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Flying home for Christmas? Carbon offsets are important, but they won’t fix plane pollution

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/susanne-becken-90437">Susanne Becken</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/griffith-university-828">Griffith University</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/brendan-mackey-152282">Brendan Mackey</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/griffith-university-828">Griffith University</a> Australia is an important player in the global tourism business. In 2016, <a href="https://www.tra.gov.au/research/research">8.7 million visitors arrived in Australia and 8.8 million Australians went overseas</a>. A further 33.5 million overnight trips were made domestically. But all this travel comes at a cost. According to the <a href="http://tourismdashboard.org/explore-the-data/carbon-emissions/">Global Sustainable Tourism Dashboard</a>, all Australian domestic trips and one-way international journeys (the other half is attributed to the end point of travel) amount to 15 million tonnes of carbon dioxide for 2016. That is 2.7% of global aviation emissions, despite a population of only 0.3% of the global total. The peak month of air travel in and out of Australia is December. Christmas is the time where people travel to see friends and family, or to go on holiday. More and more people are <a href="http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/analysis-of-a-119-country-survey-predicts-global-climate-change-awareness/">aware of the carbon implications of their travel</a> and want to know whether, for example, they should purchase carbon offsets or not. Our <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969699716302538">recent study in the Journal of Air Transport Management</a> showed that about one third of airlines globally offer some form of carbon offsetting to their customers. However, the research also concluded that the information provided to customers is often insufficient, dated and possibly misleading. Whilst local airlines <a href="https://www.qantasfutureplanet.com.au/#aboutus">Qantas</a>, <a href="https://www.virginaustralia.com/nz/en/about-us/sustainability/carbon-offset-program/">Virgin Australia</a> and <a href="https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/sustainability-customer-carbon-offset">Air New Zealand</a> have relatively advanced and well-articulated carbon offset programs, others fail to offer scientifically robust explanations and accredited mechanisms that ensure that the money spent on an offset generates some real climate benefits. The notion of carbon compensation is actually more difficult than people might think. To help explain why carbon offsetting does make an important climate contribution, but at the same time still adds to atmospheric carbon, we created an <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsh-erzGlR0">animated video clip</a>. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xsh-erzGlR0?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe><figcaption>Jack’s journey.</figcaption></figure> The video features Jack, a concerned business traveller who begins purchasing carbon credits. However, he comes to the realisation that the carbon emissions from his flights are still released into the atmosphere, despite the credit. The concept of “carbon neutral” promoted by airline offsets means that an equal amount of emissions is avoided elsewhere, but it does not mean there is no carbon being emitted at all – just relatively less compared with the scenario of not offsetting (where someone else continues to emit, in addition to the flight). This means that, contrary to many promotional and educational materials (see <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cGB2OAg5ffA">here</a> for instance), carbon offsetting will not reduce overall carbon emissions. Trading emissions means that we are merely maintaining status quo. A steep reduction, however, is what’s required by every sector if we were to reach the net-zero emissions goal by 2050, agreed on in the <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php">Paris Agreement</a>. Carbon offsetting is already an important “<a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261517714000910">polluter pays</a>” mechanism for travellers who wish to contribute to climate mitigation. But it is also about to be institutionalised at large scale through the new UN-run <a href="https://www.icao.int/environmental-protection/Pages/market-based-measures.aspx">Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA)</a>. CORSIA will come into force in 2021, when participating airlines will have to purchase carbon credits for emissions above 2020 levels on certain routes. The availability of carbon credits and their integrity is of major concern, as well as how they align with national obligations and mechanisms agreed in the Paris Agreement. Of particular interest is <a href="http://www.carbon-mechanisms.de/en/introduction/the-paris-agreement-and-article-6/">Article 6</a>, which allows countries to cooperate in meeting their climate commitments, including by “trading” emissions reductions to count towards a national target. The recent COP23 in Bonn highlighted that CORSIA is widely seen as a potential source of billions of dollars for offset schemes, supporting important climate action. Air travel may provide an important intermediate source of funds, but ultimately the aviation sector, just like anyone else, will have to reduce their own emissions. This will mean major advances in technology – and most likely a contraction in the fast expanding global aviation market. <h2>Travelling right this Christmas</h2> In the meantime, and if you have booked your flights for Christmas travel, you can do the following: <ul> <li> pack light (every kilogram will cost additional fuel) </li> <li> minimise carbon emissions whilst on holiday (for instance by biking or walking once you’re there), and </li> <li> support a <a href="http://www.co2offsetresearch.org/consumer/Standards.html">credible offsetting program</a>. </li> </ul> And it’s worth thinking about what else you can do during the year to minimise emissions – this is your own “carbon budget”.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89148/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/susanne-becken-90437">Susanne Becken</a>, Professor of Sustainable Tourism and Director, Griffith Institute for Tourism, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/griffith-university-828">Griffith University</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/brendan-mackey-152282">Brendan Mackey</a>, Director of the Griffith Climate Change Response Program, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/griffith-university-828">Griffith University</a> Image credits: Getty Images This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/flying-home-for-christmas-carbon-offsets-are-important-but-they-wont-fix-plane-pollution-89148">original article</a>.

Travel Trouble

How air travellers can cut their door-to-door emissions right now – by as much as 13% on the Sydney-Melbourne route

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rico-merkert-90253">Rico Merkert</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841">University of Sydney</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/david-li-1460445">David Li</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841">University of Sydney</a> Our climate is changing, and airlines are under pressure to reduce emissions from air travel. For many of us, especially in Australia, flying is an essential form of transport, so how can we reduce its environmental impact? Getting to and from the airport is an overlooked aspect of air travel that offers an immediate way to cut total carbon emissions from the trip by a surprisingly large amount. Our newly published <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920923002468">research</a> shows for an average economy passenger flying from Sydney to Melbourne, the carbon emissions from using a fossil-fuelled car to get to and from the airports make up a staggering 13.5% of the total door-to-door emissions. At a global scale, this number reaches 12.1% for long-haul flights and up to 22.8% for short-haul air journeys. For comparison, in the International Air Transport Association’s <a href="https://www.iata.org/en/programs/environment/roadmaps/">2050 net-zero emission roadmap</a>, 13% of global airline decarbonisation will come from electric and hydrogen propulsion. A further 65% is to come from mass adoption of sustainable aviation fuel. This is fuel produced from non-petroleum-based renewable sources such as some municipal solid waste, woody biomass, fats, greases and oils. Each of these big lifters requires a mammoth level of investment and technological breakthroughs, and comes with limitations and risks. Some solutions might make air travel prohibitively expensive. Airlines are moving mountains to decarbonise, but there are increasing concerns their net-zero plans might not stack up. In contrast, a 13.5% emission reduction on a Sydney-Melbourne door-to-door journey today may sound like a dream. Yet our research shows it’s easily achievable if travellers can be persuaded to change how they get to and from the airport. <h2>So how can travellers be convinced to switch?</h2> <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/agricultural-and-resource-economics-review/article/future-of-carbon-labeling-factors-to-consider/FDBC62244F2ACA29A7602886085B4A91">Research</a> has shown carbon “labelling” helps shift consumer behaviour towards greener choices. It’s a bit like how the nutrition label on the back of our cereal box helps us choose healthier options. For instance, when searching for a flight on online travel platform Skyscanner, all flight options are displayed with carbon emissions, so consumers can make a more informed choice. Two <a href="https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5n53672m">recent</a> <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/03611981211046924">studies</a> at the University of California, Davis, suggest showing consumers the emission outcomes of different gate-to-gate flight choices, such as aircraft types and transit stops, can prompt them to choose greener flights, reducing emissions by up to 3.8%. But air journeys don’t start or end at airports. They start at home and end at destinations, or vice versa. Our air-travel carbon emissions are divided into ground and air segments and counted as airport and airline emissions respectively. While airlines focus on gate-to-gate decarbonisation through future technologies, the door-to-door emissions produced by travel to and from airports can be reduced immediately. Let’s look at an example of a Sydney-to-Melbourne trip. Say you travel from North Sydney to Sydney Airport by car, then fly to Melbourne Airport and catch a taxi to the city centre. That trip emits 82 kilograms of CO₂ door-to-door. But if you use a train, bus or electric vehicle (charged from a renewable source) to travel to and from the airport, the emissions from your trip drop to 71kg: a 13.5% fall door-to-door. Although travel platforms are increasingly communicating gate-to-gate emissions to consumers, we’re not aware of any that are including door-to-door emissions. Helping climate-conscious consumers understand the door-to-door carbon impact of airport ground connections could drive them to choose greener options such as public transport and electric vehicles. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541364/original/file-20230807-15-mp3dlr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541364/original/file-20230807-15-mp3dlr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541364/original/file-20230807-15-mp3dlr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541364/original/file-20230807-15-mp3dlr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541364/original/file-20230807-15-mp3dlr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541364/original/file-20230807-15-mp3dlr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541364/original/file-20230807-15-mp3dlr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541364/original/file-20230807-15-mp3dlr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Google Flights chart of air travel options showing emissions and cost" /></a><figcaption>Travel aggregator search platforms are now labelling carbon emissions when offering flight options. Google Flights</figcaption></figure> <h2>Give airlines an incentive to inform passengers</h2> Governments and airports have long collaborated in driving consumers towards greener ground transit options. For instance, Transport for NSW has set a 50% emission-reduction <a href="https://www.future.transport.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2022-09/Future_Transport_Strategy_2.pdf">target</a> for 2030. However, consumer adoption of these options has remained low. <a href="https://www.ttf.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/TTF_Accessing_Sydney_Airport.pdf">Most airport trips</a> in Australia today are still made by conventional car. As consumers, we have relationships with airlines that we don’t have with airports. When it comes to flying, we choose our airline carefully. Yet we rarely think about how we get to the airport. Airlines are experts in customer communication and engagement. They operate some of the largest frequent-flyer programs in the world. Last time we checked, Qantas had <a href="https://www.finder.com.au/frequent-flyer/qantas">15 million</a> program members and Virgin had <a href="https://newsroom.virginaustralia.com/release/velocity-frequent-flyer-soars-11-million-members">11 million</a>. Through these channels, airlines learn about us and how we tick when it comes to making flying choices. This puts them in an ideal position to keep us informed about door-to-door travel and drive the transition towards greener airport ground-connection options. To give them an incentive to do so, their efforts should be recognised through emission accounting. <h2>A cost-effective way to cut emissions</h2> Travellers using the Sydney Airport train station must pay an <a href="https://www.opal.com.au/en/opal-fares/airport_station_access_fee/">access fee</a>, which adds <a href="https://airportlink.com.au/trip-information/price/">A$15.74</a> to the cost of the journey. As our <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920923002468">paper</a> highlights, the average customer using the airport train removes 2.7kg of CO₂. Achieving the same amount of decarbonisation during the flight using more sustainable aviation fuel – which is more expensive – would cost the customer about the same: between $10 and $16. So there is an opportunity for airlines to highlight this decarbonisation outcome as a way to persuade travellers to reconsider driving a car or catching a taxi, and instead take the airport train or bus. Airlines could also consider collaborating with airports to build airport charging facilities for electric vehicles as uptake in Australia approaches a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jul/31/australian-electric-vehicles-ev-sales-rise-increase">double-digit share</a> of new vehicle sales. This overlooked opportunity to cut door-to-door emissions from air travel has a substantial upside. It deserves far more attention from airlines, airports and consumers.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211099/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rico-merkert-90253">Rico Merkert</a>, Professor in Transport and Supply Chain Management and Deputy Director, Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies (ITLS), University of Sydney Business School, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841">University of Sydney</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/david-li-1460445">David Li</a>, PhD Candidate, Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841">University of Sydney</a> Image credits: Getty Images This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-air-travellers-can-cut-their-door-to-door-emissions-right-now-by-as-much-as-13-on-the-sydney-melbourne-route-211099">original article</a>.

