving the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/ng-interactive/2024/jul/03/why-so-many-australian-homes-are-either-too-hot-or-too-cold">quality of insulation in Australian homes</a> would help make our winter cold snaps seem a lot less harsh.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/233977/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-king-103126">Andrew King</a>, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/southern-australia-is-freezing-how-can-it-be-so-cold-in-a-warming-climate-233977">original article</a>. </div>

Domestic Travel

I watched some 40 films at this year’s Sydney Film Festival. Here are my top five picks – and one hilarious flop

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ari-mattes-97857">Ari Mattes</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-notre-dame-australia-852">University of Notre Dame Australia</a> This year’s <a href="https://www.sff.org.au/">Sydney Film Festival’s</a> rich offerings of films more than compensated for the minor technical issues that led to some screenings being interrupted. Out of the 40-odd films I saw, here are my top five, along with some notable mentions and three disappointments (including a genuine dud). <h2>1. The Girl with the Needle</h2> Cowritten and directed by Swedish filmmaker Magnus von Horn, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Girl_with_the_Needle">The Girl with the Needle</a> is loosely based on the story of notorious early-20th century serial killer Dagmar Overbye. But this is no procedural true crime film, painstakingly attempting to recreate crimes with historical accuracy. It’s a stylish Danish nightmare dazzling with cinematic acrobatics right from the opening sequence, in which black and white faces hideously morph, looking at the viewer like deranged figures from a hellish circus. It is, indeed, one of the most terrifying films I’ve seen. The narrative follows the struggles of new mother Karoline (Vic Carmen Sonne) as she gives her baby to Dagmar’s informal adoption agency and begins working with her as a wet nurse, unaware of what’s really going on. Sonne is as self-assured as ever – and none of the actors put a foot wrong here. Seasoned Danish film star Trine Dyrholm is exceptional in bringing nuance to what could have become a caricaturishly evil role as Dagmar. And Besir Zeciri endows Peter, a war-wounded veteran who can only find employment in a circus freakshow, with an unexpected warmth and tenderness. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VlyW-z1xbO4?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></figure> The Girl with the Needle features some of the most distressing sequences one could find in a commercial film. Its meticulously rendered shades of German expressionism never distract from its smorgasbord of horrors, offering an almost unbearably bleak vision of the world in the aftermath of the Great War. If only all films were this good! <h2>2. Dying</h2> I’d normally suppress a yawn if you told me I had to sit through a three-hour social realist drama about the everyday difficulties of a bourgeois German conductor and his family. Yet writer-director Matthias Glasner’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dying_(2024_film)">Dying</a> is a near perfect film (no surprise it won <a href="https://www.screendaily.com/news/matthias-glasners-dying-wins-german-lola-for-best-film/5193046.article">four prizes</a> at the German Film Awards). The film is complex and engrossing – deeply sad in places and hysterical in others – formally controlled, but underpinned by an anarchic sensibility. It is life-affirming without any skerrick of sentimentality. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/kagVqEfPxFw?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></figure> Lars Eidinger is astonishingly good as maestro Tom, who is trying to keep his career on track as his family life crumbles around him. He is matched by Lilith Stangenberg, mesmerising as his unhinged sister Ellen. Robert Gwisdek is equally exceptional as the highly strung composer and friend Bernard, while Corinna Harfouch anchors the film’s first section as Tom’s far from maternal mother, Lissy. At one point, Ingmar Bergman’s 1982 period film <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fanny_and_Alexander">Fanny and Alexander</a> is playing on the TV (Tom watches it every Christmas). Even though Dying feels like a contemporary film committed to interrogating the difficulties of being in the modern world, there’s something of late Bergman here as it unfolds across its epic length. It is a three-hour film about middle-class life, but like a great 19th-century novel, it never feels long. The fact that nothing particularly extraordinary happens is testament to how well-made the film is. <h2>3. Kill</h2> Director Nikhil Nagesh Bhat’s Indian action film <a