Domestic Travel

Too big, too heavy and too slow to change: road transport is way off track for net zero

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/robin-smit-594126">Robin Smit</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-technology-sydney-936">University of Technology Sydney</a> The need to cut the emissions driving climate change is urgent, but it’s proving hard to decarbonise road transport in Australia. Its share of the nation’s total greenhouse gas emissions <a href="https://ageis.climatechange.gov.au/">doubled</a> from 8% in 1990 to 16% in 2020. New vehicles sold in Australia have <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-thought-australian-cars-were-using-less-fuel-new-research-shows-we-were-wrong-122378">barely improved</a> average emissions performance for the last decade or so. The federal government <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/australias-emissions-projections-2022">publishes</a> emission forecasts to 2035 – 15 years short of 2050, the net-zero target date. Our <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_7a6920bdd9e8448385863a7c23ec9ecf.pdf">newly published study</a> forecasts road transport emissions through to 2050. The estimated reduction by 2050, 35–45% of pre-COVID levels in 2019, falls well short of what’s needed. Our findings highlight three obstacles to achieving net zero. These are: Australia’s delay in switching to electric vehicles; growing sales of large, heavy vehicles such as SUVs and utes; and uncertainties about hydrogen as a fuel, especially for freight transport. These findings point to policy actions that could get road transport much closer to net zero. <h2>How was this worked out?</h2> Emissions and energy use vary from vehicle to vehicle, so reliable forecasting requires a detailed breakdown of the on-road fleet. Our study <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/software">used</a> the Australian Fleet Model and the net zero vehicle emission model (n0vem). The study focused on so-called <a href="https://www.cummins.com/news/2022/05/26/well-wheel-emissions-simplified">well-to-wheel emissions</a> from fuel production, distribution and use while driving. These activities account for about 75–85% of vehicle emissions. (<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-friendly-is-an-electric-car-it-all-comes-down-to-where-you-live-179003">Life-cycle assessment</a> estimates “cradle-to-grave” emissions, including vehicle manufacture and disposal.) Working with European Union colleagues, our emissions simulation drew on an updated <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_7a6920bdd9e8448385863a7c23ec9ecf.pdf">EU scenario</a> (EU-27) showing the changes in the EU vehicle fleet needed to meet the latest (proposed) CO₂ targets. Our study assumed Australia will be ten years behind the EU across all vehicle classes. We further modified the scenario to properly reflect Australian conditions. For instance, the EU has a much higher proportion of plug-in hybrid vehicles than Australia, where buyers are now bypassing them for wholly electric vehicles. <h2>Energy use is shifting, but too slowly</h2> Using this modified scenario, the simulation produces a forecast fall in total wheel-to-wheel emissions from Australian transport from 104 billion tonnes (Mt) in 2018 to 55-65Mt in 2050. Within the range of this 35–45% reduction, the outcome depends largely on the balance of renewable and fossil-fuel energy used to produce hydrogen. The modelling nonetheless predicts a large shift in energy use in road transport in 2050, as 2019 was basically 100% fossil fuels. The on-road energy efficiency of battery electric vehicles is roughly twice that of fuel cell electric (hydrogen) vehicles and roughly three times that of fossil-fuelled vehicles of similar type. The modelling results make this clear. In 2050, battery electric vehicles account for about 70% of total travel, but 25% of on-road energy use and only about 10% of total emissions. In contrast, fossil-fuelled vehicles account for about 25% of total travel in 2050, 60% of energy use and 75-85% of emissions. That’s even allowing for expected efficiency improvements. This means the shift to a mostly electric fleet by 2050 plus the use of hydrogen is predicted to fall short of what’s needed to get to net zero. It will require aggressive new policies to increase the uptake of electric vehicles across all classes. <h2>Lighter vehicles make a big difference</h2> But that is not the whole story. One neglected issue is the growing proportion of <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-may-be-underestimating-just-how-bad-carbon-belching-suvs-are-for-the-climate-and-for-our-health-190743">big, heavy passenger vehicles</a> (SUVs, utes). This trend is very noticeable in Australia. The laws of physics mean heavier vehicles need much more energy and fuel per kilometre of driving, and so produce more emissions. Currently, a large diesel SUV typically emits a kilogram of CO₂ for every 3 kilometres of driving, compared to 15km for a light electric vehicle and 200 kilometres for an e-bike. An average electric vehicle currently emits 1kg of CO₂ every 7km. This distance is expected to be around 60km in 2050, when renewables power the electricity grid. A lightweight electric car will more than double the distance to 125km per kilogram of CO₂. Reducing vehicle weights and optimising energy efficiency in transport will be essential to meet emission targets. The study modelled the impacts of <a href="https://www.automotiveworld.com/special-reports/vehicle-lightweighting-2/">lightweighting</a> passenger vehicles while keeping buses and commercial vehicles the same. If Australians had driven only small cars in 2019 for personal use, total road transport emissions would have been about 15% lower. The reduction in emissions from simply shifting to smaller cars is <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/national-greenhouse-accounts-2019/national-inventory-report-2019">similar to</a> emissions from domestic aviation and domestic shipping combined. Importantly, lightweighting cuts emissions for all kinds of vehicles. <h2>The uncertainties about hydrogen</h2> Fuel cell electric vehicles using hydrogen account for only a few percent of all travel, but most will likely be large trucks. As a result, in our scenarios, they use a little over 10% of total on-road energy and produce 5-20% of total emissions, depending on the energy source used for hydrogen production and distribution. The modified EU scenario includes a significant uptake of hydrogen vehicles by 2050. That’s by no means guaranteed. The uptake in Australia has been negligible to date. That’s due to costs (vehicle and fuel), the need for new hydrogen fuel infrastructure, less mature technology (compared to battery electric vehicles) and limited vehicle availability. <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-must-rapidly-decarbonise-transport-but-hydrogens-not-the-answer-166830">Unresolved aspects</a> of hydrogen in transport include lower energy efficiency, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-australia-to-lead-the-way-on-green-hydrogen-first-we-must-find-enough-water-196144">need for clean water</a>, uncertainty about leakage, fuel-cell durability and value for consumers. <h2>How do we get back on track?</h2> Our study suggests Australia is on track to miss the net-zero target for 2050 mainly because of the large proportions of fossil-fuelled vehicles and large and heavy passenger vehicles. These two aspects could become targets for new policies such as public information campaigns, tax incentives for small, light vehicles, bans on selling fossil fuel vehicles and programs to scrap them. Other options to cut emissions include measures to reduce travel demand, optimise freight logistics and shift travel to public transport, to name a few. The study confirms the scale of the challenge of decarbonising road transport. Australia will need “all hands on deck” – government, industry and consumers – to achieve net zero in 2050.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208655/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/robin-smit-594126">Robin Smit</a>, Adjunct Associate Professor, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-technology-sydney-936">University of Technology Sydney</a> Image credits: Getty Images This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/too-big-too-heavy-and-too-slow-to-change-road-transport-is-way-off-track-for-net-zero-208655">original article</a>.

Travel Trouble

Astonishing report identifies Covid’s alleged “patient zero”

A bombshell report has claimed the infamous Covid-19 "patient zero” was a Wuhan scientist carrying out experiments on souped-up coronaviruses. The scientist in question, Ben Hu, was conducting risky tests at the Wuhan Institute of Virology with two colleagues, Ping You and Yan Zhu, the report states. It is understood that all three suffered Covid-like symptoms and required hospital care weeks before China broke the news of the virus outbreak to the rest of the world. The Sun reported that the name of “patient zero" has never been disclosed until now. Many US government officials have now identified the three scientists in a shocking report by journalists Michael Shellenberger and Matt Taibbi. Writing in the Substack newsletter Public, the pair alleged the scientists were experimenting with coronaviruses when they fell ill in 2019. Several experts and intelligence officials have long suspected scientists at the lab accidentally spread the virus during so-called “gain of function” experiments on bat coronaviruses. The naming of “patient zero” could prove to be the smoking gun, only adding to mounting circumstantial evidence of a lab leak. It is unclear who in the US government had the intelligence about the sick lab workers, how long they had it, and why it was not shared with the public. The Australian journalist and Sky News host Sharri Markson spoke to The Sun about the lab leak theory in 2021 and dubbed it an “explosive development”. Jamie Metzl, a former member of the World Health Organisation advisory committee on human genome editing, described it as a possible “game changer”. “It’s a game changer if it can be proven that Hu got sick with Covid before anyone else,” he said. “That would be the ‘smoking gun’. Hu was the lead hands-on researcher in (virologist Shi Zhengli’s) lab.” DRASTIC, an international team of scientists and sleuths attempting to piece together Covid-19’s origins, researched the three scientists in 2021. The Wuhan Institute of Virology’s website lists Hu’s biography showing he was working as an assistant researcher. He was said to be the “star pupil” of virologist Shi Zhengli — the virologist at the lab who became known as “batwoman” for her research on bat coronaviruses. Markson, the author of What Really Happened in Wuhan, said that Hu was running a state-funded project in 2019 to test if new coronaviruses could infect humans. The study involved souping up the viruses and experimenting with them on humanised mice. However, the results were never published and the study’s existence was erased from the internet as Covid-19 was spreading around the globe, which raised suspicion of a possible lab leak. A source told The Sun that footage from 2017 that was aired by Chinese state-run TV showed Hu working in the lab without protective gear. The same video shows scientists from the Wuhan lab searching for bat viruses with inadequate protective gear. Alina Chan, a molecular biologist at MIT and Harvard, told Public, “Ben Hu is essentially the next Shi Zhengli. “He was her star pupil. He had been making chimeric SARS-like viruses and testing these in humanised mice. “If I had to guess who would be doing this risky virus research and most at risk of getting accidentally infected, it would be him.” She noted, “If this info had been made public in May of 2020, I doubt that many in the scientific community and the media would have spent the last three years raving about a raccoon dog or pangolin in a wet market.” US scientist Dr Steven Quay, “He was always my first choice for one of the infected Wuhan Institute of Virology workers but it seemed too simple.” A bill signed by US President Joe Biden in 2023 called for the release of the names of the sick scientists, their symptoms, and whether they had been involved with or exposed to coronavirus research. The US is currently preparing to release previously classified material, which could include the names of the three Wuhan scientists. Earlier in 2023, FBI director Christopher Wray said, “the FBI has for quite some time now assessed that the origins of the pandemic are most likely a potential lab incident in Wuhan”. China has long been accused of attempting to cover up or distort its involvement with Covid-19, but they continue to deny claims. In March 2023, China’s former government scientist confessed the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn’t be ruled out, sparking uproar in Beijing. Professor George Gao, the former chief of China’s Centre for Disease Control, played a key role in the efforts to trace the origins of Covid-19, insisting scientists should “suspect anything”. Speaking to the BBC Radio 4 podcast Fever: The Hunt for Covid’s Origin, Professor Gao said, “You can always suspect anything. That’s science. “Don’t rule out anything.” Professor Gao retired from the CDC in 2022 after playing a key role in the pandemic response and efforts to find the mysterious origin of the virus. He would have had access to highly classified government information on the outbreak of Covid-19. According to Professor Gao, a formal investigation into the Wuhan Institute of Virology was carried out by a government department. The government scientist claimed the “lab was double-checked by the experts in the field”. Investigators believe scientists were working with the Chinese military to develop a mutant virus and pursue bioweapons just as the pandemic began. The findings followed a team of US investigators who combed through top-secret intercepted communications and research. In 2016, researchers discovered a new fatal type of coronavirus in a mineshaft in Mojiang, Yunnan province. However, they kept it under wraps, with the sample then transported to the Wuhan lab and dubbed as classified work. The virus is the only known immediate relative of Covid-19 known to exist prior to the pandemic. Speaking to The Times, one US investigator said, “The trail of papers starts to go dark. “That’s exactly when the classified program kicked off. “My view is that the reason it was covered up was due to military secrecy related to the army’s pursuit of dual-use capabilities in virological biological weapons and vaccines.” The findings came after a scientist who worked closely with the Wuhan lab claimed the virus was genetically engineered and leaked from the facility. Image credit: Getty

Body

Movies that received zero stars

There are good movies, so-so movies and bad movies. Is there anything worse, though, than a bad movie? Yes, there is. And I have seen my share. For decades, Newsday has used a four-star rating system for its film reviews. When I became the paper's movie critic in 2008, I had to figure out how to approach this system. Obviously, it's rare to see a four-star movie – even if it's not Citizen Kane, it has to be something truly outstanding. Three stars signals a wholehearted recommendation, though not exactly a masterpiece. Many movies fall into the two-and-a-half-star range: They're just meh. Tougher to call is the one-star or half-star movie – how do you decide between a D grade and a D-minus? Then there's the nuclear option: zero stars. What makes a movie so awful that it deserves zero stars? Like the four-star movie, this is a rare breed. This is a movie whose redeeming qualities are either infinitesimal or non-existent. It's a movie that fails so spectacularly it doesn't get credit for decent lighting or being in focus. A zero-star movie doesn't even get credit for existing. Every zero-star movie is unique in its own way, but over the years I've noticed that the worst of the worst tend to fall into a few different categories. Here are four examples. Vanity projects It's easy to poke fun at A-list stars and their outsize egos, but they often bring it upon themselves. Remember when John Travolta thought that Battlefield Earth would turn us all into Scientologists? Or when Mariah Carey played a version of herself in Glitter? Remember almost every movie Madonna ever made? For sheer self-centredness, though, nothing beats last year's By the Sea, written and directed by Angelina Jolie-Pitt and starring herself and her husband, Brad. (They produced it as well.) They play an American writer and his wife who stay in a beachside French hotel during the 1970s. He's depressed, she's depressed, they never have sex. With little dialogue and even less action, the movie mostly features the two stars standing around in chic outfits, smoking cigarettes and gazing with despair upon million-dollar views of the coast. Kinder critics praised the cinematography and scenery, but I couldn't find a reason to give this extended Chanel No. 5 commercial even a half-star. I figured the two actors got enough gratification just admiring themselves on screen for two hours. Insults to intelligence Filmmakers often assume their audiences will swallow just about anything. In the sci-fi failure Transcendence, Johnny Depp uploaded his consciousness into the cloud – a literal one, in the sky. (I gave that movie a half-star for sheer nuttiness.) In the zero-star fantasy Jupiter Ascending, the Wachowskis told the story of a housemaid (Mila Kunis) who sells her eggs to buy a telescope but discovers she's a princess. These movies took years to make, yet we spotted their idiocy within minutes. Then there's Aloha, Cameron Crowe's zero-star comedy-drama from 2015. Among its many terrible ideas were casting Emma Stone as a native Hawaiian (as if nobody would notice?), hoping we'd swoon when Bradley Cooper says cheesy things like "Would you stop getting more beautiful?" and creating a baffling climax in which an orbiting space object is destroyed by rock music. Filmmakers tend to be smart people, but moviegoers are no dopes, either. Aloha made just US$26.3 million on its US$37 million budget, one of the year's major flops. Lapses in taste Taste is subjective, of course, but some movies cross a line just to cross it. Adam Sandler's zero-star comedy That's My Boy (2012), whose plot hinged on statutory rape and incest, marked a new low – until Peter Farrelly reset the bar with Movie 43. An anthology comedy spearheaded by Farrelly with several directors and writers, Movie 43 (2013) rounds up more than a dozen A-list stars in an orgy of nastiness and vulgarity. Among the more hideous highlights are Chris Pratt and his real-life wife, Anna Faris, as lovers with a scatological fetish; Richard Gere as the CEO of a product that hacks off its customers' penises; and Chloe Grace Moretz as a teenager getting her period. "Once you see it, you can't unsee it," the trailers promised. As for the cast, they probably wish they could un-be in it. Sheer ineptitude Finally, some movies are so badly made that they barely qualify as movies. Left Behind, for instance, a faith-based rapture-fantasy starring Nicolas Cage, was so sloppy and disorganised that it literally couldn't keep track of night and day. At least that film was made by relative amateurs. The Last Airbender (2010), a fantasy-adventure based on the Nickelodeon series, was directed by M Night Shyamalan, the maestro who gave us The Sixth Sense. Here, Shyamalan completely loses his ability to coherently tell the story of Aang (Noah Ringer), a boy with mystical powers trying to unite four tribes. The dialogue is so crammed with fictional exposition that the actors sound like they're reading a Pokemon manual, while the choppy editing seemed almost random. Not even the special effects deserved a half-star: The postproduction 3-D made the whole movie look as flat as a View-Master slide. With its US$150 million budget, The Last Airbender was an inexcusable, zero-star disaster. As a last note, a truly terrible movie is just as exceptional as a truly great one, and in some ways just as fascinating. It's my job, though, to sit through them so you don't have to. You're welcome. THE WORST OF THE WORST 10. All About Steve (2009) There's a reason you've never heard of this romantic comedy starring A-listers Sandra Bullock and Bradley Cooper: It's because she plays an irritating crossword fanatic and he plays an uninteresting person. In terms of on-screen chemistry, they're the equivalent of bleach and ammonia. 9. Moms' Night Out (2014) This botched comedy (starring Trace Adkins and Patricia Heaton) stands out for many things, but one is a technical reason: The filmmakers somehow managed to capture the weirdest, ugliest facial expression on nearly every actor in nearly every scene. It's like a 90-minute flip-book of ruined family photos. 8. Jem and The Holograms (2015) Aubrey Peeples plays an aspiring singer who is shocked – shocked! – to discover that global stardom requires personal and artistic sacrifice. File this movie's profound message under Things a 9-Year-Old Could Have Told You. 7. Remember Me (2010) In this saccharine yet creepy romance, Robert Pattinson plays a young, moody guy – no stretch there – who sleeps with a woman to get revenge on her father. Aww, how cute! The plot also hinges on the World Trade Centre attacks. Double cute! 6. Jupiter Ascending (2015) This sci-fi fantasy from the Wachowskis (The Matrix) defies description, but here's an attempt: A humble house-cleaner (Mila Kunis) discovers she's a galactic princess thanks to a part-wolf warrior (Channing Tatum). It's a statistical marvel whose 127 minutes include not a single good idea. 5. Rock The Kasbah (2015) A washed-up rock manager (Bill Murray) decides to make a pop star out of an Afghan singer (Leem Lubany). Magically, she reverses centuries of religious and cultural stigmas by performing the songs of Cat Stevens, now known as Yusuf Islam. Possibly the most misguided comedy ever made. 4. Aloha (2015) Cameron Crowe's cloying romance stars Bradley Cooper as an ex-military man trying to bed a happily married woman (gross!) while flirting with a native Hawaiian (played by Emma Stone?) and trying to stop an outer-space missile (say what?). The movie is so wide of the mark that you can't even tell where it was aiming. 3. Movie 43 (2013) Richard Gere, Halle Berry, Kate Winslet, Hugh Jackman and many other talented people run through the most repulsive, unimaginative and unfunny skits ever filmed. The whole thing almost literally stinks. Movie 43 currently holds a difficult-to-attain 4 per cent rating on RottenTomatoes.com. 2. The Last Airbender (2010) M Night Shyamalan's fantasy-adventure is so disjointed and disorganised that you might think the reels got mixed up – possibly with a whole other movie. You could watch it 10 times and still not understand a thing, though by then you'd have gone permanently insane. 1. By The Sea (2015) Think back to the most pretentious European art-film you've ever had to endure. Now imagine Angelina Jolie making that movie, and you've got By the Sea, starring herself and Brad Pitt as depressed Americans who visit France and smoke a lot. Remember how Jean-Paul Sartre said hell is other people? That's because he hadn't seen this movie. Written by Rafer Guzman. First appeared on <a href="http://Stuff.co.nz" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Stuff.co.nz</a>. Images: Columbia Pictures

Movies

Southampton to Shanghai by train – one climate change researcher’s quest to avoid flying

Academics travel a lot. Whether for fieldwork or conferences, we’re often <a href="https://theconversation.com/university-sector-must-tackle-air-travel-emissions-118929">encouraged</a> to do it. Often internationally, invariably by aeroplane. But while globetrotting might make us feel important, a recent <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652619311862">study</a> suggests there’s no connection between academic air-miles and career advancement. With the obvious realities of the climate crisis, and with air travel being the <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-time-to-wake-up-to-the-devastating-impact-flying-has-on-the-environment-70953">single quickest</a> way an average person can contribute to climate change, some academics are trying to stay on the ground whenever possible. Within a broader <a href="https://www.flightfree.co.uk/">campaign</a> to encourage people to go “flight-free”, there’s a community of <a href="https://academicflyingblog.wordpress.com/">academics</a> challenging the reliance on flying that’s typically sat uneasily at the heart of their careers. I’m a member of that community. I pledged not to fly in 2019 and 2020, and then won a fellowship to study Chinese attitudes to sustainability which required me to go to China for fieldwork. Suddenly, the consequences of my pledge became very real. <figure class="align-center "><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285327/original/file-20190723-110154-1grcjbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285327/original/file-20190723-110154-1grcjbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285327/original/file-20190723-110154-1grcjbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285327/original/file-20190723-110154-1grcjbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285327/original/file-20190723-110154-1grcjbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285327/original/file-20190723-110154-1grcjbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285327/original/file-20190723-110154-1grcjbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="" /><figcaption>Not only do planes release a lot of CO₂ during flight, the white ‘contrails’ they leave behind warm the atmosphere further. <a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/passenger-airplanes-on-air-busy-traffic-1089042554?src=lgi_phsJCpzeLwXItWfMbw-1-17&studio=1">FotoHelin/Shutterstock</a></figcaption></figure> Life on the rails When I told my managers that I intended to get to China by train, I was met with a mixture of responses. Some thought I was mad, some admired my principles, some thought I was an awkward bugger. Maybe they were all right. In any case, what I was doing had certainly created more work for myself. I began trying to convince senior staff to release funds from my research budget to arrange visas, and thinking through the nitty-gritty of a trip across Europe, Russia and a big chunk of China itself. The cost of the trains was over £2,000, dwarfing the £700 I could pay for a London to Beijing return flight. Time-wise, the train trip took just under two weeks each way. But in terms of carbon emissions my trip was a steal, contributing <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/greenhouse-gas-reporting-conversion-factors-2019">just 10%</a> of the emissions of the equivalent flights. The cost, complexity and discomfort of such a long solo trip did occasionally make me wonder if it wouldn’t just be easier to fly (answer: it would). But I was determined to honour my pledge and show other academics – by my own extreme example – that it is possible to do international work without flights. <figure class="align-center "><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285316/original/file-20190723-110175-szuvp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285316/original/file-20190723-110175-szuvp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285316/original/file-20190723-110175-szuvp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285316/original/file-20190723-110175-szuvp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285316/original/file-20190723-110175-szuvp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285316/original/file-20190723-110175-szuvp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285316/original/file-20190723-110175-szuvp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="" /><figcaption>The author meets a train guard in Siberia. Roger Tyers, Author provided</figcaption></figure> Considering it involved 21 train connections, my journey went surprisingly smoothly. I took a series of “short” trips from Southampton, changing in London, Brussels, Cologne, Berlin and then onto my first sleeper train from Warsaw to Kiev (avoiding Belarus which would have required another visa). My first experience on the Kiev-bound, Soviet-style sleeper train was something of a shock. Unsure of the etiquette when sharing a tiny cabin with two or three others with limited English, I soon learned that body language, Google translate and sharing food breaks the ice. Luckily, my no-flying trip was a recurring source of conversation, fascination and bafflement for many of my fellow travellers. After one night in Kiev, I took another overnight train to Moscow. Russia was something of a test – on my return journey I travelled 2,600 miles between Irkutsk and Moscow, spending 90 hours on a single train. Had this not been a work trip, I would have gladly stopped more often. Making friends with fellow passengers – mainly Russians on work trips or family visits, or European and Chinese tourists doing the bucket list Trans-Siberian route – certainly helped pass the time. The Siberian scenery – millions of trees on a seemingly endless loop – became somewhat repetitive, but the monotony afforded me time to read, write, plan and contemplate. The most spectacular journey was the Trans-Mongolian section, passing the edge of Lake Baikal, the world’s largest lake rimmed with snow-capped mountains, over the green steppes of northern Mongolia, across the Gobi desert, and finally through the mountainous valleys encircling Beijing. It’s hard not to be awed and inspired that these train lines exist in such remote parts of our planet. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285302/original/file-20190723-110154-qqgn2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1003%2C1003&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285302/original/file-20190723-110154-qqgn2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1003%2C1003&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285302/original/file-20190723-110154-qqgn2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285302/original/file-20190723-110154-qqgn2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285302/original/file-20190723-110154-qqgn2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285302/original/file-20190723-110154-qqgn2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285302/original/file-20190723-110154-qqgn2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285302/original/file-20190723-110154-qqgn2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="" /></a><figcaption>The track stretches for miles across the Mongolian plains. Roger Tyers, Author provided</figcaption></figure> Calling at Beijing China now has more high-speed railways than the rest of the world combined, and they do it in style. Beijing to Shanghai, a trip covering 1,300km, takes less than four and a half hours, with a solid internet connection throughout and the most legroom I enjoyed on any of my trips. The downer is that China’s electrified trains will, <a href="https://theconversation.com/china-wrestles-with-insecure-gas-supplies-but-stays-strong-on-longer-term-plan-for-renewables-117445">like most of their electricity</a>, be powered by coal. But on the upside, these trains are likely to take passengers off domestic flights – a lesson for Europe and the US. I enjoyed using them to visit my other field sites in Hangzhou and Ningbo before finally retracing my steps back, over 6,000 miles to the UK, clutching a load of new data, a heap of memories, and a sore back. The focus group data I collected in China, with members of their urban middle classes, has enforced my view that both ‘bottom-up’ social and cultural pressure, as well as “top-down” infrastructure and fiscal policy will be required in any country facing up the complex challenges of climate change. <figure class="align-center "><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285360/original/file-20190723-110162-1jhj505.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285360/original/file-20190723-110162-1jhj505.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285360/original/file-20190723-110162-1jhj505.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285360/original/file-20190723-110162-1jhj505.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285360/original/file-20190723-110162-1jhj505.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285360/original/file-20190723-110162-1jhj505.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285360/original/file-20190723-110162-1jhj505.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="" /><figcaption>The author at the end of his outward journey in Tiananmen Square. Roger Tyers, Author provided</figcaption></figure> I admit that my story is somewhat privileged – not everyone can take the train to China for work, and I doubt I’ll make a habit of it. Much depends on geography too. The UK is relatively well connected by surface transport options like rail, but many still fly - the UK has the <a href="https://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Pages/2018-10-24-02.aspx">third largest</a> air passenger market, behind only the US and China. The bigger policy goal is to make train tickets less expensive relative to flights. In the meantime, academics can play a leadership role, both individually and <a href="https://theconversation.com/researchers-set-an-example-fly-less-111046">institutionally</a>. Universities could consider publishing records of staff flights, building low-carbon travel modes into grant proposals by default, and making videoconferencing facilities fantastic. Recent <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652619311862">research</a> has shown, unsurprisingly, that climate researchers are taken more seriously if they practise what they preach. If we can lead by example in reducing our own flying carbon footprints while still conducting great research, then others – students, policymakers and other professionals – are far more likely to take notice. Writen by Roger Tyers. Republished with permission from <a href="https://theconversation.com/southampton-to-shanghai-by-train-one-climate-change-researchers-quest-to-avoid-flying-120015" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>. Image: Getty Images