href="https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/kill_2023_2">Kill</a> is cheesy, sentimental and at first seems remarkably silly. Commando Amrit, played by beefy TV star Lakshya, is travelling to New Delhi by train with his buddy, fellow commando Viresh (Abhishek Chauhan). His true love Tulika (Tanya Maniktala) is also on board and has recently become engaged to another man through an arrangement by her wealthy father, Baldev Singh Thakur (Harsh Chhaya), who happens to own the train company. When a group of 30-plus bandits led by the charming but ice-cold Fani (Raghav Juyal) move to rob the train, Amrit must defend Tulika, her family and the rest of the passengers. When the title card appears 40 minutes into the film, suddenly emblazoned on the screen, it seems like a distracting quirk at first. But it begins to make sense as the train rolls on. All of the violence and bone-crushing action of the first section is mere preamble, leading to a point of transition from an extremely violent but fun action film, to a much darker – and bloodier – revenge film. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/da7lKeeS67c?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></figure> Kill is an exceptionally well-wrought genre film. The kinetic and balletic action recalls the golden era of Hong Kong action cinema, but with hammers, daggers and sickles instead of guns and the frenetic staging of hand-to-hand combat instead of poetic slow-motion footage. It is also a great example of a film being more than the sum of its parts. No element is perfect, yet they come together to transcend these limitations, its flow reaching sublime levels by the end. There’s also an undercurrent of sadness throughout. We see an India of haves and have-nots, of families of bandits struggling to survive and of the supreme violence sustaining the social and political order. As Fani says to Amrit near the end: “Who kills like this? I killed four of your people. You finished off 40 of my family. You’re not a protector. You’re a monster. A fucking monster.” The title says it all. <h2>4. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story</h2> Biographical films about celebrities inevitably feel gossipy. Ian Bonhôte and Peter Ettedgui’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super/Man:_The_Christopher_Reeve_Story">Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story</a> is no exception. But it is so well made (and well-resourced, one would imagine, as it’s produced by DC) that it moves beyond its tabloid-like qualities. Interviews with Reeve’s friends and colleagues, including Susan Sarandon, Glenn Close and Jeff Daniels, are interspersed with home footage shot by Reeve and his family throughout his career and during his recovery from the near-fatal riding accident that left him paralysed and breathing through a respirator for the rest of his life. Reeve’s close friendship with “brother” Robin Williams assumes central importance, with the film implying the two men were so emotionally dependent on each other that Williams would probably still be alive if Reeve hadn’t died in 2004. But the most interesting parts of the film involve carefully assembled archival footage looking at how Reeve’s decision to play Superman negatively impacted his career and personal life. He never starred in another profitable film, and his father and colleagues such as William Hurt loathed his decision to play a comic book character. This is counterpointed with his post-accident career as a director and disability advocate. Interviews with Reeve’s children add a genuinely tragic sense of pathos to this slick, well-made and emotionally exhausting “true Hollywood” story. It’s everything one could want from such a documentary. <h2>5. Kneecap</h2> Cowriter-director Rich Peppiatt’s Kneecap is a riotous, irreverent biopic following the career of Belfast drug-dealers Móglaí Bap and Mo Chara as they team up with high school music teacher DJ Próvai to become the first Irish-language rap group, Kneecap. The real <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-66408560">Kneecappers</a> cowrote the film and play themselves and, given none of them are actors, do so remarkably well. They’re joined by Irish heavyweights Josie Walker, playing the detective who has it in for them, and Michael Fassbender, playing Móglaí’s father, an old-school Irish radical who has been on the run for the past few decades. The film depicts their hedonistic drug use and anarchic disregard for the law in the context of their radical political motivation to speak Irish against the colonial English. And while it may be a bit cartoonish in its presentation of Belfast’s history and the struggle to keep Gaelic alive, it is a music biopic after all. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FFYfp-hKxZQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></figure> Kneecap is violent, coarse and laced with infectiously good humour – a genuinely fun film, buoyed by its charismatic stars and lively style. Only the most stringent moralist wouldn’t enjoy this one! <h2>Notable mentions</h2> It’s extremely difficult to pick a top five when 15 or so of the films I saw were standouts. And this is testament to the quality of the festival’s selection. It was a pleasure watching heavyweight Sean Penn go head-to-head with Dakota Johnson in writer-director Christy Hall’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daddio_(film)">Daddio</a>, even if the story takes an uninteresting turn in the final third. Despite the banality of the premise – a New York cabbie chats with a passenger – and the inanity of some of the dialogue, this romantic ode to urban life in all its alienated, fluoro-lit techno glory is so well crafted that we happily go along for the ride. Equally affective is the melancholic and beautifully performed <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puan_(film)">Puan</a>, a restrained comedy set in a University faculty in Buenos Aires. Puan could easily make my top five, as could André Téchiné’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/My_New_Friends_(film)">My New Friends</a>), an offbeat French melodrama starring Isabelle Huppert as a disillusioned police officer who becomes friends with an anti-cop activist in the suburbs. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cnz-6h60tkk?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></figure> <h2>Poor performers</h2> Of the lot, I only found three films disappointing. The first, Among the Wolves, is a Belgian-French documentary in which a photographer and illustrator lie waiting in a tiny, makeshift building to encounter wild wolves. While some of the footage is striking, the film is let down by its scientific inaccuracy, such as references to the “alpha male” wolf – a term and concept that has <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/science/elements/the-myth-of-the-alpha-wolf">long been discredited</a>. Such innacuracy is a cardinal sin for a documentary, which is supposed to inform the viewer. Though critically acclaimed, Hollywood horror film The Substance – a story of an ageing entertainer who turns to a mysterious substance to stay young (with unsurprisingly horrific ramifications) – feels neither new nor particularly interesting. And while it’s great to see Demi Moore and Dennis Quaid back on the big screen, their caricaturish characters make the whole thing seem like a boring joke: an inflated short film that is both irritatingly silly and painfully didactic. But rarely does a film so resolutely reaffirm a sense of the absurd hubris of humans as Francis Ford Coppola’s self-financed mega-flop, Megalopolis. This cartoonish, incoherent mess set in a dystopian version of the United States, “New Rome”, is howlingly bad in places. Imagine the worst parts of The Hunger Games and <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0064940/">Fellini Satyricon</a> (1969) crossed with Ayn Rand’s Atlas Shrugged and The Fountainhead and you begin to get a sense of the kind of self-indulgent, heavy-handed nonsense that is Megalopolis. Side-splittingly funny moments come courtesy of bad dialogue (“Utopias become dystopias,” actor Giancarlo Esposito says at one point with a straight face). And stilted acting by Adam Driver and Aubrey Plaza had the (remaining) audience in stitches. Megalopolis is like one of the great fiascos from days gone by – the 21st century’s Heaven’s Gate – and there is definitely something delightful about the existence of this <a href="https://variety.com/2022/film/news/francis-ford-coppola-funding-120-million-dollars-megalopolis-1235184765/">US$120 million</a> (roughly A$180 million) flop. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/1FQzWD5xVKQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></figure> But as a dud, Megalopolis is the outlier. And in a year following Barbie, Oppenheimer, Napoleon and Poor Things (talk about heavy-handed cinema), much of the menu of this year’s Sydney Film Festival once again proves there are still good filmmakers out there making good films.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/232706/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ari-mattes-97857">Ari Mattes</a>, Lecturer in Communications and Media, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-notre-dame-australia-852">University of Notre Dame Australia</a> This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/i-watched-some-40-films-at-this-years-sydney-film-festival-here-are-my-top-five-picks-and-one-hilarious-flop-232706">original article</a>. Image: IMDB </div>

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I watched some 40 films at this year’s Sydney Film Festival. Here are my top five picks – and one hilarious flop

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