International Travel

Building and construction emissions and energy use reaches record levels

Despite improvements in energy efficiency, greenhouse pollution levels from the building and construction sector reached an all-time high in 2021. A new report on the building and construction sector by the United Nations Environment Programme released for COP27 found energy demand in buildings – for heating, cooling, lighting and equipment – increased by 4% from 2020 levels. As a result, the sector’s emissions increased 5% compared to 2020. While the increase partly reflects a re-bound in building and construction activities after the pandemic, energy and emissions levels were also above 2019 levels. This is significant because the sector accounts for around a third of total energy demand, the report says. The UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres told the opening forum of COP27 that the future of the planet is in our hands. “…and the clock is ticking. We are in the fight of our lives. And we are losing. Greenhouse gas emissions keep growing. Global temperatures keep rising. And our planet is fast approaching tipping points that will make climate chaos irreversible. “We are on a highway to climate hell with our foot still on the accelerator. “ With the release of the report, UNEP executive director, Inger Andersen added: “If we do not rapidly cut emissions in line with the Paris Agreement, we will be in deeper trouble.” The UNEP report argues investments in energy efficiency must be sustained in the face of growing crises – such as the war in Ukraine and rising energy and living costs – to help with reducing energy demand, avoiding greenhouse gas pollution and reducing energy cost volatility. “The solution may lie in governments directing relief towards low and zero-carbon building investment activities through financial and non-financial incentives,” Andersen says. Also critical to reducing the sector’s emissions are including buildings in climate pledges under the Paris Agreement – known as Nationally Determined Contributions – and mandatory building energy codes. The report’s recommendations include: building coalitions of stakeholders in support of sustainable buildings, governments introducing mandatory building energy codes and government policies, increasing investment in energy efficiency and commitments from industry.  <img id="cosmos-post-tracker" style="opacity: 0; height: 1px!important; width: 1px!important; border: 0!important; position: absolute!important; z-index: -1!important;" src="https://syndication.cosmosmagazine.com/?id=222598&title=Building+and+construction+emissions+and+energy+use+reaches+record+levels" width="1" height="1" />  <div id="contributors"> <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/building-emissions-reach-record-levels/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">This article</a> was originally published on Cosmos Magazine and was written by Petra Stock. Image: Getty Images </div>

Real Estate

Body language expert zeroes in on PM's meeting with Xi Jinping

Anthony Albanese and Xi Jingping have shared in a historic handshake on the sidelines of the G20 summit, bringing an end to a six-year diplomatic freeze. The PM met with the Chinese President at the event in Bali on Tuesday, as a body language expert has dissected their meeting, pointing out some hard-to-spot details. Body language expert Katia Loisel has revealed the way the leaders shook hands held secrets about their power dynamic. “The way you shake hands reveals important information about your personality, levels of confidence and the power dynamic between two people and can dramatically influence how others perceive and interact with you,” Loisel explained to <a href="https://7news.com.au/politics/body-language-expert-reveals-the-subtle-sign-you-missed-when-albanese-met-chinas-president-c-8872610" target="_blank" rel="noopener">7News</a>. “As a leader, Xi uses several tactics to assert his dominance when shaking hands during meet and greets and photo opportunities.” Loisel said by choosing to stand out on the left with “his hand thrust out first”, Xi is able to “upset the balance of power”. “By orientating his body to the left away from Anthony Albanese, Xi restricts Albanese’s movement and forces him into a submissive position,” she said. “In contrast, this position allows Xi to project an air of confidence, standing in an open, unrestricted pose directly facing the camera." “This handshake is an attempt to assert dominance, get the upper hand and upset the balance of power quite literally forcing the receiver, in this case Albanese, into a submissive position.” The image of the two leaders sparked further conversation online, with some pointing out where Xi “always” stands for photos with other leaders. “This is why (check where Xi always stands for pictures),” one Twitter user posted along with a series of images of Xi standing on the left. At the meeting, China’s $20 billion trade sanctions on Australia, detention of Australian citizens and relationship with Russia were discussed. The pair also discussed climate change and Albanese urged Xi to maintain the status quo when it comes to the status of Taiwan. Albanese said both leaders spoke honestly with each other about these issues. “We have big differences to manage, but we’re always going to be better off when we have dialogue and are able to talk constructively and respectfully, but also honestly, about what those differences are,” he said after the meeting. “(Australia) will cooperate where we can, disagree where we must and act in the national interest.” Image credits: Getty Images

Body

"Zero regrets": Hugh Sheridan reveals secret marriage

Hugh Sheridan has revealed they were married to a well-known entertainer for nine years but the pair opted to keep the relationship a secret. The 37-year-old actor, who is non-binary and uses they/them pronouns, appeared on Jessica Rowe's Big Talk Show podcast, and revealed their past relationship. Hugh did not want to reveal their former partner’s name but said the pair tied the knot on July 11, 2011 and were married for nine years. “I can't say their name because they were in the same industry, so. Couldn't really be specific about that, but I was married,” Hugh said. “We were solidly together for about seven years and then the last couple of years we were travelling a lot and it got too hard and, but we're still very good friends.” Hugh confessed that close family and friends knew about the marriage but they decided to keep it private from the public. “I was finding out if you don't speak out about your private life, people can assume that you're ashamed or that you've got some sort of an agenda or that you are denying other people their self expression by not talking about it.” Hugh and their ex officially got divorced a couple of years ago and revealed they are “very single right now”. “I am definitely single. I can confirm that right now,” Hugh said. The news comes just months after Hugh announced their split from fiancé Kurt Roberts after just eight months. In an Instagram post, the actor reminisced about their good times and that it was time to move on. “In retrospect, having a first public relationship, that public, that fast, might’ve been too much pressure on us,” they wrote. “Maybe it was COVID or quarantines or us working to (sic) hard (I take the blame for full responsibility for the working hours), maybe it’s dads death or all the above. “The point is Kurt is incredibly kind, someone who is earnestly caring and helped me through a very tough time. “Transparency is what I promised you all. For now we didn’t make it, but we tried very, very hard, I’m so sorry for us that it wasn’t easy and I’m sorry for the added pressure. “Lots learned, the heartache is heavy, but zero regrets for the greatest love.” Image: Instagram

Relationships

Sustainable aviation fuels – is Australia being left behind?

Some solutions in renewable energy are relatively easy. Solar panels on roofs for example, or battery powered cars. But our obsession with air travel is significantly harder to decarbonise. Batteries are too heavy except on very short flights, and other zero carbon solutions in aviation are few and far between. Without removing air travel altogether, the next best thing is something called ‘sustainable aviation fuels’ or SAFs. While many other countries are ramping up their SAF production and already mixing it in with traditional fuels, Australia is being left behind. “It’s a shame if Qantas meets its 10 per cent sustainable aviation fuel target in 2030 by just buying it offshore,” said Qantas CEO Alan Joyce earlier this year. “That would be terrible outrage in my mind, and it’s a terrible dropping of the ball in Australia.” <h2>What is sustainable aviation fuel?</h2> SAFs are lower carbon fuels. They can be made of either biomass like waste oil or alcohol – called biofuels, or built chemically, brick-by-brick from carbon dioxide and green hydrogen – called e-fuels. Biofuels particularly are not a zero-carbon alternative, but they are markedly better than traditional fossil fuel-based jet fuel. These fuels can be used just by themselves – called 100% SAF-powered – and they have very similar chemistry to traditional fossil jet fuel so they’re just as effective. The problem though is the cost. They’re up to four times as expensive as traditional jet fuel, and around the world there’s just not that much of it on the market – less than 1% of jet fuel available. “Aviation fuels represent about 7-8% of all fuel consumption I believe, and of course in a country like Australia it’s an even bigger part of our liquid fuel consumption,” Lars Nielsen, a professor at the Australian Institute of Bioengineering and Nanotechnology, told Cosmos. “A very large part of the cost of flying is the aviation fuel. Nobody’s jumping to pay more for flying to Europe, therefore, it’s market demand. Are the customers willing to pay the extra price that would be involved with it?” As we decarbonise other areas of emissions – like electricity, transport and agriculture – aviation emissions as a percentage of total emissions are likely to skyrocket. While we could lower our reliance on flying (a small but growing habit), or discover completely zero carbon solutions for aviation, working out how to make SAFs sustainable and cost effective is important. Nielsen has worked with SAF in the past, as part of a project called the Queensland Sustainable Aviation Fuel Initiative. The group was trying to work out if three different sources of biofuels – sugar cane crop, algae, and a drought resistant tree called pongamia – could be made cost efficient compared to traditional fossil based jet fuels. “Whenever the prices of jet fuel go high, people start getting interested,” he says. “The only thing that could happen at a reasonable speed was sugar to fuel. But even then, we could see the prices were not competitive [even though] it’s technically very feasible.” <h2>International Jet Fuel</h2> Despite these problems, companies have started creating SAFs and selling them to aviation companies around the world. Heathrow for example is the largest major airport user of SAFs. This is partially due to a government mandate requiring 10% of jet fuel be SAF by 2030, and a priority to have at least 5 commercial-scale SAF plants under construction in the UK by 2025. This is on top of Heathrow airport putting in place SAF incentives earlier this year. In the US, the government has launched the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge to reduce the cost, enhance the sustainability, and expand the production and use of SAF. United Airlines has used over five million gallons at Los Angeles International Airport, while JetBlue has signed a ten-year uptake agreement to receive at least 670 million gallons of blended SAF to its three New York area airports – JFK, La Guardia, and Newark. But there have already been some kinks in the system, particularly with first generation biofuels. “What was really quite disastrous is that in 2005 Europe committed to using biodiesel. Of course, biodiesel manufacturers in Europe found out the cheapest oil source we have is palm oil,” Nielson said. “It expanded quite significantly the amount of biodiesel incorporated.” Unfortunately, a report in 2016 found that Europe’s switch might have increased greenhouse gas emissions. They reported that emissions from biodiesel are more than three times higher than those from conventional diesel engines when indirect effects are considered. The EU has now committed to phasing out these ‘first generation biofuels’ by 2030, but it highlights that not all sustainable fuels are equal. <h2>Australia is being left behind</h2> Meanwhile, in Australia we have barely made it into first-generation biofuels. The Queensland Sustainable Fuel Initiative shut down in the early 2010s, and there hasn’t been much traction since. This is both in getting the SAF into planes, as well as creating the fuel in Australia. Having a SAF industry in Australia would create jobs, potentially use waste products like used fry oil, as well as lower the emissions getting the fuel shipped halfway across the world. There have been a few toes dipped into the water in the past few years. In 2017 Virgin Australia announced a trial to add SAF through Brisbane Airport’s fuel supply system. It finished up in 2018, after being used in 195 flights from Brisbane. However, since the completion of the trial, there has been no other SAF incorporated into Australia’s jet fuel supply. Despite Virgin committing to net zero emissions by 2050, there’s currently no concrete plans for SAF to be used in their planes. Instead, they are prioritising modernising planes, lowering operational efficiencies, ground emissions, waste management and expanding the carbon offsetting programs. “Virgin Australia continues to work proactively with government and industry to establish a program for the viable commercial production of sustainable aviation fuel here in Australia,” a Virgin Australia Spokesperson told Cosmos in a statement. In March this year Qantas announced a Climate Action Plan where they pledged 10% SAF by 2030, and 60% by 2050. They also invested $50 million dollars in domestic production of SAF. Currently, the only SAF being used in the Qantas fleet is from the Heathrow Airport, but they’ve agreed to purchase SAF for its operations from California from 2025. In April, the Queensland government announced the first commercial sustainable aviation fuel biorefinery in Australia, which is hoping to provide 350 million litres of sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel once it’s up and running. We might be waiting a while though – construction isn’t set to start until 2023, and the company behind the facility – Oceania Biofuels – has suggested that operations won’t begin until at least 2025. With the government’s 35% reduction in emissions by 2030, and net zero by 2050, working out how to create and incorporate SAFs to meet demand needs to be a priority. The previous government released a ‘bioenergy roadmap’ back in November last year, however the report has almost no commitments and limited funding for SAFs. Currently the Albanese government is still in the planning stages of creating any SAF initiatives. “The Minister for Transport has already outlined her intention to form a Jet Zero-style council to work across the aviation sector to help co-ordinate ongoing work to drive down aviation emissions,” a spokesperson for the Minister for Infrastructure and Transport, Catherine King, told Cosmos. “In addition, our upcoming Aviation White Paper will consider as a priority how to maximise the aviation sector’s contribution to achieving net zero carbon emissions, including through sustainable aviation fuel and emerging technologies. “The Minister is also establishing a unit in the department to work across government and with industry to drive down domestic transport sector emissions.” This article originally appeared on <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/sustainable-aviation-fuels-is-australia-being-left-behind/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cosmosmagazine.com</a> and was written by Jacinta Bowler. Image: Shutterstock

Travel Trouble

We may be underestimating just how bad carbon-belching SUVs are for the climate – and for our health

Australia’s love for fuel-hungry and fuel-inefficient SUVs is hampering our ability to bring transport emissions down. SUVs make up half of all new car sales last year, a National Transport Commission <a href="https://www.ntc.gov.au/light-vehicle-emissions-intensity-australia" target="_blank" rel="noopener">report</a> revealed this week – up from a quarter of all sales a decade ago. As a result, the carbon emitted by all new cars sold in Australia dropped only 2% in 2021, the report found. Sales of battery electric vehicles tripled last year, but still make up just 0.23% of all cars and light commercial vehicles on our roads. In internationally peer-reviewed <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_5ccb87ff39e545809bd1f92872e3069a.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">research</a> earlier this year, we measured the emissions of five SUVs driving around Sydney, and our findings suggest the situation may actually be worse than the new report finds. The National Transport Commission’s numbers are based on the “New European Drive Cycle” (NEDC) emissions test. Our research found the real-world emissions of SUVs are, on average, about 30% higher than the NEDC values. This means we are not reducing fleet average emissions by a few percent per year, but actually probably increasing them by a few percent every year. <h2>What the report found</h2> The transport sector is responsible for <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/national-inventory-report-2020-volume-1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">almost 20% of Australia’s emissions</a>, ranking third behind the electricity and agriculture sector. The first year of the COVID pandemic only reduced transport carbon dioxide emissions by about 7%, compared to 2019 emission levels. Overall, Australia’s pride in carbon-belching transport is evident by the fact transport CO₂ emissions have risen 14% between 2005 and 2020. SUVs are generally larger and heavier than other passenger cars, which means they need quite a bit more energy and fuel per kilometre of driving when compared with smaller, lighter cars. Although SUV sales are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/aug/03/ban-suv-adverts-to-meet-uk-climate-goals-report-urges" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rising globally</a>, the Australian fleet is unique due to its large portion of SUVs in the on-road fleet, often with four-wheel-drive capability. According to the National Transport Commission report, sales of four-wheel-drives and utes surged by more than 43,000 in 2021, while large SUV sales rose by around 25,000. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> Wild trend over the last decade of Australians shifting to bigger vehicles. "SUVs represented 25 per cent of total sales in 2011, they had increased to over half (53 per cent) of total sales in 2021." <a href="https://t.co/pCm0ASFYKd">pic.twitter.com/pCm0ASFYKd</a> — Michael Mazengarb (@MichaelM_ACT) <a href="https://twitter.com/MichaelM_ACT/status/1570228921081409538?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 15, 2022</a></blockquote> Rapidly shifting to electric cars is an important way to bring emissions down. But the report found in 2021, just 2.8% of Australia’s car sales were electric. Compare this to 17% in Europe, 16% in China and 5% in the United States. In Australia, there is still no option to buy an electric ute, and electric vehicles remain <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-labors-new-tax-cut-on-electric-vehicles-wont-help-you-buy-one-anytime-soon-187847" target="_blank" rel="noopener">prohibitively expensive</a>. <h2>Measuring SUV emissions in Sydney</h2> There are a <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_041d08e4653743f5a4416f79fe1dbc13.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">range of methods</a> scientists use to measure vehicle emissions. One popular method worldwide uses so-called “on-board portable emission monitoring systems”. These systems are effective because they enable second-by-second emissions testing under a variety of real-world driving conditions on the road. On the other hand, the New European Drive Cycle (NEDC) emissions test is conducted in the laboratory. It was also developed in the early 1970s and reflects unrealistic driving behaviour, because test facilities at the time could not deal with significant changes in speed. We fitted five SUVs with a portable emission monitoring system and drove them a little over 100 kilometres around Sydney in various situations, such as in the city and on the freeway. We then compared our measurements with the <a href="https://www.greenvehicleguide.gov.au/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Green Vehicle Guide</a> – the national guide to vehicle fuel consumption and environmental performance, which is also based on the NEDC test. Our measurements of fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions were consistently higher. This varied from <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-to-new-fuel-efficiency-rules-is-filled-with-potholes-heres-how-australia-can-avoid-them-188814" target="_blank" rel="noopener">16% to 65% higher than NEDC values</a>, depending on the actual car and driving conditions. On average, real-world fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions were both 27% higher than NEDC values. Importantly, this gap has increased substantially from <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_00dcaa41d8d046d3a7b84a65a2135bb7.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">about 10% in 2008</a>. Indeed, <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_00dcaa41d8d046d3a7b84a65a2135bb7.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous research</a> from 2019 found fleet average greenhouse gas emissions for new Australian cars and SUVs has probably been increasing by 2-3% percent per year since 2015, rather than the reported annual reduction by, for instance, the National Transport Commission. This detailed analysis showed a sustained increase in vehicle weight and a shift to the sale of more four-wheel-drive cars (in other words, SUVs) are probably the main factors contributing to this change. <h2>More bad news for SUVs</h2> <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_041d08e4653743f5a4416f79fe1dbc13.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">We also recently</a> summarised the results of various emission measurement campaigns conducted in Australia and compared them with international studies. These include results from a study of vehicle emissions in a tunnel, and a study of vehicle emissions measured on the road with remote sensing. We found modern diesel SUVs and cars or diesel light commercial vehicles (such as utes) in Australia and New Zealand have relatively high emissions of nitrogen oxides and soot – both important air pollutants. <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/1/254" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Around 2,600 deaths</a> are attributed to fine-particle air pollution in Australia each year. Transport and industrial activities (such as mining) are the main sources of this. And in 2015, an <a href="https://nespurban.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/CAULRR06_SubmissionFuelQualityStandardsAct2000_Mar2017.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">estimated 1,715 deaths</a> were attributed to vehicle exhaust emissions – 42% more than the road toll that year. The <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_fc46b0a0b8ec45a0ae1ab01499e145d4.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">remote sensing emissions data</a> suggest 1% of one to two-year-old diesel SUVs and 2% of one-to-two year old diesel light commercial vehicles have issues with their particulate filters, leading to high soot emissions. These percentages are high when compared with a <a href="https://ee.ricardo.com/news/remote-sensing-demonstrating-diesel-particulate-f" target="_blank" rel="noopener">similar study</a> conducted in the United Kingdom, which could not find any clear evidence of filter issues. <h2>Three ways to move forward</h2> Ever increasing SUVs sales are a drag on successfully reducing Australia’s total greenhouse gas emissions. So what should we do? Of course there are several things to consider, but in terms of fuel efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions, we believe there are three main points. First, we need to make sure we have realistic fuel use and emissions data. This means the National Transport Commission and Green Vehicle Guide should stop using the NEDC values and shift to more realistic emissions data. We acknowledge this is not a simple matter and it requires a lot more testing. Second, <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/6/3444" target="_blank" rel="noopener">we need to</a> electrify transport as fast as we can, wherever we can. This is crucial, but not the whole solution. To ensure Australia meets its net-zero emissions target, we also need to seriously consider energy and fuel efficiency in transport. This could be by promoting the sales of smaller and lightweight vehicles, thereby optimising transport for energy efficiency. In all of this, it will be essential for car manufacturers to take responsibility for their increasing contributions to climate change. From this perspective, they should move away from marketing profitable fossil-fueled SUVs that clog up our roads, and instead offer and promote lighter, smaller and electric vehicles. This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-may-be-underestimating-just-how-bad-carbon-belching-suvs-are-for-the-climate-and-for-our-health-190743" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>. Image: Shutterstock

Travel Trouble

Labor’s climate change bill is set to become law – but 3 important measures are missing

Labor’s climate change bill was <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/climate-bill-all-but-certain-after-pocock-reiterates-support-20220906-p5bftz" target="_blank" rel="noopener">poised</a> to pass the Senate after the government agreed to <a href="https://www.davidpocock.com.au/climate_bills_and_jobs_skills_consultation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">amendments</a> proposed by independent senator David Pocock to improve accountability and transparency. <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Results/Result?bId=r6885" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The law</a> would set a national emissions target for 2030 and define a process to ratchet it up over time, as well as enshrining the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050. The independent <a href="https://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate Change Authority</a> will recommend future targets. These are sound and useful elements and will serve Australia’s climate policymaking well. Yet three important elements are not in the bill: a long-term roadmap, securing the future of the Climate Change Authority, and measures for a proper national conversation on our journey to net-zero emissions. And the 43% emissions reduction target should be considered only a starting point. <h2>Is 43% emissions reduction enough?</h2> The bill mandates that Australia reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 43% by 2030, compared to 2005 levels. Labor took that target to the federal election and has been unwilling to negotiate on it since winning office. <div data-id="17"> </div> Is a 43% reduction in Australia’s emissions adequate in the context of the Paris Agreement? There is no single objective yardstick for which country should do how much towards a global goal. And the trajectory of global emissions after 2030 – as well as before – matters greatly for longer-term global warming. But an assessment is nevertheless possible, and it suggests that strengthening the target, perhaps by a lot, would be appropriate. Emissions reductions <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2022/04/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_PressRelease_English.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">in this broad range</a> are what’s needed globally to limit warming to 2℃ compared to pre-industrial levels. But high-income, high-emitting countries – Australia prominent among them – are rightfully expected to reduce their carbon footprint more quickly than developing countries, or countries where the economy is already relatively low-carbon. What’s more, the effort needed by Australia to meet the 43% target is less than that required by many other countries. This is due to <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/australias-emissions-projections-2021" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reductions</a> in emissions from the land use and forestry sector more than a decade ago, and because we have <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/p/een/camaaa/2021-78.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lots of opportunities</a> to cut emissions easily. <a href="https://ccep.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/uploads/ccep_crawford_anu_edu_au/2021-10/afr_energy-climate_keynote_jotzo_oct2021.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Big further reductions</a> can be made by accelerating the shift from coal to renewables, better energy efficiency, electrifying transport, and cleaner processes in industry and agriculture. An Australian reduction of the present order is definitely incompatible with limiting global warming to 1.5℃ – the global aspiration for limiting climate change. And it would be a contortion to argue it’s somehow in line with “well below 2℃”, the Paris Agreement’s <a href="https://www.climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au/files/site1/docs/%5Bmi7%3Ami7uid%5D/ClimateTargetsPanelReport.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">long-term goal</a>. All that said, a 43% emission reduction target improves a lot on the previous government’s target. And enshrining it in law sends an important message. It makes zero-emissions options much more investable, and signals internationally that Australia is back on climate change action. <h2>A trajectory to net-zero</h2> Attention will soon shift to Australia’s 2035 emissions target. The bill commits the <a href="https://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate Change Authority</a> to recommend that target, and new targets every five years from then on. If the government of the day does not accept that advice, it will need to explain its dissent to parliament. That is good process. But Australia also needs to plot a forward trajectory beyond the next five-year period, because the investments that matter most are made on longer timescales. Such “roadmapping” would shed light on questions such as: <ul> <li> what are the indicative targets for 2040 and beyond, on the way to net-zero emissions? </li> <li> what might be the balance between remaining greenhouse gas emissions and removing emissions from the atmosphere, whether through forests and land-based carbon, or technological solutions? </li> </ul> The Climate Change Authority may choose to do such an analysis, mapping out scenarios and possible trajectories. But such advice would have stronger standing if there was a legal requirement for it. <h2>Securing the Climate Change Authority</h2> The bill puts the Climate Change Authority centre stage, but it doesn’t make sure it will always be properly equipped to do its job. A future government might not like to hear a strong independent voice, and could quieten it by starving it. It’s happened before, following the Abbott government’s attempt to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/dec/08/abbott-government-accused-of-trying-to-set-up-climate-change-talks-for-failure" target="_blank" rel="noopener">abolish</a> the authority. The Climate Change Authority needs to run a deeply inclusive and very extensive consultation process for future recommendations on the target. Not just roundtables and submissions to a website, but a really big effort to take the analysis to groups right across Australian society and take their views into account. Let’s hope this and future governments will give their political backing for an inclusive process, and fund the authority to do so. <h2>A proper national conversation</h2> In any case, Australia needs a national long-term emissions reduction strategy. It should answer questions such as: <ul> <li> what will the shift to net-zero emissions mean for our economy, both nationally and regionally? </li> <li> what needs to be done to prepare for the changes, maximise the upsides and deal with the downsides? </li> </ul> Such a strategy must be much more than just another report based on modelling with some stakeholder discussions along the way. What’s needed is a proper national conversation about how we tackle the transition to net-zero emissions. This would bring out all available information and the many different perspectives, opportunities and vulnerabilities. It requires people coming together to really understand the issues and, where possible, to forge agreement. That conversation should involve all major groups: businesses and business associations, non-government organisations, unions, community leaders, youth groups and so forth. The research sector would provide data and analysis, and the media would make the debate a public one, in many formats and dimensions. Governments at all levels would be involved – but they would not control the process. Some political instincts run against such truly open processes. But they’re essential – and the climate change bill doesn’t directly provide for them. This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-climate-change-bill-is-set-to-become-law-but-3-important-measures-are-missing-190102" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>. Image: Shutterstock

Legal

Warming oceans may force New Zealand’s sperm and blue whales to shift to cooler southern waters

The world’s oceans are absorbing more than <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/climate-issues/ocean-impacts" target="_blank" rel="noopener">90% of the excess heat and energy</a> generated by rising greenhouse gas emissions. But, as the oceans keep warming, rising sea temperatures generate unprecedented cascading effects that include the melting of polar ice, rising seas, marine heatwaves and ocean acidification. This in turn has profound impacts on marine biodiversity and the lives and livelihoods of coastal communities, especially in island nations such as New Zealand. In our latest <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X22007075?via%3Dihub" target="_blank" rel="noopener">research</a>, we focused on great whales – sperm and blue whales in particular. They are crucial for maintaining healthy marine ecosystems, but have limited options to respond to climate change: either adapt, die, or move to stay within optimal habitats. We used mathematical models to predict how they are likely to respond to warming seas by the end of the century. Our results show a clear southward shift for both species, mostly driven by rising temperatures at the sea surface. <h2>Computing the fate of whales</h2> Data on the local abundance of both whales species are <a href="https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v690/p201-217/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">deficient</a>, but modelling provides a powerful tool to predict how their range is likely to shift. We used a <a href="http://macroecointern.dk/pdf-reprints/AraujoNew2007.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">combination of mathematical models</a> (known as correlative species distribution models) to predict the future range shifts of these whale species as a response to three future climate change scenarios of differing severity, as outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IPCC</a>). We applied these models, using the whales’ present distributions, to build a set of environmental “rules” that dictate where each species can live. Using climate-dependent data such as sea-surface temperature and chlorophyll A (a measure of phytoplankton growth), as well as static data such as water depth and distance to shore, we applied these rules to forecast future habitat suitability. We chose a scenario of “<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00177-3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">modest</a>” response to cutting greenhouse gas emissions (the IPCC’s mitigation strategy RCP4.5), which is the most likely given the current policies, and a worst-case scenario (no policy to cut emissions, RCP8.5), assuming the reality will likely be somewhere between the two. Our projections suggest current habitats in the ocean around the North Island may become unsuitable if sea-surface temperatures continue to rise. These range shifts become even stronger with increasing severity of climate change. For sperm whales, which are currently abundant off Kaikōura where they support eco-tourism businesses, the predicted distribution changes are even more evident than for blue whales, depending on the climate change scenario. While our results do not predict an overall reduction in suitable habitat that would lead to local extinctions, the latitudinal range shifts are nevertheless bound to have important ecological consequences for New Zealand’s marine ecosystems and the people who depend on them. <h2>How whales maintain ecosystems</h2> Great whales are marine ecosystem engineers. They modify their habitats (or create new ones), to suit their needs. In fact, these activities create conditions that other species rely on to survive. They engineer their environment on several fronts. By feeding in one place and releasing their faeces in another, whales convey minerals and other nutrients such as nitrogen and iron from the deep water to the surface, as well as across regions. This process, known as a “<a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0013255" target="_blank" rel="noopener">whale pump</a>”, makes these nutrients available for phytoplankton and other organisms to grow. This is very important because phytoplankton contributes about <a href="https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/plankton-revealed" target="_blank" rel="noopener">half of all oxygen to the atmosphere</a> and also captures <a href="https://www.imf.org/Publications/fandd/issues/2019/12/natures-solution-to-climate-change-chami" target="_blank" rel="noopener">about 40% of all released carbon dioxide</a>. By helping the growth of phytoplankton, whales indirectly contribute to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/tiny-plankton-drive-processes-in-the-ocean-that-capture-twice-as-much-carbon-as-scientists-thought-136599" target="_blank" rel="noopener">natural ocean carbon sink</a>. On top of this, each great whale accumulates about <a href="https://www.arcticwwf.org/the-circle/stories/protecting-the-earth-by-protecting-whales/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">33 tonnes of carbon dioxide in their body</a>, which they take to the ocean floor when they die and their carcass sinks. Ultimately, the impact of warming oceans on whale distribution is an additional stress factor on ecosystems already under pressure from wider threats, including acidification, pollution and over-exploitation. <h2>A way forward to help whales</h2> Sperm whales are the largest toothed whales (odontocetes) and deep-diving apex predators. They primarily feed on squid and fish that live near the bottom of the sea. Blue whales are baleen whales (mysticetes) and filter small organisms from the water. They feed at the surface on zooplankton, particularly dense krill schools along coastlines where cold water from the deep ocean rises toward the surface (so-called <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/upwelling.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">upwelling areas</a>). These differences in feeding habits lead to divergent responses to ocean warming. Blue whales show a more distinct southerly shift than sperm whales, particularly in the worst-case scenario, likely because they feed at the surface where ocean warming will be more exacerbated than in the deep sea. Both species have important foraging grounds off New Zealand which may be compromised in the future. Sperm whales are currently occurring regularly off Kaikōura, while blue whales forage in the South Taranaki Bight. Despite these ecological differences, our results show that some future suitable areas around the South Island and offshore islands are common to both species. These regions could be considered sanctuaries for both species to retreat to or expand their habitat in a warming world. This should warrant <a href="https://environment.govt.nz/assets/Publications/Files/Environmental-Report-Card-Marine-Areas-with-Legal-protection_0.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">increased protection of these areas</a>. This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/warming-oceans-may-force-new-zealands-sperm-and-blue-whales-to-shift-to-cooler-southern-waters-188522" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>. Image: Shutterstock

Travel Trouble

Supermarket delivery by robot better for the climate

Along with their <a href="https://twitter.com/historymatt/status/1525776275939418113" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">cult following on social media</a>, autonomous delivery robots travelling on footpaths could be the most climate-friendly way to do your grocery shopping. Around the world, <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/people/will-covid-19-change-our-cities/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">COVID-19 has seen a change</a> in the way people shop for groceries. Instead of driving to the supermarket more people are ordering online for pick-up or home delivery, and even in some places, delivery <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/technology/robotics/drone-delivery-groceries-canberra/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">by drone</a> or robot. In the United States supermarket home delivery services grew 54% between 2019 and 2020. In Australia, Woolworths and Coles experienced <a href="https://theconversation.com/coles-and-woolworths-are-moving-to-robot-warehouses-and-on-demand-labour-as-home-deliveries-soar-166556" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">unprecedented demand.</a> The rapid growth in e-commerce has seen an increased focus on the greenhouse gas emissions associated with the <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/sustainability/to-help-the-environment-should-you-shop-in-store-or-online/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">‘last-mile’ delivery</a>. A study by University of Michigan researchers and the Ford Motor Co modelled the emissions associated with the journey of a 36-item grocery basket from shop to home via a number of alternative transport options. Their study is <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/acs.est.2c02050" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">published</a> in the journal Environmental Science & Technology. “This research lays the groundwork for understanding the impact of e-commerce on greenhouse gas emissions produced by the grocery supply chain,” says the study’s senior author Greg Keoleian<a href="https://seas.umich.edu/research/faculty/greg-keoleian" target="_blank" rel="noopener">,</a> director of the Centre for Sustainable Systems at University of Michigan School for Environment and Sustainability. The researchers modelled 72 different ways the groceries could travel from the warehouse to the customer. Across all options, the results showed ‘last-mile’ transport emissions to be the major source of <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/food-transport-emissions-cost/">supply chain emissions</a>. <div class="newsletter-box"> <div id="wpcf7-f6-p201307-o1" class="wpcf7" dir="ltr" lang="en-US" role="form"> <form class="wpcf7-form mailchimp-ext-0.5.62 spai-bg-prepared init" action="/earth/climate/robot-delivery-better-for-the-climate/#wpcf7-f6-p201307-o1" method="post" novalidate="novalidate" data-status="init"> <input class="wpcf7-form-control wpcf7-text referer-page" name="referer-page" type="hidden" value="https://cosmosmagazine.com/" data-value="https://cosmosmagazine.com/" aria-invalid="false" /> </form> </div> </div> They found the conventional option of driving to the supermarket in a petrol or diesel car to be the most polluting, creating six kilograms of carbon dioxide (CO2). All other choices had lower emissions, with footpath delivery robots the cleanest for the climate, at one kg CO2. A customer who switched to an electric vehicle could halve their emissions. But they could achieve a similar impact on emissions by reducing their shopping frequency. Without buying a new car, households who halved the frequency of supermarket trips reduced emissions by 44%. Keoleian says the study emphasises the “important role consumers can serve in reducing emissions through the use of trip chaining and by making carefully planned grocery orders.” Trip chaining refers to combining grocery shopping with other errands. All home delivery options had lower emissions than in-store shopping – in part due to the efficiencies gained in store operation and transport – with the potential to cut emissions by 22 – 65%. Footpath robots are being trialled in cities across the United States, Europe and China. These four or six wheeled robots carry items like supermarket shopping or retail items over short distances. Most have a delivery range around three kilometres. <figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> <div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper"> <div class="entry-content-asset"> <div class="embed-wrapper"> <div class="inner"> <div class="twitter-tweet twitter-tweet-rendered spai-bg-prepared" style="display: flex; max-width: 500px; width: 100%; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;"><iframe id="twitter-widget-0" class="spai-bg-prepared" style="position: static; visibility: visible; width: 500px; height: 612px; display: block; flex-grow: 1;" title="Twitter Tweet" src="https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?creatorScreenName=CosmosMagazine&dnt=true&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1525776275939418113&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fcosmosmagazine.com%2Fearth%2Fclimate%2Frobot-delivery-better-for-the-climate%2F&sessionId=84ec360f0f0db6f38136f997db6585736d09d60a&siteScreenName=CosmosMagazine&theme=light&widgetsVersion=b7df0f50e1ec1%3A1659558317797&width=500px" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" data-tweet-id="1525776275939418113"></iframe></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </figure> <a>Starship robots</a> is one example. Since launching in 2014, their robots have completed three million autonomous home deliveries in cities across Estonia, the United Kingdom, Finland and the United States.  <img id="cosmos-post-tracker" style="opacity: 0; height: 1px!important; width: 1px!important; border: 0!important; position: absolute!important; z-index: -1!important;" src="https://syndication.cosmosmagazine.com/?id=201307&title=Supermarket+delivery+by+robot+better+for+the+climate" width="1" height="1" />  <div id="contributors"> <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climate/robot-delivery-better-for-the-climate/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">This article</a> was originally published on <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cosmos Magazine</a> and was written by <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/contributor/petra-stock" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Petra Stock</a>. Petra Stock has a degree in environmental engineering and a Masters in Journalism from University of Melbourne. She has previously worked as a climate and energy analyst. Image: Getty Images </div>

Technology

Supervolcanoes: deadly for life, deadly for climate

A collaboration of Australian and Swedish scientists has found that current carbon dioxide (CO2) emission rates are 200 times that of even the most catastrophic ancient supervolcano event. Known as the ‘Great Dying’, that event about 252 million years ago wiped out at least 90% of the species on Earth, and 96% of marine animals. But not all supervolcanic events are linked to mass extinctions. Recent research led by Dr Qiang Jiang, then at Curtin University’s School of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Australia, indicates that some past supervolcanic events involved a slower rate of release of CO2 or less CO2 overall, or both, and that this was unrelated to the size of the eruption. To investigate these ideas, Jiang and team looked at the two largest supervolcanic regions of the past 540 million years – approximately the time at which complex life forms emerged on Earth. The largest, the Ontang Java province, is now split into three pieces around New Zealand and the Solomon Islands, explains Dr Hugo Olierook, study co-author and Research Fellow of Geology at Curtin, with most of it underwater or inaccessible. So the team turned its attention to the second-largest volcanic province, known as the Kerguelen large volcanic province – a body of solidified lava that’s three times the size of France in the southern Indian Ocean. The researchers dated samples collected from Kerguelen using Argon-Argon dating, which indicated an age of around 120 million years. “The new age data revealed that the Kerguelen eruptions were, in fact, active right across the global oceanic anoxic event 120 million years ago,” says Professor Fred Jourdan, Director of the Western Australian Argon Isotope Facility at Curtin. “But while they may have rapidly degraded the environment for marine organisms, it did not lead to a deadly mass extinction.” Armed with powerful microscopes and lasers, the team then looked deep inside the basalt samples for tiny (10-micron diameter) frozen magma blobs known as inclusions and measured the pockets of volatiles – molecules that become gasses easily (water, CO2 and hydrogen sulphide, for instance) – released from the magma blob as it solidified and shrank. When compared to similar gas studies of supervolcanoes associated with mass-extinction events, Jiang and team found that the Kerguelen province emitted at least five times less CO2 and at a rate 30 times slower than volcanic eruptions that wiped out entire life forms. Out of the big five extinction events since animals arose, four have been attributable to supervolcanoes, which deplete oceans of oxygen and cause global climate change on time scales too small for evolutionary adaption of many land and marine animals. Earth does have mechanisms through which carbon is drawn down into oceans, rocks and soils, explains Olierook. “Shells incorporate carbon into their structure, and oceans themselves draw down carbon into ocean beds, but this happens on the order of a few hundreds of thousands of years.” When the rates of CO2 emissions far outpace the drawdown cycle – such as during CO2-rich supervolcanic events, then the balance is upset. So, why are some supervolcanoes rich in CO2? There are a few likely reasons. When hot magma rises to the surface, it can interact with the rock layers it cuts through. In the case of CO2-rich supervolcanoes, Olierook says that the magma has intruded through “organic rich sedimentary basins, heating them up and turning to a sort of peat and coal, the kind of material that easily becomes CO2”. In the case of the two largest supervolcanoes, they “sat in the middle of the ocean. So, there was no really big amount of organic-rich material there,” he says. There is also the possibility that the rising magma itself is carbon-rich – something Olierook hopes to research further in the future. Finally, the research team compared the current rates of CO2 emission with those during the supervolcanic events that resulted in catastrophic mass extinctions. “Alarmingly our calculations also show that we are now currently emitting carbon dioxide 200 times faster than those supervolcanic eruptions that caused the most severe mass extinctions,” says Olierook. While this sounds like bad news all around, it also contains a faint glimmer of hope. “If we’re able to slow down our CO2 emissions now, we will actually see the effects of slowing it down now,” says Olierook. “We are certainly not at the point of having the highest ever CO2 in our atmosphere, yet – there was far more CO2 in the atmosphere, say 100 million years ago. “So, if we can focus on slowing the rate of CO2 emissions down, we could get to a level where our planet can cope with the emitted CO2.” This article originally appeared on <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/supervolcanoes-deadly-life-and-climate/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cosmosmagazine.com</a> and was written by Clare Kenyon. Image: Shutterstock

Travel Trouble

Travelling around the globe might not have to cost the Earth

The last time you booked a flight online, you may have been offered the chance to ‘offset’ the carbon produced by your travel. This is due in part to recognition that the aviation industry is responsible for around 5% of human-made emissions resulting in climate change. The efforts by this sector to respond to its environmental impact can range from switching fuels (from coal to biomass, for instance), more efficient combustion processes (by improving aircraft engines, for example), protecting forests or promoting sustainable development in local communities. Now, in a potentially ground-breaking innovation for long-haul flights, a team of researchers at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zürisch (ETH Zurich) have developed an all-in-one solar-powered tower that’s able to use energy from the Sun’s rays to convert water and carbon dioxide into synthetic fuels. Think: water + carbon dioxide = energy. Sound familiar? Well, it should. It’s what many plants do to make energy for themselves. The ETH Zurich process has a lot in common, really, explains Dr Jessica Allen, a chemical engineer and renewable energy technologies expert at the University of Newcastle. Although in this case, “industrial photosynthesis might be a better term as this particular process doesn’t involve any physiological mechanisms like plants and living material”, says Allen. The proof-of-concept solar tower consists of 169 Sun-tracking panels that reflect and concentrate sunlight into a tower-top solar reactor. Here, energy from the Sun’s rays meets a combination of water, carbon dioxide and a special structure made of ceria (cerium oxide), which is porous and “acts like a filter network, undergoing many reduction-oxidation (also known as redox) reactions”, says Allen. These reaction cycles produce syngas (synthesis gas), which is then converted to liquid fuels such as diesel and kerosene (which is used as jet fuel for long-haul flights) via a well-established process known as the Fischer-Tropsch reaction, which typically occurs in the presence of metal catalysts, temperatures of 150–300°C and pressures of several tens of atmospheres. Much work remains to translate the process to industrial scale. Currently, the energy efficiency of the process is only at 4%, meaning that out of 100 parts of energy available, only four parts are captured in the process. This is something the researchers are keen to push up towards around 15%. According to Allen, that’s still at the low end of the energy efficiency of current solar-to-electricity and solar-to-thermal energy generation. She says that efficiency is crucial when it comes to systems that use land area for solar collection (such as solar panels and the ETH Zurich tower’s reflectors): “A low efficiency will mean a large land area to generate the required fuel.” Where the CO2 comes from is also very important. At present, it’s injected into the system, but the next obvious step is to start capturing it directly from the air. At that point the fuel production process might be considered carbon neutral, as the amount of CO2 captured from the air is the same as the amount released during fuel combustion. Direct-from-air carbon dioxide capture comes at a cost, though. “There is a fairly major energy penalty for doing direct air capture, because it’s quite hard to filter out carbon dioxide from the rest of the gasses,” says Allen. Then there’s the carbon footprint related to the manufacture and production of equipment and materials, but Allen urges a long-term outlook: “In the system that we’re in at the moment there will be an emission penalty for the materials, however, in the long term, we’ll eventually be manufacturing these things using zero emission approaches.” This will make the whole process – and not just the fuel itself – carbon neutral. The average fuel consumption of a Boeing 747 (which are still used as long-haul cargo transport today) is around 4L per second. For a flight of 10 hours, this equates to 144,000L of fuel. In the future, EHT Zurich researchers will work to increase the system’s energy efficiency to 15%, capture more heat in the process and improve the ceria structures in the reactor in addition to capturing CO2 directly from the air. Their long-term aim is to scale the process to an industrial size – in which enough fuel can be produced to truly fly us into a carbon-neutral aviation future. This article originally appeared on <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/science/carbon-neutral-travel-wont-cost-earth/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cosmosmagazine.com</a> and was written by Clare Kenyon. Image: Shutterstock

Travel Trouble

Here are the most effective things you can do to fight climate change

Limiting global warming to 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels requires reaching <a href="https://theconversation.com/net-zero-carbon-neutral-carbon-negative-confused-by-all-the-carbon-jargon-then-read-this-151382">net zero</a> emissions by the middle of this century. This means that, in less than three decades, we need to reverse more than a century of rising emissions and bring annual emissions down to near zero, while balancing out all remaining <a href="https://www.cdp.net/en/articles/climate/how-can-companies-handle-so-called-residual-emissions">unavoidable emissions</a> by actively removing carbon from the atmosphere. To help speed this process as individuals, we’ve got to do everything we can to cut down our use of fossil fuels. But many people <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en/ipsos-perils-perception-climate-change">aren’t aware</a> of the most effective ways to do this. Thankfully, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-key-points-in-the-ipcc-report-on-climate-change-impacts-and-adaptation-178195">latest report</a> by the UN climate change panel <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">IPCC</a> devotes a chapter to all the ways in which changes in people’s behaviour can accelerate the transition to net zero. The chapter includes an analysis of 60 individual actions which can help fight climate change, building on <a href="https://environment.leeds.ac.uk/faculty/news/article/5471/global-study-uncovers-best-ways-to-change-consumption-to-cut-carbon-footprint">research</a> led by Diana Ivanova at the University of Leeds – and to which I contributed. We grouped these actions into three areas: avoiding consumption, shifting consumption and improving consumption (making it more efficient). <h2>What to avoid</h2> By far the most effective things to avoid involve transport. Living <a href="https://theconversation.com/car-ownership-is-likely-to-become-a-thing-of-the-past-and-so-could-public-transport-110550">without a car</a>reduces greenhouse gas emissions by an average of 2 tonnes of CO₂ emissions per person per year, while avoiding a single long distance return flight cuts emissions by an average of 1.9 tonnes. That’s equivalent to driving a <a href="https://www.eea.europa.eu/ims/co2-performance-of-new-passenger">typical EU car</a> more than 16,000km from <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Hamburg/Ulaanbaatar,+Mongolia/@50.3406451,40.6332697,4z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m14!4m13!1m5!1m1!1s0x47b161837e1813b9:0x4263df27bd63aa0!2m2!1d9.9936819!2d53.5510846!1m5!1m1!1s0x5d96925be2b18aab:0xe606927864a1847f!2m2!1d106.9057439!2d47.8863988!3e0">Hamburg, Germany to Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia</a> and back. Since the vast majority of the world’s population do not fly at all – and of those who do, only a <a href="https://www.businesstraveller.com/business-travel/2021/03/31/majority-of-flights-taken-by-a-small-percentage-of-flyers/">small percentage</a> fly frequently – fliers can make very substantial reductions to their carbon footprints with each flight they avoid. <h2>What to shift</h2> But living sustainably is not just about giving things up. Large reductions in emissions can be achieved by shifting to a different way of doing things. Because driving is so polluting, for example, shifting to <a href="https://theconversation.com/12-best-ways-to-get-cars-out-of-cities-ranked-by-new-research-180642">public transport</a>, walking or cycling can make an enormous change, with <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-transformed-a-london-borough-into-a-game-to-get-fewer-people-travelling-by-car-heres-what-happened-171035">added benefits</a> for your personal health and local air pollution levels. Likewise, because of the high emissions associated with <a href="https://theconversation.com/meat-eating-is-a-big-climate-issue-but-isnt-getting-the-attention-it-deserves-170855">meat and dairy</a> – particularly those produced by farming sheep and cows – shifting towards more sustainable diets can substantially reduce your carbon footprint. A <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/veganism-environmental-impact-planet-reduced-plant-based-diet-humans-study-a8378631.html">totally vegan diet</a> is the most effective way to do this, but sizeable savings can be made simply by <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-ways-the-meat-on-your-plate-is-killing-the-planet-76128">switching</a> from beef and lamb to pork and chicken. <h2>What to improve</h2> Finally, the things we do already could be made more efficient by improving <a href="https://theconversation.com/oceans-and-their-largest-inhabitants-could-be-the-key-to-storing-our-carbon-emissions-180901">carbon</a> efficiency at home: for example by using insulation and <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-space-for-a-heat-pump-heres-how-your-whole-street-could-get-off-gas-heating-180005">heat pumps</a>, or producing your own renewable energy by installing <a href="https://theconversation.com/solar-panels-on-half-the-worlds-roofs-could-meet-its-entire-electricity-demand-new-research-169302">solar panels</a>. Switching from a combustion car to an electric one – ideally a battery EV, which generates <a href="https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2014/03/f9/thomas_fcev_vs_battery_evs.pdf">much larger reductions</a> in emissions than hybrid or fuel cell EVs – will make your car journeys more efficient. Plus, its effect on emissions will increase as time goes by and the amount of electricity generated by renewables grows. In the race to net zero, <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-breakdown-even-if-we-miss-the-1-5-c-target-we-must-still-fight-to-prevent-every-single-increment-of-warming-178581">every tonne of CO₂</a> really does count. If more of us take even a few of these suggestions into account, we’re collectively more likely to be able to achieve the ambitious goals set out in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-agreement-is-working-as-intended-but-weve-still-got-a-long-way-to-go-173478">Paris climate agreement</a>. Of course, these changes will need to be backed by major political action on sustainability at the same time. If we’re to use less fossil fuel energy, the use of fossil fuels needs to be either restricted or made more expensive. The social consequences of this need to be carefully managed so that <a href="https://carbonpricingdashboard.worldbank.org/what-carbon-pricing">carbon pricing schemes</a> can benefit people on lower incomes: which can happen if <a href="https://www.mcc-berlin.net/en/research/policy-briefs/taxreform.html">revenues are redistributed</a> to take the financial burden off poorer households. But there’s a whole lot more that governments could do to help people to live more sustainably, such as providing better, safer public transport and “<a href="https://theconversation.com/from-walking-to-cycling-how-we-get-around-a-city-is-a-gender-equality-issue-new-research-175014">active travel</a>” infrastructure (such as bike lanes and pedestrian zones) so that people have alternatives to driving and flying. There’s no avoiding the fact that if political solutions are to address climate change with the urgency our global situation requires, these solutions will limit the extent to which we can indulge in carbon-intensive behaviours. More than anything, we must vote into power those prepared to make such tough decisions for the sake of our planet’s future. Image credits: Getty Images This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/here-are-the-most-effective-things-you-can-do-to-fight-climate-change-183555" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>.

Travel Tips

Global emissions almost back to pre-pandemic levels after unprecedented drop in 2020, new analysis shows

Global carbon dioxide emissions have bounced back after COVID-19 restrictions and are likely to reach close to pre-pandemic levels this year, <a href="https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2021-386/">our analysis</a> released today has found. The troubling finding comes as world leaders meet at the COP26 climate talks in Glasgow in a last-ditch bid to keep dangerous global warming at bay. The analysis was undertaken by the <a href="https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget">Global Carbon Project</a>, a consortium of scientists from around the world who produce, collect and analyse global greenhouse gas information. The fast recovery in CO₂ emissions, following last year’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-emissions-are-down-by-an-unprecedented-7-but-dont-start-celebrating-just-yet-151757">sharp drop</a>, should come as no surprise. The world’s strong economic rebound has created a surge in demand for energy, and the global energy system is still heavily dependent on fossil fuels. Most concerning is the long-term upward trends of CO₂ emissions from oil and gas, and this year’s growth in coal emissions, which together are far from trending towards net-zero by 2050. <img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429724/original/file-20211102-28770-1s1j889.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" alt="people seated around U-shaped table" /> The troubling findings come as world leaders meet at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow. Evan Vucci/AP <h2>The global emissions picture</h2> Global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels dropped by 5.4% in 2020, compared to the previous year. But they are set to increase by about 4.9% above 2020 levels this year, reaching 36.4 billion tonnes. This brings them almost back to 2019 levels. We can expect another 2.9 billion tonnes of CO₂ emissions this year from the net effect of everything we do to the land, including deforestation, degradation and re-vegetation. This brings us to a total of 39.4 billion tonnes of CO₂ to be emitted by the end of this year. The fast growth in emissions matches the corresponding large increase in energy demand as the global economy opens up, with the help of <a href="https://www.f4b-initiative.net/post/majority-of-17-2-trillion-covid-stimulus-packages-doing-more-harm-than-good-to-environment">US$17.2 trillion</a> in economic stimulus packages around the world. CO₂ emissions from all fossil fuel types (coal, oil and natural gas) grew this year, with emissions from coal and natural gas set to grow more in 2021 than they fell in 2020. Emissions from global coal use were declining before the pandemic hit in early 2020 but they surged back this year. Emissions from global gas use have returned to the rising trend seen before the pandemic. CO₂ emissions from global oil use remain well below pre-pandemic levels but are expected to increase in coming years as road transport and aviation recover from COVID-related restrictions. <a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429469/original/file-20211031-17-1pa5f0i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429469/original/file-20211031-17-1pa5f0i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" alt="" /></a> Global fossil CO₂ emissions. Source: Global Carbon Project, https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget <h2>Nations leading the emissions charge</h2> Emissions from China have recovered faster than other countries. It’s among the few countries where emissions grew in 2020 (by 1.4%) followed by a projected growth of 4% this year. Taking these two years together, CO₂ emissions from China in 2021 are projected to be 5.5% above 2019 levels, reaching 11.1 billion tonnes. China accounted for 31% of global emissions in 2020. Coal emissions in China are estimated to grow by 2.4% this year. If realised, it would match what was thought to be China’s peak coal emissions in 2013. India’s CO₂ emissions are projected to grow even faster than China’s this year at 12.6%, after a 7.3% fall last year. Emissions this year are set to be 4.4% above 2019 levels – reaching 2.7 billion tonnes. India accounted for 7% of global emissions in 2020. Emissions from both the US and European Union are projected to rise 7.6% this year. It would lead to emissions that are, respectively, 3.7% and 4.2% below 2019 levels. US and EU, respectively, accounted for 14% and 7% of global emissions in 2020. Emissions in the rest of the world (including all international transport, particularly aviation) are projected to rise 2.9% this year, but remain 4.2% below 2019 levels. Together, these countries represent 59% of global emissions. <a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429471/original/file-20211031-75805-1jh07jf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429471/original/file-20211031-75805-1jh07jf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" alt="" /></a> Regional fossil CO₂ emissions 2019-2021. Source: Global Carbon Project, https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget <h2>The remaining carbon budget</h2> The relatively large changes in annual emissions over the past two years have had no discernible effect in the speed at which CO₂ accumulates in the atmosphere. CO₂ concentrations, and associated global warming, are driven by the accumulation of greenhouse gases – particularly CO₂ – since the beginning of the industrial era. This accumulation has accelerated in recent decades. To stop further global warming, global CO₂ emissions must stop or reach net-zero – the latter meaning that any remaining CO₂ emissions would have to be compensated for by removing an equivalent amount from the atmosphere. Carbon budgets are a useful way of measuring how much CO₂ can be emitted for a given level of global warming. In our latest analysis, we updated the carbon budget outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (<a href="https://templatelab.com/climate-change-report-2021/">IPCC</a>) in August this year. From the beginning of 2022, the world can emit an additional 420 billion tonnes of CO₂ to limit global warming to 1.5℃, or 11 years of emissions at this year’s rate. To limit global warming to 2℃, the world can emit an additional 1,270 billion tonnes of CO₂ – or 32 years of emissions at the current rate. <a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429886/original/file-20211103-19-fl69o8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429886/original/file-20211103-19-fl69o8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" alt="" /></a> The remaining carbon budgets to limit warming to 1.5℃ and 2℃. Updated from IPCC 2021. Source: Global Carbon Project, https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget These budgets are the compass to net-zero emissions. Consistent with the pledge by <a href="https://eciu.net/netzerotracker">many countries</a> to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, CO₂ emissions need to decline by 1.4 billion tonnes each year, on average. This is an amount comparable to the drop during 2020, of 1.9 billion tonnes. This fact highlights the extraordinary challenge ahead and the need to increase short- and long-term commitments to drive down global emissions.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170866/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/pep-canadell-16541">Pep Canadell</a>, Chief research scientist, Climate Science Centre, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere; and Executive Director, Global Carbon Project, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/csiro-1035">CSIRO</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/corinne-le-quere-315624">Corinne Le Quéré</a>, Royal Society Research Professor of Climate Change Science, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-east-anglia-1268">University of East Anglia</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/glen-peters-114835">Glen Peters</a>, Research Director, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/center-for-international-climate-and-environment-research-oslo-707">Center for International Climate and Environment Research - Oslo</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/pierre-friedlingstein-903247">Pierre Friedlingstein</a>, Chair, Mathematical Modelling of Climate, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-exeter-1190">University of Exeter</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/robbie-andrew-422668">Robbie Andrew</a>, Senior Researcher, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/center-for-international-climate-and-environment-research-oslo-707">Center for International Climate and Environment Research - Oslo</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rob-jackson-213135">Rob Jackson</a>, Professor, Department of Earth System Science, and Chair of the Global Carbon Project, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/stanford-university-890">Stanford University</a> This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-emissions-almost-back-to-pre-pandemic-levels-after-unprecedented-drop-in-2020-new-analysis-shows-170866">original article</a>. Image: Shutterstock

Travel Trouble

"We are back to zero": Family speak out after son’s fatal sting

A 14-year-old boy who was stung by a box jellyfish in Far North Queensland has died. Mark Angelo Ligmayo was stung on Saturday at Eimeo Beach in the Mackay region and was taken to Mackay Hospital in a critical condition. He went into cardiac arrest on the beach and succumbed to his injuries about an hour after he arrived at the hospital. A witness told the <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/mackay/eimeo-beach-teenager-suffers-reported-cardiac-arrest-after-jellyfish-sting/news-story/d91418b68df167610cd2ecf652b2b5c6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Daily Mercury</a> that she saw him make it to shore with an “unreadable expression on his face” and his legs “covered in tentacles”. The publication also reported that the screams erupted on the beach from parents calling for their children to get out of the water while others rushed to help him. “We were there as he exited the water, quickly after that he was semi-conscious,” Eimeo Surf Life Saving Club president Ross Gee told the outlet. “We had a defib on him the whole time, he never lost his pulse, there was shallow breathing. “We doused him with approximately 30 litres of vinegar, all the vinegar on the beach.” The beach has been closed until further notice and the public has been urged to stay out of the water. Eimeo Surf Life Saving Club shared their condolences for the family on Sunday, and thanked the members of the public who assisted their volunteer lifesavers in helping Mark Angelo. <iframe style="border: none; overflow: hidden;" src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Feimeo.slsc%2Fposts%2F3137194476599351&show_text=true&width=500" width="500" height="725" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe> Agnes Guinumtad, Mark Angelo’s mother, told <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/mackay/mackay-fatal-box-jellyfish-sting-parents-tribute-to-14yearold-boy/news-story/14d5421b775d48f88080528702a266e3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Mercury</a> the family had been excited to spend the day at the beach together three months after she, Mark Angelo, and his sister joined her husband in starting a new life in Australia. Nick Guinumtad came to Australia nearly a decade ago, working as a boilermaker and taking every opportunity to visit his family in the Philippines, where they waited for visas to join him. After Covid delayed their reunion, they were reunited in December last year and began to settle in. “I could see my son’s face, and I could see the pain,” Mrs Guinumtad said of the moment she saw lifeguards and bystanders attempt to save her son’s life. “I kept praying and praying, I didn’t stop praying. I prayed that he would say something.” With the death of Mark Angelo, his family said they don’t know where to go from here. “We are back to zero,” Mr Guinumtad told the outlet. Mrs Guinumtad has expressed her wish to take her son’s body back to the Philippines so that her parents, who often raised him while she worked, can say a final goodbye. “I don’t know the process, I don’t even know where to start,” she said. The family has asked for anyone in the community who may know how to help to reach out and have started a <a href="https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-guinumtad-family-bring-their-son-home" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GoFundMe</a> to raise funds to take him home. They have also thanked the lifeguards and bystanders who worked so hard to save their son and others who cared for their daughter while they went with him to the hospital. Mark Angelo’s death marks the third fatal box jellyfish sting since 2006. Large box jellyfish - which are regarded as one of the world’s most venomous animals - have caused more than 70 fatalities in Australia, according to Queensland Health. “If you don’t have a protective suit and you know there could be stingers or jellyfish in the water, just don’t go in,” Queensland Health has previously <a href="https://7news.com.au/news/disaster-and-emergency/deadly-box-jellyfish-sting-kills-queensland-teen-near-mackay-c-5855865" target="_blank" rel="noopener">warned</a>. “It’s also important that people are familiar with resuscitation methods - early resuscitation after major stings from box jellies has saved lives in the past few years.” Image: Nic Guinumtad (Facebook)

Travel Trouble

Free to good home: The house that costs zero dollars but comes with a catch

In a deal that’s almost too good to be true, a four-bedroom Sydney house is free to a good home. But, it comes with a catch: its new owners will need to remove it from the property and find a new patch of land to transport it to. The home, listed on Facebook and <a rel="noopener" href="https://www.gumtree.com.au/s-ad/cronulla/other-real-estate/house-for-removal-free-/1288343408" target="_blank">Gumtree</a>, is sure to gain some interest as property prices continue to skyrocket across the city. In Kirrawee in Sydney’s south, where the home is currently located, the median house price reached $1.3 million in the year ending last September, coming at an 18.2 percent increase on prices from the year prior. In comparison, the new homeowners will only need to pay to remove the home - which can cost <a rel="noopener" href="https://www.smh.com.au/property/news/four-bedroom-house-offered-free-with-just-one-catch-20220117-p59oru.html" target="_blank">around $70,000</a> on top of reconnection to services and plaster setting at the new site. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> Not your usual Facebook marketplace item! Free house - you only need to pay for removal and transport! How does that work out financially? Is that something anyone’s had experience with? Excuse me for being fascinated by any concept that isn’t COVID and/or Djokovic 😂 🏡 <a href="https://t.co/ugD9keuSLV">pic.twitter.com/ugD9keuSLV</a> — Lucy Thackray (@LucyThack) <a href="https://twitter.com/LucyThack/status/1482281605163286530?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 15, 2022</a></blockquote> According to the ad, which has since been shared on Twitter, the home is about 60 years old and comes with two bathrooms, two living spaces, a modern kitchen and a laundry. Homes have been known to sell without the land they stand on, with the home used as the set for The Castle selling for $40,000 at auction in 2017 as a relocatable home. In 2018, another house-only sale made headlines when it was listed for just $5,000 - a much cheaper option compared to the $25,000 it may have cost to demolish. As for the Kirrawee house, the deadline to clear the site is at the end of February, with the home able to be picked up at the start of March. Images: @LucyThack (Twitter), Gumtree

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